MLB July 7th Discussion ~ Rays 22-10 RL since June 1

[mrpickem]

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[mrpickem]

RL records since June 1

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[tuck321]

Morton lost his last game. Its a day game Shields a day game cripple 1-8 5.21 ERA. Morton with Hernandez 18.2 innings ERA 1.93 ERA. This may get ugly

 

[tuck321]

What happens in Toronto? Not entirely clear. We know NY is a good Saturday team but Severino is normally worse on the road. Is missing his best catcher and on 4 a ERA of 1.60 but on 5 goes up to 2.56.

 

[tuck321]

Ump in Minn loves unders and the home team. Gaus bad in the Day

 

[mrpickem]

What happens in Toronto? Not entirely clear. We know NY is a good Saturday team but Severino is normally worse on the road. Is missing his best catcher and on 4 a ERA of 1.60 but on 5 goes up to 2.56.

up tp 2.56 lol, thats terrible. dude is 12-4 on road L365, an issue I notice is nyy only 11-11 in div on road in day games but w/Luis I'll chance it

 

[tuck321]

See a major over in Cubs game Adrian Johnson ump MAJOR over ump. Both Starters about 4.80 ERA with him. Harvey has been bad on the road last 2 years at least Chat a problem child but will the Cubs ever stop. Cubs on Saturday 10-5 Reds 6-9.

 

[2daBank]

No way around backing cards today for me. Carlos has found his command it appears, he still struggling in 1st innings but that always been a problem since well before the recent dl stint. Be nice if he figures that out on a consistent basis one day and becomes a true ace he capable of but right now he back to about where his game was imo which still pretty damn good and I think gives cards a better chance to win than the small price suggest. He also has put in 9ish excellent innings w ump, a complete gm gem vs giants last season, and nobody on San Fran has hit him in their limited tries (or in mccutchins case in lot me of abs).

Tried trusting a San Fran pitcher off dl in game 1 and that went horribly., shark never been great in the day that I recall and off long vacation himself. Couldn’t argue against under at all cept for the unknown of guy in this spot. For me no reason not to just hit the cards ml pretty good and hope Martinez 1st inning can be overcome!

Wanna get real sneaky with it, I never plays these but 1st inning run scored seems like a high percetage play!

 

[tuck321]

I am not betting against him especially after a big Yankee loss.
Gausman
GAUSMAN is 0-3 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 7.59 and a WHIP of 1.344.

 

[tuck321]

Jeff is absolutely not a play on. He was the worst pitcher on 6plus in history. This seasonhis fist 2 starts were simply 5 ERAs. He could revert at any time

 

[tuck321]

first 2 starts

 

[tuck321]

Milwaukee seems to be starting a bad pitcher in a emergency. Sanchez 6.37 ERA vs them

 

[Inspekdah]

Chatwood is awful. His WHIP to ERA is somehow unreal. He should be around a 8 ERA with that WHIP. Just been lucky. Line speaks volumes. Reds on fire.

 

[mrpickem]

decided to roll with cin/cub over as well :shake:

also nyy 8-2 on road vs lefties this year

 

[mrpickem]

severino at rogers
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severino only 3-2 lifetime vs jays but was dog in 4 of those so did return 32% ROI
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[tuck321]

So far a large bet on over 8.5 minus 25 cents in Cubs
Bet Miami plus 2.5
Made various bets on Houston
Average bet on Cardinals
Hit Minn also average

 

[tuck321]

Will be adding Cleveland

 

[mrpickem]

E-Jack 10-4 vs tribe lifetime and 9-5 under in them games https://goo.gl/ozmh1J

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[tuck321]

Bet him. The Cubs are going to be playing 200%. Sure they want to lose 6 in a row to the Reds

 

[Inspekdah]

Cole’s splits look awful. Fiers not a good lifetime WHIP vs Rangers.

Runs to be scored?

 

[Inspekdah]

Bet him. The Cubs are going to be playing 200%. Sure they want to lose 6 in a row to the Reds

Bet who?

 

[tuck321]

You like Harvey.
Adding Snell. Not totally convinced looking at 3 road losses but they were tough spots and on 5 7-1 1.20 ERA

 

[Inspekdah]

You like Harvey.
Adding Snell. Not totally convinced looking at 3 road losses but they were tough spots and on 5 7-1 1.20 ERA

I don't like Harvey. Just know that Chat is a bum. You're OVER recommendation looks good to me.

 

[mrpickem]

Only 13 times this year line was over 300 and although fav went 9-4 you would have profited on dog 22% ROI
If you bet both +300 dogs today and just 1 comes in you are up 200%

 

[tuck321]

Mystery games. Hamels back on 5 except the last 2 he pitched like a boob. Good history with ump and playing against a quality pitcher. Meanwhile Texas injuries up to 12
Paxton vs Freeland. One of my better trend sites loves Freeland and I am rather fond of him myself but Days rest and days of week like Seattle. Very unsure

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Gibson bad home, bad day, taking O's FF +136

 

[mrpickem]

Early lineups
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[mrpickem]

TWINKS fit this

ML 54-31 63.5% 13.4% ROI
RL 40-45 47.1% 20.3% ROI
...also 10-4 ML this year

home favs of 150 or less after 2 str 3 or more run wins and series game 2 or higher since 2016 omitting SEP

season >= 2016 and HF and line >= -150 and p:margin > 3 and p2:margin > 2 and SG > 1 and month < 9
SU: 54-31 (0.91, 63.5%) avg line: -127.8 / 118.3 on / against: +$1,449 / -$1,770 ROI: +13.4% / -20.8%
RL: 40-45 (-0.56, 47.1%) avg line: 158.4 / -177.5 on / against: +$1,743 / -$2,517 ROI: +20.3% / -16.7%

 

[Inspekdah]

Yanks 21-6 vs. lefties is pretty insane. Stanton is best in the league vs. them and it removes that bum Bird.

 

[mrpickem]

Yanks 21-6 vs. lefties is pretty insane. Stanton is best in the league vs. them and it removes that bum Bird.

Actually 21-5 +24% ROI this year including 9-1 L10

 

[tuck321]

Not seeing a post I nade adding Snell. 7-1 on 5 1.20 ERA

 

[mrpickem]

public huge on scrubs va
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[tuck321]

New catcher for Chatwood

 

[2daBank]

Mystery games. Hamels back on 5 except the last 2 he pitched like a boob. Good history with ump and playing against a quality pitcher. Meanwhile Texas injuries up to 12
Paxton vs Freeland. One of my better trend sites loves Freeland and I am rather fond of him myself but Days rest and days of week like Seattle. Very unsure

I’m too big a fan of Seattle lineup vs lefties to be against them here.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

I’m too big a fan of Seattle lineup vs lefties to be against them here.

I thot seattle didn‘t hit lefties well?

 

[tuck321]

Cleveland was rl so unlikely to cover. Should have had under first half in Tanpa but Tampa looks like money. Hope Houston hangs on 2.5 does not leave much margin although half was1.5. Go Miami my day is coming to an end

 

[tuck321]

It appears that the Nationals are back