ML Dog Week 13 Edition

JROCK1966

JROCK1966

Big Blue Nation
With respect to @ProV1Colt & @s--k here it is! Where you guys at?



1st trip through/Initial thoughts:

UTEP - can UAB give another poor-ass effort at home like they did vs. Rice? Esp. after losing like they did this past week?
East Carolina - Cincy most likely will go undefeated in the regular-season but there is a part of me saying each of the past few weeks that they are due for a stumble. Navy took this Cincy team down to the wire so I don't see why ECU can't. ECU has played pretty stingy at times this season. Cincy coming off a huge win over SMU so stock is high and no where to go but down. I'm thinking this game has the possibility of being the shocker of the week.
Michigan - I read some quote the other day by Harbaugh that essentially said "fuck it why not us winning it all?" Not those exact words of course but you get the idea. Is this the year he finally gets it done over the Buckeyes?
Kansas - WVU rated 50th in Sagarin ratings...can you believe Texas is 41st? 9 spots ahead of WVU? TCU, which Kansas played tough, is 63rd. Kansas played both these teams otr now have WVU at home. Looks to me like the Jayhawks may still be lurking a bit under the radar. WVU needs this win though for bowl eligibility so I'm thinking they may be a tough out for the Jayhawks...still worth a shot though at almost +500 odds.
Hokies - rivalry game.
Northwestern - another rivalry game.
Minny - another rivalry game and a home dog to boot!
Charlotte - ODU a 10pt fav? C'mon man!
USC - home dog. Is BYU really that good?
Oregon State - rivalry game and will the Ducks be able to shake off that huge loss which got 'em booted out of the playoffs last week?
LSU - home dog.
Stanford - get the fuckin' Irish out of the playoff picture man!! Stanford did win at home vs. the Ducks so there is that.
Hawaii - perhaps??
Tulsa - SMU still hungover from that beatdown last week?? Tulsa has had a habit this season of playing tough as a big underdog.


:popcorn:
 
I think most have a shot. Cant play Stanford as the risk isnt worth the reward. Also dont think I can play Hawaii.....they have flow to the mainland and back after every game this year...the defense is exhausted and I think the O shot their load last week. Temps will be 50ish in Wyoming, so not bad....was hoping for 32ish....I expect this Wyoming offense to roll on the ground and for the defense to make some stops....
 
JROCK1966 said:
With respect to @ProV1Colt & @s--k here it is! Where you guys at?



1st trip through/Initial thoughts:

UTEP - can UAB give another poor-ass effort at home like they did vs. Rice? Esp. after losing like they did this past week?
East Carolina - Cincy most likely will go undefeated in the regular-season but there is a part of me saying each of the past few weeks that they are due for a stumble. Navy took this Cincy team down to the wire so I don't see why ECU can't. ECU has played pretty stingy at times this season. Cincy coming off a huge win over SMU so stock is high and no where to go but down. I'm thinking this game has the possibility of being the shocker of the week.
Michigan - I read some quote the other day by Harbaugh that essentially said "fuck it why not us winning it all?" Not those exact words of course but you get the idea. Is this the year he finally gets it done over the Buckeyes?
Kansas - WVU rated 50th in Sagarin ratings...can you believe Texas is 41st? 9 spots ahead of WVU? TCU, which Kansas played tough, is 63rd. Kansas played both these teams otr now have WVU at home. Looks to me like the Jayhawks may still be lurking a bit under the radar. WVU needs this win though for bowl eligibility so I'm thinking they may be a tough out for the Jayhawks...still worth a shot though at almost +500 odds.
Hokies - rivalry game.
Northwestern - another rivalry game.
Minny - another rivalry game and a home dog to boot!
Charlotte - ODU a 10pt fav? C'mon man!
USC - home dog. Is BYU really that good?
Oregon State - rivalry game and will the Ducks be able to shake off that huge loss which got 'em booted out of the playoffs last week?
LSU - home dog.
Stanford - get the fuckin' Irish out of the playoff picture man!! Stanford did win at home vs. the Ducks so there is that.
Hawaii - perhaps??
Tulsa - SMU still hungover from that beatdown last week?? Tulsa has had a habit this season of playing tough as a big underdog.


:popcorn:
Click to expand...
Hawaii needs the win to get to 6 wins and Host their Bowl game.
 
s--k said:
The bowl game eligibility game sometimes gets too much weight. Not all the teams that need it get it. Happens a lot.
Click to expand...

it kinda like the last week of nfl with the teams that "have to win" to get in playoffs, i think more times than not they come up short. After all there is a reason they in this spot, cause they not very good.
 
For Friday, I am going to pick one or two among these:

Eastern Michigan, UTEP, ECU, Missouri, USF, South Alabama, UNC

Central Michigan is the better team, well rounded and solid MAC D. But if you catch Eastern on the right week, their O can be really good. Both teams will be highly motivated as the winner gets the Michigan MAC trophy as each beat Western. EM run D is biggest concern.

I still worry about UTEP vs the better roster type teams and UAB does fit that category, so I worry. But, if they catch UAB playing a 'B' game here off that tough UTSA loss that cost them the division, then UTEP could have a shot. Yes, Rice did beat UAB in Birmingham, but UAB is actually fairly bad vs everyone at home now for some reason (new stadium, they used to be awesome SU and ATS at Legion Field). UAB lost by 24 at home vs Liberty, lost to Rice as mentioned, "only" beat LaTech by 14 laying 13.5 (allowed LaTech 38 pts). They did beat FAU pretty bad there. UTEP came out of their funk 2nd H last week. If UTEP can carry 2nd H momentum and we get that 'B' game from UAB this could happen.

Fickle's Cincy teams don't play as well at ECU as they do at home. 2017 and 2019 ECU won 48-20 (Fickle first year) and Cincy won by 3 in '19. When at Nippert it has been hammertime, Bearcats 111-23! ECU has rounded into a pretty solid team. Still deficient at LOS, which is concern, and always need to be careful with turnovers and UC can and will turn you over. If ECU can avoid the turnovers, they could keep it close. Cincy proved capable of winning big vs quality team last week vs SMU, but games vs Tulsa and the rest still prove they are also capable of subpar performances.

USF fired the DC, about time. Whatever they do, whoever is calling the plays and alignment it can only get better from here. Sneaky rivalry game, UCF still isn't all that great and USF has shown improvement in some ways at times this year. The only really great win UCF has with this current QB is the Memphis game, but Memphis was on their backup QB. I am not going to give UCF much credit for beating UConn and Temple big, because, well even USF beat Temple big. How about UCF's 14-10 game vs Tulane? UCF got blown out by 27 pts to a good SMU team. UCF teams of old would never lose that big. They are not a UCF team of old, but are still being lined like it. UCF has won the last 3, but last year was just a 12 pt game (high scoring).

South Alabama might be a little beat up, off back-to-back games vs Tennessee and App State. I am concerned they could be running on empty here (lost 3 straight ATS). They have been good at home this year, 3-1 SU and the one loss was a 2pt loss to ULL. I think the Coastal run D can be had vs teams capable of running. Coastal is also failing expectations, just 1-4 ATS their last 5. Will need big effort by USA here!

North Carolina is just a crazy rivalry game pick. It's one of the only night games and if it ends up being a close game, a weird roller coaster type, I will want a piece of that action. If NC State wins going away, so be it.
 
That unc/Nc state game can definitely go either way. UNC played Pitt/wake/nd all tough down the stretch. NcSt not better than those teams plus add in rivalry game + Mac Brown as an underdog and anything can happen. Concern here is unc has won last couple meetings so nc state should be hungry.

Already bet ECU and Mizzu plus the pts but give both of them a decent chance to win outright as well.
 
I know what I said last week, but...it's the trap I fall in. If any number of them happen and I'm not part of it, will ruin my day.

Eastern Michigan 50 to win 135
UTEP 50 to win 212
Mizzou 50 to win 235
USF 50 to win 350
ECU 20 to win 85
UNC 50 to win 100
 
I need to follow my own advice. I'm chasing something that keeps leading me down a path of destruction.

As of right now I think I am just playing one tomorrow ML, Cal.

Really like Cal. Cal is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a dog this year (including 3-0 ATS road dogs)(TCU, Wash, Ore, OreSt). They pulled one upset as a tiny home dog vs Oregon State. Cal is playing it's best football of the season if you take out the covid game at Arizona where they were without several players and coaches including Garbers. Taking Arizona out of the equation, Cal has won 3 straight games and their last loss when the team was full strength they were inside the 5 at Autzen threatening to tie when the game ended. The Cal D has improved as the year went on. It is true that some of their recent games which include PAC12 weak Os in Stanford and Colorado helps make the D look better (UCLA just padded some stats vs CU as well). It was a Cal D that had to shuffle early in the season due to injuries, Cal has 4 new starters now on D as the season has progressed and younger players emerged (like Fr CB Lu-Magia Hearns 4 pbus last week)(like Fr LB Rutchena 11 tkls last week).

The Cal O and D should both be ready to produce in a big game like this. And it is a big game, a rivalry. Both teams are also off huge rivalry games that matter a lot to the programs. UCLA won at USC 62-33, the most points the Bruins have ever scored on USC! But UCLA is just 1-6 when playing the week after facing USC, the one win was vs Cal on a last second FG. Cal won at Stanford 41-11 and racked up a series high 636 yards of O. That too is a huge rivalry game. Where the Bruins have struggled post USC, Cal has done well. Cal has won 5 of it's last 7 games straight up when they play the week after Stanford to close the season. The two losses were that one UCLA game in 2017 by 3 (+7) and a 2014 game vs BYU. Among the 5 wins for Cal includes 2 vs UCLA in 2016 and 2018, both upset wins as dogs.

So history says that Cal handles playing the week after a big rivalry game better than UCLA does.

Recent history also says UCLA is a bad favorite. Bruins are on a 2 game win streak, but have been upset 3x this season as favs (Fresno, ASU, Ore). UCLA has 7 wins and has secured bowl eligibility where as Cal is still fighting to get to 6. They need to beat UCLA and beat USC in the rescheduled game next week. There is a lot of talk about making a bowl among players and coaches on Cal with the way the season started and the way last year went, it sounds like a big goal of theirs.

Adding to the motivating factors for Cal is their game last year in the mess that was PAC12 covid 2020 football, in a hastily scheduled season opening game, UCLA blew out an unprepared Cal team that were down players and their DL had not had contact practices leading up to the game! That was the last time Cal was in the Rose Bowl, where they will be again Saturday night. They will look to atone for that performance.

I think the emotions of last week both can lead to potential let downs here, but I'd argue that UCLA's were higher, more higher profile, being UCLA-USC and all, Bruins hadn't beat them in a few years, it was a priority, there were flashy highlights and headlines coming out of the game. Everyone says the right things after a win like that "it's all about Cal now", but is it?

Cal's D will get a test from a UCLA O. Bruins aren't always very consistent however, see 1st H vs Colorado as exhibit A. When they click, they can be dangerous, see exhibit B, 2nd H vs CU.
 
s--k said:
I know what I said last week, but...it's the trap I fall in. If any number of them happen and I'm not part of it, will ruin my day.

Eastern Michigan 50 to win 135
UTEP 50 to win 212
Mizzou 50 to win 235
USF 50 to win 350
ECU 20 to win 85
UNC 50 to win 100
Click to expand...
USF was sooo close yesterday.
 
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