Satyr
Paster of Muppets
Athletics (Haren) (1.69 @ Pinnacle) 8 units
Runline (2.49 @ Pinnacle) 2 units
One of the biggest schedule screw ups I've seen in a while. The Red Sox played a late one last night against the Yanks and now have to fly across country to face the A's.
Rule number one: Fade Yankees and/or Boston the day after the BoSox/Yanks series. Especially in a schedule spot like this.
The thing is, the BoSox-Yanks rivalry is huge, the teams tend to vent out anger, frustration, they tend to step up 110% in order to beat the biggest rivals, and come out the next day a bit emotionally and physically drained.
Especially if you have Julian Tavarez starting against Dan Haren.
Tavarez (3-4, 5.40 ERA) is easily the worst SP in current Red Sox rotation. Tavarez has never faced Oakland as a starter. In 20 relief appearances versus the A's he is 1-1 with a 4.85 ERA. I'm well aware fading a 37-18 team isn't the best thing to do, but as I said, this is a schedule play, combined with a SP mismatch, an emotional letdown after NYY/BOS series.
Oakland are a team that rises in June. They're like 95-47 in June in last couple of years, and that's far from coincidence. We're not talking some meaningless trend, but a team designed to step up at this point, they're heating up in April and May and play their best baseball in June.
Already 2 wins in June, including last night's W over Johan Santana and the Twins.
The only downside of betting the A's right now is their depleted bullpen, as they've been missing Duscherer and Street for a while now, which pretty much shortens their pen.
Hopefully, they won't need to use their pen much tonight.
Dan Haren (6-2, 1.64 ERA) has the lowest ERA of any starter in the majors, and has won his last three starts and six decisions. On Wednesday, he allowed one run and four hits over eight innings of a 6-1 victory over the Texas Rangers. Opponents are hitting just .180 against the right-hander
Red Sox' number one closer Jonathan Papelbon allowed a homer last night to A Rod, so I expect more Okajima tonight, and early. Despite the fact the A's don't have as much power bats as some other teams, they do step up for Haren, at home and in June. They're turning their ~.500 season around, and I think they keep winning tonight.
We have Matsuzaka v Di Nardo tomorrow, and Kennedy - Wakefield the day after, so this might be by far the best chance for the A's to start off with the win.
The books have Oaktown at 59%, and with all mentioned elements taken into consideration my estimation is around 68%.
Seattle - Baltimore over 7.5 (2.04 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
At first glance, we have two stud pitchers which should result in a pitchers' duel right?
Well let me start off by saying I would estimate the line at 8.5 and around pk, not this nice plus money we're getting and at a run lower margin.
The thing is, Felix Hernandez is a phenomenal pitcher. Some would say he's suffering from a typical sophomore letdown process, I would say he's battling injuries which he hasn't healed 100% yet. He might be feeling less pain, but he doesn't have the confidence he had earlier in the season.
The numbers tell the story really:
Hernandez (3-3, 4.10 ERA) was terrible in his last outing, tying a career-worst by allowing seven earned runs and nine hits in six innings as Seattle (28-25) lost 8-6 to the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday night.
The 21-year-old right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.30 ERA in four starts since coming off the disabled list on May 15. He went 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA in three starts before straining his right forearm.
Hernandez is 2-1 with a lofty 5.82 ERA in three starts against the Orioles (27-30), but Baltimore's lineup scored just nine total runs while losing the final three games of a four-game weekend series versus the Los Angeles Angels.
The O's are cooling off, I know. After smashing Kansas City and having a few good games against the Angels, they're slowing down a bit in terms of offensive production. Their opposing pitchers however, have been excellent, so you have to cut them some slack. Also, against Hernandez in a rather hitters' friendly park, they might get to him early, in that case Seattle bats come to life. They have some bruised men (Beltre, Guillen, both questionable) but the M's have their offense going for weeks now, and Bedard (4-3, 3.67 ERA) doesn't have stellar numbers against them (1-3 with a 5.73 ERA in four starts against Seattle).
Seattle pitchers have been a rut over the past seven games, posting a 5.90 ERA. The Mariners, though, won the last two contests of a three-game set with Texas over the weekend, taking the finale 11-6 on Sunday.
Dodgers (Lowe) (RL) (2.12 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
The way I see this one: it's either going to be a comfortable Dodgers' win, them getting to Maholm early would be a priority, or it's going to be similar to last night, a 9 inning struggle. I'm willing to take my chances, I like what Derek Lowe (5-5, 3.32 ERA) has to offer. Lowe is 4-0 with a 2.52 ERA against the Pirates. The Pirates have a few dangerous hitters here and there (Bay, Nady, etc) while their tonight's opposition has a rather dangerous lineup, from top to bottom.
Maholm (2-7, 5.35 ERA) was quite solid at home last year, but this season he hasn't found his groove, regardless of the park he pitched in.
The Pirates failed to cling on to a 4-0 lead last night, what a downer. Tonight they'll go against a pitcher that gives them trouble, and against a revamped team boosted by last night's comeback win.
Expecting a 2-6 kind of score.
Btw, I am close to backing the Angels as well, since Vlad finally broke out of his 3 week slump when it comes to clutch hitting (he was mostly hitting singles and was being walked through the bases, but he lacked that killer instinct that makes him so great), I think the Angels are a compelling bet but Bonser shouldn't be underestimated either. I won't be backing the Twins mostly due to the fact they're not clicking when offensive chemistry is concerned. They're not scoring for Johan any more, let alone Bonser (on the road) but I still feel he might have a solid outing.
Angels should have Cabrera back in the lineup, they have Figgins hitting again, Willits raising hell with his baserunning, even though some guys like Kotchman and Napoli have slowed down a bit, and Shea Hillenbrand still hasn't showed his best stuff in the Angels uniform.
Still, I have a feeling the Twins are just sub par at the moment, the lack that offensive cohesion and aren't a compelling bet even at this price.
Weaver is solid, but hittable.
Very probably no bet, if I had to take anything I would go low stakes on LAA runline.
That's probably it for me for tonight, good luck tonight. :cheers: :shake:
Runline (2.49 @ Pinnacle) 2 units
One of the biggest schedule screw ups I've seen in a while. The Red Sox played a late one last night against the Yanks and now have to fly across country to face the A's.
Rule number one: Fade Yankees and/or Boston the day after the BoSox/Yanks series. Especially in a schedule spot like this.
The thing is, the BoSox-Yanks rivalry is huge, the teams tend to vent out anger, frustration, they tend to step up 110% in order to beat the biggest rivals, and come out the next day a bit emotionally and physically drained.
Especially if you have Julian Tavarez starting against Dan Haren.
Tavarez (3-4, 5.40 ERA) is easily the worst SP in current Red Sox rotation. Tavarez has never faced Oakland as a starter. In 20 relief appearances versus the A's he is 1-1 with a 4.85 ERA. I'm well aware fading a 37-18 team isn't the best thing to do, but as I said, this is a schedule play, combined with a SP mismatch, an emotional letdown after NYY/BOS series.
Oakland are a team that rises in June. They're like 95-47 in June in last couple of years, and that's far from coincidence. We're not talking some meaningless trend, but a team designed to step up at this point, they're heating up in April and May and play their best baseball in June.
Already 2 wins in June, including last night's W over Johan Santana and the Twins.
The only downside of betting the A's right now is their depleted bullpen, as they've been missing Duscherer and Street for a while now, which pretty much shortens their pen.
Hopefully, they won't need to use their pen much tonight.
Dan Haren (6-2, 1.64 ERA) has the lowest ERA of any starter in the majors, and has won his last three starts and six decisions. On Wednesday, he allowed one run and four hits over eight innings of a 6-1 victory over the Texas Rangers. Opponents are hitting just .180 against the right-hander
Red Sox' number one closer Jonathan Papelbon allowed a homer last night to A Rod, so I expect more Okajima tonight, and early. Despite the fact the A's don't have as much power bats as some other teams, they do step up for Haren, at home and in June. They're turning their ~.500 season around, and I think they keep winning tonight.
We have Matsuzaka v Di Nardo tomorrow, and Kennedy - Wakefield the day after, so this might be by far the best chance for the A's to start off with the win.
The books have Oaktown at 59%, and with all mentioned elements taken into consideration my estimation is around 68%.
Seattle - Baltimore over 7.5 (2.04 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
At first glance, we have two stud pitchers which should result in a pitchers' duel right?
Well let me start off by saying I would estimate the line at 8.5 and around pk, not this nice plus money we're getting and at a run lower margin.
The thing is, Felix Hernandez is a phenomenal pitcher. Some would say he's suffering from a typical sophomore letdown process, I would say he's battling injuries which he hasn't healed 100% yet. He might be feeling less pain, but he doesn't have the confidence he had earlier in the season.
The numbers tell the story really:
Hernandez (3-3, 4.10 ERA) was terrible in his last outing, tying a career-worst by allowing seven earned runs and nine hits in six innings as Seattle (28-25) lost 8-6 to the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday night.
The 21-year-old right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.30 ERA in four starts since coming off the disabled list on May 15. He went 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA in three starts before straining his right forearm.
Hernandez is 2-1 with a lofty 5.82 ERA in three starts against the Orioles (27-30), but Baltimore's lineup scored just nine total runs while losing the final three games of a four-game weekend series versus the Los Angeles Angels.
The O's are cooling off, I know. After smashing Kansas City and having a few good games against the Angels, they're slowing down a bit in terms of offensive production. Their opposing pitchers however, have been excellent, so you have to cut them some slack. Also, against Hernandez in a rather hitters' friendly park, they might get to him early, in that case Seattle bats come to life. They have some bruised men (Beltre, Guillen, both questionable) but the M's have their offense going for weeks now, and Bedard (4-3, 3.67 ERA) doesn't have stellar numbers against them (1-3 with a 5.73 ERA in four starts against Seattle).
Seattle pitchers have been a rut over the past seven games, posting a 5.90 ERA. The Mariners, though, won the last two contests of a three-game set with Texas over the weekend, taking the finale 11-6 on Sunday.
Dodgers (Lowe) (RL) (2.12 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
The way I see this one: it's either going to be a comfortable Dodgers' win, them getting to Maholm early would be a priority, or it's going to be similar to last night, a 9 inning struggle. I'm willing to take my chances, I like what Derek Lowe (5-5, 3.32 ERA) has to offer. Lowe is 4-0 with a 2.52 ERA against the Pirates. The Pirates have a few dangerous hitters here and there (Bay, Nady, etc) while their tonight's opposition has a rather dangerous lineup, from top to bottom.
Maholm (2-7, 5.35 ERA) was quite solid at home last year, but this season he hasn't found his groove, regardless of the park he pitched in.
The Pirates failed to cling on to a 4-0 lead last night, what a downer. Tonight they'll go against a pitcher that gives them trouble, and against a revamped team boosted by last night's comeback win.
Expecting a 2-6 kind of score.
Btw, I am close to backing the Angels as well, since Vlad finally broke out of his 3 week slump when it comes to clutch hitting (he was mostly hitting singles and was being walked through the bases, but he lacked that killer instinct that makes him so great), I think the Angels are a compelling bet but Bonser shouldn't be underestimated either. I won't be backing the Twins mostly due to the fact they're not clicking when offensive chemistry is concerned. They're not scoring for Johan any more, let alone Bonser (on the road) but I still feel he might have a solid outing.
Angels should have Cabrera back in the lineup, they have Figgins hitting again, Willits raising hell with his baserunning, even though some guys like Kotchman and Napoli have slowed down a bit, and Shea Hillenbrand still hasn't showed his best stuff in the Angels uniform.
Still, I have a feeling the Twins are just sub par at the moment, the lack that offensive cohesion and aren't a compelling bet even at this price.
Weaver is solid, but hittable.
Very probably no bet, if I had to take anything I would go low stakes on LAA runline.
That's probably it for me for tonight, good luck tonight. :cheers: :shake:
Damn those Dodgers 
