I've got some time so I'll throw my stats in with some thoughts. Maybe that will help clear things up a little. First set of pitching stats are visitor and second is home. I'll label the first one I do.
SD/Atl #1 (SD) 3 0 1 (Atl) 0 1 3 - Under 7 1/2 worth a look but I don't bet unders until late june. Edge to Atl ML but to bet a side you have to have the pitching edge AND the other team has to have problems. 0 1 3 good edge but 3 0 1 not bad so no side. No bet
CHW/Tor 0 0 5 and 2 8 2 - Pitching edge to CHW 0 0 5. 5 Scares me but Tor starter is struggling. Worth a bet CHW ML at +200 or so. Of course I would take the +2 1/2 runs at -200 but I am not going to put that in here. Bet CHW good dog
Mets/Cle 1 W and 3 3 1 - Mets starter only one start but he did allow a lot of walks in just 4 innings. Cle starter solid but 3 runs in each of last two is a lot. Total 8 1/2 no bet. Cle -130 good odds on home team. Lean Cle ML No bet
SD/Atl (#2) 5 1 4 and 0 0 1 - Big edge Atl lights out last 3 starts AND (big AND because you must have both to bet a side) SD starter struggling. I also rarely bet a total and a ML side in the same game. But there is no good total to bet here anyway. Bet Atlanta ML even though it's -240.
MLW/Miami 2 3 1 and 0 3 3 - Under looks good at 8 1/2 but I don't bet unders this early, but you could take a chance on a high total for this park. No advantage either way pitching. No bet
Minn/Wash - 3 1 1 and 3 2 3 - No side as both pitchers are decent. I do see a possible over 7 though as both seem to allow 3 runs each and remember that's in the first 6 innings or so not counting relievers. You could bet the over 7. I did.
Bost/TB 1 3 3 and 2 1 - No side as there is no advantage. You could try the under 7 1/2 in this park but for me. No bet
Sea/NYY 3 8 0 W and 0 4 1 - No total as both pitchers are ok but NYY pitcher has been good and Sea pitcher has not. That combination of good for one side and bad for the other means Bet NYY ML -140.
Det/KC 0 1 0 and 1 2 7 - Det starter is strong enough to consider a ML bet but KC starter is not horrible and remember you need both good for your guy and bad for the other guy to make a safe ML bet. Possible under 9 but I already covered that. It probably works for the under but I am only using this for overs and ML for now. No Bet
Balt/StL 3 0 2 W and 5 6 0 - You could easily take Balt ML at +130 or so because the books are inflating the odds for a name (Sonny Gray) and the Cards being home. But Gray has pitched poorly so that's bullshit, and we should take advantage of them but a better approach for this game is the over 7 1/2. Buying down to 7 of course. The reason? Gray has been bad but that little "W" next to Balt starter means he walks too damn many. Bet over 7
Ana/Hou 4 6 7 and 0 2 5 - Here bad Ana starter and good Hou starter. Should be a ML on Hou even though he's -210. That 5 scared me away 3 starts back but by the stats the bet is Hou ML.
AZ/LA 3 R and 4 2 0 - That little "R" means this starter is normally a reliever and the one start he had he allowed 3 runs. LA starter not very good with a bad 4 runs allowed in last. No side but an over 8 1/2 bought down to 8 is a solid bet.
Those are my betting process with some additional thoughts. There are other things that can get me off a bet but as I said we have to go to Las Vegas and sit together some morning and do this while I talk so you all can hear my thoughts and everything I consider.
GL
