MLB Monday 4/5 and a rant

[Wiretowire]

YTD -1114
3-5 last

A rant...........................

MLB comes up with useless stats. Actually, it's TV that tries to make the game more exciting(?) coming up with these "stats". First it was bat speed. That one died quickly. Then it was launch angle. Took a season longer but also died in two years. And both of these should have died as they were useless. My personal favorite before the first two I mentioned was umpire strike percentage. That one went away when people realized that these hitters that were guessing and swinging at balls 20 feet out of the strike zone or foul balls counted as an umpire calling a strike. When you think about it that one was really stupid and had nothing really to do with the ump. And today? Exit velocity, exit velocity, exit velocity. Saying it 50 times a game and on every ball hit doesn't make it matter. It's still just as dumb as ump strike percentage. But it's the new thing.

Let's look at how useful it is.

A ball line drive hit at exit velocity of 120 mph is hit pretty well. Significance? One run.

A ball hit exactly 304 1/2 feet over a 304 foot wall but hit 300 feet in the air has an exit velocity of 90 mph. Still a HR so what exactly is the difference and what did exit velocity tell you? Not a damn thing. Significance? One run.

My favorite is runner on third with two outs in the bottom of the 9th with the score tied and the batter hits a seeing eye single between first and second. Exit velocity 30 MPH. Significance? Game winner.

But baseball is not alone. In basketball a guy SLAMS a dunk and the crowd goes nuts. Another guy hits a 4 foot jumper and the crowd yawns. By the way, both are only worth two points. But the announcers and crowd make the dunk more important. I could never figure that one out.

I'm sure you have your own list of useless stats in sports. Some will say they are not useless and their significance goes beyond the game into the realm of science. And to that I will leave you with what I figure has to be the next "important" baseball stat. The hitter stepping out of the batters box to scratch his balls. "WOW! did you see that Joe? He really scratched them up that time. Four scratches while some of the younger guys only do 3 scratches and I'm sure that was the reason he hit the next pitch for a HR at an exit velocity of 90 MPH. Isn't sports the best?" GL

All x100 each

Minn/Det under 9 1/2 -130
Tor/Texas under 10 1/2 -130
TB/Bost under 10 -130
KC +2 1/2 -300
Phil +2 1/2 -170
NYY -230
Cinn -150
LA -160
SD -170

GL

 

[jedi ninja]

The stats you’re mentioning are pretty useless for fans, can’t really argue there. Outside of the “wow” factor, casual fans (even more than casual fans) won’t really see that big of a need for those stats.

However, for the players, teams, coaches, etc...those stats are extremely valuable. Just using the exit velo, for instance, can allow them to see how good of contact they’re making on a certain pitch, against a certain pitcher, etc. Also the spin rate on pitches is another area that has drastically improved many, many, many pitchers in the pay few years...Trevor Bauer and Driveline Sports immediately come to mind. What they’ve done with technology to improve pitchers and their understanding of what they’re actually trying to do (when throwing a baseball) has been remarkable to watch.

They are, maybe foolishly, trying to make some of these stats mainstream which may not work...but for the fame itself it can have a pretty big impact, especially when developing players in college, minors, etc.

 

[Wiretowire]

Very good points Jedi. As an ex player in the minors I can’t really see the value in the exit velocity stat. Granted that was about 50 years ago when I played in the minors and it was the result of the contact not the velocity of the contact that meant something to us. But I am no way trying to diminish your points which are very valid in today’s game.

They have become very scientific in their approach to the game and to a certain degree I can see the value in what they do for the way they play the game.

The one thing I don’t understand and this has nothing to do with stats is the hitting coaches who for the last 20 years have taught their hitters to guess at pitches. Back in my day it was see the ball hit the ball and if you got two strikes you shortened up your swing to protect the plate. They don’t do any of that today. You wouldn’t be playing pro ball back then if your swings were that wild. And it’s hurt the batting averages of today’s hitters. Of course you could make a case that pitchers are much better throwing more kinds of pitches today than back then and to a point I would agree.

Thanks for the feedback. I appreciate it. GL

 

[2daBank]

I think exit velo is helpful to know if a guy is barreling the ball up. Think it stands to reason if a guy is making consistently hard contact he will most likely have more success than someone who getting a bunch of bloop singles to fall. I could certainly go without hearing it 100x during the telecast tho, that doesn’t do much for me, If im watching I can see who hitting the ball hard!

 

[2daBank]

I’m all for lot of the advanced metrics to help me cap games but im not a huge fan of what they have done to the game as a whole. The more teams only willing to shell out money for certain things the more the game gonna go in that direction. I really can’t stand the idea that a pitcher can only control walks and strikeouts, that stupid and so obviously wrong I dunno how it has took off the way it has. If you ask these “the world is black and white” analytics dorks I guess Gregg Maddox wasn’t a HOF’er cause he pitched to contact! I can only imagine what they say about Tony Gwen who was prob just “lucky” to hit way over .300 every year!! Certainly he wasn’t hitting it where ppl wernt on purpose! Just dumb luck! Lol. My biggest issue is logical ppl understand the world is grey and certain types who slaves to analytics don’t seem to grasp this.

 

[Wiretowire]

I agree with a ton of what you said Bank. There is a lot of grey. When I first read Jedis post i disagreed with a lot but then I reread it and realized I was looking at it with ancient eyes and mind. A lot of what you and he says makes sense to me. It helps me with perspective because the trap is to say but that’s not the way we did it but times change and new ideas and concepts are fantastic. Good stuff. GL

 

[2daBank]

I think the key is to be open to things but at same time nothing wrong with being skeptical or at least not treating anything as the holy grail cause there really isn’t one. A lot of it is useful but to treat anything as the be all end all is a huge mistake imo. I see certain pitchers lines get moved 20cents against them over and over again cause the die hard analytics ppl with no imagination think any pitcher who isn’t striking out 1+ per innings is getting “lucky” when they have success! Lol. You will seriously see them fade the same guy for 2 years and when he finally has a few bad starts they be right there to say they told us so, that great asshole but I been getting cheap prices betting him for 2 years thanks to you!!! Lol

 

[2daBank]

All just a long way of saying I think there plenty of room for both, I embrace a ton of analytics in my capping but at same time appreciate the value of the old ways and understanding the game without being a slave to the numbers as well.