MLB Parlay for Today at (+304) Includes Top-Class Pitchers
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Tuesday, August 18, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Who Starts for Houston?
Justin Verlander starts for Houston tonight.
Despite regularly being favored so heavily, Verlander is his team's second-most profitable pitcher.
Pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, it is especially profitable to invest in Verlander in his starts on the road.
Away from Houston, the Astros are 9-2, yielding +6 units, in his starts.
They are, moreover, in a strong bounce-back spot since they lost the last game in which Verlander started.
After losing such a game, Houston is 4-0.
Verlander's Strong Form
Verlander's most recent starts reflect his overall reliability.
His strong current form is evident in the fact that he's yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) or 2.20 or lower in each of his last three starts.
While he allowed three runs in six innings in his last outing, which isn't great, he 1.28 FIP in that outing indicates that he truly pitched well.
In terms of ERA, he suffered from yielding a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite doing a terrific job of limiting hard contact while inducing soft contact at a high rate.
Verlander's Stuff
One thing that makes Verlander so difficult to hit is that he doesn't offer many gifts.
He is unlikely to walk batters or surrender home runs.
Instead of relying on cheap mistakes, batters have to produce runs the hard way when facing him.
But Verlander is difficult to hit because his pitch quality remains high even when his location becomes less than optimal.
His favorite pitch, the fastball, is a good example of a difficult Verlander pitch to hit.
This pitch ranks in the 90th percentile in spin and 73rd in velocity.
Verlander vs. White Sox Batters
On top of everything else, Verlander matches up well against White Sox batters given the pitches that he throws.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, slider, and curveball.
These pitches make up over 97 percent of his arsenal.
Chicago ranks 24th against these pitches from righties despite usually facing worst versions of these pitches from other, inferior pitchers.
Who Starts for Chicago?
Dylan Cease starts for Chicago tonight.
Cease is basically automatic: he has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last 14 starts.
During this long streak, he has had easy opponents, but he's also faced some of the most difficult teams.
Toronto and Minnesota, for example, rank top-six in slugging against right-handed pitching and they rank similar to Houston in slugging against Cease's favorite pitches from righties, yet they were no match for Cease.
A Great Spot for Cease
Plus, Cease is in a good spot, in the same sense that Verlander is.
While Verlander is most competitive on the road and after a loss, Cease is also coming off a loss and is also even most competitive than usual after losing.
In three of four starts directly following a loss, Cease allowed zero earned runs.
He allowed two runs in six innings in the one exception.
This will be a low-scoring game between two consistently great pitchers at their best.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, August 16, 2022 at 8:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Frnacisco
Who Starts for Arizona?
Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona today.
Kelly has been superb against San Francisco this year.
So far, he is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts against this team.
One must expect Kelly to thrive against the Giants because he matches up well against them.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, changeup, cutter, sinker, and curveball.
San Francisco ranks 25th in slugging against these pitches from righties.
Who Starts for San Francisco?
Jakob Junis starts for the Giants today.
Besides lacking the same strong history against Arizona that Kelly has against San Francisco, Junis lacks the same matchup advantage.
Diamondback batters look reliable today because they rank 10th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay White Sox/Astros under 7 at -108 and Diamondbacks ML at +110 at +304 odds with Heritage
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Tuesday, August 18, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Who Starts for Houston?
Justin Verlander starts for Houston tonight.
Despite regularly being favored so heavily, Verlander is his team's second-most profitable pitcher.
Pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, it is especially profitable to invest in Verlander in his starts on the road.
Away from Houston, the Astros are 9-2, yielding +6 units, in his starts.
They are, moreover, in a strong bounce-back spot since they lost the last game in which Verlander started.
After losing such a game, Houston is 4-0.
Verlander's Strong Form
Verlander's most recent starts reflect his overall reliability.
His strong current form is evident in the fact that he's yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) or 2.20 or lower in each of his last three starts.
While he allowed three runs in six innings in his last outing, which isn't great, he 1.28 FIP in that outing indicates that he truly pitched well.
In terms of ERA, he suffered from yielding a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite doing a terrific job of limiting hard contact while inducing soft contact at a high rate.
Verlander's Stuff
One thing that makes Verlander so difficult to hit is that he doesn't offer many gifts.
He is unlikely to walk batters or surrender home runs.
Instead of relying on cheap mistakes, batters have to produce runs the hard way when facing him.
But Verlander is difficult to hit because his pitch quality remains high even when his location becomes less than optimal.
His favorite pitch, the fastball, is a good example of a difficult Verlander pitch to hit.
This pitch ranks in the 90th percentile in spin and 73rd in velocity.
Verlander vs. White Sox Batters
On top of everything else, Verlander matches up well against White Sox batters given the pitches that he throws.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, slider, and curveball.
These pitches make up over 97 percent of his arsenal.
Chicago ranks 24th against these pitches from righties despite usually facing worst versions of these pitches from other, inferior pitchers.
Who Starts for Chicago?
Dylan Cease starts for Chicago tonight.
Cease is basically automatic: he has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last 14 starts.
During this long streak, he has had easy opponents, but he's also faced some of the most difficult teams.
Toronto and Minnesota, for example, rank top-six in slugging against right-handed pitching and they rank similar to Houston in slugging against Cease's favorite pitches from righties, yet they were no match for Cease.
A Great Spot for Cease
Plus, Cease is in a good spot, in the same sense that Verlander is.
While Verlander is most competitive on the road and after a loss, Cease is also coming off a loss and is also even most competitive than usual after losing.
In three of four starts directly following a loss, Cease allowed zero earned runs.
He allowed two runs in six innings in the one exception.
This will be a low-scoring game between two consistently great pitchers at their best.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, August 16, 2022 at 8:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Frnacisco
Who Starts for Arizona?
Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona today.
Kelly has been superb against San Francisco this year.
So far, he is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts against this team.
One must expect Kelly to thrive against the Giants because he matches up well against them.
Primarily, he throws a fastball, changeup, cutter, sinker, and curveball.
San Francisco ranks 25th in slugging against these pitches from righties.
Who Starts for San Francisco?
Jakob Junis starts for the Giants today.
Besides lacking the same strong history against Arizona that Kelly has against San Francisco, Junis lacks the same matchup advantage.
Diamondback batters look reliable today because they rank 10th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay White Sox/Astros under 7 at -108 and Diamondbacks ML at +110 at +304 odds with Heritage
