MLB Monday 5/2

[Wiretowire]

YTD +1440
8-1 last - I said yesterday I would be glad to go 5-5. Oops. I guess I will have to take 8-1.

Thanks Bank. GL

Thanks Cash. GL

Thanks for the response Gamer. I appreciate it. Interesting take that the reason hitters are having trouble hitting is because of the pitching. I will agree to a point. That point being that many relievers do have good stuff a la Nolan Ryan. But if you look at the average era for the last 10 years for starters it is well over 4+. And in that same time the era for relievers averages well over 3+ (and remember that's runners put on base and scored from that reliever not inherited runners) with only 10 different teams total in 10 years having a 2+ era in the bullpen. The other stat that is telling about overall pitching is that except for the covid year MLB averages 22,000 runs scored each year for the last 20 years when I contend pitching took a turn for the worse. That's 5,000 runs less per year than each the previous 20 years.

Pitching, while obviously a factor, is not the sole reason why the hitters can't hit. You have seen game after game where the hitter swings at a pitch 6 feet out of the strike zone. Ok, you could say there is a lot of movement on the ball. But how many countless times have you seen a batter stand there with his bat on his shoulder as the pitcher throws a "please hit me" fastball right down the heart of the plate for strike three. And the batter just turns ands walks away. That's guessing and while your points are well stated I will amend my overall statement from now forward to be the only reason the hitters can't hit is because they are guessing, to a major reason the hitters can't hit is because they guess. But not the sole reason.

Now, truth be told, I remain unconvinced that pitching has a lot to do with why they can't hit. But I am sure you remain unconvinced that just guessing is not the sole reason hitters fail. But that is where baseball is unlike any other sport. Opinions and debates have differed and raged for well over a century about baseball and I expect they always will as long as someone plays the game. We should have a few beers together and talk about it further. GL

Strange day. I capped a lot of unders, especially AZ/Miami game, but just going to bet one parlay.

KC +2 1/2 -230
Ana +2 1/2 -280 .

-200/+200

GL

 

[2daBank]

im sure the fact they all striving for launch angle and hitting bombs has something to do with it as well. hence the shift cause guys rather roll over on outside pitches trying to go yard opposed to just hitting them where they are pitched. you would think it be so damn easy to hit for average these days if you so desired, unfortunately that doesnt get them paid so they not interested in doing that..

 

[inZane]

Good job Wire! Keep it up!

:cheers3:

 

[gamer]

Thanks Wire, GL today. I think it's wise to have a light card today. Could see some trends changing with the reduced roster sizes.

You use the word guessing a lot in your analysis. This is actually correct. Hitters ARE guessing because they have no choice. Let's go back to the 80's as an example. Hitters could memorize/study the pitching repertoire of 50 pitchers or so and basically have full coverage. The top three or four starters of the 11 or 13 teams they will face plus a few of their best relievers. What's left over are low quality junkballers. If you are an AL hitter, you can reasonably expect to be facing Dave Stieb or Jack Morris 15 times a year, year and year out for the decade.

Fast forward 30 years. Between interleague play and constant roster moves of pitchers, knowing 50 pitchers well doesn't cover much of anything. You can't possibly keep up with all the guys coming and going and by the time you learn a pitcher by facing them three or four times, they are traded or sent down and another scrub with good stuff has taken their place. With slightly different arm angles, with slightly different spin rates, with slightly different movement on their breaking pitches. You have to start from scratch.

What's left is that you might get 15 pitchers from the four divisional opponents that you will see 20 times a year, a bunch of those teams scrubs they will rotate through the course of the year. And then the rest of the time you are relying solely on your analytics department and coaching staff to guide you through the scouting reports of guys you never heard of or faced before. Under those circumstances, wouldn't you just be guessing most of the time?

 

[2daBank]

Thanks Wire, GL today. I think it's wise to have a light card today. Could see some trends changing with the reduced roster sizes.

You use the word guessing a lot in your analysis. This is actually correct. Hitters ARE guessing because they have no choice. Let's go back to the 80's as an example. Hitters could memorize/study the pitching repertoire of 50 pitchers or so and basically have full coverage. The top three or four starters of the 11 or 13 teams they will face plus a few of their best relievers. What's left over are low quality junkballers. If you are an AL hitter, you can reasonably expect to be facing Dave Stieb or Jack Morris 15 times a year, year and year out for the decade.

Fast forward 30 years. Between interleague play and constant roster moves of pitchers, knowing 50 pitchers well doesn't cover much of anything. You can't possibly keep up with all the guys coming and going and by the time you learn a pitcher by facing them three or four times, they are traded or sent down and another scrub with good stuff has taken their place. With slightly different arm angles, with slightly different spin rates, with slightly different movement on their breaking pitches. You have to start from scratch.

What's left is that you might get 15 pitchers from the four divisional opponents that you will see 20 times a year, a bunch of those teams scrubs they will rotate through the course of the year. And then the rest of the time you are relying solely on your analytics department and coaching staff to guide you through the scouting reports of guys you never heard of or faced before. Under those circumstances, wouldn't you just be guessing most of the time?

did they cut the rosters down from the extra pitchers they carried cause the shorten spring today? good to know.

 

[gamer]

Yup they did. Though my team sent down a bench player along with one pitcher. I think the original intent was to limit the roster to 13 pitchers but they delayed that restriction to start later in the month.

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Inzane. GL

Thanks Bank. Good points on the launch angle. GL

Gamer, I agree they are guessing because they don't know the pitchers for the reasons you give. But I also know that minor leaguers are taught to guess what pitch is coming next in a sequence as opposed to the way we did it which was see the ball hit the ball. Now I admit you knew some pitchers liked to use a curve or sometimes a sinker if they were ahead on the count for their strikeout pitch but after seeing that more than twice we knew what was coming and they knew we knew so they changed to another pitch. My beef about guessing is just that. Players are drilled to think of what the next pitch will be. And where which is really bad. I have an old friend I played with many years ago who just retired from the White Sox front office and he has lamented the hitting coaches in the minors for years for just that reason. Now as you and Bank say these geniuses have come up with analytics like launch angle and what not.

So you play from a kid until you are about 18 doing things one way and you are successful at it enough to get noticed and a contract for the pros. Then they tell you you aren't anticipating what pitch comes next and where. "After all kid you are in pro ball now. Think of how much better you will be as a hitter if you think properly!" So the instinctive way a guy hits is changed. He is also told to increase the degree angle he swings at. And don't hit the ball where it is pitched which he has done all his life. Instead, he is told that if your power is to a certain field concentrate on that power and keep hitting to that field. He is never told to shorten his swing with two strikes and god forbid the word "bunt" is ever said.

And to answer your question wouldn't I be guessing most of the time I can answer without hesitation when I played I never guessed. Not once. If I did it messed up my mechanics. Look red and take everything else to the opposite field or hold off. Yes, I got fooled a time or two with off speed I took for strikes but I never got fooled by a fastball especially down the middle. I guess that's what irks me the most is seeing these guys stand there, no swing, then just quietly walk away. In my bygone era, we were taught to protect the plate with two strikes. Not guess and then slowly walk to the dugout if we guessed wrong.

Finally, my wife always tells me to give the benefit of the doubt to anyone that has a different angle on something than I do and she is a wise woman. She also is quick to remind me that I played in the minors in the early 70's. I never did make it up to the majors. She always loves to say listen to folks. Things may have changed a little in 50 years old man. GL

 

[2daBank]

Thanks Inzane. GL

Thanks Bank. Good points on the launch angle. GL

Gamer, I agree they are guessing because they don't know the pitchers for the reasons you give. But I also know that minor leaguers are taught to guess what pitch is coming next in a sequence as opposed to the way we did it which was see the ball hit the ball. Now I admit you knew some pitchers liked to use a curve or sometimes a sinker if they were ahead on the count for their strikeout pitch but after seeing that more than twice we knew what was coming and they knew we knew so they changed to another pitch. My beef about guessing is just that. Players are drilled to think of what the next pitch will be. And where which is really bad. I have an old friend I played with many years ago who just retired from the White Sox front office and he has lamented the hitting coaches in the minors for years for just that reason. Now as you and Bank say these geniuses have come up with analytics like launch angle and what not.

So you play from a kid until you are about 18 doing things one way and you are successful at it enough to get noticed and a contract for the pros. Then they tell you you aren't anticipating what pitch comes next and where. "After all kid you are in pro ball now. Think of how much better you will be as a hitter if you think properly!" So the instinctive way a guy hits is changed. He is also told to increase the degree angle he swings at. And don't hit the ball where it is pitched which he has done all his life. Instead, he is told that if your power is to a certain field concentrate on that power and keep hitting to that field. He is never told to shorten his swing with two strikes and god forbid the word "bunt" is ever said.

And to answer your question wouldn't I be guessing most of the time I can answer without hesitation when I played I never guessed. Not once. If I did it messed up my mechanics. Look red and take everything else to the opposite field or hold off. Yes, I got fooled a time or two with off speed I took for strikes but I never got fooled by a fastball especially down the middle. I guess that's what irks me the most is seeing these guys stand there, no swing, then just quietly walk away. In my bygone era, we were taught to protect the plate with two strikes. Not guess and then slowly walk to the dugout if we guessed wrong.

Finally, my wife always tells me to give the benefit of the doubt to anyone that has a different angle on something than I do and she is a wise woman. She also is quick to remind me that I played in the minors in the early 70's. I never did make it up to the majors. She always loves to say listen to folks. Things may have changed a little in 50 years old man. GL

im ok with guessing to a extent but the problem is that probably worked a lot better years ago, after all you worked to get the favorable count so ya might as well sit on a pitch or a spot (it tough to catch up to 95+ without cheating a bit!), As with anything adjustments are made and pitchers have begun pitching "backwards", used to be you got ahead in the count 2-0, 3-1, etc you could pretty much bank on seeing a heater at least 80% the time, now days pitchers know you cheating/guessing and have no problem throwing some filthy off speed in those counts, 1 they dont care bout walking guys, 2 they know these mfers sitting dead red and swinging out their shoes regardless what they throw!! This another product of pitchers not really being expected to go that deep anymore and pens being so heavily used, they much rather walk a guy/throw more pitches to a batter than give in and let them blast a fastball 500 feet! another thing, these guys not waiting to get into favorable counts to guess, some of them appear to be doing it every pitch! bad enough they refuse to choke up and try to make contact, guessing with 2 strikes a real good way to strike out 30% of your at bats!