MLB Monday (4/07/08)

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
Favs: 4-3 +.20 Units
Dogs:
15-4 +17.985 Units
Totals:
12-4-1 +6.15 Units
1st 5 Innings: 0-2 -2.00 Units
1st 5 Innings Total:
3-3 -.20 Units
6th Inning+:
1-0 +1 Units
6th Inning+ Total:
0-0 +/-0 Units
RLs: 2-1 +.952 Units
Misc:
1-1 -.05 Units
Overall:
38-18-1 +23.857 Units

8-0 +8.5 Units yesterday, lets keep it rolling! Also hit 8 Units on my Hornets yesterday, I was giddy at the end of the game. Could've easily lost money on that game if the Warriors their last 3 point attempt, had a 4Q bet of -1 Hornets and they were up 2 when they shot it. Either way in the game Warriors shot awful from 3 and Peja shot awful from 3 so I think it even itself out in that respect. I didn't watch any of the games at all yesterday so don't know if I truly capped some of the games correctly or not but Im not worrying about that, moving on to today.


Just for you BREWER!
:D

Philadephia Phillies @ Cincinatti Reds UNDER 9 -105 (Hamels v. Arroyo) W

I am not that confident in this play as I would like with the way the Reds are mashing but Wendelstedt it the ump and I am banking on him to help out the pitchers here. Hamels owned the Reds last year and he's just at another level in comparison to the other Phillies pitchers but the bullpen is the big concern. He should eat up innings and the reds bullpen is good enough to keep the Phils from putting up runs. Phils aren't familiar with Arroyo so it should take sometime for them to get used to his strange release, but Im afraid of him getting hit early. Thats how I see it, I wish this was 9.5... Wind blowing in from RF slightly around 9mph. Hopefully not crosswind from right to left, an absurd amount of OVERS with that happening but in from right the results favor the under.

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 9 -120 (Lilly v. Gorzelanny) L
Both pitchers great #'s vs the opposing teams. Gorzelanny last year better splits during the day/home. Lilly dominated the Pirates. Both didn't pitch very well last week but I am expecting a bounce back performance from both. Hope the pens don't get in the way of this, wind is blowing in from right center @ around 11 mph gametime so that'll help the situation. LEAN to Pirates +107, want some better odds, we will see what happens.

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants UNDER 7.5 -110 (Maddux v. Cain)
Book it, Giants can't hit a crafty guy like Maddux. Cain owns the Pads, pitchers park, wind is blowing out though, only around 7/8 mph.

Cleveland Indians @ Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8.5 +100 (Carmona v. Saunders)
I know Carmona doesn't pitch as well on the road but he's still an improving pitcher, which is a scary thought considering how well he pitched last year. Saunders is a guy who could pitch on basically all the other big league teams and be a stud in my opinion. He shut down the Indians last year, these guys have gone under 8 of their last 9 meetings. The line was 9, dropped to 8.5 and I don't think I'll get better than even money on this line so I snatched it up right now. I also am LEANING to the Angels, if money comes in on the Indians I'll probably make a play on Saunders, this guy is for real.

LEAN - Houston Astros -118 (Wandy v. Wellemeyer)
It's Wandy at home, thats all I have to even look at.

LEAN - Washington Nationals -137 (Redding v. Miller)

Miller looks like he has a lot to learn still and Redding is an under the radar pitcher. If the price keeps dropping I'll be on the Nats, better pen, the Nats can take advantage later in the game of this

LEAN - Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies OVER 10 (Glavine v. Cook)
Tail ramble? yup I didn't even look at the stats but his system is money and both pitchers aren't great.

LEAN - Minnesota Twins +133 (Blackburn v. Vazquez)

I don't know... I just think there's value in the Twins. I'm kind of reaching for dog plays though, not many I think are solid tomorrow.

LEAN - Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees OVER 10.5 -105 (Hammel v. Mussina)
I know the Yanks aren't hitting that well right now but the Rays are outside of yesterdays game. Wang OWNS them, thats all you can say. Moose is declining, his #'s might indicate he owns the Rays but he got rocked by these boys last year

LEAN - Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 (Silva v. Cabrera)

Well it's +100 right now, just a tail of vk after reading his analysis on this game. Waiting to see if I can catch a 9.


Basically I'll probably play almost every game.

BOL To Yall Monday :cheers:
 
Last edited:
gl tomorrow renew....... keep it going !!

kind of like that bounceback spot with the total in the cubbies/pirates too.
like situation for an under in sf but not the number.

Noticed something wierd about wendelstedt last year..... he is an over umpire in even years ( 2000, 2002, 2004 , 2006 ) and an under umpire in odd years ( 2001 , 2003 , 2005, 2007 ). This should be an over year for him lol. he has called two games this year and both were low scoring. Just thought i would point this out since you mentioned him and i thought this was really wierd.
 
8-0 last night. :eek: :cheers::smiley_acbe:

this boy got game


GL tonight, fantastic start
 
gl tomorrow renew....... keep it going !!

kind of like that bounceback spot with the total in the cubbies/pirates too.
like situation for an under in sf but not the number.

Noticed something wierd about wendelstedt last year..... he is an over umpire in even years ( 2000, 2002, 2004 , 2006 ) and an under umpire in odd years ( 2001 , 2003 , 2005, 2007 ). This should be an over year for him lol. he has called two games this year and both were low scoring. Just thought i would point this out since you mentioned him and i thought this was really wierd.

thanks for the info vk - his strike % is pretty high and shows he's consistently calling more strikes each year than other umps. maybe the o/u results don't show it but hey, anything can happen and something as unusual as that could be a factor. if he keeps going under, maybe he'll have a long over streak sometime this year? but indeed it's strange.

#'s pretty low in SF but sometimes you just deal with it. landing on 8 would be awful but I doubt that happens unless the runs come off HRs and not the teams stringing together hits.


thanks Satyr - I'll have to PM you this question if you don't read this, when you coming back to post your picks? you did well previous years in MLB so just wondering why you are laying off.
 
yeah i wasnt mentioning the alternating years thing as an angle of any kind ... just noticed it last year and had an opportunity to mention it somewhere because you brought him up. I mean how many times does his name get mentioned a year in here ? hehehe

and dont get me wrong , i think you have the value side of the giant total ..i came within a smidge of betting it myself ... in fact if the total were to move up a little overnight, i still might.
 
Renew,

Congratulations on your day yesterday!

Question: How do you know the wind is blowing IN from right-center in the cub/pirate game. Weather report says SE 10 to 15 mph. When I look at the ballpark configuration thread in this forum, SE is out to right-center, so wouldn't the wind be actually blowing out? Not trying to correct you...trying to understand how to read the wind patterns based on the info in this forum. Thanks.
 
Scratch that last question Renew...I ask dumb questions before I have my AM coffee...I see now...wind blowing FROM SE. Duh.

Just keep picking winners. GL.
 
Honestly dude, the Reds still aren't mashing per se...Keppinger is, and Patterson and Griff are heating up, but Dunn, Encarncion, Votto etc are really struggling..

I don't think Patterson or Griff will play today..so that takes two "heating up" bats outta the lineup, IMO..I'm not Baker, but we'll see..

I don't think we'll have a good lineup out there anyways, so Hamels should do well...he just made the Reds look silly last year w/ the curve..

Arroyo struggles w/ lefties, so that would be my one concern w/ the under...but like you've said, they've only faced him once...so we'll see..

GL dude...I played the Phils.
 
haha thanks for lookin into it horses, that got me last year too. BOL to you today.

thanks bailey - hope we cash em

thanks Jump - you know you're reds, thanks for the update/info. Didn't really look at the game stats the last couple of days so that's my fault. GL with the phils, should be easy money

thanks t2 - hope it cashes for ya, looks solid but I'm guessing if Arroyo messes it up in the 1st 5 then the whole game under is screwed too.
 
thanks ramble, as usual

1-1 so far so down a little juice

Rest of my days plays:

Houston Astros -116 (Wandy v. Wellemeyer)
Washington Nationals -130 (Redding v. Miller)
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies OVER 10 +100(Glavine v. Cook)
Minnesota Twins +148 (Blackburn v. Vazquez)
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees OVER 9.5 -120 (Hammel v. Mussina)
Los Angeles Angeles -103 (Saunders v. Carmona)
 
You have good instincts. Disagree with only one of the later plays. The play on Houston seems strange. Wandy is 0-4 lifetime at home vs the Cardinals. Last season his late home games were terrible and its really hard to find any angle pointing to Houston as a side here. BOL
 
thanks brar - going to be a negative day, oh well

capt slap - you must be loaded huh

thanks peldas - glad you bounced back

thanks tuck - i definitely respect you as a capper so I appreciate the comment. I just didn't respect wellemeyer enough and felt like a bargain vs the cards at home, even if they did start out the season well.



not looking like a good day, but thats what i get for playing so many games @ once. it's a high risk/high reward scenario
 
Back
Top