GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
Yesterday: -2.4625 units
An inauspicious start at CTG. Here's what I played today so far:
KANSAS CITY +193 (1.25 UNITS) - How ridiculous is this line? Look closely at how similar these two starting pitchers are:
Pettitte 156 innings, 173 hits, 75 earned runs (4.32 ERA), 17 HR's, 119:41 K:BB ratio, 1.37 WHIP
Meche: 153 innings, 147 hits, 72 earned runs (4.24 ERA), 14 HR's, 121:58 K:BB ratio, 1.34 WHIP
Meanwhile Pettitte is regressing and Meche is progressing.
In Pettitte's last 3 starts, he has lasted just 17.3 innings and allowed 27 hits, 17 earned runs (8.83 ERA) with a 12:8 K:BB ratio. This season against the Roylas, he has tossed 13.3 innings and allowed 15 hits, 11 earned runs (7.43 ERA) with a 4:4 K:BB ratio. Overall the Royals, are 36 for 122 against Pettitte (.295). The Yanks are 3-7 their last 10 and 13-12 since the ALL-sTAR BREAK.
Meche has 12 straight starts of allowing 4 runs or less which means he keeps the Royals in the game. 6 of his last 9 starts have been qulaity starts. In his last 5 starts, he is 4-0 and has thrown 32.7 innings and allowed just 21 hits, 9 earned runs (2.48 ERA) with a 33:16 K:BB ratio.
Neither team has a bullpen advantage.
So the Yanks are 2:1 favorites?
MECHE is 9-0 (+15.3 Units) as a road underdog of +150 to +200 over the last 2 seasons.
At this line, it is impossible for me to ignore the Royals.
PHILLIES -123 (1.5 UNITS) - In Jamie Moyer's last 12 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or less. He turns 46 years old in November. truly amazing.
TEXAS +100 (1.5 UNITS) - With Crawford and Longoria gone, a mediocre offense is a lot worse. With Percival headed to the disabled list again, a solid bullpen is weaker and has been used a lot lately. In Garza's last 4 road starts, he has tossed 24.7 innings and allowed 34 hits, 16 eanred runs (5.84 ERA) with a 16:8 K:BB ratio. Hot weather in Texas and a much more potent lineup should negate pitching deficiencies.
OVER CUBS/FLA 8.5 RUNS (+103) (1.5 UNITS) - Carlos Zambrano's velocity is down and there are rumors about a tired shoulder. I am getting a flashback to this exact time last season. Last year on 8/8, Zambrano was roughed up and in 5.7 innings, he allowed 8 hits and 7 earned runs. It sent him into a tailspin where over a stretch of 5 starts, he threw 28.7 innings and allowed 43 hits and 30 3aenred runs (9/42 ERA). Now to the present. 6 days ago, on 8/9, he lasted 4.3 innings and was shelled for 10 hits and 9 earned runs. Meanwhile Josh Johnson has been solid but not overpowering. In his last 19.7 innings, he has a 10:8 K:BB ratio and this is the second time in three weeks the Cubs will see him. He allowed 10 base runners in 5.3 innings and was fortunate to escape with just 2 runs allowed. In the Cubs' last 8 road games, they have scored 70 runs.
BOSTON -111 (1.25 UNITS) - Paul Byrd has been outstanding since the all-star break. In his 4 starts, he has thrown 29 innings and allowed 25 hits, 4 earned runs (1.24 ERA), with a 12:7 K:BB ratio. He just stopped the BJays in a complete game win for Cleveland where he allowed just 6 hits and 2 earned runs. Roy Halladay comes in off a 130 pitch total, by far is highest of the year and one of the highest in the majors this season. The Sox are curshing the ball. Byrd is 17-8 (+11.3 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Jays are 13-18 (-7.9 Units) when Halladay starts against Boston and Halladay has an ERA of 4.31 and a WHIP of 1.282 in those games.
OVER BALT/DET 10.5 (+103) (1.25 UNITS) - Baltimore averages 5.3 runs against lefties with a .289 average and Detroit averages 5.2 runs against lefties with a .277 average. Baltimore is 22-8 OVER against left-handed starters this season and 26-11 OVER (+13.5 Units) in the second half this season. DETROIT is 17-3 OVER (+14.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. Both bullpens are horrible of late.
PITTSBURGH +136 (1.25 UNITS) - Mets are overpriced here coming off a sweep of lowly Washington. In Pelfrey's last 4 road starts, he has thrown 23 innings and allowed 28 hits, 15 earned runs (5.87 ERA) with a 18:6 K:BB ratio. In his last 3 starts overall, he has thrown 15.3 innings and allowed 24 hits, 13 earned runs (7.63 ERA) with a 9:4 K:BB ratio. He is 21-23 in his career with a 4.68 ERA and is more than capable. In his first start at Philly, he threw 6 solid innings and allowed just 4 hits and no earned runs. The Mets are just 13-12 since the all-star break and are 29-33 on the road while the Bucs are solid at home at 33-28.
UNDER STL/CINCY 1ST 5 INNS 5.5 RUNS (-120) (1.25 UNITS)
-still mulling over a few-
Thoughts are welcome even if they are on opposite sides. :shake:
An inauspicious start at CTG. Here's what I played today so far:
KANSAS CITY +193 (1.25 UNITS) - How ridiculous is this line? Look closely at how similar these two starting pitchers are:
Pettitte 156 innings, 173 hits, 75 earned runs (4.32 ERA), 17 HR's, 119:41 K:BB ratio, 1.37 WHIP
Meche: 153 innings, 147 hits, 72 earned runs (4.24 ERA), 14 HR's, 121:58 K:BB ratio, 1.34 WHIP
Meanwhile Pettitte is regressing and Meche is progressing.
In Pettitte's last 3 starts, he has lasted just 17.3 innings and allowed 27 hits, 17 earned runs (8.83 ERA) with a 12:8 K:BB ratio. This season against the Roylas, he has tossed 13.3 innings and allowed 15 hits, 11 earned runs (7.43 ERA) with a 4:4 K:BB ratio. Overall the Royals, are 36 for 122 against Pettitte (.295). The Yanks are 3-7 their last 10 and 13-12 since the ALL-sTAR BREAK.
Meche has 12 straight starts of allowing 4 runs or less which means he keeps the Royals in the game. 6 of his last 9 starts have been qulaity starts. In his last 5 starts, he is 4-0 and has thrown 32.7 innings and allowed just 21 hits, 9 earned runs (2.48 ERA) with a 33:16 K:BB ratio.
Neither team has a bullpen advantage.
So the Yanks are 2:1 favorites?
MECHE is 9-0 (+15.3 Units) as a road underdog of +150 to +200 over the last 2 seasons.
At this line, it is impossible for me to ignore the Royals.
PHILLIES -123 (1.5 UNITS) - In Jamie Moyer's last 12 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or less. He turns 46 years old in November. truly amazing.
TEXAS +100 (1.5 UNITS) - With Crawford and Longoria gone, a mediocre offense is a lot worse. With Percival headed to the disabled list again, a solid bullpen is weaker and has been used a lot lately. In Garza's last 4 road starts, he has tossed 24.7 innings and allowed 34 hits, 16 eanred runs (5.84 ERA) with a 16:8 K:BB ratio. Hot weather in Texas and a much more potent lineup should negate pitching deficiencies.
OVER CUBS/FLA 8.5 RUNS (+103) (1.5 UNITS) - Carlos Zambrano's velocity is down and there are rumors about a tired shoulder. I am getting a flashback to this exact time last season. Last year on 8/8, Zambrano was roughed up and in 5.7 innings, he allowed 8 hits and 7 earned runs. It sent him into a tailspin where over a stretch of 5 starts, he threw 28.7 innings and allowed 43 hits and 30 3aenred runs (9/42 ERA). Now to the present. 6 days ago, on 8/9, he lasted 4.3 innings and was shelled for 10 hits and 9 earned runs. Meanwhile Josh Johnson has been solid but not overpowering. In his last 19.7 innings, he has a 10:8 K:BB ratio and this is the second time in three weeks the Cubs will see him. He allowed 10 base runners in 5.3 innings and was fortunate to escape with just 2 runs allowed. In the Cubs' last 8 road games, they have scored 70 runs.
BOSTON -111 (1.25 UNITS) - Paul Byrd has been outstanding since the all-star break. In his 4 starts, he has thrown 29 innings and allowed 25 hits, 4 earned runs (1.24 ERA), with a 12:7 K:BB ratio. He just stopped the BJays in a complete game win for Cleveland where he allowed just 6 hits and 2 earned runs. Roy Halladay comes in off a 130 pitch total, by far is highest of the year and one of the highest in the majors this season. The Sox are curshing the ball. Byrd is 17-8 (+11.3 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Jays are 13-18 (-7.9 Units) when Halladay starts against Boston and Halladay has an ERA of 4.31 and a WHIP of 1.282 in those games.
OVER BALT/DET 10.5 (+103) (1.25 UNITS) - Baltimore averages 5.3 runs against lefties with a .289 average and Detroit averages 5.2 runs against lefties with a .277 average. Baltimore is 22-8 OVER against left-handed starters this season and 26-11 OVER (+13.5 Units) in the second half this season. DETROIT is 17-3 OVER (+14.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. Both bullpens are horrible of late.
PITTSBURGH +136 (1.25 UNITS) - Mets are overpriced here coming off a sweep of lowly Washington. In Pelfrey's last 4 road starts, he has thrown 23 innings and allowed 28 hits, 15 earned runs (5.87 ERA) with a 18:6 K:BB ratio. In his last 3 starts overall, he has thrown 15.3 innings and allowed 24 hits, 13 earned runs (7.63 ERA) with a 9:4 K:BB ratio. He is 21-23 in his career with a 4.68 ERA and is more than capable. In his first start at Philly, he threw 6 solid innings and allowed just 4 hits and no earned runs. The Mets are just 13-12 since the all-star break and are 29-33 on the road while the Bucs are solid at home at 33-28.
UNDER STL/CINCY 1ST 5 INNS 5.5 RUNS (-120) (1.25 UNITS)
-still mulling over a few-
Thoughts are welcome even if they are on opposite sides. :shake:
Last edited:
