MLB Discussion AUG 2 - BoSox ready to KO Yanks?

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tidbits..

Rockies starters finished July with a 2.99 ERA, lowest single-month ERA in Franchise history.
That included a 1.71 ERA at home for the starting pitching staff. Best home ERA for the Rockies starting staff in a month by more than 1 run a game.

AUG not starting as well Recap: STL 6, COL 3

and of course...moar
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

  • Team Records: NYY 68-38 (2nd in AL East/5.5 games back), +137 run difference (third-best in MLB); BOS 75-34 (1st in AL East), +176 (second-best in MLB)
  • Against-the-Spread Records: NYY 56-50 (28-24 away), BOS 63-46 (32-21 home)
  • Starting Pitchers: Sabathia (LHP, 6-4, 3.53 ERA, 1.290 WHIP), Johnson (LHP, 1-3/3.45/1.400)
  • Moneyline Open: NYY +120, BOS -130
  • Runline Open: NYY +1.5 (-170), BOS -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under Open: 10
  • Time/TV: 7:10pm EDT/YES, NESN, MLBN (out of network)
CC Sabathia has quietly had a pretty decent year. His WHIP, ERA, walks-per-nine-innings and strikeout/walk ratios are better than they have been in recent seasons. But he’s been worse on the road in 2018. This is his first start at Fenway Park this year. It’s fair to say it has not been his favorite venue, with his ERA, WHIP, SO/W and OPS well worse than career averages.

Boston leads the majors in hits and runs per game. The Red Sox are good against left-handers (16-11 this season). Steve Pearce is hot against CC, having two home runs against him in 33 at bats this year.

The Yankees are even better against left-handers than the Red Sox (24-6 this year, which has got to be some kind of record). Their OPS against lefties (.840) is best in the majors.

Brian Johnson is making just his seventh start of the season. He’s much better as a starter (1-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, .663 OPS) than reliever (0-2/5.10/1.467/.767), but just one of those starts came against a team with a winning record (Washington). He’s slightly better at home but gets hit pretty hard by right-handers (.805 OPS for his career).

TL;DR: Everything seems to point to scoring in this one, which is why the over/under is set so high. It still may be worth taking the over though. There seems to be too much juice on the runline (at least at the open) for there to be much value with the Yankees. Taking the Red Sox for a +150 (or more, if you can get it) payout to cover makes more sense.

What the so-called ‘Experts’ Are Saying:


Then there is Chris Archer arriving in PIT
View attachment 33910
 
Keller is good, splits fine, good rest (4) plus was shellacked by WS recently. Bounceback? Royals were juiced last night.

Lopez has been regressing but best splits, best rest and off bad outing verse Royals. Maybe under huh?

Ben May ump is 1-14 to home team WTF and 10-5 to over
 
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Johnnyonthespot said:
I dont think its a coincidence at all.
Have you reverse engineered his model yet?
Click to expand...

I tried, I got one of his earlier shared links that shows FORMULAS and such, but it's complicated and it pulls data from other sheets. But I have tried ;)

He did say he wont be able to share his NFL model because it would be too easily figured and he would lose his edge. He said he may share picks, but not the model
 
huge series in beantown, a split for the home team would be massive. Anything bigger would be gravy

No chance Pearce has seen CC 33 times this year, misprint? He was probably acquired for CC, which is hilarious, but is that a career ABs number?

Excited for this one, but both teams are entering banged up. No Judge/Sanchez, no Sale for the series and Moreland has been scuffling. Would consider BOS if they moved to a dog, but i doubt that happens and even then NYY has the boppers to hit a soft-tossing LHP like Johnson hard.

Since this is such a big series, I could see both managers yanking starters early to get into stronger bullpen arms. That has to benefit NYY
 
Easy peasy...just bet Rays at home :godfather:

but...Greinke has looked sharp at home this year, even better since he All-Star break with a 1.20 ERA. Bumgarder, has posted good numbers at home, but not so much on the road with a 5.06 ERA. Taking Greinke to get the job done in what should be a low scoring pitching duel.
 
mrpickem said:
Easy peasy...just bet Rays at home :godfather:

but...Greinke has looked sharp at home this year, even better since he All-Star break with a 1.20 ERA. Bumgarder, has posted good numbers at home, but not so much on the road with a 5.06 ERA. Taking Greinke to get the job done in what should be a low scoring pitching duel.
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We see this the same
 
Leaning Cubs 5 days rest Montgomery 2.78
Cubs 9-2 on Thursday
Situation interesting in Philadelphia
9-3 team with a lousy pitcher face a 0-10 on Thursday maybe over maybe nothing
 
Surprised no one is talking about brewcrew +184

Kershaw -200? Maybe against a scrub team not against the brewers
 
sox/yanks...been watching these two forever....two things will happen here i believe.....the dog will win and cover the run line....and a game will go over....don't believe in chases but i believe these will come in
 
I don’t feel like bos pitcher is as bad as numbers might indicate

CC can’t get past the 5th before he fizzles
 
Total blind play on the Royals based on that stat I saw in another thread with the ump going something like 1-15 with the home team. CLOSE IT OUT!
 
I would take a flyer on reds if Mahle dint suck so bad..they are 12-6 L18 vs teams with winning record

and then there's this laugher

Steam-Play Alert 08/02/18 02:26:42pm Pacific Time MLB: Game 971 Baltimore +140
 
mrpickem said:
I would take a flyer on reds if Mahle dint suck so bad..they are 12-6 L18 vs teams with winning record

and then there's this laugher

Steam-Play Alert 08/02/18 02:26:42pm Pacific Time MLB: Game 971 Baltimore +140
Click to expand...

Can’t remember if it was you who posted it but isn’t Mahle the worst FF pitcher this season
 
Scott Spreitzer

4-Unit Play: Take 972 Rangers -140 over Orioles (8:05 p.m., Thursday, August 2)

I'm backing the Rangers on Thursday night with Galardo over Cashner. Baltimore has won four of its last five, but there's no getting around the fact that it's August and the Orioles have won a total of only 13 road games while losing 40. The Orioles have lost eight of the last 11 meetings at Texas and they have lost 42 of their last 53 road games against right-handed starters. Also, Baltimore has lost four of Andrew Cashner's last five road starts and they are 5-13 in Cashner's last 18 starts overall. Yovani Gallardo has put together two good outings not allowing a run on only five hits in 11 1/3 innings against two good-hitting teams in the Indians and Astros. The Rangers have won five of his last six starts and Gallardo was 3-1 with a 3.74 ERA in July after a terrible start to the season. Texas has won four of its last five games overall and it has won Gallardo's last four home starts. I'm backing the Texas Rangers on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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Jays fresh off having bullpen obliterated by OAK and have allowed 6.4 runs per game in since the break - half of which were against BAL and CWS. Then they're stuck with Tyler Clippard tonight, making his first start since 2008, and while he hasn't been awful this year compared to his generally below average bullshit, he hasn't thrown for more than 2 inn in a single game since 2011, and if this shitty bullpen is once again forced to step in it could be calamitous for Toronto. Conversly SEA is throwing the decaying corpse of Felix Hernandez, whose precipitously high walk rate and lack of effective control this year could be equally disasterous for a SEA team fresh off of having its bullpen filleted by the stros this week. Their offenses are unimpressive, but with the precarious state of both teams' pitching for all 9 innings today, this one has bloodbath potential.

I'm planning to pound TOR@SEA over 9 in the late game today

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What are we feeling on Seattle? Felix is obviously not the same Felix anymore, but he's not awful at Safeco. Clippard is starting which means it's a full on bullpen effort that has already been abused coming out of Oakland. Not sure about the short line on the M's but am going to make a play on them in some fashion.
 
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