MLB Friday 4/28

[Wiretowire]

YTD +3130
5-1 last 1-0 GS - And to my bookie "Yippie Kie Ya Motherfucker!

Bank, you said something yesterday that is so right on. I am trying to beat the books so much I forget they aren't trying to set the perfect line. They are trying to set the line that generates both sides are bet. They get rich if both sides are bet evenly because they don't really care who wins. That is also why they pad totals because only morons like me will bet unders. They are no fun, and the books know the general public hate betting them, so they add points to take advantage of that bettor bias to overs. Good stuff. GL

LOL Tim. That work thing comes from my wife of 33 years who looked at me and said, "I know you are retired but I can't look at you sitting around all day anymore so get off your ass and go do something." To which I stood up, stared at her, puffed out my chest and said loudly and with force "Yes dear." GL

All x50 each - Because we sometimes get new people following these posts, I will repeat what most of you understand. I buy 1/2 off totals I bet over and I buy 1/2 run on totals I bet under. So, when you see any totals I bet they are always 1/2 run away from the actual line is. Overs usually go off at -140 odds and unders go off at -130 odds. That varies but I use those because it evens out in the long run and I don't have to worry about doing the math for -125 odds.

KC +2 1/2 -160 - Lyles hasn't been great but Lopez had a very bad last against light hitting Wash. If you have followed me through the years, you know I like going against pitchers who had a bad last start because it could mean an injury. Of course, he could have just had a bad day and will throw a perfect game today but those + runs buy some insurance and the -160 price is reasonable.
Cubs/Miami over 7 - Here we go again stupidly betting an over in Miami but both Stroman and Luzardo had bad last starts so I figure at least one of them will repeat that. And if they don't 3-3 for a push is not a big hill to climb.
Balt ML -120 - Return battle of Rodriguez's. These two met their last start and fought to a 2-1 Balt win in 10 innings. Balt was in Balt but favored -170 in this same pitching matchup. Home field counts only because you get to bat last but getting Balt -120 is a good sale price.
Pitt ML -120 - Another sale price on Pitt and Rich Hill, who I don't care for, but has pitched very well in his last 3 starts. Kuhl is more likely to blow up so good road odds has me taking Pitt.
Atlanta ML -130 - Fried has been lights out allowing just 1 run on 11 hits in his last 14 innings over 3 starts. Peterson for the Mets has allowed 13 runs on 14 hits over 11 innings in just two starts. Which one do you think we should bet on?
TB ML -140 - These two same pitchers met in their last start and TB won 4-1. TB was home -180 and now -140. Does this mean TB will win again? Hell no. But there is good value in these sale prices.
NYY/Texas over 6 1/2 - This is a just a historical reaction to a total of 7 for me when Yankees play Texas in Texas. These are not even remotely the same teams, but I am morally bound to bet the over.
Phil/Hou over 7 - I think they put 3 runs on the board before Nola throws his first pitch. Valdez is solid but offenses should produce at least 3-3.
Cinn/Oak over 8 - Hate betting overs with Oak and in Oak but these two starters aren't very good.
STL/LA under 9 1/2 - Kind of high total for these two starters don't you think?

GS actual total as of right now 116 1/2, but it will change a run or two by the time they post the GS. Could go up or down. That would make the GS around 124 when they put it up. I saw a lot of good pitching matchups, but I have to think they can find 125 runs in 14 games today. Waiting for the GS to be posted but leaning over and I will most likely be back to add it later. GL

 

[2daBank]

You not alone bro, I freaking love unders. Pretty much every sport I always been better identifying low scoring games compared to high. I’ve actually did way better with overs at start of this year, I’ve even passed on several cause in past they just smelled like the kind of over I would bet and nobody score! This year those obvious overs seem to be hitting more. I assume it has a lot to do with the rule changes and I’d think they will start adjusting up which will prob put me back on mostly unders!! Not like I’m watching anyways but even if I am I’m sick enough to enjoy pitching duels/low scoring games!

Home field is so overrated in prices imo: maybe teams w/l records home and away at end the year justify it but I have a very hard time thinking it makes much difference in a given game, some teams have unusual parks where they built to play there which obviously gives them a edge. I don’t think that the case in Detroit, O’s have just as good a chance beating them here as they did in balty last week imo.

Speaking of which the atl line def seems short considering the starting pitcher edge they have tonight!

Gl

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Bank. I have always preferred unders to overs in MLB but few would believe that as I was called the over king at Covers many years ago. I'm not sure as we talked about earlier the books know what to do to adjust to these game totals. Can't go too far one way or another or guys like me and you will make them pay.

Home field used to be huge in baseball and thank you for not mentioning the fans because as you know they mean nothing in a baseball game. (Probably hear from someone about that fan statement but what the hell. I am always willing to educate the uneducated.) The advantage was last at bats and knowing what you have to do at the end of the game to win. But the new rules negated that a couple of years ago with this extra inning start with a man on second. Don't get me wrong, I like that rule actually but it definitely removed the only real advantage the home team had. That and sleeping in your own bed and not traveling does give an edge to the home team but not enough to make a real difference in winning a game.
One of these days I am going to rant about those new rules, but it isn't because I don't like them, well I like a few of them, it's because I am sick of them being shoved down everyone's throat by MLB. GL

 

[Timh]

Atlanta for me too, BOL Wire. And exactly where are your talents going to good use in the workforce? Back to teaching? Curious what you're interested in at this point? I stay out of trouble at home if I take the garbage out, clean up the kitchen, make the bed and take care of the dogs That pretty much gives me a free pass to play golf, drink and gamble a few of my favorite things.....

 

[Wiretowire]

Total of all games is 114. GS comes out at 122 1/2. That's an 8 1/2 run markup. Normal padding is up 3 to 5 runs. GS should be at 119. Marked up an extra 3 1/2 runs simply because 99% of all bettors love to bet over? Well, Mr. Bookie I agree with you and you always know best. Most bettors hate unders and love overs. You couldn't be more right about this one. Good job!

ADDING>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Grand Salami under 122 1/2 -220/+200

GL

 

[Wiretowire]

Thanks Timh. I appreciate it. I was asked to come back to the high school I worked at last to work part time to help seniors graduate. They are missing credits and Industry Credentials, and I can help them one on one to get what they need. GL

 

[2daBank]

Actually shocked to see nats have a very good team ops vs lhp, never woulda guessed that and I hate rich hill! Always have, lol. Kuhl has pretty bad splits vs lefty hitters which what I always look for in pirates games, with their switch hitters pirates have the ability to stack a lineup with 7 or so hitting from left side!! I have a over lean here but I see rain in forecast which I don’t like.

 

[Wiretowire]

Yeah, it's supposed to rain all day here in Ohio. Rich Hill shocked the hell out of me when I saw his stats. I don't think he is that good. GL

 

[Timh]

Thanks Timh. I appreciate it. I was asked to come back to the high school I worked at last to work part time to help seniors graduate. They are missing credits and Industry Credentials, and I can help them one on one to get what they need. GL

That's really nice Wire, I'm sure you feel good about helping them out :cheers3:

 

[Timh]

Something I didn't realize, bet the Braves at BM and they score 4 in Top 5 and game ends up 4-0 after 5 and is official from MLB perspective but not from BM whose rules say 8.5 innings. I guess this has changed because I thought if official game ie 5 innings the side bet was honored but the total was not?

OFFICIAL GAME TIMES

All full game bets are considered official when:

• The home team is winning after 8½ innings
• The visiting team is winning after 9 full innings
• The game is tied after 9 full innings
• The home team wins in the bottom of the 9t