Week 9 Upset Alert!
Cash in with this quadruple pack of ML dogs on Saturday's card.
Wake Forest (4-3) hosts Louisville (5-3) this Saturday at 12:20 PM ET. The Cardinals are favored by a field goal.
The key for Wake Forest's defense will be to control the line of scrimmage, achieve penetration, and stop Louisville's Heisman candidate Lamar Jackson from escaping the backfield.
The Demon Deacons rank 41st in allowing 4.1 yards per attempt. This number is inflated because of their poor second half last week. In the first half, they held the top-ranked Yellow Jackets' spread offense to 3.9 yards per carry on 34 carries.
Wake Forest's first-half performance against the Jackets' rush attack reveals their potential against a Jackson-led Louisville squad that, as a whole, averages 34 attempts per carry. Louisville's rush attack is not equipped to wear down, as Georgia Tech did, a Wake Forest defense that leads the NCAA with 9 tackles for loss per game.
Louisville's defense, before facing Florida State's anemic offense, had given up 35+ points in each of their four games before against ACC opponents.
Wake's pass attack can exploit a Louisville pass defense that ranks 93rd in opposing quarterback rating. Quarterback John Wolford is improving his accuracy and decision-making: last season, his touchdown: interception ratio was 9:10. This season, it is 10:2. His top target is freshman Greg Dortch, who has made an immediate impact, combining for 18 receptions and 235 yards against the top-50 pass defenses of Florida State and Georgia Tech.
Also note that Louisville is on an 0-8 ATS run on field turf while Wake is 6-0-1 ATS after a loss.
NCAAF Pick: Wake Forest +3
Colorado (4-4) hosts California (4-4) this Saturday at 2:00 PM ET. The Buffaloes are favored by just over a field goal.
The key for California is the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
The Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS this season when rushing for 100+ yards. The Buffaloes, who are 0-4 ATS against the Pac-12 when allowing 100+ rushing yards, rank 117th in allowing 5.4 yards per carry. They have an undersized defense and a soft defensive line, whose big defensive tackle, Javier Edwards, is listed as 'questionable' for the game Saturday. Even with him, they have trouble maintaining gap security in their two-gap scheme.
The Buffaloes have been especially vulnerable against Pac-12 competition. In their last 3 games, the Buffaloes are allowing 7.4 yards per carry. 2 weeks ago, the Buffaloes allowed 6.1 yards per carry against Oregon State, who averages 4.5 yards per carry on the season. Last week, the Buffaloes allowed Washington State to rush for 5.5 yards per carry, despite averaging 2.9 on the season.
California is a pass-first team that will rely on quarterback Ross Bowers to open up the running game. In order to pass against Colorado, it is crucial to have depth at wide receiver. Colorado's Isaiah Oliver has the talent of a lockdown corner, but there is vast drop-off in terms of ability behind him at cornerback. California's duo at wide receiver, Vic Wharton and Kanawai Noa average 14-15+ yards per reception and have caught for 550 yards.
The Buffaloes' offensive line has been called out for being soft, but they lack the talent to respond. They rank 108th in terms of sack percentage allowed and present an even match-up for California’s defensive line. Especially when quarterback Steve Montez faces pressure, he will display his vulnerability to throwing interceptions against a secondary that ranks 7th in % of opponents’ interceptions thrown.
Colorado’s defense is in disarray, allowing 28 points to an extremely sloppy Washington State offense. The week before, Oregon State scored a season-high (vs FBS teams) 33 points. Colorado is missing so many players on both sides of the ball due to offseason departures and disciplinary issues. Their confidence in Montez is so severely lacking that he was replaced against the Cougars last week with a freshman quarterback. Colorado also faces the additional challenge of distraction: they have lost 8 out of their last 9 homecoming games.
NCAAF Pick: California +4
No. 9 Notre Dame (6-1) hosts No. 14 NC State (6-1) this Saturday at 3:30 PM. The Irish are favored by 7-7.5 points.
Notre Dame has been receiving positive publicity for the performance of its physical rush attack against USC. Against Notre Dame, USC was missing its three best defensive tackles. Brandon Fili, the fourth defensive tackle, was going to be redshirted, but had to play due to injury. Because the inexperienced freshman had no rotation, Notre Dame had no problem shredding the interior of the Trojans' defensive line.
NC State's defensive line, led by the combined 19 tackles for loss from Darian Roseboro and Bradley Chubb at defensive end and two massively strong defensive tackles, presents an obstacle that Notre Dame hasn't dealt with since their 20-19 defeat against Georgia. The Wolfpack's run defense ranks one spot behind Georgia, 14th, in allowing an average of 3.1 yards per carry. This obstacle is decisive because Notre Dame relies most on its rush attack. Notre Dame's one non-cover this season came against Georgia, where they ran for less than 100 yards. Quarterback Brandon Wimbush is an inconsistent quarterback who struggles with accuracy. His completion % on the season is 51.
Quarterback Ryan Finley leads the Wolfpack's offense with a 69% completion and 11:0 touchdown to interception ratio. Notre Dame ranks a respectable 34th in opposing quarterback rating but hasn't faced any obstacles at quarterback. They did face USC's hyped-up Sam Darnold, who has been a disappointment all season and, with his typical inclination for turning the ball over, helped Notre Dame more than hurt them. Forcing interceptions has been a prominent theme in Irish victories, but they will be difficult to achieve against Finley.
NCAAF Pick: NC State +7.5
Arizona (5-2) hosts No 15 Washington State (7-1) this Saturday at 9:30 PM ET. The Cougars are favored by a field goal.
Washington State's air-raid attack has fallen into disarray. Quarterback Luke Falk began the season with a 19:2 interception ratio before being intercepted 5 times by California in a 37-3 loss.
The Cougars beat Colorado, last week, 28-3, but his 50% completion is way more telling than the three touchdowns that he threw.
The Cougars' pass attack has been sloppy because of Falk. He is struggling to release the ball as quickly has he had been doing. Instead, he has grown more indecisive, processing opposing schemes more slowly, and displaying rust with his passing accuracy. His slowness is critical behind an offensive line that ranks outside the top 100 in pass protection.
With development in terms of talent, depth and with continuity under second-year defensive coordinator Marcel Yates, Arizona's pass defense has taken huge strides, dropping its opposing QB rating from 153 last season (ranked 121st) to 120.6 this season (ranked 45th). The secondary has benefited from increased pressure upon the opposing quarterback, as the Wildcats ranked 111th in sack percentage last season, but 62nd this season.
The Wildcats' defense is well-constructed against the air-raid attack. Against Pac-12 opponents, they are 3-0 ATS when passed on 30+ times and 0-1 ATS when passed on fewer than 30 times. Falk's difficulties will resume against an improving 4-2-5 defense that can also apply pressure without having to devote too much attention to combating the Cougars' disappointing offensive line.
Arizona has won 3 straight games as underdog since Khalil Tate became their quarterback. His dynamic rushing skills have taken his conference by surprise, while he also benefits from an Arizona offensive line that ranks 15th in sack percentage allowed. In 3 conference games, Tate has run for almost 700 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Cougars have not had much experience against mobile quarterbacks. The one that they faced, Boise State's Montell Cozart, earned a season-high 72 rush yards in a near major upset.
NCAAF Pick: Arizona +3
Cash in with this quadruple pack of ML dogs on Saturday's card.
Wake Forest (4-3) hosts Louisville (5-3) this Saturday at 12:20 PM ET. The Cardinals are favored by a field goal.
The key for Wake Forest's defense will be to control the line of scrimmage, achieve penetration, and stop Louisville's Heisman candidate Lamar Jackson from escaping the backfield.
The Demon Deacons rank 41st in allowing 4.1 yards per attempt. This number is inflated because of their poor second half last week. In the first half, they held the top-ranked Yellow Jackets' spread offense to 3.9 yards per carry on 34 carries.
Wake Forest's first-half performance against the Jackets' rush attack reveals their potential against a Jackson-led Louisville squad that, as a whole, averages 34 attempts per carry. Louisville's rush attack is not equipped to wear down, as Georgia Tech did, a Wake Forest defense that leads the NCAA with 9 tackles for loss per game.
Louisville's defense, before facing Florida State's anemic offense, had given up 35+ points in each of their four games before against ACC opponents.
Wake's pass attack can exploit a Louisville pass defense that ranks 93rd in opposing quarterback rating. Quarterback John Wolford is improving his accuracy and decision-making: last season, his touchdown: interception ratio was 9:10. This season, it is 10:2. His top target is freshman Greg Dortch, who has made an immediate impact, combining for 18 receptions and 235 yards against the top-50 pass defenses of Florida State and Georgia Tech.
Also note that Louisville is on an 0-8 ATS run on field turf while Wake is 6-0-1 ATS after a loss.
NCAAF Pick: Wake Forest +3
Colorado (4-4) hosts California (4-4) this Saturday at 2:00 PM ET. The Buffaloes are favored by just over a field goal.
The key for California is the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
The Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS this season when rushing for 100+ yards. The Buffaloes, who are 0-4 ATS against the Pac-12 when allowing 100+ rushing yards, rank 117th in allowing 5.4 yards per carry. They have an undersized defense and a soft defensive line, whose big defensive tackle, Javier Edwards, is listed as 'questionable' for the game Saturday. Even with him, they have trouble maintaining gap security in their two-gap scheme.
The Buffaloes have been especially vulnerable against Pac-12 competition. In their last 3 games, the Buffaloes are allowing 7.4 yards per carry. 2 weeks ago, the Buffaloes allowed 6.1 yards per carry against Oregon State, who averages 4.5 yards per carry on the season. Last week, the Buffaloes allowed Washington State to rush for 5.5 yards per carry, despite averaging 2.9 on the season.
California is a pass-first team that will rely on quarterback Ross Bowers to open up the running game. In order to pass against Colorado, it is crucial to have depth at wide receiver. Colorado's Isaiah Oliver has the talent of a lockdown corner, but there is vast drop-off in terms of ability behind him at cornerback. California's duo at wide receiver, Vic Wharton and Kanawai Noa average 14-15+ yards per reception and have caught for 550 yards.
The Buffaloes' offensive line has been called out for being soft, but they lack the talent to respond. They rank 108th in terms of sack percentage allowed and present an even match-up for California’s defensive line. Especially when quarterback Steve Montez faces pressure, he will display his vulnerability to throwing interceptions against a secondary that ranks 7th in % of opponents’ interceptions thrown.
Colorado’s defense is in disarray, allowing 28 points to an extremely sloppy Washington State offense. The week before, Oregon State scored a season-high (vs FBS teams) 33 points. Colorado is missing so many players on both sides of the ball due to offseason departures and disciplinary issues. Their confidence in Montez is so severely lacking that he was replaced against the Cougars last week with a freshman quarterback. Colorado also faces the additional challenge of distraction: they have lost 8 out of their last 9 homecoming games.
NCAAF Pick: California +4
No. 9 Notre Dame (6-1) hosts No. 14 NC State (6-1) this Saturday at 3:30 PM. The Irish are favored by 7-7.5 points.
Notre Dame has been receiving positive publicity for the performance of its physical rush attack against USC. Against Notre Dame, USC was missing its three best defensive tackles. Brandon Fili, the fourth defensive tackle, was going to be redshirted, but had to play due to injury. Because the inexperienced freshman had no rotation, Notre Dame had no problem shredding the interior of the Trojans' defensive line.
NC State's defensive line, led by the combined 19 tackles for loss from Darian Roseboro and Bradley Chubb at defensive end and two massively strong defensive tackles, presents an obstacle that Notre Dame hasn't dealt with since their 20-19 defeat against Georgia. The Wolfpack's run defense ranks one spot behind Georgia, 14th, in allowing an average of 3.1 yards per carry. This obstacle is decisive because Notre Dame relies most on its rush attack. Notre Dame's one non-cover this season came against Georgia, where they ran for less than 100 yards. Quarterback Brandon Wimbush is an inconsistent quarterback who struggles with accuracy. His completion % on the season is 51.
Quarterback Ryan Finley leads the Wolfpack's offense with a 69% completion and 11:0 touchdown to interception ratio. Notre Dame ranks a respectable 34th in opposing quarterback rating but hasn't faced any obstacles at quarterback. They did face USC's hyped-up Sam Darnold, who has been a disappointment all season and, with his typical inclination for turning the ball over, helped Notre Dame more than hurt them. Forcing interceptions has been a prominent theme in Irish victories, but they will be difficult to achieve against Finley.
NCAAF Pick: NC State +7.5
Arizona (5-2) hosts No 15 Washington State (7-1) this Saturday at 9:30 PM ET. The Cougars are favored by a field goal.
Washington State's air-raid attack has fallen into disarray. Quarterback Luke Falk began the season with a 19:2 interception ratio before being intercepted 5 times by California in a 37-3 loss.
The Cougars beat Colorado, last week, 28-3, but his 50% completion is way more telling than the three touchdowns that he threw.
The Cougars' pass attack has been sloppy because of Falk. He is struggling to release the ball as quickly has he had been doing. Instead, he has grown more indecisive, processing opposing schemes more slowly, and displaying rust with his passing accuracy. His slowness is critical behind an offensive line that ranks outside the top 100 in pass protection.
With development in terms of talent, depth and with continuity under second-year defensive coordinator Marcel Yates, Arizona's pass defense has taken huge strides, dropping its opposing QB rating from 153 last season (ranked 121st) to 120.6 this season (ranked 45th). The secondary has benefited from increased pressure upon the opposing quarterback, as the Wildcats ranked 111th in sack percentage last season, but 62nd this season.
The Wildcats' defense is well-constructed against the air-raid attack. Against Pac-12 opponents, they are 3-0 ATS when passed on 30+ times and 0-1 ATS when passed on fewer than 30 times. Falk's difficulties will resume against an improving 4-2-5 defense that can also apply pressure without having to devote too much attention to combating the Cougars' disappointing offensive line.
Arizona has won 3 straight games as underdog since Khalil Tate became their quarterback. His dynamic rushing skills have taken his conference by surprise, while he also benefits from an Arizona offensive line that ranks 15th in sack percentage allowed. In 3 conference games, Tate has run for almost 700 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Cougars have not had much experience against mobile quarterbacks. The one that they faced, Boise State's Montell Cozart, earned a season-high 72 rush yards in a near major upset.
NCAAF Pick: Arizona +3
Last edited:
