ML Dog Week 11 Edition

I was going to look through to find the best dogs this season and the worst favorites.

For tonight, can't find much of a worse favorite than Toledo, they have lost 4 straight up as a favorite (Colorado STate, , NIU, CMich, EMich)
Bowing Green has pulled 3 upsets (Murray State, Minnesota, Buffalo)
 
I started posted mine in discussion thread cause didn’t know where this thread was! Guess I coulda took initiative but that not really my Mo. lol. Glad someone did.

Fri night I love me some wyo with the points and think there a decent chance they could pull the upset, Boise hasn’t been good at home and wyo should be a bad matchup for them with their physical run game. I saw chance for some rain, think that would work in wyo favor if it was tough to pass.,
 
Best straight up dogs (only 3 or more wins as dog):

Bowling Green - 3 wins (Murray St, Minn, Buff)
Illinois - 3 wins (Neb, Penn St, Minn)
Michigan State - 3 wins (Northwestern, Miami Fl, Mich)
Minnesota - 3 wins (Colo, Pur, Neb)
Northern Ill - 3 wins (GT, Tol, CMich)
Purdue - 3 wins (Iowa, Neb, MSU)
San Diego State - 3 wins (Arz, Utah, AF)
ULM - 3 wins (Troy, Liberty, SBama)
Utah St - 3 wins (Wash St, AF, CSU)
UTSA - 3 wins (ILL, Mem, WKU)
Washington St - 4 wins (Cal, Ore St, Stan, ASU)

Bad favorites getting upset (only 3 or more losses as fav):

Air Force - upset 3x (Utah St, SD St, Army)
Arizona State - upset 2x (BYU, Washington State, at Utah was pick'em, but they may've shown favored in some spots)
Boise State - upset 3x (Okla St, Nev, AF)
Cal - upset 3x (Nev ,Wash St, Arz)
Colorado State - upset 4x (South Dak St, Vand, Utah St, Wyo)
Florida - upset 3x (UK, LSU, SCar)
Iowa State - upset 3x (Iowa, Baylor, WVU)
Memphis - upset 3x (UTSA, Temple, UCF)
Nebraska - upset 3x (ILL, Min, Pur)
Oregon State - upset 3x (Wash St, Cal, Colo)
North Carolina - upset 3x (VT, GT, FSU)
Toledo - upset 4x (CSU, NIU, CMich, EMich)
Tulsa - upset 3x (UC Davis, Hou, Navy)
UCLA - upset 3x (Fresno, ASU, Ore)
USC - upset 3x (Stan, Ore St, Utah)
Utah - upset 3x (BYU, SD St, Ore St)
Western Mich - upset 3x (Ball, Tol, CMich)
Wisconsin - upset 3x (PSU, ND, Mich)
 
Pitt has played 4 teams with winning records and lost half of them.
Won: Tennessee by 7, Clemson by 10
Lost: Western Mich by 3, Miami by 4

UNC has played 4 teams with winning records and won 3 of 4.
Won: UVA by 20, Miami by 3, WF by 3
Lost: ND by 10

Seems like UNC offensively resembles what Western Mich did. Bad OLs, gun slinging QBs and a D that doesn't get many stops and that recipe worked once. Howell is definitely better than Eleby. Amazing what Howell is doing now with running.

I don't know. Seems like UNC just played a better D 2 weeks ago at Notre Dame and just played a better O last week vs WF. They should be plenty ready for what Pitt has to offer.

Duke did lead 12-7 and 19-14 1st H before Pitt pulled away. Miami led 31-17 HT before Pitt made a game of it.

Pitt's history is full of games they weren't expected to lose.

Close series:

2019 Pitt (-4) 34-27 OT
2018 UNC (+3.5) 38-35
2017 UNC (+9) 34-31
2016 UNC (-7) 37-36
2015 UNC (-3) 26-19
2014 UNC (-2.5) 40-35
2013 UNC (pk) 34-27
 
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I love Nevada for pretty much the same reason I loved fresno vs sdst, Aztecs pass d numbers are totally fraudulent due to Fresno being the only legit passing attack they have seen all year. If Strong is the guy he supposed to be he jumps out on these guys and forces Aztecs offense to be something it isn’t. I don’t agree with money moving this line Aztecs way at all. I guess I’ll look deeper before I pull trigger cause this mostly off top my head, maybe I’m missing something or maybe ppl buying sdst pass defense that failed its only test?
 
I havnt dig deep into capping the Saturday games yet cause I been balls to wall w nba props so I’m not certain on anything yet but I think Minnesota will beat iowa.
 
I have no clue why BC a dog? Seems like they made this line with Grosel at qb, with jurkovec this line ass backwards imo.
 
HEELS

We haven't lost when scoring over 35 and I don't think Pitt can keep us under that number. I wouldn't be shocked to see something like 45-40 as it will ultimately come down to which defense can get a stop as I don't expect to see a lot of punts in this one. If our OL can just be adequate enough to give Sam time to make plays, Downs should have a field day. With that said, I think the key will be whether our OL can open up some holes for Ty, as that will just make things easier for Sam in terms of play action as he is at his best when we have some semblance of a running game to support him. Should be a fun one to watch just like last week.
 
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I like Nevada quite a bit as well. I tend to focus on the larger lines because that is what excites me trying to find those winners. But I fully expect Nevada to win.

There must be something with the PR on BC and GT. VT was +4 at GT. VT closed -1 at BC (1.5 to 2 pt move on Jurkovec news).

Maybe GT still has more offensive upside even with Jurkovec back at BC?
 
agree on unc, pitt been playing weak schedule or non pass teams, only team that could pass was the canes.
uab +4, marshall run defense is a siv; overall think team is down from last year and been playing a weak schedule of late
west virginia - ok their offense sucks but they did score 30 on iowa state. Meanwhile k-state struggles with margin against likes of texas tech and tcu ? 2 teams feel like they are in same class here and anybodys game.
washington state - interim coach may become head coach if he keeps this up; team feels for real
georgia state - ok i think this team is a very emotional/motivational type team. no way they should of gotten blown out by app state after playing with auburn - i think at their best they stand a great shot at the upset here. If they take the night off they get blown out. Coastal d I'm not a fan of.
mississippi state - hot team
minnesota
 
2daBank said:
I love Nevada for pretty much the same reason I loved fresno vs sdst, Aztecs pass d numbers are totally fraudulent due to Fresno being the only legit passing attack they have seen all year. If Strong is the guy he supposed to be he jumps out on these guys and forces Aztecs offense to be something it isn’t. I don’t agree with money moving this line Aztecs way at all. I guess I’ll look deeper before I pull trigger cause this mostly off top my head, maybe I’m missing something or maybe ppl buying sdst pass defense that failed its only test?
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Why won't hoke just rush 3 drop 8 ? Nevada looked bad, like real bad last week. 2 defensive tds or they lose.

Secret is out on nevada's o - drop 8 and nevadas rush offense sucks so bad they still can't run. Then their tackles are worse then michigan state's tackles - so the 3 lineman pressure strong to throw it so quick they end up throwing 2 and 3 yards dump passes and then run for no gain.

Nevada to me is unbettable. No idea what boise's gameplan was this year.
 
EL CAPO said:
Why won't hoke just rush 3 drop 8 ? Nevada looked bad, like real bad last week. 2 defensive tds or they lose.

Secret is out on nevada's o - drop 8 and nevadas rush offense sucks so bad they still can't run. Then their tackles are worse then michigan state's tackles - so the 3 lineman pressure strong to throw it so quick they end up throwing 2 and 3 yards dump passes and then run for no gain.

Nevada to me is unbettable. No idea what boise's gameplan was this year.
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boise has proven several times to have terrible game plans and even worse at making adjustments, that said they way stronger against the pass than the run as they typically play light boxes. i dont really remember that game at the moment but im sure they were dropping 8 cause they did that against a okie lite team the entire game even tho cowboys almost never even threw a pass. Last week against sjst doesnt worry me much, same team took aztecs to overtime with their backup qb. i think it always been widely know Nevada cant really run and they still manage to throw for 360 a game and score points on most everyone. Aztecs have shown no ability to stop good passing attacks despite their metrics, they have only faced one capable passing team all year and we saw how that went. I could basically say the same thing about sdst as you saying bout nevada as aztecs are one dimensional as well, difference being their only strength is running the ball so whats to stop teams from simply stacking the box? or if you get out to a lead on them they pretty much toast. Ill take what Nevada does well and 3 points over what sdst does well all day. i just dont think aztecs can keep nevada out the 20s and that becomes a real problem for their offense to match.
 
Note San Diego State's sometime strength is running the ball. I think there is a perception about them that they just do what they want on the ground every game. It isn't true. They averaged under 3.0 ypc vs two MWC teams who are .500 or worse and some of their other games their run game was just kind of so-so and pretty containable. When I watch their games I am still shocked sometimes how inconsistent their run game can occasionally be when that is their calling card. Last 4 games SD St has run for an average of 130 yards per game. In that span, the Aztec D is actually allowing more yards on the ground (143) than their own O runs for.
 
s--k said:
Note San Diego State's sometime strength is running the ball. I think there is a perception about them that they just do what they want on the ground every game. It isn't true. They averaged under 3.0 ypc vs two MWC teams who are .500 or worse and some of their other games their run game was just kind of so-so and pretty containable. When I watch their games I am still shocked sometimes how inconsistent their run game can occasionally be when that is their calling card. Last 4 games SD St has run for an average of 130 yards per game. In that span, the Aztec D is actually allowing more yards on the ground (143) than their own O runs for.
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yep, i mean they will most likely have success running on a not real good Nevada defense, but it harder to run the ball on anyone when they stacking the box with very little fear of the passing game beating them. Nevada does have a weapon against the run game tho, score points early and force aztecs out of their desired style and pace of play!!
 
s--k said:
Pitt has played 4 teams with winning records and lost half of them.
Won: Tennessee by 7, Clemson by 10
Lost: Western Mich by 3, Miami by 4

UNC has played 4 teams with winning records and won 3 of 4.
Won: UVA by 20, Miami by 3, WF by 3
Lost: ND by 10

Seems like UNC offensively resembles what Western Mich did. Bad OLs, gun slinging QBs and a D that doesn't get many stops and that recipe worked once. Howell is definitely better than Eleby. Amazing what Howell is doing now with running.

I don't know. Seems like UNC just played a better D 2 weeks ago at Notre Dame and just played a better O last week vs WF. They should be plenty ready for what Pitt has to offer.

Duke did lead 12-7 and 19-14 1st H before Pitt pulled away. Miami led 31-17 HT before Pitt made a game of it.

Pitt's history is full of games they weren't expected to lose.

Close series:

2019 Pitt (-4) 34-27 OT
2018 UNC (+3.5) 38-35
2017 UNC (+9) 34-31
2016 UNC (-7) 37-36
2015 UNC (-3) 26-19
2014 UNC (-2.5) 40-35
2013 UNC (pk) 34-27
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I agree. I think I will take UNC+6.5 with a little sprinkled on the ML as well. Pitt offensively has been good, but Defensively I think can be had. Heck Duke just wasn't able to keep up scoring with Pitt. I think UNC should do well provided they can protect Howell.
 
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booksbestfriend said:
@s--k , I don't know how much time you put into these threads weekly. But, I come away super impressed with the info you share. If I were ever asked who I'd like to watch cap over a 2-3 week span, I think I would choose you.
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Thank you. I spend way too much time watching, reading and thinking college football - I just want to totally immerse myself in it. I'm close to Cleveland and Northcoast Sports is there (Phil Steele's company), being some kind of data analyst would probably be my dream job August-December. When I say I spend way too much time, I mean WAY too much time. Everything else in my life goes on hold during college football season - which is good and bad.

I just love it all. I love the process as much as watching the actual games and actually winning. I appreciate the kind words, but I am not as disciplined or as good with my decisions as you might think. I know my strengths and weaknesses and I am who I am and the bottom line is for fun. I can lose a bet but still have fun with everything else that led up to that point. I used to bet to try and win money and I discovered lots of pitfalls as I'm sure we have all gone through that kind of stuff. Now I focus on the fun and what I enjoy and winning any money is a bonus. So I am not so comfortable telling people who I like to try and have them follow me, but I like to share information makes people more aware of teams or situations or whatever about an upcoming game.
 
This looks like a sparse and unattractive collection for me and what I like to try and do. Many games with short lines that I don't like to hone in on ML plays with.

Think I'll be looking into these:

Charlotte - Don't love that they could've or should've lost to Rice. Got Reynolds back at QB and Rice D isn't great, Reynolds had a nice game which was nice to see off his last performance (FAU). Charlotte did upset Duke week 1 and led at Illinois at halftime before losing by 10. This staff has been able to pull some upsets the last couple years vs similar group of 5 teams. Louisiana Tech is in free-fall. I was surprised they scored 38 on a used to be good UAB D (new QB Head for LT). UAB still outgained them by 130 yards. Only scored 20 and lost at ODU. No shame in losing to UTSA, still the ugly loss at UTEP is hard for anyone to forget when looking at LT. The last time this team covered or played a competitive game was October 2nd. Note, Charlotte HC Healy has never won straight up as an away dog.

Colorado - The last 6+ quarters of football this CU team has scored 56 points after only scoring 37 vs all FBS teams this season not named Arizona. Wondering if Buffs have figured some things out on that side of the ball? Still hard to trust them though. UCLA has lost 3x as favorites this year. Best wins for UCLA in the PAC12? Beating 4-5 Washington by 7 and beating 3-6 Stanford by 11? Bruin D has given up over 6 yards per play six times this season. They even had a hard time pulling away from Arizona. Guess I don't love CU to actually win, but looks like a lot of points for a UCLA team that doesn't win many games or win the ones they do by big margins. Want LB Nate Landman to play (missed last 2). DL Mustafa Johnson's role and impact can only get bigger at this point in the season. CU has had losing record the last 4 seasons but has beat UCLA twice and one of the two they lost was just a 4 pt game (UCLA home won by 17 2018).

Florida International - Not a good team, but how much worse are they, DD dog? MTSU is on their 4th QB from the start of this season, starting Tr Fr Vattiato last week. How'd he do? 5 INTs. And he isn't the run threat that MTSU has typically had driving the O. Go back 2 weeks ago and MTSU beat Southern Miss 35-10, but they only outgained them 287-234, in that game MTSU got a punt ret TD, fumble ret TD and an INT ret TD! The last 4 games MTSU O is only averaging 344 ypg and that includes a 473 game at UConn. FIU is worse but the +320 odds vs an MTSU team that also isn't that good seems like a risk worth taking. MTSU D has been solid vs bad teams, and FIU is bad. However, FIU has occasionally had some moments of offense and plays at their skill positions that MTSU's other recent opponents USM and UConn have not. For some reason the games played at FIU have been close and the games played in Murfeesboro have been blowout wins for MTSU more often than not (avg margin 27 pts the last 4 games there). FIU not immune from getting blown out any game this year.

Georgia State - Playing good football. Have won 3 of last 4 straight up and covered 4 straight (2 as DD fav, one short fav and one as DD dog). Were in position to win at ULL 10 days ago. Coastal is only 1-2 ATS since their bye week. Coastal will be on experienced back up QB Carpenter again, who isn't a bad fill-in, but is not the stir the drink kind of guy McCall is. In the first game without McCall, Coastal only beat Georgia Southern 28-8 in a game that saw a blk'd punt return for TD. Two weeks ago, Coastal saw a Troy team challenge them for 4 quarters. Last year Coastal blew their doors off 51-0! I think Georgia State will show up with something to prove this year.

Rutgers - Looking to win 2 of final 3 games to gain bowl eligibility and one has to continue to wonder how much fight Indiana has left. Indiana's game vs Maryland does give some pause here as their O with McCully at QB for once looked decent again, but the D was out to lunch. Rutgers is pretty up and down, we know they don't typically compete vs the top teams or play great at home. Won at Illinois 2 weeks ago, but lost at Northwestern before that. I still remember last year where Rutgers pulled 3 upsets on the road and while we know they lost at NW, otherwise they show well away from home going 3-1 ATS so far.

Tennessee - Long shot of the week. Georgia gets to face it's first team with a consistent O that can both run and pass. Arkansas and Auburn are pretty good Os and Georgia did well vs them. Vols were in the game 3+ quarters vs Bama and until the end vs Ole Miss. Vols have come a long way since last time I ML'd them against Florida, which they were in that game for a bit too, but weren't ready, weren't where they are now. The game after allowing LSU 49 points, Florida's D held Georgia to just 3 points for 28 minutes of the 1st H before that game with off the rails like few games I've ever seen. Crowd should be nuts like they were vs OM (before the shit show) giving UT a pretty good HF advantage, they'll need every little thing they can get to compete here.

Troy - Another Sun Belt team dogged who is playing some good football facing off vs the top tier. Troy has won 3 of 4 straight up with the only loss a 7 pt defeat at Coastal where Troy played and showed well for themselves. Troy has league's best total D and run D and is top 3 in scoring D. ULL has the top scoring D. Think this game can resemble ULL's last game vs Georgia State. ULL isn't overly impressive outside of the App State win. They beat Ga St by 4, beat Ark St by 1, beat SBama by 2, beat Ga So by 8, beat Nichols by 1. Should be good competitive game, both Ds good, Troy's O is worse so a little concern there.

Washington State - What a great season Wazzou is having. They can actually win the PAC12 North (Ducks 5-1, W St 4-2). They come in here covering their last 6 in a row and pulled uspet wins 4 times in that run. Solid team that can both run and pass in a more workman like way that typcial flashy/gimmicky W St Os of the past. de Laura still leads a very competent passing game though. The Coug D plays some bend-don't-break giving up yards but coming up with turnovers (#1 PAC 20 gained) and stiffening in RZ (54% RZ TD, 2nd best PAC). Oregon QB Brown has had one good game in PAC play this year vs CU. Take out that game and he has just a 5-4 TD-INT ratio in the other 5 league games. While he isn't bad and does and can make timely plays, he also is a limiting factor within the Duck O. Oregon still more often than not resembles last year's average team than a potential playoff caliber team this year. Wazzou's roster has future NFL players sprinkled throughout and will come in with confidence, they won 3 straight in the series 2016-2018 and last time in Eugene 2019 they lost by just 2. Oregon won by 14 last year.
 
s--k said:
This looks like a sparse and unattractive collection for me and what I like to try and do. Many games with short lines that I don't like to hone in on ML plays with.

Think I'll be looking into these:

Charlotte - Don't love that they could've or should've lost to Rice. Got Reynolds back at QB and Rice D isn't great, Reynolds had a nice game which was nice to see off his last performance (FAU). Charlotte did upset Duke week 1 and led at Illinois at halftime before losing by 10. This staff has been able to pull some upsets the last couple years vs similar group of 5 teams. Louisiana Tech is in free-fall. I was surprised they scored 38 on a used to be good UAB D (new QB Head for LT). UAB still outgained them by 130 yards. Only scored 20 and lost at ODU. No shame in losing to UTSA, still the ugly loss at UTEP is hard for anyone to forget when looking at LT. The last time this team covered or played a competitive game was October 2nd. Note, Charlotte HC Healy has never won straight up as an away dog.

Colorado - The last 6+ quarters of football this CU team has scored 56 points after only scoring 37 vs all FBS teams this season not named Arizona. Wondering if Buffs have figured some things out on that side of the ball? Still hard to trust them though. UCLA has lost 3x as favorites this year. Best wins for UCLA in the PAC12? Beating 4-5 Washington by 7 and beating 3-6 Stanford by 11? Bruin D has given up over 6 yards per play six times this season. They even had a hard time pulling away from Arizona. Guess I don't love CU to actually win, but looks like a lot of points for a UCLA team that doesn't win many games or win the ones they do by big margins. Want LB Nate Landman to play (missed last 2). DL Mustafa Johnson's role and impact can only get bigger at this point in the season. CU has had losing record the last 4 seasons but has beat UCLA twice and one of the two they lost was just a 4 pt game (UCLA home won by 17 2018).

Florida International - Not a good team, but how much worse are they, DD dog? MTSU is on their 4th QB from the start of this season, starting Tr Fr Vattiato last week. How'd he do? 5 INTs. And he isn't the run threat that MTSU has typically had driving the O. Go back 2 weeks ago and MTSU beat Southern Miss 35-10, but they only outgained them 287-234, in that game MTSU got a punt ret TD, fumble ret TD and an INT ret TD! The last 4 games MTSU O is only averaging 344 ypg and that includes a 473 game at UConn. FIU is worse but the +320 odds vs an MTSU team that also isn't that good seems like a risk worth taking. MTSU D has been solid vs bad teams, and FIU is bad. However, FIU has occasionally had some moments of offense and plays at their skill positions that MTSU's other recent opponents USM and UConn have not. For some reason the games played at FIU have been close and the games played in Murfeesboro have been blowout wins for MTSU more often than not (avg margin 27 pts the last 4 games there). FIU not immune from getting blown out any game this year.

Georgia State - Playing good football. Have won 3 of last 4 straight up and covered 4 straight (2 as DD fav, one short fav and one as DD dog). Were in position to win at ULL 10 days ago. Coastal is only 1-2 ATS since their bye week. Coastal will be on experienced back up QB Carpenter again, who isn't a bad fill-in, but is not the stir the drink kind of guy McCall is. In the first game without McCall, Coastal only beat Georgia Southern 28-8 in a game that saw a blk'd punt return for TD. Two weeks ago, Coastal saw a Troy team challenge them for 4 quarters. Last year Coastal blew their doors off 51-0! I think Georgia State will show up with something to prove this year.

Rutgers - Looking to win 2 of final 3 games to gain bowl eligibility and one has to continue to wonder how much fight Indiana has left. Indiana's game vs Maryland does give some pause here as their O with McCully at QB for once looked decent again, but the D was out to lunch. Rutgers is pretty up and down, we know they don't typically compete vs the top teams or play great at home. Won at Illinois 2 weeks ago, but lost at Northwestern before that. I still remember last year where Rutgers pulled 3 upsets on the road and while we know they lost at NW, otherwise they show well away from home going 3-1 ATS so far.

Tennessee - Long shot of the week. Georgia gets to face it's first team with a consistent O that can both run and pass. Arkansas and Auburn are pretty good Os and Georgia did well vs them. Vols were in the game 3+ quarters vs Bama and until the end vs Ole Miss. Vols have come a long way since last time I ML'd them against Florida, which they were in that game for a bit too, but weren't ready, weren't where they are now. The game after allowing LSU 49 points, Florida's D held Georgia to just 3 points for 28 minutes of the 1st H before that game with off the rails like few games I've ever seen. Crowd should be nuts like they were vs OM (before the shit show) giving UT a pretty good HF advantage, they'll need every little thing they can get to compete here.

Troy - Another Sun Belt team dogged who is playing some good football facing off vs the top tier. Troy has won 3 of 4 straight up with the only loss a 7 pt defeat at Coastal where Troy played and showed well for themselves. Troy has league's best total D and run D and is top 3 in scoring D. ULL has the top scoring D. Think this game can resemble ULL's last game vs Georgia State. ULL isn't overly impressive outside of the App State win. They beat Ga St by 4, beat Ark St by 1, beat SBama by 2, beat Ga So by 8, beat Nichols by 1. Should be good competitive game, both Ds good, Troy's O is worse so a little concern there.

Washington State - What a great season Wazzou is having. They can actually win the PAC12 North (Ducks 5-1, W St 4-2). They come in here covering their last 6 in a row and pulled uspet wins 4 times in that run. Solid team that can both run and pass in a more workman like way that typcial flashy/gimmicky W St Os of the past. de Laura still leads a very competent passing game though. The Coug D plays some bend-don't-break giving up yards but coming up with turnovers (#1 PAC 20 gained) and stiffening in RZ (54% RZ TD, 2nd best PAC). Oregon QB Brown has had one good game in PAC play this year vs CU. Take out that game and he has just a 5-4 TD-INT ratio in the other 5 league games. While he isn't bad and does and can make timely plays, he also is a limiting factor within the Duck O. Oregon still more often than not resembles last year's average team than a potential playoff caliber team this year. Wazzou's roster has future NFL players sprinkled throughout and will come in with confidence, they won 3 straight in the series 2016-2018 and last time in Eugene 2019 they lost by just 2. Oregon won by 14 last year.
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Great post I like the FIU, Tenn, Jawja St., and Wazzou plays!
 
If I was making the candidate list like last week not many of those would be "good". FIU would be bad candidate just based on results. I'm not ruling it out though.

You like Troy but not Ga St? Care to elaborate?
 
lean both troy and wazzu.

i like some shorter dogs this week. love BC and cant believe im saying this but starting to take a real liking to lsu, gotta be nuts to get involved in their games cause who knows what kind of effort we will get? im starting to think they gonna play their asses off for coach O his last few games and send him out right. IF we get the same effort as last week it crazy good value getting plus money at the swamp at night vs pretty much anyone, dont think a solid but not spectacular hogs team has any business laying in this spot, but it all comes down to lsu want to, they have it we getting the better team at plus money, they go back to playing indifferent and hogs will embarrass them at home, i cant see them wanting that!!
 
wvu looks like a pretty strong dog to me. i think their run defense is strong enough to somewhat contain Vaughn (who a freaking beast), you slow him down you have a good chance to beat k-st. maybe more importantly is k-st pass defense is not good, they so bad i think this a week we can trust Doege to have a good game this week. I think this is def a one possession game so wvu should certainly have a pretty good chance to pull the outright.
 
2daBank said:
wvu looks like a pretty strong dog to me. i think their run defense is strong enough to somewhat contain Vaughn (who a freaking beast), you slow him down you have a good chance to beat k-st. maybe more importantly is k-st pass defense is not good, they so bad i think this a week we can trust Doege to have a good game this week. I think this is def a one possession game so wvu should certainly have a pretty good chance to pull the outright.
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I agree that WVU can win. But for some reason the ML doesn't interest me, but the points do. I was trying to find favorites that were weak and didn't know that K St was especially weak rather than limited. Maybe you have identified the K St pass D as bad, I didn't really know.

2daBank said:
uab worth a look
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This is not only Marshall's "75" game, but it is also a revenge spot for Marshall's home loss for CUSA Championship last year. UAB doesn't seem as good this season?
 
s--k said:
I agree that WVU can win. But for some reason the ML doesn't interest me, but the points do. I was trying to find favorites that were weak and didn't know that K St was especially weak rather than limited. Maybe you have identified the K St pass D as bad, I didn't really know.



This is not only Marshall's "75" game, but it is also a revenge spot for Marshall's home loss for CUSA Championship last year. UAB doesn't seem as good this season?
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oh crap, the revenge angle from conf champ dont mean much to me but i prob dont want to get in way of the 75 game. good looking out, hard to keep track of all these different things schools have, im assuming 75 as in that was the year the marshall football team died in plane wreck?
 
2daBank said:
oh crap, the revenge angle from conf champ dont mean much to me but i prob dont want to get in way of the 75 game. good looking out, hard to keep track of all these different things schools have, im assuming 75 as in that was the year the marshall football team died in plane wreck?
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nevermind, 75 ppl died, it was actually in 1970.
 
s--k said:
If I was making the candidate list like last week not many of those would be "good". FIU would be bad candidate just based on results. I'm not ruling it out though.

You like Troy but not Ga St? Care to elaborate?
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Ga. St. lost 51-0 last year. I just remember from my SDQL days I used to run code to see how teams fared in re-matches after losing by such a spread the year before....and the results were never pretty...Panthers have next to nill chance today.
 
I've toyed with the idea of my Cats dropping this game at Vandy...Dores are coming off a bye week and did play Mizzou tough last game. In 2 of 3 road games, my Cats have fumbled the ball 5 times and lost 3 of them...Levis also threw an INT. The thing is I took a shot with Vandy 1st half vs. Missou (terrible beat btw) because Tigers have not played defense all year. At least my Cats have had some good defensive performances this year and rusing defense is what we do best when we're on...Dores were running the option vs. Mizzou when I was watching that game so I think I'll pass on a play against my Cats because I think we matchup well today.

Thanks for nuthin' I know..;)..you're welcome!
 
Stanford is 10-0 in the last 10 meetings with the Beavs....I understand this year's game looks like best chance Oregon State has at snapping that streak....but I'm a Ky football fan and I know all too well about losing streaks to fellow conference rivals. At +380, I'm gonna play the Trees today just because.

:watchingsports:
 
Here's me latest list of possibles I like for today. I got a late start this week and need to go thru these again to figure out my final plays.

ECU
Baylor
USA 1st Half
Troy
Zona 1st Half
Charlotte
Purdue 1st Qtr
Tenn 1st Qtr
Wazzou 1st Qtr & Half
Stanford

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Ga. St. lost 51-0 last year. I just remember from my SDQL days I used to run code to see how teams fared in re-matches after losing by such a spread the year before....and the results were never pretty...Panthers have next to nill chance today.
Click to expand...

We all have our proverbial cups of tea. That game has to be a fluke. Coastal's largest margin of victory in any other game was 35 (vs Texas St who was blown out a few times). Georgia State didn't lose any other game last year by more than 7 points. In their previous 3 meetings the avg margin of victory regardless of winner was 6.33. The average point spread was 2.8. Last year's line was just 3.5. Think that was one of those 'stars align' type games. Today has a better chance of being competitive than it does another blowout.
 
JROCK1966 said:
I've toyed with the idea of my Cats dropping this game at Vandy...Dores are coming off a bye week and did play Mizzou tough last game. In 2 of 3 road games, my Cats have fumbled the ball 5 times and lost 3 of them...Levis also threw an INT. The thing is I took a shot with Vandy 1st half vs. Missou (terrible beat btw) because Tigers have not played defense all year. At least my Cats have had some good defensive performances this year and rusing defense is what we do best when we're on...Dores were running the option vs. Mizzou when I was watching that game so I think I'll pass on a play against my Cats because I think we matchup well today.

Thanks for nuthin' I know..;)..you're welcome!
Click to expand...
Didn't Stoops call out his D after the last game. I would imagine they come out on fire. Besides, they need this for pecking order in the bowl selection.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Didn't Stoops call out his D after the last game. I would imagine they come out on fire. Besides, they need this for pecking order in the bowl selection.
Click to expand...
Yep and this was not the first time he called out his team. Love what Stoops has done with this program and they'll build a statue of him outside of Kroger Field before it's all said and done....however, he is a "player's coach." To me this means his player's play hard when they feel like it....seen it way too many times during his tenure. My Cat's won't be fired up to play another game until we play the Tards and then a bowl game. We escape Nashville tonight just barely....(i.e. don't be surprised if this game is much closer than expected.)
 
Last edited:
s--k said:
We all have our proverbial cups of tea. That game has to be a fluke. Coastal's largest margin of victory in any other game was 35 (vs Texas St who was blown out a few times). Georgia State didn't lose any other game last year by more than 7 points. In their previous 3 meetings the avg margin of victory regardless of winner was 6.33. The average point spread was 2.8. Last year's line was just 3.5. Think that was one of those 'stars align' type games. Today has a better chance of being competitive than it does another blowout.
Click to expand...
Yep! Yep! BOL on your play if you play 'em! I'll pass.

:shake:
 
1st Qtr lines I wanted aren't offered yet...gonna go ride my bike for some exercise and hopefully have some plays posted before noon....see y'all later!

:tiphat:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Yep and this was not the first time he called out his team. Love what Stoops has done with this program and they'll build a statue of him outside of Kroger Field before it's all said and done....however, he is a "player's coach." To me this means his player's play hard when they feel like it....seen it way too many times during his tenure. My Cat's won't be fired up to play another game until we play the Tards and then a bowl game. We escape Nashville tonight just barely....(i.e. don't be surprised if this game is much closer than expected.)
Click to expand...
Has it got that bad??
 
No Purdue 1st Qtr offered....:arguing2:

So what the hell I'll just put the rest together in a couple...3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs:

#1: Risking $42 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $17,637.79

parlay-big.jpg

#2: Risking $42 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $49,931.96 :oops:

parlay-big2.jpg

Damn! I'm gambling today boys!!

BOLTA!!
 
Kickoffs really creeped up on me:

WVU 50 to win 92
Rutgers 50 to win 105 (actually posting after they are already up)
Yale 50 to win 132
Ga State 50 to win 212
Tennessee 10 to win 90
Charlotte 50 to win 110
FIU 20 to win 64
 
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