Mlb 6/4
- Thread starter slim5150
- Start date
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
Given the lines out there doubt it will be as big of a card.
Laa and milw were on the list, but didnt make the 120 cut. As of this writing, both are up...but that boston game might end up looking like a football score. Reds arent really a comeback team and are down 4 in the 6th.
Hindsight is always 20/20 on the bets you didnt take that win.
Ill add col from the initial post and the others i have today.
Col 134 bol
Ari 149 bol
Nym 130 bol
Wash 124 bol
Yesterday 6-4 +4.27
Ytd 59-75 +3.94
Laa and milw were on the list, but didnt make the 120 cut. As of this writing, both are up...but that boston game might end up looking like a football score. Reds arent really a comeback team and are down 4 in the 6th.
Hindsight is always 20/20 on the bets you didnt take that win.
Ill add col from the initial post and the others i have today.
Col 134 bol
Ari 149 bol
Nym 130 bol
Wash 124 bol
Yesterday 6-4 +4.27
Ytd 59-75 +3.94
Last edited:
slim5150
Freelance Gynecologist
@2daBank yeah...the cutoff is self imposed by the little model i made. The goal is a 45% win rate long term so im simply not being compensated enough if the model selects a play that doesnt meet that minimum threshold.
Phi/tor and sd/sfg are on the list for today, for example, but neither are expected to get to that number.
It also helps me eliminate games in which i dont want to dive into, alyhough i dont do any of that for these selections generally. Cle made the list yesterday...but the yanks had a hugh pitching mismatch to their advantage. It dis end up being close....but realistically i needed more than 2 to 1 to get into that.
i do agree there are good plays that can be made under that range...and even favorites.
If i can take a set of plays independently selected based on the model and figure out a way to be profitable long term at a 45% win rate long term, then i feel i can add statiatical analysis of the underlying team metrics and find an edge that could increase the win rate by a few percentage points at a minimum. Then i can increase ROI and expand the bankroll.
Wordy, but thats the thougbt process in a nutshell
Phi/tor and sd/sfg are on the list for today, for example, but neither are expected to get to that number.
It also helps me eliminate games in which i dont want to dive into, alyhough i dont do any of that for these selections generally. Cle made the list yesterday...but the yanks had a hugh pitching mismatch to their advantage. It dis end up being close....but realistically i needed more than 2 to 1 to get into that.
i do agree there are good plays that can be made under that range...and even favorites.
If i can take a set of plays independently selected based on the model and figure out a way to be profitable long term at a 45% win rate long term, then i feel i can add statiatical analysis of the underlying team metrics and find an edge that could increase the win rate by a few percentage points at a minimum. Then i can increase ROI and expand the bankroll.
Wordy, but thats the thougbt process in a nutshell