Interesting. My spread sheet is not showing Pitt playing. Is this a double header?There have been favorites that high.
Liking pitt TT over in the early game
Interesting. My spread sheet is not showing Pitt playing. Is this a double header?
Nats do look high. They have a decided edge tomorrow with the way Harvey has been but the Mets have the edge in game three with Matz/Roark. Personally I can't trust Gonzalez over Colon at that price and if you do like Gio you can just bet him today at almost 30c cheaper.What are your feelings on these series???
I liked the Nats but -$175 seems tough, Royals look solid -$140 Cards +$125 just not enough White Sox a tad high also
Nats do look high. They have a decided edge tomorrow with the way Harvey has been but the Mets have the edge in game three with Matz/Roark. Personally I can't trust Gonzalez over Colon at that price and if you do like Gio you can just bet him today at almost 30c cheaper.
Other than Sale tomorrow it's the White Sox flotsam vs the Indians jetsam. Pass.
Pass on KC laying a price on the road too with Kennedy/Volquez/Gee, three mediocre NL refugees vs Nolasco/Santana/Duffey. You should be able to buy all three in that series at considerably less than -140 if you like KC.
Philly at +125 has some value imo with Velasquez favored over Pelfry today, Hellickson vs a not what he once was Verlander tomorrow and Nola/Annabelle Sanchez and his 5.48 FIP on Wednesday.
The Nats will be favored in game 3 with Roark at home, but it probably won't be by much. They are also the best hitting team in the NL vs. lefties. Why would you not trust Gio over Colon? I think it is lined fair.
I don't play a lot of series, but the Rangers look a hair cheap and Seattle seems decent value.
Think you're mixing up teamsRegarding Washington vs Miami---I want Washington first 5 but no bet till umps. This game may be very hard fought
You can bet the value with the Reds if you wish but it's foolish.
You don't have to bet on the Dodgers. But betting on the Reds is just foolish. I'm not a value bettor in any sport though. Everything being equal if they played this game 100 times the Reds would not win 30 times IMO.
Where's the 'value' if you don't give them a legitimate shot at winning though? Betting a number as opposed to betting reality is a pretty slippery slope...+300 or higher on the reds, all day every day. classic example of betting a number not the team, but whatever, just too high.
You don't have to bet on the Dodgers. But betting on the Reds is just foolish. I'm not a value bettor in any sport though. Everything being equal if they played this game 100 times the Reds would not win 30 times IMO.
Where's the 'value' if you don't give them a legitimate shot at winning though? Betting a number as opposed to betting reality is a pretty slippery slope...
Think you're mixing up teams
I think the best pitcher is SaleWe can agree to disagree on this one. The Dodgers have the best pitcher in the world right now, nobody will argue. But Cincy is by no chance the worst team in the sport and LAD just played a 17-inning game to where their entire bullpen was used. There are going to be plenty of people betting Kersh tonight as I saw the number at my book open at -350 and just hit -395...but I will gladly disagree in THIS SPOT, Cincy wins more than 30 times out of a 100.
But these disagreements, viewpoints are what the discussion threads interesting. Everyone has a different take. Capping this sport is unique in that everyone (in my opinion) does it pretty differently to their own style.
I think the best pitcher is Sale
I disagree 100% with you on this one, NBAfan. It is baseball...it's not the Warriors playing the Lakers where the ML is -1800 and it is a guaranteed victory. The worst teams win 37% of their games in 100-loss seasons...if I can get +300, I'm playing it...I'm not mortgaging the rent on it, but I will hit it for a small play.
between every single possibility:
Kershaw doesnt feel well and cant go
Kershaw goes and it rains in the 2nd inning and he doesnt come back out or he does comeback out rusty
kershaw dominates but loses 2-1
kershaw pitches well but pen blows it
kershaw has a night where he just doestn have his stuff and gives up 4
those things combine, in my opinion, equal a higher than 30% Chance of Cincy Winning. Dodgers arent even at .500 as a team yet no? Baseball is more than one pitcher
Ok, well, not to quibble over semantics, but if Kershaw doesn't go, you won't be getting +300 anymore. And when's the last time you had a rain delay in LA?between every single possibility:
Kershaw doesnt feel well and cant go
Kershaw goes and it rains in the 2nd inning and he doesnt come back out or he does comeback out rusty
kershaw dominates but loses 2-1
kershaw pitches well but pen blows it
kershaw has a night where he just doestn have his stuff and gives up 4
those things combine, in my opinion, equal a higher than 30% Chance of Cincy Winning. Dodgers arent even at .500 as a team yet no? Baseball is more than one pitcher
Anyone else wondering about Philadelphia today?
Detroit has a poor pitcher. They have also won 6 of last 7.
Vincent in his last 3 road games has gone 18 innings and given up 11 runs
He has not been good on 5 and is much better in the day
There is still a team aspect of it for sure. The Dodgers position players have a 5.6 WAR on the season, the Reds are at 0.3. The Dodgers as a team are way better than the Reds before adjusting for the pitching advantage.
Just double checking my numbers, but Nate Silver gives the Reds a 24% chance of winning tonight. Fangraphs give the Reds a 23.6% chance. The "Kershaw not feeling well" is why the number gets up to 24%.
But, the worse teams win 37% against the "average" major league team, they don't win 37% against the Dodgers with Kershaw on the hill. The Reds team play the Dodgers team with Kershaw may not win 40 games in a year. Personally, I have it lined at Dodgers -325.
team = Cardinals and season = 2016 and starter = Adam Wainwright | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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[TABLE="class: dataTable no-footer"] <tbody>[TR] [TH="class: sorting_asc"]Date[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Link[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Day[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Site[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Team[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Starter[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Opp[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Starter[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Final[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]SUm[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]W/L[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]OUm[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"] O/U[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Hits[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Errors[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]BL[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Line[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Total[/TH] [TH="class: sorting"]Innings[/TH] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
box | Sun | away | Cardinals | Adam Wainwright - R | Pirates | Francisco Liriano - L | 1-4 | -3 | L | -1.0 | U | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-4 | 111 | 6.0 | 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
box | Sat | home | Cardinals | Adam Wainwright - R | Reds | Brandon Finnegan - L | 8-9 | -1 | L | 9.5 | O | 10-15 | 0-2 | 4-4 | -135 | 7.5 | 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
box | Wed | away | Cardinals | Adam Wainwright - R | Diamondbacks | Patrick Corbin - L | 11-4 | 7 | W | 6.0 | O | 14-10 | 1-1 | 7-2 | 105 | 9.0 | 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
box | Sat | home | Cardinals | Adam Wainwright - R | Pirates | Jeff Locke - L | 6-4 | 2 | W | 1.0 | O | 9-11 | 1-0 | 2-2 | -138 | 9.0 | 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
box | Wed | home | Cardinals | Adam Wainwright - R | Rockies | Christopher Rusin - L | 2-0 | 2 | W | -6.0 | U | 7-6 | 1-1 | 2-0 | -170 | 8.0 | 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I would say so for today too but the series was almost 30c higher at the time.The Nats will be favored in game 3 with Roark at home, but it probably won't be by much. They are also the best hitting team in the NL vs. lefties. Why would you not trust Gio over Colon? I think it is lined fair.
I don't play a lot of series, but the Rangers look a hair cheap and Seattle seems decent value.
I cannot say that I can ever remember a -350 favorite in a major league baseball game. Especially a -350 favorite who played a 17-inning game the day before. I may bet the Reds just out of principle...the Dodgers just literally played 2 entire games on Sunday...I don't care how bad a team is and who the pitcher being faced is...-350 in this sport is insanity.
Locked in Angels