MLB Plays - 4/5-4/11
- Thread starter JetFavre
- Start date
JetFavre
Pretty much a regular
4/6
Texas Rangers +100 1.5 units
New York Yankees RL -120 1.5 units
Pittsburgh Pirates +150 1 unit
Rangers and Yanks are straight fades of Lee and Guthrie respectively, and Maholm looked great in spring training, so I'll take a shot at +150.
looking at a few night games, but will probably wait until closer to game time
:cheers:
Texas Rangers +100 1.5 units
New York Yankees RL -120 1.5 units
Pittsburgh Pirates +150 1 unit
Rangers and Yanks are straight fades of Lee and Guthrie respectively, and Maholm looked great in spring training, so I'll take a shot at +150.
looking at a few night games, but will probably wait until closer to game time
:cheers:
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JetFavre
Pretty much a regular
4/7
Boston Red Sox -145 1 unit
Boston Red Sox RL +150 1 unit
Minnesota Twins -115 1 unit
James Shields is winless in his career at Fenway and was dreadful there in two 2008 starts, with a 21.21 ERA (though one of his starts was cut short due to his ejection following a bench clearing brawl). The Rays even juggled their rotation in the ALCS to avoid pitching him in Fenway in Game 5. In 5 starts vs. Tampa last season, Josh Beckett was 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA. Boston has won 13 of its last 17 home openers as well.
Also taking a shot with Nick Blackburn at home at a short price.
Boston Red Sox -145 1 unit
Boston Red Sox RL +150 1 unit
Minnesota Twins -115 1 unit
James Shields is winless in his career at Fenway and was dreadful there in two 2008 starts, with a 21.21 ERA (though one of his starts was cut short due to his ejection following a bench clearing brawl). The Rays even juggled their rotation in the ALCS to avoid pitching him in Fenway in Game 5. In 5 starts vs. Tampa last season, Josh Beckett was 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA. Boston has won 13 of its last 17 home openers as well.
Also taking a shot with Nick Blackburn at home at a short price.
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JetFavre
Pretty much a regular
4/9
Pittsburgh/St. Louis o8.5 -110 1.5 units
Toronto Blue Jays -110 1 unit
Texas Rangers -115 1 unit
Tampa Bay Rays +135 1.5 units
Unfortunately I missed the 8 in St. Louis and had to settle for 8.5. I know Ross Ohlendorf was lights out this spring, but I've seen the guy pitch and still think he is better suited to the bullpen so I'm pretty skeptical. I also expect the Cardinals to be cautious with Carpenter this season, especially early on, so I'm counting on both bullpens, neither of which impresses me, being involved early.
Rick Porcello's first ML start is coming with a lot of hype and with good reason. But Ricky Romero comes in under the radar, making his first ML start as well. This is more of a hunch than anything else, but I like the home team here.
Rangers' lineup, Carl Pavano....this could get ugly. Then again, that's assuming Pavano can avoid getting hurt in between now and the first pitch. Brandon McCarthy is coming off a solid spring and I like the Rangers to finish off the sweep.
I really like Matt Garza and am interested in fading Dice-K this season, so getting +135 is a ton of value as far as I'm concerned. Dice-K led the AL in walks last season despite pitching less than 170 innings, but he was still able to maintain an ERA of 2.90. His BABIP against was .260 while the ML average was .302. I just think that if he continues to pitch with men on base all the time, the law of averages will catch up with him and his ERA to settle in around 3.50-3.70 range. Still above average, but a regression from last season. My numbers had the Rays around +115 today, so I'll gladly take +135.
:cheers:
Pittsburgh/St. Louis o8.5 -110 1.5 units
Toronto Blue Jays -110 1 unit
Texas Rangers -115 1 unit
Tampa Bay Rays +135 1.5 units
Unfortunately I missed the 8 in St. Louis and had to settle for 8.5. I know Ross Ohlendorf was lights out this spring, but I've seen the guy pitch and still think he is better suited to the bullpen so I'm pretty skeptical. I also expect the Cardinals to be cautious with Carpenter this season, especially early on, so I'm counting on both bullpens, neither of which impresses me, being involved early.
Rick Porcello's first ML start is coming with a lot of hype and with good reason. But Ricky Romero comes in under the radar, making his first ML start as well. This is more of a hunch than anything else, but I like the home team here.
Rangers' lineup, Carl Pavano....this could get ugly. Then again, that's assuming Pavano can avoid getting hurt in between now and the first pitch. Brandon McCarthy is coming off a solid spring and I like the Rangers to finish off the sweep.
I really like Matt Garza and am interested in fading Dice-K this season, so getting +135 is a ton of value as far as I'm concerned. Dice-K led the AL in walks last season despite pitching less than 170 innings, but he was still able to maintain an ERA of 2.90. His BABIP against was .260 while the ML average was .302. I just think that if he continues to pitch with men on base all the time, the law of averages will catch up with him and his ERA to settle in around 3.50-3.70 range. Still above average, but a regression from last season. My numbers had the Rays around +115 today, so I'll gladly take +135.
:cheers:
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ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
Nice write-up Jet,good to hear your thoughts.
Somehow Matsuzaka always gets out of his jams,...I faded blind last season for a while but the fucker would just somehow produce the miracle escape after walking himself into a spot.I gave up
GL Today pal
Somehow Matsuzaka always gets out of his jams,...I faded blind last season for a while but the fucker would just somehow produce the miracle escape after walking himself into a spot.I gave up
GL Today pal
JetFavre
Pretty much a regular
4/10
San Francisco Giants -105 2 units
Cincinnati Reds RL +125 1.5 units -- postponed
Tampa Bay Rays -125 1.5 units
On the surface, based on his 10-17 record and 5.15 ERA, it looks like Barry Zito was a great fade last season. But, betting on him over the course of the entire season would have actually been profitable, because he was often going off as such a big underdog. Do I think Zito is a great pitcher or will ever be as good as he was in Oakland? No. But I think he will be undervalued throughout this season and here is one of those spots. He has a career 3.65 ERA in Petco Park in 5 games, beat the Padres twice last season, and will be facing the worst lineup in the majors.
Cincinnati RL play is a strict fade of Jeff Karstens, who is a borderline major league pitcher at best, and was given a rotation spot despite his 6.17 ERA in spring training this year. Also, Cueto was lights out this spring and might be the best pitcher on that staff.
The Rays' line seems short, coming off their series win against the Sox in Fenway. Sonnanstine vs. Hendrickson favors the Rays, and I'll simply take the better team here.
Also, waiting for a better line but will most likely be on Houston tonight. No real reason or stats to back up this play, but just a hunch and I'll take a chance with the underdog. Currently I'm seeing +120 but I think this line gets driven up during the day. Still looking things over, but may add the Dodgers later as well.
San Francisco Giants -105 2 units
Cincinnati Reds RL +125 1.5 units -- postponed
Tampa Bay Rays -125 1.5 units
On the surface, based on his 10-17 record and 5.15 ERA, it looks like Barry Zito was a great fade last season. But, betting on him over the course of the entire season would have actually been profitable, because he was often going off as such a big underdog. Do I think Zito is a great pitcher or will ever be as good as he was in Oakland? No. But I think he will be undervalued throughout this season and here is one of those spots. He has a career 3.65 ERA in Petco Park in 5 games, beat the Padres twice last season, and will be facing the worst lineup in the majors.
Cincinnati RL play is a strict fade of Jeff Karstens, who is a borderline major league pitcher at best, and was given a rotation spot despite his 6.17 ERA in spring training this year. Also, Cueto was lights out this spring and might be the best pitcher on that staff.
The Rays' line seems short, coming off their series win against the Sox in Fenway. Sonnanstine vs. Hendrickson favors the Rays, and I'll simply take the better team here.
Also, waiting for a better line but will most likely be on Houston tonight. No real reason or stats to back up this play, but just a hunch and I'll take a chance with the underdog. Currently I'm seeing +120 but I think this line gets driven up during the day. Still looking things over, but may add the Dodgers later as well.
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