Mizzou v. OU

Flip a coin?

OU is winning and covering. Mizzou isn't there enough to beat OU even on neutral field.
 
OU is the more solid team all around. OU takes it to them.
 
A lot of the nongambling pundits are asking "Why is the wrong team favored?" since Mizzou is rated BCS #1 and OU is rated BCS #9.

Well, the books didn't make an error, as usual.

If anything, it shows how fallable the BCS system is and how wrong the polls are.

I mean, Georgia #4 in the country when they can't win their division let alone their conference? Bad polling system. And UGA can play for the MNC if OU and Pitt both win? C'mon!

No, the real question is: "Why is the wrong team rated higher than the other?"

OU is a better team, has already proven they can beat Mizzou and I expect them to do the same thing.
 
I honestly think Chase Daniel doesn't go 40-47 with 4 td's an 0 picks..but who the fuck knows..I think Oklahoma will get more pressure on the qb than Kansas did..will be a great game, a shootout hopefully.
 
Chase went 37-47 for 1 TD and 2 Ints and Maclin threw another INT.

OU won 41-31, but Mizzou got a late junk TD.

Even if Mizzou protects the ball better (4 TOs to OU's 2), I still think that OU wins by at least 7 taking out the HFA from the last game.
 
I was exaggerating his superman performance last week RJ.

u know where he can run around for 5 minutes, then throw a TD? Oklahoma doesnt let that happen imo.
 
BUT, that being said, I can't bet against that offense...but my mind will probably change as the week goes on.
 
I got it, Hunt. Trying to make a point about what to expect.

I know you have the under, but for some reason I think that the game will only go over if OU (1) lets it or (2) does the majority of the scoring.
 
ynnhoj316 said:
RJ what does the UT recruiting front look like for this year
Click to expand...

Honestly, no idea. Horn is the best to talk to about that.

At the beginning of the season, Texas had the #1 class in the country due to Mack's early commitment program. Now, we're still top 10 (I think), but we have some work to do.

The good news is that our OL will be young and much improved next year. Colt comes back but needs to play better as a junior (typically not a problem) and we need to find a spot for Sherrod Harris and Chiles too. WRs will take a drop buy we look good there too.

We need to get better play out of our TEs, but I think that has more to do with play calling.

On the defensive side of the ball, the secondary might improve now that the seniors are gone and the young guys will need to improve. I'd like to see us recruit some corners taller than 6 foot. LBs will improve too now that Norton-Muck-Kindle are our starters.

DEs will be our strength on the DL while DT will be the question.
 
RJ Esq said:
A lot of the nongambling pundits are asking "Why is the wrong team favored?" since Mizzou is rated BCS #1 and OU is rated BCS #9.

Well, the books didn't make an error, as usual.

If anything, it shows how fallable the BCS system is and how wrong the polls are.

I mean, Georgia #4 in the country when they can't win their division let alone their conference? Bad polling system. And UGA can play for the MNC if OU and Pitt both win? C'mon!

No, the real question is: "Why is the wrong team rated higher than the other?"

OU is a better team, has already proven they can beat Mizzou and I expect them to do the same thing.
Click to expand...



totally agree about the current system being flawed. but w/out a playoff of 8 teams, or more...and true conf champs across the board...it'll always be flawed.

agree mostly regarding the line.
yes, the line is set for a reason. but also, anyone who does power rankings (or feebly attempts to, like myself) would have Oklahoma favored here...between 1 and 3 pts most likely (mine's one, btw).

didn't stop me from playing Mizzou though...
 
I think Daniel was shitting his pants a little that game in Norman. With that and the KU game under his belt I think he will outperform Bradford who is yet to play in a game w/ that kind of hype (and dont say OU/Texas this year b/c OU was a 14 pt fav).

If MU doesnt fumble that ball and have OU return in for 6, who knows how that game in Norman turns out. If I'm correct, MU had the lead in the 4th Q.
 
I'm going with Stoops and the small number. OU doesn't win with Bradford but they can lose because of him. All Bradford needs to do is play a manageable game and protect the ball. OU is still a running offense and relies on it's defense and ball control to win.

Short number under 3? Give me the fav.
 
my money is on OU -3 because they stomped the Ags and Mizzou really didnt. deep analysis huh?

:smiley_acac:
 
mizzou will win.

ou is much better at home than on the road, that's not speculation.

mizzou benefits from seeing them before, no austin english at the DE hurts ou.

and how do you know the books didn't make an error? they haven't played the game yet.

wait til ou gets down and they have to pass to win. they've looked great running over folks with a lead in hand. look back at the boise game is ou better now than last year?

mizzou by 14
 
booger said:
look back at the boise game is ou better now than last year?

mizzou by 14
Click to expand...

Ha.

Fiesta Bowl from last year shouldn't be relied upon. That game was all about motivation. Boise was motivated and OU wasn't.

Here, both teams should be motivated plenty. Also, it ain't a road game. It's neutral field.

14 points? Please check to see the last time that OU lost in a championship game or Bowl by at least that margin.

The team that beat them? The USC Trojans. The year? 2005 for the 2004 MNC championship (Orange Bowl game).

The only other time in recent memory that has happened was when a gritty Bill Snyder coached K State team did so in Kansas City.

Other than that, I would love to see Stoops' record in Big XII championship games (seriously, I would). My suspiscion is that he finds a way to win no matter what.
 
saying ou wasn't motivated to win the fiesta bowl is laughable

say they were exposed by a team that could run and pass, got behind and didn't have the playmaking ability at QB or talent in the secondary to win the game.

mizzou brings the same attributes to the big 12 championship, what has ou done on the road this year? lost at CU, played like crap at ISU, lost at tek? somewhere along the line after a season of games a pattern develops.

mizzou wins
 
booger said:
saying ou wasn't motivated to win the fiesta bowl is laughable

say they were exposed by a team that could run and pass, got behind and didn't have the playmaking ability at QB or talent in the secondary to win the game.

mizzou brings the same attributes to the big 12 championship, what has ou done on the road this year? lost at CU, played like crap at ISU, lost at tek? somewhere along the line after a season of games a pattern develops.

mizzou wins
Click to expand...

Take Mizzou then. I'll be on the other side.

We'll see who cashes.
 
the LSU ass raping of OU would fit the bill I would say...

that said, I think OU's Oline will wear down the Dline of Mizzou in the end...

Mizzou needs to be plus 2 in turnover margin to win the game IMO.
 
I am very surprised that most around here are all over OU. I think you are underestimating Chase Daniels. He is the difference and he should win the Heisman. I think OU is living on past reputation and it is very difficult to beat a team twice in 1 year isn't it? Also, won't this be a Missouri crowd (underdog plus anti-OU)?
 
JumpOnBoard said:
the LSU ass raping of OU would fit the bill I would say...

that said, I think OU's Oline will wear down the Dline of Mizzou in the end...

Mizzou needs to be plus 2 in turnover margin to win the game IMO.
Click to expand...

The LSU game was in 2004 as the end of the 2003 season and in a bowl game. For whatever reason, OU hasn't been that interesting in bowls.

OK, let's look at the OU in the Big XII game under Stoops (what I was thinking about at work but couldn't address due to time). I don't have the lines, but here it goes:

2007: OU vs. Mizzou
2006: OU 21, Nebraska 7
2004: OU 42, Colorado 3
2003: OU 7, Kansas State 35
2002: OU 29, Colorado 7
2000: OU 27, Kansas St 24

OK, so regardless of line, OU is 4-1 SU in the Big XII Championship game and has only won a game by 3 or less one time (2001--Stoops' second year).

2003 was an embarassment as OU was heavily favored in that game and Snyder embarassed him. So, in 2004, OU left nothing to chance and beat the hell out of Colorado (before Texas really beat the hell out of Colorado in 2005).

While we're on the subject, let's look at OU in bowls under Stoops:

2007: ???
2006: OU 42, Boise St 43 (finishes 11-3)
2005: OU 17, Oregon 14 (finishes 8-4)
2004: OU 19, USC 55 (finishes 12-1)
2003: OU 14, LSU 21 (finishes 12-2)
2002: OU 34, Wash St 14 (finishes 12-2)
2001: OU 10, Arkansas 3 (finishes 11-2)
2000: OU 13, FSU 2 (OU finishes 13-0 and MNC champ)
1999: OU 25, Ole Miss 27 (OU finishes 7-5, up from 5-6 the year before)

OU under Stoops si 4-4 SU in the bowls.

Gary Pinkel on the other hand took over Mizzou in 2001 after Larry Smith guided Mizzou to a 3-8 season in 2000. Pinkel finished 2001 4-7. 2002 was not much better, gaining only one win and finishing 5-7. 2003 was Pinkel's breakout year (3rd year under the helm, no surprise) and Mizzou finished 8-5. However, off Mizzou's weak 2003 schedule (first 4 games were pretty much gimmes), Pinkel was back to 5-6 in 2004. Pinkel got back on track in 2005 going 7-5, 8-5, and 11-1 in the next 3 seasons.

Since Mizzou has NEVER been the Big XII North champ, let's look at big wins (games they shouldn't have won) and big losses (games they should have won) for for Mizzou over the years and then we'll look at bowl records:

2001: Big Wins--Oklahoma State; Big Losses--Bowling Green
2002: Big Wins--Texas A&M; Big Losses--Bowling Green
2003: Big Wins--Nebraska, Texas Tech, Texas A&M; Big Losses--Kansas (if you want to see a weak front 4 schedule, look here)
2004: Big Wins--Colorado; Big Losses--Troy, Kansas
2005: Big Wins--Oklahoma St, Nebraska, South Carolina; Big Losses--Kansas, Kansas St, New Mexico
2006: Big Wins--Texas Tech; Big Losses--Texas A&M, Iowa St

2006 Bowl: Mizzou 38, Oregon St 39
2005: Mizzou 38, South Carolina 31
2003: Mizzou 14, Arkansas 27

The point is, Mizzou is in uncharted territory for them program-wise. Pinkel has done a marvelous job with them getting them to 11-1 this season and a shot at the national championship. But, IMO, they are playing way above their heads. Daniel is a great QB, for sure, and there is talent there. But they are still a good 3-5 years off before being able to compete with OU on a consistent basis even if recruiting stays as good as it is or improves.

Could Mizzou win this game? Sure. But this is a game of choosing lopsided coins and choosing the side that will come up the vast majority of the time. In this case, taking OU at -3 or less is a smart bet as they will cover 6 or 7 times out of 10.
 
I would add an awful lot of weight is being thrown on a win over a Kansas team that has two wins vs teams that are .500 or above and both are 6-5..and were in unchartered territory themselves.
 
Good point, Jump. The KU win is keeping the line artificially low.

Booger did make a good point, although he overstated it. OU has not done well on the road this year, losing at CU and Tech and having an underwhelming win at ISU. I don't count the win against Texas as a poor performance. OU got Texas' best overall performance on both sides of the ball in a rivalry game and won a game closer than the Vegas line set it (although many made money on the inflated line). But was the fact that this game was on the road the key factor or was it something else?

I suggest it was Bradford's poor play, or complete absence, in each of these games that was the key.

OU led most of the way through the 3rd quarter but folded in the 4th to CU. Bradford's line:

<table class="datasmall" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datahead"><td colspan="5">Passing</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> </td> <td>CP/ATT</td> <td>YDS</td> <td>TD</td> <td>INT</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> Sam Bradford </td> <td> 8/19</td> <td> 112</td> <td> 1</td> <td> 2</td></tr></tbody></table>
Now let's look at his line in the much closer than expected ISU win:

<table class="datasmall" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datahead"><td colspan="5">Passing</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> </td> <td>CP/ATT</td> <td>YDS</td> <td>TD</td> <td>INT</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> Sam Bradford </td> <td> 16/28</td> <td> 183</td> <td> 0</td> <td> 1</td></tr></tbody></table>
And then there was the Tech game where he was knocked out early in the 1st quarter and never returned:

<table class="datasmall" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datahead"><td colspan="5">Passing</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> </td> <td>CP/ATT</td> <td>YDS</td> <td>TD</td> <td>INT</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> Joey Halzle </td> <td> 21/41</td> <td> 291</td> <td> 2</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> Sam Bradford </td> <td> 2/3</td> <td> 11</td> <td> 0</td> <td> 0</td></tr></tbody></table>
Last, here's Bradford's line against Texas in another "poor" OU "road" performance:

<table class="datasmall" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datahead"><td colspan="5">Passing</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> </td> <td>CP/ATT</td> <td>YDS</td> <td>TD</td> <td>INT</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> Sam Bradford </td> <td> 21/32</td> <td> 244</td> <td> 3</td> <td> 0</td></tr></tbody></table>
This line is actually very typical of Bradford's good performances, most of which occurred at home.

Ignored in this discussion of home/road performance is OU's dominating performance over Tulsa early in the year.
 
Yanks texting me to tell me that the Sooners suck. Normally I would agree, but I want cash this week.
 
RJ Esq said:
It has come to my attention that Yanks does not like my posts.
Click to expand...


:36_11_6:

not true at all.
i was playing w/ you (via text) only cuz it seemed you were selling it too hard...almost to convince yourself in a way, or a jury of your peers.

it's ok...there's always time to hedge. :tiphat:



lastly, semi-related...i love how each & every pundit has the NC game projected as tOSU/WVU, already counting Mizzou out.
in this of all years, you'd think at least one or two of the pundits would be a bit more open-minded.
 
RJ Esq said:
The point is, Mizzou is in uncharted territory for them program-wise.
Click to expand...

You're going to hang your hat on OU beating a bunch of sorry ass teams from the north in the Big 12 Championship to illustrate Mizzou being in uncharted territory as a program? What was Boise last year?

The only decent teams they played were K-st whom they split with. Every other team from the north was dogshit.

Looking at this years contest and the two teams on the field.

Mizzou beat KU and the Illini on neutral fields this year. The latter contest being as much like a big 12 championship as the real deal. You can poo poo KU if you like, but they imo they are a very fine football team.

OU has had some nice wins beating Texas on a neutral field and Mizzou on their own yard and some puzzling performances on the road against Tek, CU and ISU. I can understand not being interested against ISU and losing focus against CU.

Letting Tek score 35 on my D would have me concerned, missing my best pass rusher and RB would have me concerned and seeing Temple in this game would also have me concerned. The big yards Baylor got, the ease with which ok st moved the ball, c'mon hanging on to the program has nothing to do with the task at hand. I'd as soon see we beat their ass by 10 once and will do it again on satuday.

OU is the name brand here witness the multiple big 12 titles, Mizzou the better team.

My money goes on the better team.

GL on your play
 
JumpOnBoard said:
I would add an awful lot of weight is being thrown on a win over a Kansas team that has two wins vs teams that are .500 or above and both are 6-5..and were in unchartered territory themselves.
Click to expand...


what wins is Ou throwing their weight on?

Texas that lost in college station where KU won?
Miami?
@Tulsa
CU where KU won?

this is good stuff, ole boog is kinda stepping out here.

GL fellas'an_horse'
 
My guess most would say a DD win over Missouri (you know, the team they are playing), that was 18 pt win until a last sec TD(where his knee was actually down at the 2, but I loved it cause I had Mizzou plus the pts).
 
Yanks26Sox7 said:
lastly, semi-related...i love how each & every pundit has the NC game projected as tOSU/WVU, already counting Mizzou out.
in this of all years, you'd think at least one or two of the pundits would be a bit more open-minded.
Click to expand...

CBS Sportsline is projecting Mizzou v. WVU in the national championship game.

But CBS Sports sucks...
 
I'll be on MIzzou... Too much offense. Okie won't be able to keep up IMO. Maclin, the tight ends, temple, this team is sick on offense.. If turnovers are equal, I don't think it will be close to be honest.... Just the way I see it:cheers:
 
Line should be oklahoma -3 imo. that makes this a game to steer clear of from a betting perspective. Should be an incredible game to watch. Also .... RJ you owe me a new shirt as seeing you with that avatar made me throw up all over my favorite shirt.
 
Yanks26Sox7 said:
u seen them out of Norman this year?

jsut being a bit sarcastic...but good luck. it is in mnay ways a "coin flip" game, as this thread title suggests.
Click to expand...

I must admit I have not seen much of OU away.

However, I'm still sticking with OU. It's not like I'm always on the right side, but IDK - I just feel like they will take care of biz. To be 100% completely honest, I want OU to lose. Just so my Trojans can get OSU instead of...Illinois or someone else. Just one of those games I've always wanted to see. And I'll be in Vegas for New Years/Rose Bowl....man, it would be lovely.
 
RJ Esq said:
I think that's what I said repeatedly.

Not gloating, and I appreciate you coming in here and owning up.

:cheers:
Click to expand...


you can just appreciate me coming in here and owning up.'an_horse'


the rest is fucking gloating, next time i'll just congrat the sooner backers
and not worry about tipping my cap.:cheers:
 
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