MLB June 24th Discussion - May be close to Tebow Time!

todays starters runs allowed L10 starts
snell and chacin have only gave up 18 runs over 10 starts and smith surprisingly on 20
while hammel has gave up 40 and colon 38
and Vargas 34 in 9 starts this year

View attachment 32983
 
LA Dodgers:
  • Under is 8-1 in LAD last 9 on grass.
  • Under is 7-1 in LAD last 8 games as a favorite.
NY Mets:
  • Under is 7-1 in NYM last 8 home games.
  • NYM are 7-21 in their last 28 home games.
  • NYM are 16-37 in their last 53 overall.
Head to Head:
  • LAD are 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
  • LAD are 18-6 in the last 24 meetings in New York.
 
Seattle:
  • Under is 7-1 in Gonzales' last 8 starts overall.
Boston:
  • Under is 7-1 in BOS last 8 games as a home favorite.
  • Under is 7-1 in BOS last 8 home games.
  • Under is 20-6 in BOS last 26 Sun. games.
Head to Head:
  • Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.
 
Home favs over 200 that have won no more than half of last 10 win 80% of the time for +13% ROI

HF and line < -200 and tS(W, N=10) < 6 and season >= 2018
SU: 33-8 (3.20, 80.5%) avg line: -244.2 / 214.4 on / against: +$1,320 / -$1,545 ROI: +13.2% / -37.7%
RL: 26-15 (1.70, 63.4%) avg line: -123.6 / 103.6 on / against: +$780 / -$1,075 ROI: +15.4% / -25.2%


Also seems to stand the test of time if you go back 3 years, they still win 78% for 10% ROI

HF and line < -200 and tS(W, N=10) < 6 and season >= 2015
SU: 184-52 (2.21, 78.0%) avg line: -241.2 / 214.1 on / against: +$5,870 / -$7,300 ROI: +10.3% / -30.9%
RL: 137-99 (0.71, 58.1%) avg line: -115.2 / 100.9 on / against: +$2,408 / -$3,945 ROI: +8.8% / -15.9%

 
NY Yankees:
  • Under is 9-0 in NYY last 9 road games.
  • Under is 21-5-1 in NYY last 27 overall.
  • NYY are 6-2 in their last 8 Sun. games.
Tampa Bay:
  • Under is 8-0 in TB last 8 vs. American League East.
  • TB are 3-9 in their last 12 Sun. games.
  • Under is 33-15-3 in TB last 51 overall.
Head to Head:
  • Under is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings.
  • NYY are 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
 
since their 3-18 start the Reds are above .500 at 28-27. Combine that with the Cubs playing like garbage and you have a possible 4 game sweep today :pointandlaugh:
 
after last night LAD has beat the muts by 3 or more 9 straight
  • 6/19/17: @Dodgers 10, Mets 6
  • 6/20/17: @Dodgers 12, Mets 0
  • 6/21/17: @Dodgers 8, Mets 2
  • 6/22/17: @Dodgers 6, Mets 3
  • 8/4/17: Dodgers 6, @Mets 0
  • 8/5/17: Dodgers 7, @Mets 4
  • 8/6/17: Dodgers 8, @Mets 0
  • 6/22/18: Dodgers 5, @Mets 2
  • 6/23/18: Dodgers 8, @Mets 3
 
06/24 06:35 AM PDT


MLB

EVENT #951-952

PITCHING CHANGE

Chicago Cubs - M MONTGOMERY -L for T CHATWOOD -R
 
mrpickem said:
NY Yankees:
  • Under is 9-0 in NYY last 9 road games.
  • Under is 21-5-1 in NYY last 27 overall.
  • NYY are 6-2 in their last 8 Sun. games.
Tampa Bay:
  • Under is 8-0 in TB last 8 vs. American League East.
  • TB are 3-9 in their last 12 Sun. games.
  • Under is 33-15-3 in TB last 51 overall.
Head to Head:
  • Under is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings.
  • NYY are 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
Click to expand...

"The Yankees last went this deep into a season without losing three straight in 1954, and they are 6-0 this year when in danger of dropping a third consecutive game."
 
mrpickem said:
after last night LAD has beat the muts by 3 or more 9 straight
  • 6/19/17: @Dodgers 10, Mets 6
  • 6/20/17: @Dodgers 12, Mets 0
  • 6/21/17: @Dodgers 8, Mets 2
  • 6/22/17: @Dodgers 6, Mets 3
  • 8/4/17: Dodgers 6, @Mets 0
  • 8/5/17: Dodgers 7, @Mets 4
  • 8/6/17: Dodgers 8, @Mets 0
  • 6/22/18: Dodgers 5, @Mets 2
  • 6/23/18: Dodgers 8, @Mets 3
Click to expand...

Wow, total ownage!!
 
Can’t pass up Seattle+1.5 +120. M’s lineup much better vs lefties than Sox who have a Collective ops under .700 vs southpaws this season. Sale hasn’t gotten much support. Just hard not to take a team in good form getting the 1.5 at plus money.
 
I rarely pay much attention to lineups but Bryant being out does kinda hurt my over lean in cincy.

Perez out for kc def hurts them considering how little punch that lineup has anyways.
 
I really like over in Reds. Romano terrible on 4 and 7.20 ERA with Layne major over
Pretty goos pitcher for Cubs.
 
tuck321 said:
I really like over in Reds. Romano terrible on 4 and 7.20 ERA with Layne major over
Pretty goos pitcher for Cubs.
Click to expand...

I had to start over, initially capped it thinking chatwood was starting, was kinda salivating over his walk rate in that bandbox, was a recipe for some crooked numbers.. as my guy BiffT pointed out to me across the street having to throw a emergency starter out there prob won’t hurt the over. Montgomery does have strong daytime numbers and success at this park tho. Reds sporting very strong slug and ops vs southpaws.
 
Montgomery has been really strong this month, every start 6 innings 1 run. He did start walking guys his last start but don’t like this as much with him opposed to chatwood who hasn’t been able to hit broad side of a freaking barn!!
 
Can cardinals score some runs today? Think they gonna have to if they want to salvage a split, really only recipe for wins has been starting pitcher being lights out and pen following suite, and that has rarely been enough lately, see flarherty taking a no no into 7th and only allowing a solo shot in a game they lost 2-1 when brewers only had 2 hits! (2 solo bombs by same guy!). Yesterday Mikolas was great again and yadi carried them with 2 bombs for all 3 runs.. bats have had success vs brewers starter but they been doing nothing outside solo homers the last 2 weeks!!! Think it milw or nothing far as side but don’t want to lay the chalk. Looking at possible over but so scary with way we hitting.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I think I am backing Cards and I like Rodon. He has had a few starts to get loose. If Ejax is really pitching sheeeet, FF
Click to expand...

I just don’t trust weaver right now, I feel like they will have to score 4+ to win so leaning more towards over but haven’t gotten to ump yet.
 
It been a month since weaver has posted a quality start and that was against royals lifeless offense, only 2 quality starts since mid April and he been especially bad in day games. Brew crew w a collective .900ish ops vs him. Cards basically right bout same vs chacin but he def been in better form of the 2. Think it gonna be a game decided by the pens which advantage milw although as I’ve said several times lately I think cards pen is starting to round into form and unbelievably adding holland to the mix has been a good thing thus far. Now that we talking 1st 5 over might be better than game?
 
Guess books agree. 1st 5 over is a juiced 4.5 or ov5 +110. Normally I prefer risking the push and not paying the juice but not sure I love needing 6 runs to win?

1st 5 ov 4.5 -120 for me.
 
How about going back to the Over in Denver today?
Yesterday an under, today its Marquez and Smith.
Any weather info?
 
Gaius.T said:
How about going back to the Over in Denver today?
Yesterday an under, today its Marquez and Smith.
Any weather info?
Click to expand...

I was just getting ready to look into this one. Looks like rather cool with chance of rain in early going, not exactly ideal for the over.
 
Great start in Milwaukee!

Not going so well im Boston, somehow Cruz hit a triple and not a homer?!? Then he was stranded on 3rd, of course following half inning Sox hang 3. Sale is looking quite dominate.
 
Sale is lights out today. The triple was actually a double and a missed cut off.

Saw his first pitches and went under 1,5 for the first three innings.
 
Ah, was curious how the hell he got a triple? Don’t think he has had one of those for years! Lol.. really didn’t want them to send gonzo back out for 6th, was looking like sox had him figured out previous inning. Now there no damn chance the +1.5 cashes. Oh well, on to next. Be nice if cards didn’t squander this opportunity and pushed it over right here!
 
Fucking cardinals continue not being able to do shit with guys on bases. But watch next inning they will hit a bout worthless solo homer. I miss the days when they played good situational ball instead of this garbage “everyone swing for the fences” approach they have going now.
 
Sale gets 13th K with 100mph fastball on 93pitches after 7. Lots of high fives, not sure if he's coming back out.
 
Gaius.T said:
Thoughts on the Jays- Halos over? Gaviglio has not impressed me. Angels pitcher is big Q!
Click to expand...

Those lineups just not producing shit this series. Both pitchers were ripe yesterday, particularly halos starter who was walking guys like crazy and it was freaking 1-1 in 9th. Jays lineup just doesn’t have much to worry a pitcher right now.
 
It does look like another game could see lot more of both those pens., only a matter of time till one those pens springs a big leak.
 
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