ML Bowl Dogs

Clemson
SD St
La Lafayette - though HFA mitigated a little with S Miss being so close too
WVU
Arkansas
FSU
Kentucky
Vandy
Louisville
Iowa
maybe AU

I think the bottom half of the SEC will do well in the bowls, the top half will struggle IMO
 
Finding teams who lack motivation will be a huge aspect. Right off the top I have to question what Houstons motivation is. Last season Houston went into the Peach Bowl with huge motivation vs FSU not only because it was FSU but because Houston suffered a BRUTAL bowl loss the year before to Pittsburgh. I believe it was 3 TDs in the last 6 minutes? I'll have to look it up. This year, Houston plays in a much lesser bowl vs a well coached SDST team. SDST has played in the Aloha Bowl, a win vs Cinn and Poinsettia Bowl, an upset loss vs Navy. Houston no longer has their HC obviously so does the interim coach bring motivation? Houston only -3 in Vegas...Was hoping for 7 or more because -3 could easily have Houstons talent winning out.
 
Ah yes!

On the motivation angle, it is just so hard. I mean I myself have and likely will back or fade a team based on what my perception is of a team's motivation, but it can be so tricky. There have been teams that we thought could lay an egg and they have. There have been teams that we thought could lay an egg and they've blown the other team's doors off.

I think a safer thing to do might be to find teams that had some warning flags throughout the season and given us reason to believe there is some suspect motivation as an underlying, continuing problem with the program.

It is easy to piece it together after the fact and say 'well yeah, they didn't want to be there vs that team', much harder to predict beforehand.

If one is to use that angle, may try and search for a team with questionable motivation vs a team that should be highly motivated. Fading Wisconsin and playing on Western Michigan could be one. Cotton Bowl is still nice, but not a Big Ten Championship or Rose Bowl. Wisconsin will likely be "up", but playing a MAC team may be hard for them to fully rise to the occasion.

I haven't looked at many bowl lines or odds yet. I will look back historically and see what kinds of upsets the years prior have given us so we can have a good expectation for what may happen this year. My memory tells me there are LOTS of upsets in bowls.

By the way, didn't Houston come back on Pitt in that game, not the other way around? Pretty sure Pitt was the one that blew the big lead.
 
The year I tried to bet based on perceived motivation, I got crushed. It's an angle, but one I think is too hard to gauge. And sometimes the unmotivated team is still way more talented and wins based on that
 
gps_3 said:
The year I tried to bet based on perceived motivation, I got crushed. It's an angle, but one I think is too hard to gauge. And sometimes the unmotivated team is still way more talented and wins based on that
Click to expand...

Agreed on this. I feel like for whatever reason teams have mentally gotten their shit together the last few years and there have been far less "no-shows" than in the past.

It's still a factor to consider but not one that I'm anchored to.
 
Last edited:
Some things I've carried with me from previous bowls.
1) point spreads rarely matter - just pick the straight up winner
2) a rematch from the current season, or a rematch from a prior year bowl game sees the loser of the first game prevail in the current bowl game`

Not counting '14 and '15 National Championship game...

Scheduled bowl games:

2015:
25-15 fav-dog ATS...12 outright upset wins. 38% dogs ATS, 30% of games were upsets. Straight up winner covers 92.5% of time.

2014:
16-22 fav-dog ATS...18 outright upset wins. 58% dogs ATS, 47% of games were upsets. Straight up winner covers 89.5% of time.

2013:
17-16-1 fav-dog ATS...13 outright upset wins. 47% dogs, 38% of the games were upsets. Straight up winner covers 88% of time.

2012:
16-16-1 fav-dog ATS...13 outright upset wins. 48% dogs, 39% of the games were upsets. (1 game pick'em not counted for %). Straight up winner covers 88% of time.

2011:
18-14-1 fav-dog ATS...9 outright upset wins...42% dogs, 27% of the games were upsets. (1 game pick'em not counted for %). Straight up winner covers 82% of time.

ATS results for underdogs may under perform the regular season, but I believe that the high percentage of upsets would exceed the regular season. And over the last 5 years, 88% of the time point spread doesn't matter as the winner of the game covers the spread 88% of the time. Would be interesting to see these figures compared to regular season.

Rematches:
I know related to Nebraska, they lost to Georgia in the 2012 Citrus Bowl, but they faced Georgia again in the 2013 Tax Slayer Bowl and Huskers beat Dawgs as 8.5 pt dog second time around. In 2010 Nebraska beat Washington in the regular season and was rematched with them in the Holiday Bowl at season's end. Not only that, but Nebraska had just played and won the Holiday Bowl in 2009. Washington won that 2010 rematch bowl as a 2 TD underdog.

I'll have to look to see if a team is returning to the same bowl, that is sometimes a play against if they won the previous year and are less excited to be returning to the same surroundings a second year in a row.

The only rematch from this season is Army - N Tex, but the situation isn't ideal as Army was favored in the reg season and are again favored in the bowl.
 
Scrute said:
This bowl season has the best matchups I can remember in a long time
Click to expand...

Yeah, makes for some hard picks in games.

Tomorrow we have:

NC Central +516 vs Grambling

UTSA +240 vs New Mexico

SD St +183 vs Houston

Ark St +240 vs UCF

ULL +205 vs Smiss

Youngstown St +240 at Eastern Washington

I'm likely going to ease into this bowl season. Don't have strong feelings on any of those games tomorrow. Will enjoy watching them and will find something to put a little $ on, but not sure how strong of a case I would make for a ML play other than just doing it for the sake of doing it.

Any thoughts?
 
YSU pulled the improbable upset, but no substantial bowl upsets yet. About a TD and higher is what I consider kind of substantial.

fav 3-0 ATS, dog 3-0 ATS, dog 2 SU upset wins (SD St +175 and Ark St +155 at close). Under 6-0

Memphis +210 anyone? I think it has a decent chance.
 
Not sure about Wyo. BYU will have quite an advantage on both LOS. I know Hill won't be playing but Mangum will come in and throw jump balls to his taller WR's. I'd be shocked in BYU didn't control this game.
 
Two Utes said:
Not sure about Wyo. BYU will have quite an advantage on both LOS. I know Hill won't be playing but Mangum will come in and throw jump balls to his taller WR's. I'd be shocked in BYU didn't control this game.
Click to expand...

Agree that BYU should be favored on perceived strength.

But you just have to love what Wyoming has done in the underdog role this year. 7 times they've been dogged as 6 pts or higher and they have delivered 5 outright upsets in that role while going 6-1 ATS. The two games they lost was at Nebraska (-5 in turnovers, were actually covering that game still in the 2nd half before a barage of turnovers) and the MWC Title game vs SD St where they lost by 3 after beating Aztecs the first time around.

Offensively, I think there is alot to like about Wyoming. They keep showing us on a weekly basis. Not always a great 4 quarters, but they typically do enough in a game to stay in it and often win it vs teams that many thought were better than them.

The D is a bit of a concern. The run D especially and they probably haven't faced a team with the passing potential of BYU since the Boise game. Which Boise was successful passing on them, but one thing that WYO has been great at this year is getting turnovers. #2 MWC turnovers gained with 25 (tied 12th nationally).

QB Allen is a gun slinger and can be high risk high reward, so the possibility of WYO giving turnovers back exists.

I can see a pretty wild competitive and close game.

Enjoyed watching Hill this year ,and sucks that he got hurt again. Wondering if Mangum is actually a better fit for what Detmer wants to do with the O?
 
I don't necessarily think they are better with Mangum. His WR's bailed him out of many stupid decisions last year and I don't think their receiving corps is as good this year as they were last year. BYU should be able to run on Wyo no matter who is under center.
 
I expect Jamaal Williams to have a field day, only way I see WYO keeping this competitive is a couple very early turnovers and getting the lead. BYU should dominate both lines of scrimmage and if the Cowboys play typical aggressive defense, we should see chunks of yardage from the running game of the Cougars. BYU lost four games this year by a total of 8 points, to teams much better than Wyoming imo (although obviously Boise did lose at Wyoming). Should be massive crowd advantage for the Mormons and off of three straight bowl losses, I expect them to get healthy here and score at will.
 
That is fine if we don't have agreement on the Wyoming game.

But are you guys forecasting any upset plays? Typically we get 3-6 TD-DD dogs winning straight up. Trying to find those games is what this thread is about.

Recent history:
2015: Akron +240, Houston +250, TCU +250
2014: Clem +210, ND +305, Wis +194, Oh St +260, Hou +195, Ok St +220
2013: Pitt +210, Tex Tech +565, Neb +290, Mich St +255, UCF +510, Okla +565
2012: SMU +430, Clem +210, Ohio +220, GT +240, Clem +6, LV +450
 
It's all good, everyone is free to voice their opinion. I was just trying to get some upset leans out of anyone else.

I played Memphis .5 to win 105. Always play the spread as well naturally, unfortunately my number is 6.5 on that. Spread play is always enough to clear atleast a unit if the ML loses and they cover ATS.

Memphis and WKU seem pretty even. No reason I can find to not expect a competitive game in this one.

Edit, let the text sit on my phone without sending hoping it would hit 7 before kick. It did. So +7 and .5 to win 116 now. Hope the spread doesn't matter though. Go Tigers!!
 
Fuck Memphis. I don't mind losing bets so much, but I hate losing the ATS side AND the ML play on the same game! Small concellation the .5u over play washes the .5u ML play, but bigger ATS loss sends me to bed angry!
 
Powder River Let er Buck!!

WYO 1u to win 330. Loading up on +10 spread. Think this may be the best game so far this bowl season.

These kids don't know it, but Wyoming - BYU used to be a big rivalry when they were WAC and later MWC members. Love the matchup! Hope I love the result of the game!
 
Yeah I like it too s--k

I'm on it in a few ways with a couple of Wyoming TT, some ML and Kurtz Receiving prop over. My paranoia is that Wyoming could somehow lose something like 45-31 and get fucked on the spread. I don't think Wyoming has much chance to cover an under which is odd given that they're a double digit dog
 
Washington
wake (no one selling their plays)
indiana (too obvious maybe?)
kstate?
arkansas
sbama?
 
Agree with value on bottom 5

Can't even fathom how Washington manages to beat Alabama unless CP is that much better of a coach than Saban and I don't think that's the case
 
Scrute said:
Agree with value on bottom 5

Can't even fathom how Washington manages to beat Alabama unless CP is that much better of a coach than Saban and I don't think that's the case
Click to expand...

Dominate the line of scrimmage. Those little bama guys won't know what hit them
 
clowncar said:
Dominate the line of scrimmage. Those little bama guys won't know what hit them
Click to expand...

7 weeks in I actually thought it could happen. I do not now. Hate to say it, but this may be a top 5 all time CFB team...and I love Browning, love the line, love the skill players. But they need to stretch the defense imo and Browning can't do that. Now, the great equalizer is...does Peterson exploit that and do some quick outs to start the game with two very, very good WRs...be interesting.
 
Solid team. Just think they can compete with anyone and the over the top going crazy for Alabama on espn is a huge warning sign if you like Alabama
 
Going to take the +15 with Miami Ohio and small ML
Miami Ohio finished the season on winning streak, think they will play hard, hopefully some turnovers can go their way too
 
CHSGTMD said:
Going to take the +15 with Miami Ohio and small ML
Miami Ohio finished the season on winning streak, think they will play hard, hopefully some turnovers can go their way too
Click to expand...

Close call! I was surprised by that game.

5 upset wins of TD or greater, including 2 DD, 1 2 TD+ upset the last week.

I only ML'd $10 to win $50 on Idaho, so I have not capitalized on these upsets. Having a good bowl ATS season when betting, dogs, but awful when betting favorites. ATS 0-5 on favs since Friday, but 6-1 on dogs since Thursday. For the bowl season I'm 1-2 on ML, but the Idaho game only won me 50 so down $ on those trys.

It is reminding me that picking upsets in bowl season is really hard. They happen, but hard to see coming as something weird is usually going on that leads to the upset. I know D8 was all over WF. I haven't spent much time in other threads to know if anyone is calling out upsets in their picks. I just returned home from a family Christmas vacation.

So what is on the horizon that we like?

Indiana have a chance? South Carolina? I think I like Arkansas with a chance. I will play W Mich for sure.
 
I like FSU...but getting nervous on it. OL problems all season. Now is there some disinterest and lack of intensity in practice I am hearing?
 
Pent-up desire for ML action on my end! SC 50 for 165 and Ark 50 for 120.

Little worried about Flowers and Mack doing damage, but also remember USF games vs UConn (noncover) and Temple (SU loss) proving they aren't world beaters. USF D shouldn't scary me too much I don't think.
 
s--k said:
Pent-up desire for ML action on my end! SC 50 for 165 and Ark 50 for 120.
Click to expand...

Well that was interesting. SC went from having no chance at winning, down 18 2nd half, to going to OT. Arkansas went from 24-0 HT lead to not even covering. I don't think I have ever had two bets go quite like that in a long time, never in the same day for sure. Losing Arkansas must be payback for winning TCU vs Oregon last year. Win some lose some...
 
Lots and lots of games starting out one way and finishing another way this year. Seems like so many do not finish the way they start. Ark and SC games looked like blowouts and both flipped. aTm looked strong early then K ST got their end going and was better team. WVU looked very good early while Miami looked lost.. Army was clearly the better team early, but didn't capitalize fully and NT hung around. MTSU vs Haw looked like a blowout first few possessions. LT jumped early on Navy, looked like it may be ugly early. BYU was on their way to blowing out WYO. SD ST looked shaky early.

So many games have gone from appearing to go one way to go the exact opposite way.
 
Through 12/29 bowls

7-20 fav-dog ATS - 11 straight up dog upsets. 74% dogs ATS. 41% of games were upsets. Straight up winner covers just 66% of time.

Compared to the last handful of years posted back on page 1, the % of upsets is about in line with normal (36% upsets last 5 years). But the ATS dog cover % and the lower % of straight up winner covering is much different than previous years so far. ATS dogs were coming in at 46% last 5 years while straight up winner the last 5 years was winning and covering 88% of the time.

So anyone like Florida State +230 today?

Nebraska +325 is tempting even without Armstrong given the kind of D Vols have field this year and the kind of games they have found themselves in.
 
50 to win 120 on FSU. Not going to be easy, not sure it is smart to take Francois and that OL vs Mich D. Believe Francois has potential to make plays though both running and passing, pass protection will be HUGE. Think I like the FSU D against Mich O to be ok. FSU a little more suspect in FG kicking with younger Aguayo. Mich FGs have been solid after earlier struggles. Don't like 3 of the last 4 talking heads on ESPN I've seen have picked FSU though...
 
ProV1Colt said:
This has been a crazy bowl year for sure
Click to expand...


Another crazy one yesterday in the context of games starting one way and then finishing opposite of how they began...South Alabama led 21-3 or 21-6, then lost 21-45!

No ML action for me today. Only won 2 out of 6 on those plays so far which is disappointing. May look towards W Mich and Iowa Monday.
 
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