Tough article to write. Impossible to maintain the 800 word count. But hopefully that will be forgiven since this is three in one...
Upset Alert! Triple Pack of Dangerous Underdogs
Cash in on three underdogs that may win their respective game outright.
#11 Miami (4-0) hosts Georgia Tech (3-1) this Saturday at 3:30 PM ET. Miami opened as 7.5 point favorites, but that number has been bet down to 5.5.
Miami is in a dangerous spot, coming off a last-second, emotional revenge victory against in-state rival Florida State. They are prime to suffer a letdown at home against unranked Georgia Tech.
Travis Homer, who has yet to rush more than 8 times in a game against an FBS opponent, must replace injured running back Mark Walton, who had been averaging 7.6 yards per carry.
Dual-threat quarterback Malik Rosier leads Miami's balanced attack. Rosier's poor 58% season completion is inflated by playing Bethune-Cookman and Toledo. Against Florida State's higher-ranked pass defense, Rosier completed just 43% of his passes. Despite a regression in his run support, Rosier will try to improve his passing against a Georgia Tech defense that returns all 4 starters from last year and is ranked 22nd in passing yards allowed.
Georgia Tech's offense features a lethal option run attack that should succeed against a Miami defense which, led by a trio of sophomore linebackers, gave up 200 yards against Florida State's rush attack last week and 183 against Duke's the week before.
Miami consistently struggles against rushing attacks that are able to feature a multifaceted running game that also utilizes a mobile quarterback. KirVonte Benson and TaQuon Marshall lead the Yellow Jackets' rush attack. Both average over 5 yards per carry and have combined for 13 touchdowns. Unlike Miami's previous opponents, the Jackets boast superior numbers at both third-down and red zone conversion.
NCAAF Pick: Georgia Tech +7
Georgia Tech ML +222.
#21 Michigan State (4-1) travels to face Minnesota (3-2) this Saturday at 8:00 PM ET. The Spartans opened as 3 point favorites, but this number has been bet up to 4.
The Spartans' spot is difficult because they are, since 2014, 0-3 ATS in the first half of their first game after playing Michigan. The Spartans tend to come out flat after playing what they consider to be the biggest game of their season. Their physicality and aggressive pursuit of the ball helped them against Michigan, but both should wane against a Gophers offensive line that is 2nd in sacks allowed per game, compared to Michigan's 112th.
Michigan State defeated their two conference opponents who underutilized a talented rush attack. Minnesota, however, is a rush-first offense featuring running backs Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks.
Smith is extremely elusive and excels at making defenders miss. He also runs through contact with high frequency. Brooks ably cuts through defenders, while he runs with downhill momentum and boasts breakaway speed. Both combined for over 200 yards and more than 5 yards per carry last week against a highly-ranked Purdue run defense.
A superior Minnesota rush attack behind a healthy and improving line can follow Notre Dame's run-heavy recipe against the Spartans. Minnesota is also ranked 34th in forcing turnovers, which is an area that Michigan State has struggled with.
Running back LJ Scott has been particularly prone to fumble. He is listed as 'questionable' vs Minnesota. Quarterback Brian Lewerke is actually the Spartans' leading rusher.
Lewerke is a conservative passer, who isn't inclined to make the big passes that could exploit the Gophers' lack of health in the secondary. Michigan State likes to control time of possession and grind out drives with shorter plays.
Minnesota's defensive tandem of Steven Richardson at defensive tackle and Jon Celestin at linebacker will be seminal to containing the Spartans. Richardson will regularly occupy double teams from the Spartans' largely inexperienced offensive line, which will allow Celestin to utilize his speed, ability to recognize offensive schemes and adjustments, and aggression in pursuit.
NCAAF Pick: Minnesota 1H +2.5
Check back for the 1H ML.
Oregon State (1-5) hosts Colorado (3-3) this Saturday at 4:00 PM ET. Colorado opened as 12.5 point favorites, but that number has been bet down to 10.
The spot for Colorado is difficult because they travel after having vowed last week not to lose another game, but came up short in a deflating loss at home against Arizona.
Colorado's performance on defense dropped significantly once they began facing conference opponents. Oregon State may be 1-5, but they had reasonable hope to build off of last season's successes.
The spot for Oregon State is positive because Head Coach Gary Andersen has departed. Anderson had a negative mindset toward his team that instilled a toxic culture in the locker room. With Anderson gone, Oregon State should play looser and rediscover its ability.
Last season, the Beavers gave nearly every visitor a difficult time and concluded the season with two home wins. This season, the Beavers have been tough in the first half, while Andersen failed to make proper halftime adjustments and then saw his team get decimated.
Colorado is undersized in the defensive line and will be vulnerable to the bruising power of Oregon State running back Ryan Nall and of an offensive line that is supporting Nall's 5.5 yards per carry average and giving up few sacks. Colorado suffers the same problem in the secondary, where Jordan Villamin can use his body to catch important passes.
The Beavers will look to control the ball with their well-sized playmakers. With their young but talented and battle-tested secondary and their veteran playmakers at linebacker, they can limit the play-making ability of Colorado's Steve Montez, who is prone to interceptions, and contain running back Phillip Lindsay.
NCAAF Pick: Oregon State 1H +7
Check back for 1H ML
Upset Alert! Triple Pack of Dangerous Underdogs
Cash in on three underdogs that may win their respective game outright.
#11 Miami (4-0) hosts Georgia Tech (3-1) this Saturday at 3:30 PM ET. Miami opened as 7.5 point favorites, but that number has been bet down to 5.5.
Miami is in a dangerous spot, coming off a last-second, emotional revenge victory against in-state rival Florida State. They are prime to suffer a letdown at home against unranked Georgia Tech.
Travis Homer, who has yet to rush more than 8 times in a game against an FBS opponent, must replace injured running back Mark Walton, who had been averaging 7.6 yards per carry.
Dual-threat quarterback Malik Rosier leads Miami's balanced attack. Rosier's poor 58% season completion is inflated by playing Bethune-Cookman and Toledo. Against Florida State's higher-ranked pass defense, Rosier completed just 43% of his passes. Despite a regression in his run support, Rosier will try to improve his passing against a Georgia Tech defense that returns all 4 starters from last year and is ranked 22nd in passing yards allowed.
Georgia Tech's offense features a lethal option run attack that should succeed against a Miami defense which, led by a trio of sophomore linebackers, gave up 200 yards against Florida State's rush attack last week and 183 against Duke's the week before.
Miami consistently struggles against rushing attacks that are able to feature a multifaceted running game that also utilizes a mobile quarterback. KirVonte Benson and TaQuon Marshall lead the Yellow Jackets' rush attack. Both average over 5 yards per carry and have combined for 13 touchdowns. Unlike Miami's previous opponents, the Jackets boast superior numbers at both third-down and red zone conversion.
NCAAF Pick: Georgia Tech +7
Georgia Tech ML +222.
#21 Michigan State (4-1) travels to face Minnesota (3-2) this Saturday at 8:00 PM ET. The Spartans opened as 3 point favorites, but this number has been bet up to 4.
The Spartans' spot is difficult because they are, since 2014, 0-3 ATS in the first half of their first game after playing Michigan. The Spartans tend to come out flat after playing what they consider to be the biggest game of their season. Their physicality and aggressive pursuit of the ball helped them against Michigan, but both should wane against a Gophers offensive line that is 2nd in sacks allowed per game, compared to Michigan's 112th.
Michigan State defeated their two conference opponents who underutilized a talented rush attack. Minnesota, however, is a rush-first offense featuring running backs Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks.
Smith is extremely elusive and excels at making defenders miss. He also runs through contact with high frequency. Brooks ably cuts through defenders, while he runs with downhill momentum and boasts breakaway speed. Both combined for over 200 yards and more than 5 yards per carry last week against a highly-ranked Purdue run defense.
A superior Minnesota rush attack behind a healthy and improving line can follow Notre Dame's run-heavy recipe against the Spartans. Minnesota is also ranked 34th in forcing turnovers, which is an area that Michigan State has struggled with.
Running back LJ Scott has been particularly prone to fumble. He is listed as 'questionable' vs Minnesota. Quarterback Brian Lewerke is actually the Spartans' leading rusher.
Lewerke is a conservative passer, who isn't inclined to make the big passes that could exploit the Gophers' lack of health in the secondary. Michigan State likes to control time of possession and grind out drives with shorter plays.
Minnesota's defensive tandem of Steven Richardson at defensive tackle and Jon Celestin at linebacker will be seminal to containing the Spartans. Richardson will regularly occupy double teams from the Spartans' largely inexperienced offensive line, which will allow Celestin to utilize his speed, ability to recognize offensive schemes and adjustments, and aggression in pursuit.
NCAAF Pick: Minnesota 1H +2.5
Check back for the 1H ML.
Oregon State (1-5) hosts Colorado (3-3) this Saturday at 4:00 PM ET. Colorado opened as 12.5 point favorites, but that number has been bet down to 10.
The spot for Colorado is difficult because they travel after having vowed last week not to lose another game, but came up short in a deflating loss at home against Arizona.
Colorado's performance on defense dropped significantly once they began facing conference opponents. Oregon State may be 1-5, but they had reasonable hope to build off of last season's successes.
The spot for Oregon State is positive because Head Coach Gary Andersen has departed. Anderson had a negative mindset toward his team that instilled a toxic culture in the locker room. With Anderson gone, Oregon State should play looser and rediscover its ability.
Last season, the Beavers gave nearly every visitor a difficult time and concluded the season with two home wins. This season, the Beavers have been tough in the first half, while Andersen failed to make proper halftime adjustments and then saw his team get decimated.
Colorado is undersized in the defensive line and will be vulnerable to the bruising power of Oregon State running back Ryan Nall and of an offensive line that is supporting Nall's 5.5 yards per carry average and giving up few sacks. Colorado suffers the same problem in the secondary, where Jordan Villamin can use his body to catch important passes.
The Beavers will look to control the ball with their well-sized playmakers. With their young but talented and battle-tested secondary and their veteran playmakers at linebacker, they can limit the play-making ability of Colorado's Steve Montez, who is prone to interceptions, and contain running back Phillip Lindsay.
NCAAF Pick: Oregon State 1H +7
Check back for 1H ML
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