Satyr
Paster of Muppets
MLB 2007: 25 W-1V-16 L +50.67 units
Lost with the anemic Yankee offense last night, I had only one play, as I had hoped the Yanks will come out blazing, guess what they were shut out at home, the losing streak is 6 and counting.
I would give the Red Sox a chance tonight, even though the Yanks should want this one more, and I don't like Dice-K is on the road here in a huge clash, after all the NYY hitters already flamed him once. Don't like the price to be tailing the Yanks, and won't be fading them either. We got our fair share of Yankee fade money during the series at Tropicana.
Ok, let's get to business, hopefully we'll wash out the bitter taste from last night.
Tigers (RL) (2.48 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
I would normally play 8 units on ML here, as it fits the winner estimation right, but I'm not interested in laying that much chalk, odds like 1.67 are of no interest to me here, the runline offers far more value and I don't think this one will be a close game.
What's the deal with the Twins then? They still have a winning record (12-10), meaning just drifting above .500, but they are a team of many woes. Not only is Liriano out of the lineup due injury, they've got Hunter on and off after coming off the DL, they've got Castillo out and are generally battered, their chemistry is far from their last year's postseason.
They're usually far more dominant at the Metrodome than in road games, so we're fading a typical home team who are bruised, who will send out Ramon Ortiz, whose numbers are severely misleading this year (2.48 ERA). So far he's been more than dominant, but I expect him to get back to his usual self against a classy lineup such as the Tiger one is, after all he didn't have much success against them in the past (6+ ERA).
Detroit will possibly be missing Guillen from the lineup (listed as questionable) but they have a considerably deep roster and should manage well without him especially at home.
Even if this one comes down to bullpens I would take the Tigers, even though both pens have been underachieving so far.
Mariners (1.74 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Mariners (RL) (2.60 @ Pinnacle) 2 units
You're probably asking why I'm favoring the Mariners so much at this spot, featuring a pitcher who hasn't been reliable this year. The reason is simple, this is as much a pro-Mariner bet as it is a fade of the Royals. We don't have the chance to fade them often at this number on the road, they still have a sub par lineup and are prone to huge letdowns on the road. They will send out Jorge De La Rosa, who has been one of their most successful pitcher this year, after all you don't see a 2-1, 3.04 ERA pitcher wearing a Royals uniform that often, he didn't face lowly position teams either, Detroit (twice), Toronto and Minnesota, but these numbers are a tad misleading as well, as he failed to make it past the sixth inning in either of his next two starts, giving up four earned runs in each game.
Seattle are far from being a top team in terms of offense, but they're on fire at the moment, coming off a two-game series sweep against Oakland, winning 3 in a row. Plus, they're hitting lefties well quite usually, and I don't expect tonight to be any different.
Kansas are sub par in every area of the game, and even though the M's aren't top notch either, they have a talented enough lineup to dismiss the Royals early and keep the lead throughout the game.
They'll send out Horacio Ramirez (1-1, 6.30 ERA) who has been awful so far this year, but is a pitcher I would expect to even these numbers out as season progresses. I remember watching him last year with the Braves, he had a few very good periods and his stuff is far from disastrous.
The Royals batting lineup is a very impatient, poor one on the road, and I'm feeling they're getting way too much respect here.
Devil Rays (Shields) (2.30 @ Pinnacle) 2 units
Devil Rays (1st 5 innings) (2.26 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Give me this sort of value with Shields starting against a not so potent lineup and I'll take it every time. He's far from being a Cy Young potential, but he's had some solid stuff this year. He matched a franchise record with 12 strikeouts in his last start on Sunday. The right-hander allowed two runs and two hits in eight innings, but didn't earn a decision after the Devil Rays bullpen gave up four ninth-inning runs to lose 6-4 to Cleveland.
Typical Devil Rays business, one would say, and would be accurate. I'll spread my action pretty evenly on the 1st 5 innings and ML, giving a slight advantage to the 1st half bet. I will however take the ML as well, since I feel the Rays have shown the ability to hit situationally and stay deep in the games using their offense.
Oakland are severely bruised, missing a few of their crucial men in Swisher and Bradley, also useful Kotsay and Kielty.
Chad Gaudin (1-0, 1.85 ERA) has been quite effective for the A's, but I feel this one will be about run support, or in Gaudin's case, the lack of it.
The downside of this pick would be Baldelli being questionable for the series.
However, I still feel the A's are the more troubled team here.
I could add a play or two later on. Leans:
Giants (Zito)
Toronto-Texas over 9.5
Cincinnati (Milton)
Good luck guys.:cheers:
Lost with the anemic Yankee offense last night, I had only one play, as I had hoped the Yanks will come out blazing, guess what they were shut out at home, the losing streak is 6 and counting.
I would give the Red Sox a chance tonight, even though the Yanks should want this one more, and I don't like Dice-K is on the road here in a huge clash, after all the NYY hitters already flamed him once. Don't like the price to be tailing the Yanks, and won't be fading them either. We got our fair share of Yankee fade money during the series at Tropicana.
Ok, let's get to business, hopefully we'll wash out the bitter taste from last night.
Tigers (RL) (2.48 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
I would normally play 8 units on ML here, as it fits the winner estimation right, but I'm not interested in laying that much chalk, odds like 1.67 are of no interest to me here, the runline offers far more value and I don't think this one will be a close game.
What's the deal with the Twins then? They still have a winning record (12-10), meaning just drifting above .500, but they are a team of many woes. Not only is Liriano out of the lineup due injury, they've got Hunter on and off after coming off the DL, they've got Castillo out and are generally battered, their chemistry is far from their last year's postseason.
They're usually far more dominant at the Metrodome than in road games, so we're fading a typical home team who are bruised, who will send out Ramon Ortiz, whose numbers are severely misleading this year (2.48 ERA). So far he's been more than dominant, but I expect him to get back to his usual self against a classy lineup such as the Tiger one is, after all he didn't have much success against them in the past (6+ ERA).
Detroit will possibly be missing Guillen from the lineup (listed as questionable) but they have a considerably deep roster and should manage well without him especially at home.
Even if this one comes down to bullpens I would take the Tigers, even though both pens have been underachieving so far.
Mariners (1.74 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Mariners (RL) (2.60 @ Pinnacle) 2 units
You're probably asking why I'm favoring the Mariners so much at this spot, featuring a pitcher who hasn't been reliable this year. The reason is simple, this is as much a pro-Mariner bet as it is a fade of the Royals. We don't have the chance to fade them often at this number on the road, they still have a sub par lineup and are prone to huge letdowns on the road. They will send out Jorge De La Rosa, who has been one of their most successful pitcher this year, after all you don't see a 2-1, 3.04 ERA pitcher wearing a Royals uniform that often, he didn't face lowly position teams either, Detroit (twice), Toronto and Minnesota, but these numbers are a tad misleading as well, as he failed to make it past the sixth inning in either of his next two starts, giving up four earned runs in each game.
Seattle are far from being a top team in terms of offense, but they're on fire at the moment, coming off a two-game series sweep against Oakland, winning 3 in a row. Plus, they're hitting lefties well quite usually, and I don't expect tonight to be any different.
Kansas are sub par in every area of the game, and even though the M's aren't top notch either, they have a talented enough lineup to dismiss the Royals early and keep the lead throughout the game.
They'll send out Horacio Ramirez (1-1, 6.30 ERA) who has been awful so far this year, but is a pitcher I would expect to even these numbers out as season progresses. I remember watching him last year with the Braves, he had a few very good periods and his stuff is far from disastrous.
The Royals batting lineup is a very impatient, poor one on the road, and I'm feeling they're getting way too much respect here.
Devil Rays (Shields) (2.30 @ Pinnacle) 2 units
Devil Rays (1st 5 innings) (2.26 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Give me this sort of value with Shields starting against a not so potent lineup and I'll take it every time. He's far from being a Cy Young potential, but he's had some solid stuff this year. He matched a franchise record with 12 strikeouts in his last start on Sunday. The right-hander allowed two runs and two hits in eight innings, but didn't earn a decision after the Devil Rays bullpen gave up four ninth-inning runs to lose 6-4 to Cleveland.
Typical Devil Rays business, one would say, and would be accurate. I'll spread my action pretty evenly on the 1st 5 innings and ML, giving a slight advantage to the 1st half bet. I will however take the ML as well, since I feel the Rays have shown the ability to hit situationally and stay deep in the games using their offense.
Oakland are severely bruised, missing a few of their crucial men in Swisher and Bradley, also useful Kotsay and Kielty.
Chad Gaudin (1-0, 1.85 ERA) has been quite effective for the A's, but I feel this one will be about run support, or in Gaudin's case, the lack of it.
The downside of this pick would be Baldelli being questionable for the series.
However, I still feel the A's are the more troubled team here.
I could add a play or two later on. Leans:
Giants (Zito)
Toronto-Texas over 9.5
Cincinnati (Milton)
Good luck guys.:cheers:
illow:
