MLB Friday 4/14

[Wiretowire]

YTD +895
1-1 last

Question? Why are all the talking heads saying Tampa Bay is a "Great" team? It's nice that TB has won 13 games in a row to start the season, but they did it against Detroit, Wash, Oak, and Boston. Not really a cast of good teams this year. In fact, I will wager those are the worst teams in MLB this year. The dog ass Indians won 20 in a row one year and even that clown Billy Beanes team won 20 in a row and neither of those teams were worth a shit by the end of the season. But because TB is winning to start the season they are labeled "Great"? Hey, I have nothing against TB. I have made some good money off them this year. They do seem like a pretty decent team, and I think they will maybe be around for the playoffs, but they need to tone down the hype about them right now.

All x50 each overs -140 unders -130 and you all know I always buy 1/2 a run on or off my total bets unless I state otherwise so this is the last time I will say that -140 -130 shit. If someone comes into my thread and asks why my totals are always lower on overs or higher on unders than other people, which has happened, please set them straight if I don't get back in to see their post and answer it myself. Thanks.

SF ML -130 - good low road odds on the better team.
Phil/Cinn under 10 1/2 - When these same two teams and starters met earlier this year, they scored 10 runs combined. I think they will do better this time.
TB ML -130 - Well hell, I didn't say I wouldn't bet on them. Berrios hasn't looked very good, and Rasmussen has been dominant so far.
Ana/Boston under 10 - Both starters look decent. They always set high totals in Fenway, but I have had good success going under them through the years. Probably lose tonight because I said that.
Balt ML -110 - Again good road odds for the better team. I don't know why I don't like my old team (White Sox) but they just don't impress me.
Texas +2 1/2 -200 - I think Perez is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Add that Garcia has been getting worse each outing and this is worth the risk.
Atlanta ML -130 - Great road odds on the better team.
Mets ML -190 - High chalk but I have to. Senga has been very good, and Kaprielian has been horrible.

If you don't like betting high chalk, I have two things to say to you. 1. Contrary to popular myth it is the only way to win consistently in MLB if it caps out the favorite should win. People proudly say every year they never bet a game with higher than -150 odds and every year they lose overall. 2. Parlay Mets ML -190 with Atlanta ML-130. That two teamer risking 50 will win you 85.

Tempted by Seattle and the Dodgers but I am just going to leave it at that. GL

 

[wiseplayer]

YTD +895
1-1 last

Question? Why are all the talking heads saying Tampa Bay is a "Great" team? It's nice that TB has won 13 games in a row to start the season, but they did it against Detroit, Wash, Oak, and Boston. Not really a cast of good teams this year. In fact, I will wager those are the worst teams in MLB this year. The dog ass Indians won 20 in a row one year and even that clown Billy Beanes team won 20 in a row and neither of those teams were worth a shit by the end of the season. But because TB is winning to start the season they are labeled "Great"? Hey, I have nothing against TB. I have made some good money off them this year. They do seem like a pretty decent team, and I think they will maybe be around for the playoffs, but they need to tone down the hype about them right now.

All x50 each overs -140 unders -130 and you all know I always buy 1/2 a run on or off my total bets unless I state otherwise so this is the last time I will say that -140 -130 shit. If someone comes into my thread and asks why my totals are always lower on overs or higher on unders than other people, which has happened, please set them straight if I don't get back in to see their post and answer it myself. Thanks.

SF ML -130 - good low road odds on the better team.
Phil/Cinn under 10 1/2 - When these same two teams and starters met earlier this year, they scored 10 runs combined. I think they will do better this time.
TB ML -130 - Well hell, I didn't say I wouldn't bet on them. Berrios hasn't looked very good, and Rasmussen has been dominant so far.
Ana/Boston under 10 - Both starters look decent. They always set high totals in Fenway, but I have had good success going under them through the years. Probably lose tonight because I said that.
Balt ML -110 - Again good road odds for the better team. I don't know why I don't like my old team (White Sox) but they just don't impress me.
Texas +2 1/2 -200 - I think Perez is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Add that Garcia has been getting worse each outing and this is worth the risk.
Atlanta ML -130 - Great road odds on the better team.
Mets ML -190 - High chalk but I have to. Senga has been very good, and Kaprielian has been horrible.

If you don't like betting high chalk, I have two things to say to you. 1. Contrary to popular myth it is the only way to win consistently in MLB if it caps out the favorite should win. People proudly say every year they never bet a game with higher than -150 odds and every year they lose overall. 2. Parlay Mets ML -190 with Atlanta ML-130. That two teamer risking 50 will win you 85.

Tempted by Seattle and the Dodgers but I am just going to leave it at that. GL

Your 1st couple sentences holds true in horse racing also. Never thought I’d be into betting the ponies but when it was the only sport going in 2020, I picked it up and make good coin on favorites most likely to win, place and/or show.

 

[2daBank]

I dunno why they even keep track of the longest win streak to start a season, shouldn’t they concern themselves about the most wins at the end the season? Rays are certainly as capable of any the playoffs contenders of winning a ship but I can pretty much damn guarantee they peaking way too early. It’s super funny listening to you rant about the hype then play them, that was worth stopping by for me. I agree with you far as starting pitcher matchup tonight but I feel pretty confident the streak ending in Toronto, dunno if it be tonight but they losing a game sooner than later most likely. Despite score yesterday I thought they basically won with a pretty lucky type inning against a old pitcher and crappy looking lineup. They not gonna see much of that in Toronto, I don’t particularly like berrios cause he a total pain to figure out start to start but his stuff still way better than Kluber who had 7k’s in 4 innings before the wheels fell off with a lot of singles in yesterdays game.

Love the rangers, prob won’t take the runs but I’m sure that increases the win percentage a bunch, I just don’t know the math on if it increases it from +150 to -200 or not? Off top my head what is that like 26% increase in win percentage needed? I have no clue if 2.5 runs adds that much? It is probably close in this game you wouldn’t think rangers are gonna allow a whole bunch of runs. Stros lineup isn’t nearly as imposing as it been the last several years, there lot of pretty easy outs in the starting 9, Seems like a pretty solid bet. Gl today

 

[2daBank]

We will never agree you have to lay juice w Mlb, you actually one of few ppl I’ve seen do well laying it but you don’t go around firing at bunch of big favs either, you lay juice a lot more wisely than I’d say the typical person, @~Utah seems solid w big favs but he plays one a day, that also different than normal person. Rangers +2.5 today at a cheaper price wins way more often than cardinals last night at -230! I lay more juice than I used to cause the props but until 2 years ago at least 70% my plays were plus money every year.

 

[Wiretowire]

Great point Wise. I used to make a living as a kid betting big favorites to show. Also, would box big favorites in 1st and 2nd place in exactas with the field. People would be surprised how often those favorites ran 2nd and bigger exacta payoffs resulted. GL

Bank, I agree with you completely on all you say on TB. I also think TB loses their first game in Toronto. I also think you are right that Texas with Perez is a very live dog tonight at +140. You know I always take the runs, but Texas ML is a good bet. Thank you for the kind words about me laying juice. You do great every year taking + money and your 1st 5 innings bets are unreal. My statement was about those people that never lay more than -150. They run away from anything higher than that and my point is money can be made laying juice even high juice if the situation is right. I can't tell you through the years the number of people that follow my posts that say they never lay more than -150. I always said to them the books are trying to make you run away and you never pay the juice when you win. But you also better know what the hell you are doing if you do lay -200 or more.

Blood and I used to talk about this point a lot. I told him if the odds are -200 and your usual bet is 100 and you aren't comfortable risking 200 then just bet 50 on the -200 game, half your bet, and your risk is still -100. He loved that and said that philosophy changed the way he bet baseball. Just wish he could have taught me how to bet college football. And that is one sport I love but seriously suck at betting. There was no one better than him at college football. GL

 

[wiseplayer]

Great point Wise. I used to make a living as a kid betting big favorites to show. Also, would box big favorites in 1st and 2nd place in exactas with the field. People would be surprised how often those favorites ran 2nd and bigger exacta payoffs resulted. GL

Bank, I agree with you completely on all you say on TB. I also think TB loses their first game in Toronto. I also think you are right that Texas with Perez is a very live dog tonight at +140. You know I always take the runs, but Texas ML is a good bet. Thank you for the kind words about me laying juice. You do great every year taking + money and your 1st 5 innings bets are unreal. My statement was about those people that never lay more than -150. They run away from anything higher than that and my point is money can be made laying juice even high juice if the situation is right. I can't tell you through the years the number of people that follow my posts that say they never lay more than -150. I always said to them the books are trying to make you run away and you never pay the juice when you win. But you also better know what the hell you are doing if you do lay -200 or more.

Blood and I used to talk about this point a lot. I told him if the odds are -200 and your usual bet is 100 and you aren't comfortable risking 200 then just bet 50 on the -200 game, half your bet, and your risk is still -100. He loved that and said that philosophy changed the way he bet baseball. Just wish he could have taught me how to bet college football. And that is one sport I love but seriously suck at betting. There was no one better than him at college football. GL

Blood used to love diming up his Crimson Tide.

 

[2daBank]

setting some arbitrary number you won’t play Is obviously silly and something I was probably guilty of years ago when I was really learning Mlb betting, for me it was just a reminder that I’ve never really been able to play strictly favs in the -150 to -200 range and hit them at a high enough clip to justify capping them. Obviously if oakland keeps trotting out minor leaguers in lineup and more importantly on mound you can feel good playing against them at some those prices long as you regulate yourself managing bankroll, that prob the more important thing w bases above lots of sports, regardless how you play it favs or dogs you need to make sure you don’t put yourself into spots those freaking fav chase systems do that look so good and have you on brink of disaster cause a team hits a losing streak.

 

[Wiretowire]

Wise I can hear him today "Load up on the tide wire. They can't be beat today." Miss him. GL

I agree Bank. I don't think anyone can play strictly favs in the -150 to -200 range and make money in the long run. Agree also, chases will always kill you in the long run. Oakland does look bad, and I bet them over 59 1/2 wins this year. I don't think I will win that. GL

 

[wiseplayer]

Wise I can hear him today "Load up on the tide wire. They can't be beat today." Miss him. GL

I agree Bank. I don't think anyone can play strictly favs in the -150 to -200 range and make money in the long run. Agree also, chases will always kill you in the long run. Oakland does look bad, and I bet them over 59 1/2 wins this year. I don't think I will win that. GL

He knew how great they were. When he said Dime on anything I tailed.
As you know, I never met him in person after all those years but man did I love that guy.

 

[Wiretowire]

We started at Covers in the late 90's as you know because you were there as well. Then we all went to WCS and finally here. I talked on the phone with him all those years for hours. Wise, the man was Santa Claus in the flesh. I even went to Las Vegas with him twice and each time people would come running up to him, grown ups mind you, and want a picture with Santa. We would sit at a bar and the bartender would ignore me to just talk to him. Men and women. When I said "Hey can I get a drink?" they would always say "If Santa wants to order a drink for you, I'll get it but it's up to him."

We would sit in the sportsbook and argue about baseball while we watched the games. More than once people or waitresses would come up and tell me to quit arguing with Santa Claus. I would always say "Santa knows toys and kids but he don't know shit about baseball!" and he would laugh and laugh. GL

 

[wiseplayer]

We started at Covers in the late 90's as you know because you were there as well. Then we all went to WCS and finally here. I talked on the phone with him all those years for hours. Wise, the man was Santa Claus in the flesh. I even went to Las Vegas with him twice and each time people would come running up to him, grown ups mind you, and want a picture with Santa. We would sit at a bar and the bartender would ignore me to just talk to him. Men and women. When I said "Hey can I get a drink?" they would always say "If Santa wants to order a drink for you, I'll get it but it's up to him."

We would sit in the sportsbook and argue about baseball while we watched the games. More than once people or waitresses would come up and tell me to quit arguing with Santa Claus. I would always say "Santa knows toys and kids but he don't know shit about baseball!" and he would laugh and laugh. GL

Great story