MLB 1st 5's

ScopeY

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
When I can I'll to be more active here, I typically stick to first 5's in MLB.

Pittsburgh is trotting out 8 lefties vs Kuhl, who has a 4.67 SIERA. Not a lot of power on this team, but with Kuhls high walk rate, and Kuhl's avg vs lefties being the 3rd worst for all starting pitchers today... sign me up for some dink and dunks/small ball.

PIT TTo 2.5 +135 <---- this changed on me to TTo 1.5 -145 2.9-2

PHI -0.5 -105 1.05-1
OAK/SEA O4 -105 1.05-1
 
3-1 +3.1
5-2 +2.2 Total

I'd like to take COL TT O1.5 but only 2 real lefties in that lineup (plus cron who has some good numbers vs righties)... you'll need the 2~ chances of the 2/3/4 hitters to get you to two... its possibly, but maybe get more value in col to score a run in the 1st, aand then whenever they're due up again.

Maybe more later.
 
Weather concern for CHW game, otherwise I'd have them or their TT.

HOU -0.5 -120 1.2-1
LAA TTo 2.5 -120 1.2-1
 
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ScopeY said:
Weather concern for CHW game, otherwise I'd have them or their TT.

HOU -0.5 -120 1.2-1
LAA TTo 2.5 -120 1.2-1
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I almost always just stay away when there that kind of weather and possible delays; never know how teams gonna look after sitting around for hours. Sucks it took away a great team to play against rich hill with.
 
2daBank said:
I almost always just stay away when there that kind of weather and possible delays; never know how teams gonna look after sitting around for hours. Sucks it took away a great team to play against rich hill with.
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Yeah, maybe I shouldn't have been worried, a rain out and I'm refunded, dry, and I get what I want..... just a mid inning new SP's is the only concern.

1-1 -0.2

6-3 +2 Total
 
ScopeY said:
Yeah, maybe I shouldn't have been worried, a rain out and I'm refunded, dry, and I get what I want..... just a mid inning new SP's is the only concern.

1-1 -0.2

6-3 +2 Total
Click to expand...

If it was that simple I would agree but there always risk of them starting to play them a long delay and next thing ya know neither starter in: or we just get the long delay before game starts and that typically leads to teams being flat, or ya get the situation where they think they can get it in if they hurry and you get a ump with a huge k-zone! The way I look at it this shit is hard enough to cap without throwing extra variables into the mix so if I can help it I flat out stay away from games with potential weather issues.
 
These 1st 5 team totals you play are interesting. I love Ff bets but mostly how I play my unders or the occasional times I want to play a fav im a fan of laying the half run instead of the -1.5 for game. Or just to eliminate pen on a dog with a crappy pen! For most part my thought process on game overs or team totals I think I want all 9 innings and the pens (unless we talking bout a real elite pen with the right guys rested).

Now that you have me thinking bout it I realize I have had many a team total where they get the 2-3 runs off starter but fail to score any more after he gets taken out:, case and point last night; if wasn’t for the rain cws team total would have certainly been a play for me but they failed to hit it cause didn’t score shit off the right handed pen guys who followed Hill. There was another just last week that was exactly the same thing. Thought I was sitting pretty with a 3.5 and my team scored 3 off starter thru 5 and went goose eggs rest the way. It especially perfect when im attacking a starter who the lineup matches up well against. That 2 in a week and there was a 3rd I cashed cause cards scored 5 runs off starter but they failed to score again after the lefty was removed, could have easily only got 4 and I lost by half run! That 3 games in less than a week that either would have changed my result or was at least the better play!!

Glad you started posting bases! We need more guys who offer smart ideas!!
 
2daBank said:
These 1st 5 team totals you play are interesting. I love Ff bets but mostly how I play my unders or the occasional times I want to play a fav im a fan of laying the half run instead of the -1.5 for game. Or just to eliminate pen on a dog with a crappy pen! For most part my thought process on game overs or team totals I think I want all 9 innings and the pens (unless we talking bout a real elite pen with the right guys rested).

Now that you have me thinking bout it I realize I have had many a team total where they get the 2-3 runs off starter but fail to score any more after he gets taken out:, case and point last night; if wasn’t for the rain cws team total would have certainly been a play for me but they failed to hit it cause didn’t score shit off the right handed pen guys who followed Hill. There was another just last week that was exactly the same thing. Thought I was sitting pretty with a 3.5 and my team scored 3 off starter thru 5 and went goose eggs rest the way. It especially perfect when im attacking a starter who the lineup matches up well against. That 2 in a week and there was a 3rd I cashed cause cards scored 5 runs off starter but they failed to score again after the lefty was removed, could have easily only got 4 and I lost by half run! That 3 games in less than a week that either would have changed my result or was at least the better play!!

Glad you started posting bases! We need more guys who offer smart ideas!!
Click to expand...

Ya, its been easier for me to attack the SP's, more info/predictable.

NYY PK -120 2.4-2

COL/WAS O4.5 -120 1.2-1
ATL/PHI U4 -105 1.05-1 (Weather could play a role here)
BOS TTo 2.5 +100 1-1
LAD TTo 2.5 -130 1.3-1
 
ScopeY said:
Ya, its been easier for me to attack the SP's, more info/predictable.
Click to expand...

Just got me one my easiest wins of the year with milw Ff team total over! Cashed that shit right away and didn’t have to sit around sweating them scoring next couple runs woulda needed for full game team total!! Gonna be like a kid with a new toy now! Lol. 1st I found pitcher props this year and now this! As much work im putting into pitchers already I really don’t have to do anything extra and I like better than pitcher runs allowed prop.
 
2daBank said:
Just got me one my easiest wins of the year with milw Ff team total over! Cashed that shit right away and didn’t have to sit around sweating them scoring next couple runs woulda needed for full game team total!! Gonna be like a kid with a new toy now! Lol. 1st I found pitcher props this year and now this! As much work im putting into pitchers already I really don’t have to do anything extra and I like better than pitcher runs allowed prop.
Click to expand...

Great to hear!

4-0-1 +4
10-3-1 +6 Total
 
CLV -0.5 -105 2.1-2
MIA +0.5 -120 2.4-2 (Really like this and want to put more, but refraining from "giving it back")

MIL -0.5 -105 1.05-1
LAD/ARI O5.5 -120 1.2-1

Lean HOU but don't want to lay the -1.
 
I played milw Ff tt ov 1.5 again. Annoys me but Cards pitchers really not good enough to hold them under 2! I suppose the Ff rl good too, less juice, I just don’t love the way woodruff has pitched this year. Plus I’m lazy and liked not having to even try to figure out what his start looks like now that I have the option not to, lol. Def think you on right side. Gl
 
1-2 -2.45
11-5-1 +3.55 Total

MIL/STL O4.5 +105
NYY -0.5 -105
CLV -0.5 -110
SFG -0.5 -125

All for 1
 
KCR/CLV closed at 6 and juiced to the over, so can't complain there....

1-1 -0.1
16-9-1 +4.25 Total

KCR/CLV O5 -105 1.05-1

trying it again!..... more in a bit
 
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3-0 +4.25
19-9-1 +8.5 Total

SDP -0.5 +105 2-2.1

CLV TTo 2.5 -105 1.05-1
HOU -1 +105 1-1.05
ATL -0.5 -115 1.15-1
CWS ML +105 1-1.05


Lean nats tt under, sfg/phi under, yanks, mil, pitt tt under
 
im on wood ov 5.5 k's but like that ff under in mia also.. fish offense should come back down to earth away from coors and i pretty much always like alcontera, he been really good last 4 starts!
 
0-1-1 -1.1
22-12-3 +7.4 Total

TBR -0.5 -130 1.3-1
SDP TTu 1.5 -155 1.55-1
ATL -0.5 -140 1.4-1
NYM ML +125 1-1.25

I want to put more on ATL but I hate how they only have 2 lefties in the lineup. 1 of which is the 9holer...
 
ScopeY said:
0-1-1 -1.1
22-12-3 +7.4 Total

TBR -0.5 -130 1.3-1
SDP TTu 1.5 -155 1.55-1
ATL -0.5 -140 1.4-1
NYM ML +125 1-1.25

I want to put more on ATL but I hate how they only have 2 lefties in the lineup. 1 of which is the 9holer...
Click to expand...

1-3 -2.95
23-15-3 +4.45 Total

I knew I should have taken COL TTU.... as I hated the handedness situation/numbers of ATL vs COL Pitcher but loved fried's matchup. Mistakes were madeeee

NYY TTo 2.5 -145 2.9-2

CLV/BAL U4 -105 1.05-1
PIT -0.5 +100 1-1
CWS/TBR U3.5 -125 1.25-1
SFG/MIA U3.5 -125 1.25-1
ATL TTo 2.5 +105 1-1.05

Want to play TEX but thought the price would have been better.
lean MIN/TOR U, SDP/MIL U
 
1-5 -6.2
24-20-3 -1.75 Total

TOR -0.5 -165 3.3-2
HOU -0.5 -145 2.9-2

TOR TT o2.5 -125 1.25-1
PIT TT u1.5 -130 1.3-1
SFG ML -140 1.4-1
HOU TT o2.5 -135 1.35-1
SEA ML +105 1-1.05
TEX TT u1.5 +125 1-1.25
 
CIN ML -115 1.15-1
TEX ML -110 1.1-1 (Weather could be an issue)
HOU TTu 2.5 -125 1.25-1
TOR/KCR O5.5 -125 1.25-1
NYM ML +100 1-1
 
2-2 -0.5

30-25-4 -2.8 Total

TEX ML -110 1.1-1
CIN TT O2.5 -135 1.35-1
WAS/MIA O5 -105 1.05-1

More most likely later... I will be taking BAL or against CHC in some fashion, as Bradish's peripherals are way better than that ERA floating around, the opposite can be said about STL/Hudson.
 
ScopeY said:
2-2 -0.5

30-25-4 -2.8 Total

TEX ML -110 1.1-1
CIN TT O2.5 -135 1.35-1
WAS/MIA O5 -105 1.05-1

More most likely later... I will be taking BAL or against CHC in some fashion, as Bradish's peripherals are way better than that ERA floating around, the opposite can be said about STL/Hudson.
Click to expand...

Hudson a serious pain in the ass, might be hardest pitcher for me to figure out. It not that he out performs his peripherals that bothers me, I actually love guys who consistently do that and I know why, tends to be good value on those guys as the die hard analytic types will always fade them expecting regression. Not like it a fluke w him, he will always out perform the advanced stuff cause he pitches to contact and the analytics tend to frown on that. My problem with the Mfer is his control been all over the place, he can sometimes get away with the walks cause he has a excellent d behind him and gets a ton of ground balls, problem is when those grounders find holes after a few walks. When he not walking guys he incredibly tough to score on cause you basically have to put together 2-3-4 hits, he gets so much movement on his sinker he tough to square up. Just never know when his command will be good this year. Regardless what he does I think rays overpriced starting a lefty vs a real good lhp hitting lineup.
 
2-1 +0.9
32-26-4 -1.9 Total

Hudson just doing his thang. Didn't post late night but balty worked out perfect

DET/PIT O4.5 +105 1-1.05
 
Great start....

NYY -0.5 -130 2.6-2
PHI -0.5 -110 2.2-2

HOU TT U2.5 -150 1.5-1
NYY TT O2.5 -125 1.25-1
SFG -0.5 -145 1.45-1
 
I really don’t like that jap pitcher of theirs. He another one who I find really tough to figure out when he gonna pitch well.,
 
1-6 -7
33-33-4 -8.9 Total

I continue to get the yanks wrong every time it seems.

Love Cincy today...great match up for the batters and mahle is a reverse splits righty going against 7~ lefties. Sign me up

CIN -0.5 +100 2-2
 
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