Wiretowire
Pretty much a regular
YTD +1470
1-2 last
I bet stupidly yesterday. I don't mind losing. It's part of the game and it's bound to happen sometimes. But I fucking hate it when I am stupid. I took Phil ML -150. No problem there. I also took LA ML -300 and there's no problem taking those high odds despite what people say against it if I am reasonably confident it will win. Yes, sometimes they lose but I win many more of those high odds bets than I lose and remember I am not saying bet them just because there is a big favorite. You have to cap the game. Individually both bets are good as far as I am concerned. But when there are only two bets for the day, I know better than to fail to look at the math properly. Here's what I should have done.
Betting like I did:
Phil +50/-75
LA +50/-150
Win both I am +100. Split and I still lose either -25 or -100 overall. Lose both and I am -225.
What I should have done is parlay them. -50 to win +65. Lose one or both and I only lose $50. Win both and I am only $35 off what I would have won if I had won both straight bets.
Now I am weird about one thing. If I had bet 3 or more games, then I stay with the straight bets and don't parlay. As you know I am not afraid of high odds but when there are only two straights going the math works against me. If I have 3 games I figure, and maybe wrongly, that going 2-1 will keep the losses down. As I said I am weird about such things because you don't have to tell me losing all my straight bets regardless of how many will still result in big losses. I just don't get blanked very often with 3 or more so I don't think that way. Probably not logical but I did say I am weird about that. Anyway, I should have parlayed yesterday and didn't. I would love to use the excuse I was drinking when I made those bets, but I actually think clearer when I have been drinking. At least that's what my wife tells me.
On a more positive note ..... Those of you that have Betmgm (or another book with these kind of offerings) here's an idea that has worked very well for me. Go into any game through "all wagers". From there go into "totals". Scroll down past the total of 6 and hit "show more". Now scroll down all the way to the 13 1/2 or 14 1/2 offerings. Take the under in any game that has odds less than -2000. Put 6 or more of these together and make your usual unit bet. Here's a hint. If you remember how I showed you the way I cap games, I said I put the last 3 starts Earned runs (only) of each pitcher next to the team names. Like today Colo/SF Colo starter is 2 5 3 and the SF starter is 3 0 1. If 5 of those 6 numbers are under 5 that is a good game to count as a game that will score less than 14 or 15 runs. Don't just take all the games that are under -2000. Cap them using my method first. Just a thought.
By the way, this information is top secret, and I will disavow any reference to it. I will also not answer any questions about it. This thread will self-destruct in 10 seconds.
What was I saying?
All x50 each. Yes, the line you can get is 1/2 run more because I am -140 on each total removing the hook. If it goes to one full run higher then don't bet the damn thing. News flash: Lines do move over the course of the day.
Wash/Phil over 7
TB/Tor over 8
Cle ML -120 - Minn has scored 1 run in their last 3 games. Probably break out tonight but their starter had a bad last and Cle starter has been pretty solid. Nice low odds on the home team.
Parlay:
Cle +2 1/2 -350
Atlanta +2 1/2 -650
LA +2 1/2 -600
-50/+35
GL
1-2 last
I bet stupidly yesterday. I don't mind losing. It's part of the game and it's bound to happen sometimes. But I fucking hate it when I am stupid. I took Phil ML -150. No problem there. I also took LA ML -300 and there's no problem taking those high odds despite what people say against it if I am reasonably confident it will win. Yes, sometimes they lose but I win many more of those high odds bets than I lose and remember I am not saying bet them just because there is a big favorite. You have to cap the game. Individually both bets are good as far as I am concerned. But when there are only two bets for the day, I know better than to fail to look at the math properly. Here's what I should have done.
Betting like I did:
Phil +50/-75
LA +50/-150
Win both I am +100. Split and I still lose either -25 or -100 overall. Lose both and I am -225.
What I should have done is parlay them. -50 to win +65. Lose one or both and I only lose $50. Win both and I am only $35 off what I would have won if I had won both straight bets.
Now I am weird about one thing. If I had bet 3 or more games, then I stay with the straight bets and don't parlay. As you know I am not afraid of high odds but when there are only two straights going the math works against me. If I have 3 games I figure, and maybe wrongly, that going 2-1 will keep the losses down. As I said I am weird about such things because you don't have to tell me losing all my straight bets regardless of how many will still result in big losses. I just don't get blanked very often with 3 or more so I don't think that way. Probably not logical but I did say I am weird about that. Anyway, I should have parlayed yesterday and didn't. I would love to use the excuse I was drinking when I made those bets, but I actually think clearer when I have been drinking. At least that's what my wife tells me.
On a more positive note ..... Those of you that have Betmgm (or another book with these kind of offerings) here's an idea that has worked very well for me. Go into any game through "all wagers". From there go into "totals". Scroll down past the total of 6 and hit "show more". Now scroll down all the way to the 13 1/2 or 14 1/2 offerings. Take the under in any game that has odds less than -2000. Put 6 or more of these together and make your usual unit bet. Here's a hint. If you remember how I showed you the way I cap games, I said I put the last 3 starts Earned runs (only) of each pitcher next to the team names. Like today Colo/SF Colo starter is 2 5 3 and the SF starter is 3 0 1. If 5 of those 6 numbers are under 5 that is a good game to count as a game that will score less than 14 or 15 runs. Don't just take all the games that are under -2000. Cap them using my method first. Just a thought.
By the way, this information is top secret, and I will disavow any reference to it. I will also not answer any questions about it. This thread will self-destruct in 10 seconds.
What was I saying?
All x50 each. Yes, the line you can get is 1/2 run more because I am -140 on each total removing the hook. If it goes to one full run higher then don't bet the damn thing. News flash: Lines do move over the course of the day.
Wash/Phil over 7
TB/Tor over 8
Cle ML -120 - Minn has scored 1 run in their last 3 games. Probably break out tonight but their starter had a bad last and Cle starter has been pretty solid. Nice low odds on the home team.
Parlay:
Cle +2 1/2 -350
Atlanta +2 1/2 -650
LA +2 1/2 -600
-50/+35
GL
