Akron, Maryland, Missouri, Northwestern, Indiana, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon St, USC, Navy, South Carolina, Troy, Charlotte, Texas Tech, Georgia Southern, FIU, Hawaii
Colorado had put 8+ good quarters of football together. No, not two full games, but from the 2nd Q of the Oregon game through the Oregon State game into the 1st H of the UCLA game, hey the Buffs are back! Then they weren't...UCLA outscored them 34-0 2nd H and it's back to same old CU. Is it? Washington definitely fits the definition of bad favorite. Team is a mess, coaching staff is a mess, can't sustain any execution in games (blew leads last two weeks were lucky to beat Stanford and Arizona shut them out in the 1st H), can't run (held under 100y rushing 4 of last 5 games and 5 of last 6), can't stop the run (allowed over 200y rushing 5 of last 6 (avg 230 allowed in that span). I really don't know who is the worst team here. At their worst, CU is worse. But at their bests that we've seen this year, I'd say CU is atleast on par if not actually better than UW at their respective bests. Need Nate Landman to play, said it last week and he was out again. He's still their leading tackler and has missed the last 3 games. If Landman plays, I'll get on board. This UW O is garbage to lay points on the road, in Boulder.
Stanford. Playing like the worst team in the PAC 12. Not sure Tanner McKee's status? His availability is of critical importance if Stanford has any shot at all. Withouth him other Standord QBs are just 25-45-179-1-3...that is under 4y per att and 55%! With Tanner McKee, it's quite a bit different 160-247-1916-14-5, that is almost 8y per att and 65%. Tree can't run no mater who is QB, but without him, they have ZERO offense. If he is out again I would not even consider Stanford in any way. Huge rivalry game, true. Cal will have everyone who had to miss the Arizona game back and it sounds like they are chomping at the bit to play a game. Before the Arizona loss and covid cluskerfuck, Cal played probably it's two most complete games of the year. As long as they didn't lose the mojo they were gaining and especially if McKee is out again, it is very hard to want to risk any money on Stanford. If McKee plays, in a rivalry game here...the O is going to have some life and maybe. But still, not sure it is all that appealing. Even with McKee, Stanford had lost 3 in a row straight up and 4-of-5. They have pulled two upsets this season, at USC and vs Oregon, so they can surprise when not expected to do so. Cal has been upset twice not counting the Arizona game, but those were all in the first part of the season, they had covered 3 straight prior to Arizona. Stanford won last year by blocking an xpt on Cal's would-be game tying TD to win by 1.
Oregon State secured bowl eligibility last week and I don't know if they will play better now (Smith thought they were playing tight while trying to win 6th game - hadn't been bowl eligible since 2013.) Oregon State lost back-to-back games before breaking through for win #6 last week vs Stanford. Oregon State is good at home. 4-0 SU and ATS at home this year. Upset Utah there. Won 2 of 3 straight up as dogs home last season, the one they didn't vs Arizona State. Sun Devils coming back to Corvallis for third straight year! ASU has only won 2 of last 8 in Corvallis. ASU has righted the ship some, but has done so vs other ships lost at sea in USC and UW. Only led USC 17-16 entering 4th Q and trailed UW 7-17 HT, scored 21 straight 4th Q points. They've been upset twice, most recently vs Wash St and earlier at BYU. Oregon State has pulled 2 upsets in just 3 underdog roles. ASU can be a tough matchup, a couple things that have hurt them this year continue to be problems. 1) penalties 8.7pg for 87 yards and 2) turnovers -3 ratio, -20 lost is tied with Arizona for worst PAC12. Beavers can hold their own Offensively 34ppg 3rd best PAC12, rush O (#8 ncaa 5.47ypc), a pass game that can make big plays (8.3y per att #2 PAC12), 3rd down O 53.9% (#3 ncaa), 73% RZ TDs (#10 ncaa). Pretty solid team. It is concerning they lost to Wazzou, Cal and Colorado. Although it still feels like ASU isn't completely settled either. Would be nice to get a little more return on investment betting Beavs to win straight up.
USC had unexpected week off. USC has been dogged twice this year and lost both at ND and ASU by identical 31-16 scores. Both those finals were somewhat misleading, they moved the ball well on ND, but stalled around the ND 25 and only trailed ASU by 1 entering the 4th Q. USC has failed to cover 4 straight and 5 of last 6. With All-everything WR Drake London out, the USC O has struggled. 312y at ASU was terrible by USC standards, that was about 100y lower than any other low yardage total they put up this year. They came in averaging 485! They were also without London in the 2nd H vs Arizona, they only had 160y and two FGs in the 2nd H. I think Drake London to USC was as critical to their offense as any player in the country, how heavily they relied on him and he delivered, double covered, breaking tackles, body control, sideline catches, you name it he did it. I can't bet USC without Drake London and I can't expect them to win without him. UCLA is a bad favorite being upset 3x by Fresno, Arizona St and Oregon. All 3 of those teams are better than USC however. UCLA turned into a total machine in the 2nd H last week vs Colorado, going on a 34 point unanswered run. It was only CU, so it isn't going to be that easy this week, but that showed me something, they responded to being out-played and out-physicalled. UCLA blew 28-10 lead in last year's crosstown rivalry game and this bunch has lost 2 straight to the Trojans. I think USC lacks weapons on O, has underachieved pretty much every game (0-3 ATS in Coliseum and lost 2 straight up), sure they could care here for this game, but Bruins will care too and this year are the better team. So clearly I am not MLing USC.
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