Satyr
Paster of Muppets
I won't even update my record as it's shameful by now, I think I fell under the 30 unit threshold...Jesus...I was on the verge of making ONE HUNDRED units of profit 2 weeks ago...now I'm fighting for my life here. A rare situation for me as I always had ways of limiting my losses and maximizing good runs.
You know the iceberg that sank Titanic? Well I'm the iceberg that WANTED to sink Titanic and missed it. I'm that cold right now, and I can't hit a house.
So take my picks with a grain of salt. My thoughts, predictions, whatever...
Ok enough whining and bitching. The truth is, I'm in a HORRID streak, but I hope to bounce back slowly, 2 good days would change a lot.
I'm calm, still disciplined, cautious, I'm not letting this affect my thinking. But I am starting to be worried a bit.
A small tribute to my Spurs, they did it, won their 4th title in 9 years, and NBA was kind to me this year, one of those great seasons, I can't complain. May some NBA momentum help me out with the bases now, that NBA players are thinking golf, sea and spending time with their families.
NYY-NYM over 9 (1.92 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
I have a feeling Mets win this one, but I won't even bother picking the sites as both teams can snatch the W, Subway series is a special kind of rivalry.
Let me tell you one thing: the return of Roger Clemens could have been different, it was all about run support as in reality he gave up 3 ER in 6 IP to a lousy offense. The smile on his face was put there by the resurgent Yankee offense, who are more patient and have more killer instinct without Giambi, oddly enough.
Clemens is a big name, Yankees are winners of 9 straight, climbed back to over .500 sooner than some might have thought, and they'll be fired up to continue the streak, and beat the city rivals.
I think they won't have any problems with the base hits, even though Oliver Perez is a very solid lefty, but the thing is, Yankees are hitting .333 against lefties in last 10 games. Clemens is a mystery, no one really knows how he'll fare against a team that should be regaining their momentum any time now, and a far more dangerous lineup than the Bucs had, and on the other hand Perez isn't unhittable either.
Both pens are more than shaky, Mets are horrid lately and even though Yanks' bullpen has improved, they're still going to have their hands full tonight.
Indians (Sabathia) (RL) (1.87 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
The Indians are on the climb again, after a few sub par games. The Indians are a monster 21-8 at home, despite the fact the Indians have lost four of their last six games at Jacobs Field, I think they rebound tonight.
CC Sabathia (9-1, 3.09 ERA) is team's ace and will be looking for his 10th win of the season.
Sabathia was in an unfamiliar situation in his last start, as he threw a 9 inning shutout and the pen still blew the game which resulted in him getting a no decision.
I do think the Indians are a quality team, and have a very solid lineup, which should feast off below par pitchers, like Buddy Carlyle (1-1, 4.91 ERA). Carlyle is a bad NL pitcher, imagine what a strong AL lineup should do to him, and at home. The only game he handled well was that double-header game against Florida (Mitre was on the mound), as he limited the Fish to 1 run in 6 innings of work.
But all other starts were rather bad ones. I'm not impressed at all by his stuff and I think these guys will hurt him a lot.
Atlanta are getting their stuff together slowly but they're still losing games, last night against Santana they dropped the game after entering the 9th inning with a 2-0 lead.
How's that for a morale killer? My call is 7-2 Indians.
BOS-SF under 9.5 (2.01 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
I don't bet unders that much but I like this one. The thing is, the Red Sox are finally showing signs of slowing down. They're regressing to a far less dangerous lineup than they were a few weeks ago, when guys like Lowell, Youkillis, Drew, etc...were hitting like crazy...
Now this is mostly an offense based on Manny and Big Papi, as it was expected in the first place.
They're not producing much to be honest. The Red Sox have scored a total of just six runs in their last four games, and dropped the final two of their three-game series with the Colorado Rockies by a combined 19-3. Boston went 3-for-27 with runners in scoring position in the series, including 1-for-13 in Thursday's 7-1 defeat.
And now they're facing a team with their own offensive problems, who will send out Barry Zito (6-6, 4.02 ERA) who was, coincidentally, more successful among AL lineups than he is now in the NL. Zito is 5-5 with a 4.78 ERA in 13 career starts versus Boston, all while pitching for the Athletics. Zito was doing just fine before he faced the A's last week. I think he bounces back nicely here.
Julian Tavarez is no scrub either, and he will be facing his former team. Tavarez (3-4, 5.25 ERA) will be given the ball to start the series opener. The right-hander, who made 196 appearances out of the bullpen for San Francisco from 1997-99, is 2-3 with a 3.62 ERA in 13 appearances - two starts - versus the Giants since he left them.
The Giants have offensive woes of their own, caused by Bonds' lousy streak and the absences of Klesko, Aurilia, Winn and Alfonzo.
Athletics (Haren) (RL) (2.26 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
Actually thought of playing this one with 10 units on the moneyline, but this is a better investment me thinks. I know it's going out on a limb a bit, backing up the A's on the runline, but the price reflects the fact they're not the best offensive team out there, despite the fact they're one of the hottest teams in June, this year as well as previous ones.
Dan Haren (7-2, 1.58 ERA) is an absolute ace this year, and one of the main Cy Young award candidates.
I'm well aware this is a game in which statements are made, since Tony La Russa has spent 10 years coaching the Athletics before taking over St Louis. Haren, on the other side, wasn't always an ace. He used to play for the Cards, and went 6-10 with a 4.85 ERA in 28 appearances, including 19 starts, for the team from 2003-04.
But that's all in the past. Present time says, the Cards are a rather erratic bunch at the moment. They were showing some signs of waking up (especially in the offense, lead by Pujols), but now they slumping again. Or how else do you call a complete meltdown in Kansas City. This team is in complete disarray, which is no surprise considering they're missing both Mulder and Carpenter from the rotation since the season started.
They need some incentive on the mound, instead of trying to erase what guys like Wainwright or their tonight's starter, Brendan Looper (6-5, 4.12 ERA) mess up.
Looper however, has been quite succesful this year, even though he's slowly starting to show his true face: he is 0-2 with a 7.64 ERA in his last three outings.
Not sold on Haren yet, perhaps? How about this: Haren is 7-0 with a 1.48 ERA and .170 opponents batting average over his last 11 starts, and 4-0 in seven home starts.
And we're talking AL lineups. These guys are hot and the Cards, despite the fact they might be making a statement (ex coach, players facing ex teammate on the mound) I don't think they have the cohesion they would need to beat the A's right now. Perhaps with Blanton on the mound, but Danny Haren, I've been watching this guy a lot this year, and I can't see passed the A's W here.
Leans:
White Sox/Pittsburgh UNDER.
Who is going to score here? I know Maholm is weak but CWS are hitting .232 as a team. Garland, on the other hand, will have to contain guys who were hitting over their pirate heads for 3 games during which they put 21 runs on the board. But when pus came to shove (read: Gorzelanny on the mound, streak expected, momentum mode: on) they shat the fan, and lost 0-6.
LA Dodgers
Santana is a roadkill and Lowe has been improving. The thing that is putting me off here is the fact the Angels are hitting again. And we're talking clutch hitting. Over 8 seems appetizing as well.
I did think Owings would make a compelling bet but the closer I looked at it, the more I thought Baltimore will win this one. So a no bet for me, the price is fair I think.
Harry Leroy starts today for the Blue Jays. He's been erratic over the last month, and even though he should dominate the lowly Nats, these guys are in a solid hitting streak right now and the Jays are so non dependable it's starting to be funny. I know Doc's a beast, but I can't lay this much chalk here, and I love CC's Injuns far more.
Chances are, I'll be eating my words after Toronto wins 11-2 and Indians snatch another 1-0 win in the 10th. Gosh I hope not.
Oh yeah, another small lean would be Florida and Kansas not exceeding the 9 run limit. Kansas might have used all their runs last night, and Florida will be playing a road game against Meche on the mound. Mitre is solid as well. Initial lean was Florida but after talking to Unicorn I decided to scratch it. Under is the only lean.
Let's make this a winning day. :cheers: :shake:
You know the iceberg that sank Titanic? Well I'm the iceberg that WANTED to sink Titanic and missed it. I'm that cold right now, and I can't hit a house.
So take my picks with a grain of salt. My thoughts, predictions, whatever...
Ok enough whining and bitching. The truth is, I'm in a HORRID streak, but I hope to bounce back slowly, 2 good days would change a lot.
I'm calm, still disciplined, cautious, I'm not letting this affect my thinking. But I am starting to be worried a bit.
A small tribute to my Spurs, they did it, won their 4th title in 9 years, and NBA was kind to me this year, one of those great seasons, I can't complain. May some NBA momentum help me out with the bases now, that NBA players are thinking golf, sea and spending time with their families.
NYY-NYM over 9 (1.92 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
I have a feeling Mets win this one, but I won't even bother picking the sites as both teams can snatch the W, Subway series is a special kind of rivalry.
Let me tell you one thing: the return of Roger Clemens could have been different, it was all about run support as in reality he gave up 3 ER in 6 IP to a lousy offense. The smile on his face was put there by the resurgent Yankee offense, who are more patient and have more killer instinct without Giambi, oddly enough.
Clemens is a big name, Yankees are winners of 9 straight, climbed back to over .500 sooner than some might have thought, and they'll be fired up to continue the streak, and beat the city rivals.
I think they won't have any problems with the base hits, even though Oliver Perez is a very solid lefty, but the thing is, Yankees are hitting .333 against lefties in last 10 games. Clemens is a mystery, no one really knows how he'll fare against a team that should be regaining their momentum any time now, and a far more dangerous lineup than the Bucs had, and on the other hand Perez isn't unhittable either.
Both pens are more than shaky, Mets are horrid lately and even though Yanks' bullpen has improved, they're still going to have their hands full tonight.
Indians (Sabathia) (RL) (1.87 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
The Indians are on the climb again, after a few sub par games. The Indians are a monster 21-8 at home, despite the fact the Indians have lost four of their last six games at Jacobs Field, I think they rebound tonight.
CC Sabathia (9-1, 3.09 ERA) is team's ace and will be looking for his 10th win of the season.
Sabathia was in an unfamiliar situation in his last start, as he threw a 9 inning shutout and the pen still blew the game which resulted in him getting a no decision.
I do think the Indians are a quality team, and have a very solid lineup, which should feast off below par pitchers, like Buddy Carlyle (1-1, 4.91 ERA). Carlyle is a bad NL pitcher, imagine what a strong AL lineup should do to him, and at home. The only game he handled well was that double-header game against Florida (Mitre was on the mound), as he limited the Fish to 1 run in 6 innings of work.
But all other starts were rather bad ones. I'm not impressed at all by his stuff and I think these guys will hurt him a lot.
Atlanta are getting their stuff together slowly but they're still losing games, last night against Santana they dropped the game after entering the 9th inning with a 2-0 lead.
How's that for a morale killer? My call is 7-2 Indians.
BOS-SF under 9.5 (2.01 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
I don't bet unders that much but I like this one. The thing is, the Red Sox are finally showing signs of slowing down. They're regressing to a far less dangerous lineup than they were a few weeks ago, when guys like Lowell, Youkillis, Drew, etc...were hitting like crazy...
Now this is mostly an offense based on Manny and Big Papi, as it was expected in the first place.
They're not producing much to be honest. The Red Sox have scored a total of just six runs in their last four games, and dropped the final two of their three-game series with the Colorado Rockies by a combined 19-3. Boston went 3-for-27 with runners in scoring position in the series, including 1-for-13 in Thursday's 7-1 defeat.
And now they're facing a team with their own offensive problems, who will send out Barry Zito (6-6, 4.02 ERA) who was, coincidentally, more successful among AL lineups than he is now in the NL. Zito is 5-5 with a 4.78 ERA in 13 career starts versus Boston, all while pitching for the Athletics. Zito was doing just fine before he faced the A's last week. I think he bounces back nicely here.
Julian Tavarez is no scrub either, and he will be facing his former team. Tavarez (3-4, 5.25 ERA) will be given the ball to start the series opener. The right-hander, who made 196 appearances out of the bullpen for San Francisco from 1997-99, is 2-3 with a 3.62 ERA in 13 appearances - two starts - versus the Giants since he left them.
The Giants have offensive woes of their own, caused by Bonds' lousy streak and the absences of Klesko, Aurilia, Winn and Alfonzo.
Athletics (Haren) (RL) (2.26 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
Actually thought of playing this one with 10 units on the moneyline, but this is a better investment me thinks. I know it's going out on a limb a bit, backing up the A's on the runline, but the price reflects the fact they're not the best offensive team out there, despite the fact they're one of the hottest teams in June, this year as well as previous ones.
Dan Haren (7-2, 1.58 ERA) is an absolute ace this year, and one of the main Cy Young award candidates.
I'm well aware this is a game in which statements are made, since Tony La Russa has spent 10 years coaching the Athletics before taking over St Louis. Haren, on the other side, wasn't always an ace. He used to play for the Cards, and went 6-10 with a 4.85 ERA in 28 appearances, including 19 starts, for the team from 2003-04.
But that's all in the past. Present time says, the Cards are a rather erratic bunch at the moment. They were showing some signs of waking up (especially in the offense, lead by Pujols), but now they slumping again. Or how else do you call a complete meltdown in Kansas City. This team is in complete disarray, which is no surprise considering they're missing both Mulder and Carpenter from the rotation since the season started.
They need some incentive on the mound, instead of trying to erase what guys like Wainwright or their tonight's starter, Brendan Looper (6-5, 4.12 ERA) mess up.
Looper however, has been quite succesful this year, even though he's slowly starting to show his true face: he is 0-2 with a 7.64 ERA in his last three outings.
Not sold on Haren yet, perhaps? How about this: Haren is 7-0 with a 1.48 ERA and .170 opponents batting average over his last 11 starts, and 4-0 in seven home starts.
And we're talking AL lineups. These guys are hot and the Cards, despite the fact they might be making a statement (ex coach, players facing ex teammate on the mound) I don't think they have the cohesion they would need to beat the A's right now. Perhaps with Blanton on the mound, but Danny Haren, I've been watching this guy a lot this year, and I can't see passed the A's W here.
Leans:
White Sox/Pittsburgh UNDER.
Who is going to score here? I know Maholm is weak but CWS are hitting .232 as a team. Garland, on the other hand, will have to contain guys who were hitting over their pirate heads for 3 games during which they put 21 runs on the board. But when pus came to shove (read: Gorzelanny on the mound, streak expected, momentum mode: on) they shat the fan, and lost 0-6.
LA Dodgers
Santana is a roadkill and Lowe has been improving. The thing that is putting me off here is the fact the Angels are hitting again. And we're talking clutch hitting. Over 8 seems appetizing as well.
I did think Owings would make a compelling bet but the closer I looked at it, the more I thought Baltimore will win this one. So a no bet for me, the price is fair I think.
Harry Leroy starts today for the Blue Jays. He's been erratic over the last month, and even though he should dominate the lowly Nats, these guys are in a solid hitting streak right now and the Jays are so non dependable it's starting to be funny. I know Doc's a beast, but I can't lay this much chalk here, and I love CC's Injuns far more.
Chances are, I'll be eating my words after Toronto wins 11-2 and Indians snatch another 1-0 win in the 10th. Gosh I hope not.
Oh yeah, another small lean would be Florida and Kansas not exceeding the 9 run limit. Kansas might have used all their runs last night, and Florida will be playing a road game against Meche on the mound. Mitre is solid as well. Initial lean was Florida but after talking to Unicorn I decided to scratch it. Under is the only lean.
Let's make this a winning day. :cheers: :shake:
.'an_horse' :Yahoo_59:
