GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
SEASON: 25-20, +10.5815 Units
YESTERDAY: 2-6-1, -5.8225 units
If someone had told me after the first week of the season, I'd be 25-20 and +10.5815 units I would've said, "No way! That would be on pace to win about 250 units for the year." However, now I am there, I still feel disappointed based upon the fact that a few days ago I was up almost +20 units and I regressed over the weekend. Truth be told, before the season started, I would've been thrilled being up +10.5 units for the month of April. All in all, I need to be happy and move on. Again, for any new and young bettors that have been tweeting to me, I am not the Savior and I do not specialize in quick scores and bail outs. I am a methodical handicapper hoping to hit 51-52% using low priced favorites and underdogs that is looking to grind out a very handsome profit overt he season. I urge people to read my baseball betting thesis if you haven't already done so:
http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?87760-Betting-Baseball
A few tough beats in baseball early on but that's baseball so I have to get used to it. Greg Holland walks the bases loaded in the B9 Saturday with a 2 run lead and gives up a 2 out 3 run double. Jeff Samardzija looked like Cy Young for 4 2/3 innings striking out 12 and I led 1-0 in my F5 inning bet with 2 outs and nobody on with the pitcher on deck. Then single, 4 pitch walk to the pitcher and back to back wild pitches score a run and I push. Ouch!
Well bullpens have been imploding everywhere so leads well into my first two plays which will both be First 5 Inning plays:
ASTROS +150 1ST 5 INNS (1.5 UNITS) - Definitely going to be tough for anyone including me to back the Astros in any means right now but I think this may be as good a shot as any. Yes, these are the Astros (1-5) who have plated nine runs and are batting .183 during a five-game losing streak. They've already totaled 74 strikeouts, the most through the first six games of a season since 1921. However, if you remember back to Opening Day, their only win was against a pitch to contact left hander, Matt Harrison. Today they face possibly the #1 pitch to contact left hander in the majors in Joe Saunders. Throughout his entire career, Saunders averages just 5.14 K's per 9 innings, one of the lowest K ratios in the majors the past decade. The soft-tossing Saunders was having trouble locating pitches in his first start and it cost him. Since he doesn't feature overpowering stuff, when he can't locate his pitches correctly, he gets hit hard. Saunders came off a spring training which saw him toss 11.7 innings, allowing 20 hits, 17 runs and 6 walks with an 11.57 ERA and followed it up with an opening start in which he lasted just 4 innings and allowed 7 hits, 4 earned runs and 4 walks. With the fences moved in at Safeco, I don't expect much good out of Saunders this year and most importantly, when his control is off he is most vulnerable. Phil Humber imploded after his perfect game last season but that perfect game was against these Mariners at Safeco. In addition, Humber looked solid in his first start allowing just 1 run in 5.7 innings against the Rangers. I am more inclined to take the Astros for the F5 innings here as I think the best advantage is in the starting pitching matchup.
METS +105 1ST 5 INNS (1.25 UNITS) - As addressed and reported on the Bleacher Report, Roy Halladay has become a disaster.Concerns in spring training over Halladay's pitching prowess cascaded into the regular season Wednesday night when the former Philadelphia Phillies ace allowed five earned runs in 3.3 innings pitched. Despite the horrific outing, optimists will beat their drums over Halladay's nine strikeouts in less than four innings. Either way, the bitter overcomes the sweet in this entire ordeal. Doc is no longer the pitcher baseball fans have grown accustomed to; Halladay has changed and it will only be for the worse so long as he does not adapt. Last Wednesday, Halladay delivered a spike in velocity from his innings pitched in spring training. However, the vast majority of the pitches thrown were sinkers or cutters; therefore, the lack of fastballs may have prolonged a looming decline in velocity later in the game. At any rate, this decline appears perpetual. A subjective debate could ensue for ages as to whether or not Halladay's ills are mental or physical. We simply do not know. Realistically pointing out Halladay's deficiencies as they are is a confirmation of the ills which are troubling him. No longer a spring chicken, the soon-to-be 36-year-old has become more of a liability than a contributor to the club. If nothing else, Halladay's inability to hack it makes the Phillies worse, not better until he figures things out. Meanwhile, some scouts questioned whether Matt Harvey's fastball was big league material as he was rising in the Mets' minor league ranks. Judging by his 10-start stint with the big club late last summer, there's no doubt it is: The pitch averaged 94.7 mph, was responsible for 41 of his 70 total strikeouts and limited hitters to a .238 batting average. Harvey struck out 10 over seven shutout innings Wednesday against the Padres, allowing just one hit and two walks in his first start of the year, which was ironically similar to his last start last season which was against these Phillies where he also pitched 7 innings and allowed just 1 hit. In addition, Harvey looked strong in spring training tossing 27.3 innings and allowing 29 hits, 9 earned runs (1.96 ERA) with an outstanding 33:9 K:BB ratio. In Harvey's two starts against the Phillies last year, he threw 13.3 innings and allowed just 7 hits, 3 runs and had a 13:5 K:BB ratio. Again, I am more inclined to take the Mets for the F5 as until Halladay shows me he can turn things completely around, I think that is where the best advantage is with Harvey looking so sharp.
YESTERDAY: 2-6-1, -5.8225 units
If someone had told me after the first week of the season, I'd be 25-20 and +10.5815 units I would've said, "No way! That would be on pace to win about 250 units for the year." However, now I am there, I still feel disappointed based upon the fact that a few days ago I was up almost +20 units and I regressed over the weekend. Truth be told, before the season started, I would've been thrilled being up +10.5 units for the month of April. All in all, I need to be happy and move on. Again, for any new and young bettors that have been tweeting to me, I am not the Savior and I do not specialize in quick scores and bail outs. I am a methodical handicapper hoping to hit 51-52% using low priced favorites and underdogs that is looking to grind out a very handsome profit overt he season. I urge people to read my baseball betting thesis if you haven't already done so:
http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?87760-Betting-Baseball
A few tough beats in baseball early on but that's baseball so I have to get used to it. Greg Holland walks the bases loaded in the B9 Saturday with a 2 run lead and gives up a 2 out 3 run double. Jeff Samardzija looked like Cy Young for 4 2/3 innings striking out 12 and I led 1-0 in my F5 inning bet with 2 outs and nobody on with the pitcher on deck. Then single, 4 pitch walk to the pitcher and back to back wild pitches score a run and I push. Ouch!
Well bullpens have been imploding everywhere so leads well into my first two plays which will both be First 5 Inning plays:
ASTROS +150 1ST 5 INNS (1.5 UNITS) - Definitely going to be tough for anyone including me to back the Astros in any means right now but I think this may be as good a shot as any. Yes, these are the Astros (1-5) who have plated nine runs and are batting .183 during a five-game losing streak. They've already totaled 74 strikeouts, the most through the first six games of a season since 1921. However, if you remember back to Opening Day, their only win was against a pitch to contact left hander, Matt Harrison. Today they face possibly the #1 pitch to contact left hander in the majors in Joe Saunders. Throughout his entire career, Saunders averages just 5.14 K's per 9 innings, one of the lowest K ratios in the majors the past decade. The soft-tossing Saunders was having trouble locating pitches in his first start and it cost him. Since he doesn't feature overpowering stuff, when he can't locate his pitches correctly, he gets hit hard. Saunders came off a spring training which saw him toss 11.7 innings, allowing 20 hits, 17 runs and 6 walks with an 11.57 ERA and followed it up with an opening start in which he lasted just 4 innings and allowed 7 hits, 4 earned runs and 4 walks. With the fences moved in at Safeco, I don't expect much good out of Saunders this year and most importantly, when his control is off he is most vulnerable. Phil Humber imploded after his perfect game last season but that perfect game was against these Mariners at Safeco. In addition, Humber looked solid in his first start allowing just 1 run in 5.7 innings against the Rangers. I am more inclined to take the Astros for the F5 innings here as I think the best advantage is in the starting pitching matchup.
METS +105 1ST 5 INNS (1.25 UNITS) - As addressed and reported on the Bleacher Report, Roy Halladay has become a disaster.Concerns in spring training over Halladay's pitching prowess cascaded into the regular season Wednesday night when the former Philadelphia Phillies ace allowed five earned runs in 3.3 innings pitched. Despite the horrific outing, optimists will beat their drums over Halladay's nine strikeouts in less than four innings. Either way, the bitter overcomes the sweet in this entire ordeal. Doc is no longer the pitcher baseball fans have grown accustomed to; Halladay has changed and it will only be for the worse so long as he does not adapt. Last Wednesday, Halladay delivered a spike in velocity from his innings pitched in spring training. However, the vast majority of the pitches thrown were sinkers or cutters; therefore, the lack of fastballs may have prolonged a looming decline in velocity later in the game. At any rate, this decline appears perpetual. A subjective debate could ensue for ages as to whether or not Halladay's ills are mental or physical. We simply do not know. Realistically pointing out Halladay's deficiencies as they are is a confirmation of the ills which are troubling him. No longer a spring chicken, the soon-to-be 36-year-old has become more of a liability than a contributor to the club. If nothing else, Halladay's inability to hack it makes the Phillies worse, not better until he figures things out. Meanwhile, some scouts questioned whether Matt Harvey's fastball was big league material as he was rising in the Mets' minor league ranks. Judging by his 10-start stint with the big club late last summer, there's no doubt it is: The pitch averaged 94.7 mph, was responsible for 41 of his 70 total strikeouts and limited hitters to a .238 batting average. Harvey struck out 10 over seven shutout innings Wednesday against the Padres, allowing just one hit and two walks in his first start of the year, which was ironically similar to his last start last season which was against these Phillies where he also pitched 7 innings and allowed just 1 hit. In addition, Harvey looked strong in spring training tossing 27.3 innings and allowing 29 hits, 9 earned runs (1.96 ERA) with an outstanding 33:9 K:BB ratio. In Harvey's two starts against the Phillies last year, he threw 13.3 innings and allowed just 7 hits, 3 runs and had a 13:5 K:BB ratio. Again, I am more inclined to take the Mets for the F5 as until Halladay shows me he can turn things completely around, I think that is where the best advantage is with Harvey looking so sharp.
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