MLB Friday 6/17

[Wiretowire]

YTD +3780
5-2 last

All x50 each overs -140 unders -130

Phil/Wash #1 under 11 - I'm not seeing all these runs with these pitchers.
Atl/Cubs over 7 1/2 - Ironic, because I am seeing a shit ton of runs with these pitchers.
Balt +2 1/2 -180 - Bizarro land because Baz looks bad and Kremer has looked good for the Birds yet Baz is favored. Because of the TB name?
NYY ML -110 - Actually a very good pitching matchup that should go under but I'll be taking the Yankees at -110 against just about anyone.
CHW/Hou over 7 - Valdez had a bad last and Giolito really sucks. I know you say "But his name!!!" Check out his last 3 starts then tell me what you think.
LA ML -260 - Plesac won't be beating Kershaw any time soon. If you give runs in this one to cut the odds, then you haven't listened to a word I have said.

I don't often do this but since I do like money here goes.

LA to win series (-300) against Cle -1500/+500.

And if you say you can't bet that because of the high odds again you haven't heard a word I've said. Seriously, if high odds keep you from betting a big favorite please save your money and wait for football season because the books are going to kill you every year in MLB. GL

 

[inZane]

Nice job again Wire!

Good luck today...

:cheers3:

 

[chipnotized]

Combining large faves in a series parlay is good fun this time of year. I've got a few open parlays that I'll be tacking the Dodgers onto this weekend.

GL

 

[Wiretowire]

As always thanks Inzane. I appreciate it. GL

Parlay is a really great idea Chip. I always say bet half your normal amount on straight big favs to lessen the risk but parlays are a perfect way to play them. Thanks. Good stuff. GL

 

[Wiretowire]

I need to clarify a point I made about betting big favorites. A friend of mine read that and called me to tell me I need to explain that more fully. After talking it over, I think he is right.

All big favorites don't win just because they are big favorites. You shouldn't bet a team like the Dodgers tonight because they are - a million. But when you see a Kershaw, who has really pitched well recently, and is pitching at home, with the Dodgers offense going up against Plesac who had a bad last and the Cle offense on the road then you absolutely can't let big odds scare you off the bet. You still have to cap the games. You can't just run through the list of odds and bet the big favorites. If you did that, Balt would have handed you your ass yesterday when they crushed the Jays at -240. But and I can't stress this enough, leave names of pitchers and teams out of it. Cap blind and you will make a lot of money betting both big favorites and big dogs. Of course, I always take plus runs on the big dogs like I did winning with Balt yesterday but that's just me.

Now big favorites will lose occasionally even when it sets up like that Dodger game tonight but if you cap them as a winner and don't at least bet 1/2 your usual amount on them then you will leave a lot of money on the table over the course of a season. Books will beat you when you leave money on the table. And one final bit of advice..... if you have a favorite team never, never, never make a bet on them one way or another. Just enjoy it when they win and at least when they lose you won't have to pay money on top of your favorite team losing. (And no I don't have as favorite team not even my old team CHW. I hope that makes more sense. GL

 

[2daBank]

i almost never bet big favs and mlb consistently one my better sports. more than one way to skin a cat bro!

 

[Wiretowire]

Bank I agree there is always more than one way to bet but I am curious what is your odds cut off you won’t go above? Thanks. GL

 

[Charles0619]

Wire I really enjoy hearing your opinions and insights. It seems like you have done pretty well betting the big dogs +2.5 runs. It never occurred to me to do this until I started following your thread. I get a bit scared with big favs like Bank. Try to avoid moneylines over -180 but maybe I need to rethink this. Anyway great job - you are really a wealth of knowledge

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks for the kind words Charles I really appreciate it. Many people balk at high odds. I respect Bank and his opinion and that's why I am curious what his cutoffs are if any on high odds. I know a lot of guys won't lay more than -150. Yours is -180 and that's interesting to me.

I don't profess to know everything there is to know about betting MLB but I have been successful for many years the way I do it. But that doesn't mean I can't learn new angles and ideas from others which is what these forums are for in the first place. I am not saying every one should bet those high odds just because the books are saying run away. But all I am saying is if you cap a game and you are as sure as you can be that a side will win don't let the books high odds talk you out of the bet. Great to hear from you. GL

 

[2daBank]

Bank I agree there is always more than one way to bet but I am curious what is your odds cut off you won’t go above? Thanks. GL

I don’t really have a cut off of any arbitrary number, not like I think the juice matters, ultimately if you can hit at a clip above what the odds imply it doesn’t matter what the price is. I just prefer betting dogs and totals (lot of pitcher props now that I’ve discovered props!), I’m more confident I can hit those well above the percent I need to turn a profit. Most years I’m able to live in the 50-55% range with plus money plays so for me it just doesn’t make a lot of sense to play many favs. Maybe I could get better at it if I focused on them more but I’ve never really been able to hit them at a clip above the threshold ya need to be profitable.

Could just be variance and the fact I play so few. Honestly I’ve always thought playin favs in mlb was crazy but watching you and lefty Ive come to see it doable and have been trying to expand what I’ll play a little more. I’d like to be little more well rounded as I think it easier to stay away from prolonged slumps If you not always making the same kind of plays which in my case has always been dogs I think are coin flips. I lay juice with the pitcher props all the time so I’m certainly not opposed to it, it just not the way I ever been comfortable betting mlb sides. As I said lately I have been trying to play some, it just hurt my feelings when ya said the thing bout “no businsss betting mlb without big favs”! Lol

 

[chipnotized]

As always thanks Inzane. I appreciate it. GL

Parlay is a really great idea Chip. I always say bet half your normal amount on straight big favs to lessen the risk but parlays are a perfect way to play them. Thanks. Good stuff. GL

A little NL West Series parlay for the weekend:

SF -220 over Pitt
SD -165 over Col
LAD -280 over Cle

 

[Wiretowire]

Bank, of course it was not my intention to hurt you or anyone else's feelings with my statement. That statement was made for those people that live with strict rules about not ever betting odds more than -150. People bash high odds in MLB calling it crazy so much that bettors have a tendency to think it's a mistake to ever bet them. I was just trying to, and obviously poorly at that, make the point that if you never bet a game you are sure will win because of high odds you are playing into the books hands. Which is of course is why the pricks set those high odds to scare people off. There are occasions when you have to try those. Not all the time but you can't let the book scare you off it. I always said you don't pay the juice when you win. But you have to have capped it right or you will pay the juice. Thanks for giving me insight into how you bet. I appreciate it. GL

Chip that's a good looking parlay. I will root for you. Should pay over 2-1. Nice. And you got better odds than I did on the LA series. Good stuff. GL