MLB Discussion July 12 - SOX 9 straight..will it HAPPen today?

Freeland plus money at home along with the way rox hit Ray, esp cargo and blackmon seems like no brainer...what would paulie say??

:confused3:
 
Unless Kluber pitches a complete game that pen should get rocked by the Yankees... to get Severino at that price is a no brainer IMO
 
Teams after scoring over 16 runs dont fair well. This is the first time I find in 15 years that 2 teams scored over 16 on the same day. (SDQL data only goes back to 2004)
after scoring 17 or more, teams have went 18-26 as avg -133 favorite. Tribe and Rox both scored 19 yesterday(if you take teams above 18 runs they are 4-9 L5 years)
View attachment 33355
 
Can the Nats crank out enough offense vs a lefty to get close to the total in NY? Max will surely limit this Muts lineup.
 
Brewcrew and Nats qualify

NL home team allowing >= 4.5 rpg and after blanking opp in last game...fade for 14% ROI

H and tA(o:runs) >= 4.5 and po:runs = 0 and season >= 2012 and league = NL
SU: 45-65 (-0.75, 40.9%) avg line: -100.6 / -110.8 on / against: -$2,316 / +$1,892 ROI: -17.9% / +14.0%
RL:
48-61 (-0.69, 44.0%) avg line: 109.8 / -125.8 on / against: -$1,086 / +$287 ROI: -8.3% / +1.9%
OU: 54-51-4 (0.73, 51.4%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: -$149 / -$811 ROI: -1.2% / -6.7%
 
some interesting pitching matcups Im going to have to do everything in my power not to pound Astros.

Astros have a losing record vs teams over 55% and worse at home.

Home 6-10
team = Astros and season = 2018 and o:WP > 55 and H
SU: 6-10 (-1.19, 37.5%) avg line: -171.0 / 155.8 on / against: -$1,012 / +$891 ROI: -37.2% / +54.8%


All 14-17
team = Astros and season = 2018 and o:WP > 55
SU: 14-17 (0.19, 45.2%) avg line: -158.6 / 145.2 on / against: -$1,139 / +$953 ROI: -23.0% / +29.6%
 
kind of reminds me of Indians yesterday getting payback, Altuve drops sure double play turn, they have been kind of emberrassed. Tuck got the Astro vibe dwow and would prolly rec selling 1.5 and 2.5. If I bet 1 unit I might be scared and sell 1 for a discount, Morton is their stopper and Cahill wont get that deep, but Hunter is under ump, im not sure yet just talking it thru


The smart move as pic points out is prolly the under or avoid but I bet that + money line attracts lots of As backers considering their run
 
That stat does interest me.
Was considering passing the game.
A's have been playing and hitting outstanding
 
Snell may underwhelm today. Huge diff between him on 5 and 4
Based on days rest Happ wins but Toronto Sucks on Thursday so expect a win by Boston.
Paxton should win.
Miley tends to be bad on 6+
Klubber Severino very interesting in this situation
Just under?
 
I want Houston to win but my starting price was much lower. And Oakland is an extremely good day team as well. But career Cahill is weak in the day. Guess I will make a small bet as God knows Houston should be massively motivated
 
I want Houston to win but my starting price was much lower. And Oakland is an extremely good day team as well. But career Cahill is weak in the day. Guess I will make a small bet as God knows Houston should be massively motivated

What you make of HOU having losing record vs teams over 53% wins
 
Getting Verlander helped a lot. Being able to watch really good pitching lets you learn.
Manager something of a problem
 
Cahill had been pretty damn good this year before his last start that lead to the dl stint. Not saying I love Oakland but man I couldn’t lay -200ish against them, of course I’m fairly allergic to chalk.
 
Understand that and agree to most of it
Killersports has it as about a 39 in a row trend that they win
 
Freeland been pretty outstanding at coors, really only thing that has me hesitant on the over there. Rox have smashed Ray, not as much here as in zona it seems but while his starts in coors been decent he hasn’t gone deep into games there. Ray just hasn’t been good in general or since coming off dl and never been strong in day games.

I guess the question is can zona get Freeland out of game and into that rox pen who sporting a .794 ops against this year!!
 
Going to say one more thing and then go. The people touting Toronto and Happ are missing something very important. Look at the number of times Boston has seen Happ 2018 and and 17. Price has faced them twice since 2016
 
Going to say one more thing and then go. The people touting Toronto and Happ are missing something very important. Look at the number of times Boston has seen Happ 2018 and and 17. Price has faced them twice since 2016

Certainly something to consider. Especially with a offense as potent as the sawx.
 
Before doing any work on this one so just eye test, Seattle and Paxton are awful damn cheap are they not??? Feel like there has to be something to this one when I dig cause on surface that sure feels like a no brainer.
 
Thursday night, Price, 19-3 with a 2.46 ERA in his career against the Jays, looks to both put a stop to his two-start fade and pitch his team to its 10th straight win when the Boston Red Sox open a four-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Price, who has allowed 12 earned runs on 15 hits in eight innings over his last two starts, faces Toronto's J.A. Happ, who has also been struggling -- and is also the center of trade speculation -- in the opener of the series that takes both teams to the All-Star break.
The sizzling Red Sox (65-29) have won nine in a row for the second time this season after finishing off their third straight three-game series sweep by downing the Texas Rangers 4-2 Wednesday night.

Like Price, Happ has done well against Thursday night's opponent. While Price is 2-0 against Toronto this season, Happ pitched a gem against the Red Sox April 24, allowing one run over seven innings. He is 7-3 with a 3.09 career ERA against Boston, and at Fenway Park, he is 4-1 with a 3.16 ERA.
In his last two starts, though, Happ, who is 10-5 with a 4.44 ERA for the season, has worked just 8 1/3 innings, yielding 14 hits and 13 earned runs, with seven walks and nine strikeouts.
Price is 9-6 on the season with a 4.44 ERA.
And after a poor outing that saw him become the first Red Sox pitcher to hit three batters in the same inning (in the fifth inning of a 15-4 game he didn't last long enough to win), Price said, "To give up that lead the way I gave it up, not to be able to get through five innings, that's tough. But my teammates really picked me up, and that's huge."
His teammates remain on fire. They have scored 67 runs during their nine-game winning streak and rode Cy Young Award candidate Chris Sale's 10th victory to the latest win -- moving to 36 games over .500 for the first time since 1978. The win maintained their 3 1/2- game lead over the New York Yankees atop the American League East.
This is the first time the Red Sox have had two winning streaks of at least nine games in a season since 1948.
"I think we won the most games in spring training, right?" Sale said after his latest gem Wednesday. "I think a lot of people kind of pushed that to the wayside, but we were ready to win from Day 1."
The Red Sox are 7-2 against the Jays this season, most recently sweeping a three-game series at Fenway May 28-30.
The Jays are 42-49 on the season, splitting a two-game series in Atlanta. They have lost three of their last four.
Happ is arguably the top starting pitcher available as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. The Yankees and Chicago Cubs are copnsidered the frontrunners to acquire him.
"I'm just focused on playing for the Blue Jays right now," Happ told reporters. "There's rumors out there, you never know what's speculation, what's true and what has any realistic chance -- I'm just trying to play and pitch. I'm happy right here and we'll see what happens."
While he has no idea where he might be headed in a trade, he knows he's going to Washington from Boston after getting his first All-Star nod.
"Really, there's no other way to describe it than it's a dream come true," Happ said after getting word. "I was a big baseball card collector as a kid. I always collected all of the All-Star cards, and it was kind of a surreal moment today when I found out. I certainly was hoping there was a chance, but it's just a dream come true."
If you needed more proof of the two veteran left-handers' pitching against the other team, just examine the numbers.
Of the current Blue Jays, Devon Travis, who hit a grand slam in Wednesday night's 9-5 loss at Atlanta, is 5-for-14 (.357) against Price, but Kevin Pillar is 3-for-19 (.158) with a homer, Russell Martin 5-for-29 (.172), Yangervis Solarte 3-for-16 (.188) and Curtis Granderson 10-for-51 (.196) Granderson, however has hit four homers against Price.
Steve Pearce, the newest bat in the Boston lineup, is 10-for-28 with five homers against Happ, who was until recently a teammate. But Andrew Benintendi is 0-for-13, Jackie Bradley Jr. 2-for-17 (.118), Xander Bogaerts 3-for-24 (.125), Sandy Leon 1-for-8 (.125) and Mookie Betts 5-for-29 (.172) with a homer.
Not all the news is great for the high-flying Red Sox. It was announced Tuesday that Dustin Pedroia would continue his rehab (knee) in Arizona. Wednesday, word came it will be four to five weeks before Pedroia even has another MRI.
"The treatment that I need, it's tough to get all that done (in Boston)," said Pedroia, who will work with a therapist who has helped him in the past. "Our staff is trying to get all the other guys ready. It's tough. It stinks leaving the guys, but it's kind of the right thing to do so I can concentrate on my rehab."
 
Just noticed this Pivetta on 5 days rest
1-5 ERA 5.56
On the road 1-3 ERA 5.61
At night 2-5 ERA 5.58
All 3 together
 
Before doing any work on this one so just eye test, Seattle and Paxton are awful damn cheap are they not??? Feel like there has to be something to this one when I dig cause on surface that sure feels like a no brainer.

I thought g1 same way with Richard's-150 vs Leake. Mariners jump out to 3 run lead and proceed to get pounded
 
Not the same situation. Houston up 2-0 and since Oakland plays at SAN FRANCISCO tomorrow they may not be willing to use quality relievers last 3 innings
 
I thought g1 same way with Richard's-150 vs Leake. Mariners jump out to 3 run lead and proceed to get pounded

I hear ya, now that you mention it I been on Seattle all series so guess this ain’t 1st price I’ve thought was off, I guess considering prices of 1st 2 this isn’t much different.
 
Houston superwimps. It is obviously impossible to score off Oakland bench 2 men on
 
i should have cashed out my astros runline when they were up 4-0

I think about this often, 5hought about it today, but never hedge like I should.

Today I told myself Morton looked strong thru 4, Astros up 4, they ain't losing why hedge? When it was 4-3 and FF slipped by, I was like what's the point now to hedge. And how much to hedge, just to cover lay? Everyday I'm grateful to win cause it dont come easy
 
I think about this often, 5hought about it today, but never hedge like I should.

Today I told myself Morton looked strong thru 4, Astros up 4, they ain't losing why hedge? When it was 4-3 and FF slipped by, I was like what's the point now to hedge. And how much to hedge, just to cover lay? Everyday I'm grateful to win cause it dont come easy

Always tough choice to hedge.. winners are hard to come by so when you finally think you have one and bet against your initial gut (bet) is some sort of sorcery I’ve yet to master lol
 
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