MLB Plays from So Cal - July

[play ball]

I haven't had a thread and I am in last in MLB Contest. See if we can get some positive things going. Plays will be from 1, 2, or 3 units.

Wed 7/24 Games

MIN - Pelfrey at LAA - Weaver
MIN 7-10, but 2-1 recent,
LAA 7-5, also 2-1 recent

Both pitchers coming down in ERA.
MIN 17 IP and 15 hit, 2.55 ERA, down to 5.40
LAA 19 IP and 18 hit, 1.89 ERA, down to 3.30

MIN loses when Pelfrey pitches, LAA wins when Weaver pitches.
MIN 2-6 on road with 5.49 era while LAA 5-2 at home with 2.44 ERA.
MIN won in extras last night, so expect LAA to bounceback.

I like LAA, despite the juice.

1) LAA ML -230 for 1 unit

back with later games.

 

[play ball]

Couple Games already started, just posting for my own tracking

OAK-Griffin at HOU-Norris
OAK 11-9, 2-1 recent
HOU 8-12, 1-2 recent

Recent form...
OAK 18 IP and 17 hit, 3.00 ERA, coming down to 3.82
HOU 17 IP and 23 hit, 7.13 ERA, going UP to 3.91

OAK wins when Griffin pitches, HOU loses when anyone pitches.
HOU stole one last night, so expect OAK to bounceback.

I would have made play on OAK, but early start.

CLE - Kazmir at SEA-Saunders
CLE 8-9, 1-2 recent but 3-0 under
SEA 9-11, 3-0 recent but 2-1 over

Both pitchers coming down in ERA
CLE 18 IP and 10 hits, 2.00 ERA down to 4.30 ERA
SEA 19 IP and 20 hits, but only 1.86 ERA down to 4.28 ERA

Both teams lose when these pitchers start.
CLE 2-7 on road with 4.66 ERA while SEA 5-4 at home with 3.11 ERA
interesting that both pitchers in good form, but don't pitch well vs. other team. CLE 10 runs in last 8.1 IP and SEA 14 runs in last 20.1 IP.
SEA won 8 straight and looking to sweep CLE after CLE swept them.

This game reminds me of Cubs/Zona last night, both pitchers in good form, but bad numbers vs. opposing team. Sailed over.

Game starting now, so no play. I have lean to SEA based on H/R split.


TB - Price at BOS - Doubront
TB 5-8, but 2-1 recent and 2-1 to under
BOS 11-6, 3-0 recent and 2-1 to under

Both pitchers coming down in ERA
TB 25 IP and 23 hits, 2.52 era down to 4.03
BOS 20 IP and 13 hits, 1.80 era down to 3.76

TB loses when Price starts and BOS wins when Felix D. pitches.
Felix D quietly allowed 3 runs or less in last 10 starts, 8 of the 10 were 2 runs or less.
TB too many hits, I like consistent BOS and they are at home.

2) BOS ML -105 for 2 units



DET - Sanchez at CWS - Danks
DET 7-9, 1-2 recent with 2-1 to over
CWS 4-7, 1-2 recent with 2-1 to over

Both pitchers are trending slightly up
DET 16 IP and 14 hits, 3.31 ERA up to 2.85
CWS 20 IP and 20 hits, 4.87 ERA up to 4.52

DET 2-7 on road when Sanchez pitches with 3.51 era, but has only allowed 1 run in each of last 2 road starts.
Danks has been rocked by DET to tune of 20 runs in 12.2 IP in last 3 starts, though no Miggy today.

Pass on this game.

 

[Schrute]

I like the facts/writeups

GL playball

 

[bloodhound]

Thanks for the thoughts

GL play ball

 

[play ball]

Thanks Schrute and bloodhound.

Recap of Wed 7/24
1) LAA ML -230 - W, +1 unit
2) BOS ML -105 - L, -2.10 units

1-1, -1.10 units

Thoughts on yesterdays results
OAK/HOU - close game, but right team won. Pitcher who was pitching better and team on bounceback were keys.
CLE/SEA - doesn't appear that H/A is a key for these two. CLE hits LH better and that showed in this battle of lefties. I find it interesting that pitchers in good form, but facing teams that hit them..is leading to overs.
TB/BOS - I could see recent improvement from Price and he continued to get back to last year's form. Both pitchers coming down in era led to under...hmmmm.
DET/CWS - Sanchez is pitching well on road, thats 3 straight good outings. Danks history against DET continues to be poor.

 

[play ball]

THU 7/25 games

PIT - Burnett at WAS - Gio Gonzalez
PIT 7-10, 1-2 recent
WAS 12-8, 2-1 recent

Both pitchers trending down = Under.
PIT 16 IP and 20 hits, 2.76 era down to 3.07
WAS 19 IP and 18 hits, 1.83 era down to 2.89

Both pitchers 2-1 to under recent, so good form. PIT loses when Burnett pitches, WAS wins when Gio pitches.
PIT great numbers vs. WAS, 3 runs in last 4 starts over 31 IP. WAS has been decent vs. PIT, 3 runs or less in 3 starts, 6 runs in 19 IP.

Under looks good here, even with low line. Game already started, so just posting for my own tracking.


Lets get to the early games that haven't started...

SD - Volquez at MIL - Gallardo
SD 8-13, 1-2 recent, but 2-1 to under
MIL 9-12, 2-1 recent, also 2-1 to under

Recent form...
SD 15 IP and 21 hits led to 8.80 era, UP to 5.73 era
MIL 18 IP and 15 hits, 3.44 era, down to 4.58

Both teams lose when these guys take the hill. MIL pitcher showing improvement lately, less hits per ip.
SD has been great at home vs. MIL, but struggled at MIL. MIL pitcher allowed 3 runs or less last 4 times vs. SD.

I get the pitcher with better form and better history for a pretty cheap price? I will take it.

3) MIL ML -140 for 2 units


Yanks - Kuroda at TEX - Holland
Yanks 11-9, 2-1 recent with 3 unders (14-4 to unders on year)
TEX 13-7, 2-1 recent with totals 1-1-1

Both pitchers trending down = under
Yanks 19 IP and 14 hits, 0.95 era down to 2.65 era
TEX 21 IP and 21 hits, 2.91 era down to 3.10 era

Yanks good history vs. TEX, 4 runs in 22.1 IP in last 3 starts. TEX with terrible history, but pitched 2 hit shutout vs. them earlier this year.
Both teams win when these guys pitch. Kuroda not getting any run support. Under is 2-0-1 in this series, no reason to see anything differently here.


4) First Five Yanks/TEX Under 4.0 for 2 units
5) Game Under 8.0 for 1 unit


DET - Verlander at CWS - Peavy (2nd start off DL)
DET 11-10, 1-2 recent with 2-1 overs
CWS 7-5, only 1 recent start and it went over

Recent form...
DET 19 IP and 21 hits, 4.58 era up to 3.69 era
CWS 1 start, 6 ip, 7 hits, 4 runs (2 earned) and 96 pitches

DET lost last start vs. CWS 3 weeks ago, 12 hits in 7 IP and 5 runs, but CWS did all their damage in 8th inning. Before that had been solid for 4 straight. CWS pitcher with awful numbers vs. DET, 19 runs in last 24 IP and 32 hits.

Z has not been sharp, but DET crushes Peavy.Total feels low for 2 pitchers not in good form.

6) DET and CWS Over 7.5 at -120 for 2 units


BOL

 

[play ball]

3-0 for plus 5 units to start the day, surprising that I got sweep in totals, those are usually my trouble spots. I like the direction this is heading.
1 game still pending, thought it was a loss, but Brew have closed to 10-8, after being down 10-3


Late games for Thu 7/25 games...

HOU - Bedard at TOR - Buerhle
HOU 6-12, 0-3 recent but unders 3-0
TOR 11-9, 1-2 recent and 2-1 to under

Recent form...
HOU 17 IP and 13 hits, 3.57 era down to 4.41
TOR 20 IP and 13 hits, 4.95 era up to 4.83

HOU loses when anyone pitches and TOR wins when Buerhle pitches.
Neither pitcher has faced the other team in 6 years.
HOU is 4-6 with 6.22 era away from home.

Price is too high to touch this game.


TB - Hellickson at BOS - Lackey
TB 13-7, 3-0 recent with unders 2-1
BOS 8-9, 1-2 recent with unders 3-0

Recent form...
TB 18 IP and 17 hits, 3.00 era down to 4.62
BOS 20 IP and 18 hits, 3.54 era up to 2.95

TB wins when Hellickson pitches (9-1 in last 10), BOS loses when Lackey starts.
TB allowed 3 runs or less in last 6 starts vs. BOS, BOS been crushed by TB, allowing 14 runs in last 13 IP.

Easy call here. TB has much better numbers vs. Lackey and he was hit last time out.

7) TB ML +116 for 2 units
8) TB alt RL -1.5 at +190 for 1 unit


BAL - Gonzalez at KC - Guthrie
BAL 11-6, 2-1 recent with unders 2-1
KC 12-8, 2-1 recent with unders 2-1

Recent form...
BAL 19 IP and 16 hits, 1.40 era down to 3.34
KC 19 IP and 24 hits, 5.03 era up to 4.41

Both teams win when these guys start, but KC pitcher in bad form.
both pitchers with 1 start, and allowed 1 run vs. the other team.
KC allowed 5-5-1-5-2-6-4 since he had his long winning streak without a loss snapped.

Have to take the better pitcher here..

9) BAL ML -134 for 2 units



PHI - Kendrick at STL - Lynn
PHI 12-8, 2-1 recent with overs 2-1
STL 13-7, but 1-2 recent and unders 2-1

Recent form...
PHI 17 IP and 25 hits, 6.11 era up to 3.94
STL 16 IP and 24 hits, 6.61 era up to 4.13

Yikes, both pitchers getting smashed recently. Both teams win when these guys start.
PHI pitcher has a shutout and 7 runs in 5 IP in last two starts in STL...weird. 7 career starts, 6 of them have been 3 runs allowed or less.
STL pitcher is almost the same. 7 shutout innings on 1 hit and 5 ip with 4 runs allowed.

STL pitcher of now, is not the same as April when PHI last saw him. LOW, low total for these two.

10) PHI and STL Over 7.5 at -110 for 3 units
11) Game - PHI ML +170 for 1 unit
12) First Five - PHI ML +155 for 1 unit

BOL

 

[play ball]

Late games...

Cubs - Villanueva at ARZ - Miley
Cubs 4-7, 1-2 recent with unders 2-1
ARZ 9-11, 2-1 recent with totals 1-1-1

recent form...
Cubs 14 IP and 16 hits, 6.43 era up to 4.16
ARZ 20 IP and 17 hits, 2.70 era down to 4.03

Both teams lose when these guys start.
ARZ has 2 starts vs. Cubs, one real good and one real bad. First start for Cubbie.
ARZ pitcher been solid for 9 straight, 3 runs or less. Cubs pitcher has been rocked for 7 runs twice in last 4 outings. ARZ getting their offense going.

13) ARZ ML -162 for 2 units
14) ARZ RL -1.5 at +120 for 1 unit

 

[play ball]

More late games...

LAA-Wilson at OAK-Strailly
LAA 11-9, 2-1 recent with unders 2-1
OAK 10-5, 2-1 recent with unders 3-0

Both pitchers trending down = under
LAA 22 IP and 17 hits, .82 era down to 3.15
OAK 20 IP and 11 hits, 1.33 era down to 4.14

Both teams win when these guys start.
LAA pretty good history vs. OAK, last 10 starts, allowed 4 runs or less in all, 2 runs or less in 7 of 10.
OAK been inconsistent 2-6-3-5.

Both teams have all kinds of trouble scoring and with both pitchers trending down...

15) First Five - LAA and OAK Under 4 at -120 for 2 units
16) Game - LAA and OAK Under 7.5 at -125 for 1 unit


MIN - Correia at SEA - Iwakuma
MIN 10-9, 1-2 recent with 3 unders
SEA 13-8, 2-1 recent with unders 2-1

Both pitchers trending up despite the unders...
MIN 17 IP and 18 hits, 4.67 era UP to 4.17
SEA 17 IP and 22 hits, 5.82 era UP to 2.99

Both teams win when these guys start.
SEA has yet to allow a run in 3 starts over 20 IP vs. MIN. MIN let in 4 runs in only start this year vs. SEA.

SEA hitting has slowed down, MIN doesn't score more than 3 very often lately and SEA pitcher doesn't give up runs vs. MIN...I like under here.

17) SEA and MIN Under 7.5 at -120 for 2 units
18) MIN TT Under 3.0 at -115 for 2 units

one more game to go....

 

[play ball]

Last game for Thu 7/25

CIN - Latos at LAD - Greinke
CIN 13-7, 2-1 recent with overs 3-0
LAD 12-3, 3-0 recent with unders 3-0

Recent form...
CIN 15 IP and 19 hits, 7.20 era UP to 3.53
LAD 22 IP and 11 hits, 0.41 era down to 3.36

Similar pitchers, but CIN pitcher in awful form and LAD pitcher rolling along like the team. Both teams win when these guys start, LAD win a lot more.
Both with good history vs. the other team. LAD red hot, but flying cross country from TOR last night.

I pass. Lean to LAD due to pitching mismatch.

BOL!