Wiretowire
Pretty much a regular
YTD +2780
7-4 last
Thanks B.A.R. I appreciate it. GL
Thanks Tim. Always good to hear from you. GL
Inzane, I haven't said anything in these threads except for what I see about games for quite some time. Because of that I haven't said anything that would lead to pissing people off too much. But what I am about to say will probably provoke some good folks to come in and argue and that's fine with me because I stand by my convictions when it comes to capping and betting MLB.
There has only been one capper that I have ever known or seen that successfully used -1 1/2 runs to bet games. Her screen name was Dreamer. She was the absolute best at it. I always marveled at how she consistently made money. In discussions with her, I would ask what was her criteria for the games she bet. She would always say two things. 1) The team she went -1 1/2 with had to be far superior offensively, have a significantly better starter, and a far superior bullpen. Because of these factors, she would never bet more than two games on a card and often she would pass the card entirely. 2) She also had one unbreakable rule - Never, Never, Never bet the -1 1/2 runs just to lower the odds.
I always agreed with that. When I saw you bet that yesterday in the Yankee game I was hoping you would pull it off but I was afraid of what would happen and it did. Yanks win by 1 run and your bet is blown. Now think about this for me. In the future if you are facing -300 or more odds (and the team favored by that big should win) do me a favor. Either bet the favorite laying those odds to win but bet half what you normally bet or walk away. Please never lay -1 1/2 just to cut the odds. The reason is two fold. First, you learned the hard way that the odds you still had to lay at -1 1/2 coupled with the money you would have won with a straight bet added together was still more than the original -300 if you bet half what you normally do. Second, think of every run you give is equal to -14 points in football. That means in football terms you had to win the game by 28 to cash. Can be done but a tall ask. Baseball is played for scoring 1 run at a time. Runner on second the batter needs to hit the ball to the right side to advance them to third and a runner on third with less than two outs the batter changes his swing to hit the ball in the air or drive it to score that runner whether he makes an out or not. But it is still, except for the fluke 2 or 3 run homer played 1 run at a time. And the worst horror of all is a team up by 2 runs in the last inning doesn't care if their opponent scores 1 run as long as they don't tie it up. Which is why you see if a team is down by 2 with a runner on first steal second without a throw in defensive indifference. All the leading team cares about is winning by one run.
Bottom line, I would rather see you bet half your normal on a straight bet or pass a bet entirely than give -1 1/2 runs. But end of the day it's your money so bet however you like. GL
Anyone can feel free disagree but I am pretty steadfast on this point.
All x50 each
AZ +2 1/2 -260 - I trust Bumgarner more than Greene in this one.
Toronto ML -150 - Just backing the better team here and Lynch had a very bad last. Go slow though because Stripling hasn't done well as a starter.
Houston ML -150 - Javier very solid and Ray very hittable.
Boston +2 1/2 -260 - Wacha pretty solid and he beat Syndergaard 4-0 on May 3rd. The Angels are just finding ways to lose but they have to win sooner or later which is why they can break their losing streak tonight with a win but by only 2 runs.
GL
7-4 last
Thanks B.A.R. I appreciate it. GL
Thanks Tim. Always good to hear from you. GL
Inzane, I haven't said anything in these threads except for what I see about games for quite some time. Because of that I haven't said anything that would lead to pissing people off too much. But what I am about to say will probably provoke some good folks to come in and argue and that's fine with me because I stand by my convictions when it comes to capping and betting MLB.
There has only been one capper that I have ever known or seen that successfully used -1 1/2 runs to bet games. Her screen name was Dreamer. She was the absolute best at it. I always marveled at how she consistently made money. In discussions with her, I would ask what was her criteria for the games she bet. She would always say two things. 1) The team she went -1 1/2 with had to be far superior offensively, have a significantly better starter, and a far superior bullpen. Because of these factors, she would never bet more than two games on a card and often she would pass the card entirely. 2) She also had one unbreakable rule - Never, Never, Never bet the -1 1/2 runs just to lower the odds.
I always agreed with that. When I saw you bet that yesterday in the Yankee game I was hoping you would pull it off but I was afraid of what would happen and it did. Yanks win by 1 run and your bet is blown. Now think about this for me. In the future if you are facing -300 or more odds (and the team favored by that big should win) do me a favor. Either bet the favorite laying those odds to win but bet half what you normally bet or walk away. Please never lay -1 1/2 just to cut the odds. The reason is two fold. First, you learned the hard way that the odds you still had to lay at -1 1/2 coupled with the money you would have won with a straight bet added together was still more than the original -300 if you bet half what you normally do. Second, think of every run you give is equal to -14 points in football. That means in football terms you had to win the game by 28 to cash. Can be done but a tall ask. Baseball is played for scoring 1 run at a time. Runner on second the batter needs to hit the ball to the right side to advance them to third and a runner on third with less than two outs the batter changes his swing to hit the ball in the air or drive it to score that runner whether he makes an out or not. But it is still, except for the fluke 2 or 3 run homer played 1 run at a time. And the worst horror of all is a team up by 2 runs in the last inning doesn't care if their opponent scores 1 run as long as they don't tie it up. Which is why you see if a team is down by 2 with a runner on first steal second without a throw in defensive indifference. All the leading team cares about is winning by one run.
Bottom line, I would rather see you bet half your normal on a straight bet or pass a bet entirely than give -1 1/2 runs. But end of the day it's your money so bet however you like. GL
Anyone can feel free disagree but I am pretty steadfast on this point.
All x50 each
AZ +2 1/2 -260 - I trust Bumgarner more than Greene in this one.
Toronto ML -150 - Just backing the better team here and Lynch had a very bad last. Go slow though because Stripling hasn't done well as a starter.
Houston ML -150 - Javier very solid and Ray very hittable.
Boston +2 1/2 -260 - Wacha pretty solid and he beat Syndergaard 4-0 on May 3rd. The Angels are just finding ways to lose but they have to win sooner or later which is why they can break their losing streak tonight with a win but by only 2 runs.
GL
