MLB Discussion AUG 6 - Can Yanks Put Nightmare Behind Them

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CHW +1.5 (even) looks like a pretty nice bargain. There is virtually zero edge in the pitching match up between Covey and Lynn. Covey doesn't seem to give up too many home runs - Yanks have trouble scoring without the home run. Interesting situation as the Yanks emotions gotta be pounded as well as their pen. -200 is a total joke line.
 
Wouldn't surprise me if Yankee homers bet line higher. They sure bet the Sox line down yesterday

Here is query for 16.6% ROI over 5.5 years..dog of 150 or more after scoring over 7 and averaging at least .5 runs less than opponent..chisox qualify
only a 42% winner but at avg +182 that's a nice profit

p:runs > 7 and tA(runs) + .5 <= tA(o:runs) and line >= 150 and season > 2013
SU: 67-94 (-1.14, 41.6%) avg line: 182.3 / -199.2 on / against: +$2,667 / -$3,751 ROI: +16.6% / -11.7%
 
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another take
The Yankees are struggling. Entering last night’s game they were below .500 in their last 10 and 20 games. Some of this is due to the loss of Aaron Judge no doubt, but sports books continue to do the Yanks no favors. It’s a rare day when there is clear value on the Yankees bet. Today is not one of those rare occasions, but you may want to take them nonetheless. Here’s why.

Lance Lynn pitched superbly his last time out (4.1 innings, no walks, no runs), but that was a relief appearance against the Baltimore Orioles. Tonight is his first start in a Yankees uniform, after being moved to the rotation for the disappointing Sonny Gray. Lynn’s last few starts for Minnesota, before he got traded, were decent. His relatively poor record this season is mostly due to a few rough starts in April (four of his five starts that month saw him give up 5 or more earned runs). He’s already started twice at Guaranteed Rate Field this season. It has not been very pretty with 4.91 ERA, 1.545 WHIP and .835 OPS. But that was with his old team. Things are different now. Or at least they were his first outing in pinstripes.

Dylan Covey had one really nice start in July (two hits, no runs over 8 1/3 innings at Seattle) and a few earlier in the season, which got him some positive press. He’s otherwise been very mediocre. He’s been better at home, where his OPS this season is particularly decent (.666, number of the beast). Over the course of his short career (Covey is still technically a rookie) those numbers are even more pronounced. His road record is downright scary, and not good scary: 2-11, 8.16 ERA, 1.776 WHIP, .965 OPS. Luckily for him, this game takes place at home. It’s his second career start against the Yankees. They hit him all over the park last time (8 earned runs in 5 innings at Yankee Stadium last April).

The White Sox have a good record as home underdogs: 24-16. But they’ve scored a full run less per game, on average, than the Yankees. This is the first time these teams have faced each other this season. The Yankees edged the series, 4-3, in 2017.

It’s hard to justify taking a road team with -190 moneyline, but you really can’t see the Yankees losing this one, can you?
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I absolutely can see the Yankees blowing this one. Don't see why it's such a foregone conclusion. White Sox have zero pressure, Yanks all the pressure in the world to make that WC.
 
Yanks are locked into playoffs. They have time to figure things out. They have nothing to panic about so dont bet them like they have to win tonight.

All they do is play white Sox and Orioles this month
 
Just got up.. Some interest in Mets and Detroit.
Homer on 5 0-3 9 ERA
Boyd is back on 5 with good history against Angels
 
Yeah maybe Yanks have some letdown and Lynn struggles, so White Sox 1H RL makes sense. And yeah I posted that Freeland trend in my last Rockies article. It's mostly because he doesn't allow a lot of home runs at all, even at home. He was also really close to being the first Rockie to achieve a no-hitter at Coors.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Yanks are locked into playoffs. They have time to figure things out. They have nothing to panic about so dont bet them like they have to win tonight.

All they do is play white Sox and Orioles this month
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Fair but they’ve struggled against average and below average teams like the Orioles. They’re only 2.5 up on the Mariners who get Cano back soon.

No sign of Judge and who knows if he’s really the same when he gets back.

I don’t know if that’s a lock.
 
Nothing is a lock but its the polar opposite of National League. I think it would be great if 3 went from AL west. People act like Gary Sanchez is a loss. He is so overrated. But they are going to win more than they lose verse the white sox and orioles this August.
 
Biggest concern will be durability of the starters for NYY, obviously why they picked up Lynn. Not sure how good Severino is later in the season, never know when CC will hit the wall either. Of course they really only need to get 5 innings out of the starters most of the time.
 
peelpub94 said:
I absolutely can see the Yankees blowing this one. Don't see why it's such a foregone conclusion. White Sox have zero pressure, Yanks all the pressure in the world to make that WC.
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Plus it lance Lynn pitching. Even when he is good he is oh so close to being bad!!
 
So curious if cardinals can carry this positive momentum they have going into a series they should win and actually get the job done vs a bad team? Has not been something they been able to do in recent years, just earlier this season they had similar situation with marlins/pads/and some other bad team coming to stl and they failed to win any of those series! Maybe just maybe with the new manager we can win these games. I’m on board for now and played cards -1.5. Totally homer play! Lol
 
tuck321 said:
Based on days rest and days of the week today Cleveland wins
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I appreciate your insight on some of these items but it sometimes comes across you make a decision solely on days rest and day of the week.

What about Bauer has been nearly untouchable at home all year?
 
I use many things. Study of umpires is crucial and I rarely bet till I see it. Right now if I wanted to just make a bet under in Frisco would come up
 
Yes, I appreciate the ump insight too as always. Just wanted to clarify your process. BOL tonight!
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Yeah maybe Yanks have some letdown and Lynn struggles, so White Sox 1H RL makes sense. And yeah I posted that Freeland trend in my last Rockies article. It's mostly because he doesn't allow a lot of home runs at all, even at home. He was also really close to being the first Rockie to achieve a no-hitter at Coors.
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I was at that game!
 
Let me say that Morton is very good on 5 days rest. Better than Rodriquez but Rodriguez is very likely to have his best catcher and is very good at Night as is Morton so that game can slip very easily into a pitching duel as long as you duck a terrible ump
 
tuck321 said:
Let me say that Morton is very good on 5 days rest. Better than Rodriquez but Rodriguez is very likely to have his best catcher and is very good at Night as is Morton so that game can slip very easily into a pitching duel as long as you duck a terrible ump
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You like anything else tnite Tuck? Besides under in Houston I mean
 
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