MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 20-14-3 (+10.00 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 12-9-1 (+8.30 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 8-5-2 (+1.70 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 3-0-1 (+15.00 Units)
I am coming off a so-so week but my PLAY OF THE WEEK was another winner and I haven't lost one of those this year. The lines are getting a lot sharper and finding big winners is getting more and more difficult. Let's do it big this week.
*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.
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Sunday, October 8
Carolina Panthers -8 (4 Units)
The Cleveland Browns are nothing like the New Orleans Saints and they are not about to come into Carolina and almost beat the Panthers much like the Saints did last week. The Browns are coming off a West Coast time win over the lowly Raiders and now have to hit the road back to the East Coast to play an early game against a Panthers team that has yet to find their identity. What I find funny about this series is that the Panthers have never lost a game against Cleveland and are the Browns are 0-2 lifetime in the regular season against the Panthers. The 24-21 come from behind win over the Raiders last week was Cleveland's first win of the year and although they did show some signs of improvement, I really don't think they stand on the same level as the Panthers. Cleveland opened the season with a home loss to the Saints, then they got blown out in Cincinnati and then the close home loss at home against the ex-Browns from Baltimore. It has not been a pleasant season for this team and I don't think things will change until they head home and play against the Broncos or Jets. On the questionable list this week is almost every important member of the Browns. They are badly banged up heading into this game. In their last three games, the Browns average 18.3 points per game but on only 290.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play. Carolina's defense is finally starting to get in a groove and even though they allow 19.3 points per game in their last three games, they are bound to improve with a week of practice at home. I see them improving on the 5.6 yards per play they have been giving up over the last three games. On the ground, RB Ruben Droughns has a very bad shoulder and even if he plays, the Browns average only 66.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on a pathetic 2.7 yards per carry. Carolina's defense has mastered shutting down the run and they allow only 3.3 yards per carry in their last three games on less than 100 yards rushing per game. In the air, QB Charlie Frye has done a good job as of late but will only have success if he can handle the incoming pressure. Frye could have a big game here if he wants because Carolina's defense has allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and they have not been playing the way they had in previous years. However, as I mentioned earlier, the Carolina defense has had all week to work in practice at home and we should see that make a huge difference in this game.
The Carolina Panthers are 2-2 on the year but a pathetic 0-4 ATS and have yet to let anyone cash in on them. What you have to understand about Carolina and they do this every year is that they start off the season on a very slow playing pace and once Game #5 comes around, they usually pick up the intensity, they play hard to beat at home and most important of all, we all realize that Jake Delhomme is an NFL Quarterback. Most people don't know who the hell he is after only four weeks of the season and how can you blame them? The Panthers haven't done shit to get recognize and they are coming off a near loss to the Saints last week. However, that game winning drive where Foster took that long rush to the house could be a huge confidence booster for the Panthers and their offense. The only reason the defense has struggled is because the offense is pulling off a bunch of three and outs and the Carolina defense usually go on the field already half dead from being on the field only a few minutes earlier. This is somewhat of a statement game for the Panthers here because they need to show the rest of the NFC that they are not pushovers like many experts have called them. In their last three games, the Panthers average 20.0 points per game and have done so on 315.0 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. Not too bad for the first month of the season but now it's time to turn things up a notch against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 23.3 points per game in their last three games on 353.7 total yards per game and 5.6 yards per play. That's not good considering who they have played against. On the ground, RB Deshaun Foster has led the Panthers to 125.0 rushing yards and 4.5 yards per carry over their last three games. Foster should have his second straight 100+ yard rushing game against a Browns defense that is allowing 146.7 rushing yards per game on a whopping 5.3 yards per carry over their last three games. In the air, QB Jake Delhomme is going to have a lot more options this week now that the running game is finally going to be effective against a weaker team. Delhomme should have his biggest game yet and although the Panthers average only 5.8 yards per pass attempt, they should raise that to about 7-8 in this game. The Browns defense have a decent pass rush but Delhomme has worked on his footwork and he won't be easy to take down. Carolina's big problem this year has been converting 3rd downs as they are converting only 25.0% of third down chances. However, Cleveland are horrendous defensively on third downs allowing a 43.2% conversion rate over their last three games and Carolina should have no problem extending drive after drive. This is going to be a breakout game for the Carolina offense and their defense is going to benefit from the long drives a lot more than we think.
The Vegas oddsmakers are making the mistakes of underestimating and losing confidence in the Panthers. This is the NFL and the real season doesn't begin until this week. Had the oddsmakers done their research, they would know that this is the week where the Panthers usually turn on the engines and win most of their remaining games on the schedule.
Trend of the Game: Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards the game before.
Carolina 31, Cleveland 13
Miami Dolphins +10 (4 Units)
What the hell am I doing...right? Well the same question could be asked about the last two teams who came to Foxboro for a game and that was the Buffalo Bills who came within a safety of beating the Pats at home and then came the Broncos who were big public dogs but won the game in very convincing fashion. So why the bashing on anyone who takes Miami in this game when the Patriots have failed to show they can compete at home? This is a huge game for Miami because not only does the game have Divisional implications but the game is the game after a Miami loss to the lowly Houston Texans. Nick Saban was pretty damn pissed off last week and he made sure to let his guys know in practice this week. The only concern I have with this wager is that Daunte Culpepper might be out for the game but the latest reports indicate that he will definitely play with pain or without pain. So that's good. The Dolphins are another one of those 0-4 ATS teams on the season and although I had them in Week 1 against the Steelers and they blew that game, I am willing to comeback to the land of Dolphins and see what they can do with my money. Saban's guys are averaging only 11.3 points per game in their last three games but they have averaged 5.1 yards per play which is an encouraging sign for this game. They are up against a New England defense that is allowing only 15.7 points per game in their last three but that has allowed a whopping 338.7 total yards per game on 5.7 yards per play. Another indication that they are about to be scored on. On the ground, RB Ronnie Brown has to be used a lot more. Brown is not getting the amount of carries needed to establish the run and win ball games. The Dolphins rush for only 107.0 yards per game but average a nice 4.5 yards per carry...which means run the damn ball Nick. Seeing that most teams don't run against New England since they allow 88.5 rushing yards per game in their last three games. Now I know Daunte Culpepper has struggled this season but his success in Minnesota came when he aired out the deep ball and I see him doing that today. He is completing 64.9% of his passes in his last three games but for only 5.6 yards per pass attempt. Well now it's time to go deep and drop some bombs on a New England defense that allows a whopping 7.4 yards per pass attempt over their last three games. Miami have had problems converting third downs but this is the week where they can advantage of the fact that New England allow 44.4% of third downs to be converted against them the last three weeks. As long as Miami avoids costly turnovers, they have a great shot at winning this game. Culpepper is finally going to show that he is worthy of the contract the Dolphins offered him and he has a good shot at the upset in this one.
The New England Patriots are coming into this game owing their hometown fans a lot more than they have shown them so far this year. They almost lost to the Bills in the home opener and they followed that up with a blowout loss against the Broncos on a Sunday Night. Anyways. The Patriots are coming off a huge win in Cincinnati and I'm telling you guys that this is classic New England. They win and cover the games where everyone fades them and they come back and lose or barely win against teams that they should blow out. Well this is the perfect situation for another one of those games where the Patriots let a much weaker team hang around for a long period of time. My concern though is that Tom Brady is not playing like the Tom Brady that we know and he is still struggling to find a consistent groove with his receivers now that his favorite target Deion Branch is no longer around. New England are 2-2 ATS this season and are getting a lot of public attention in this game which is generally not a good thing with the Pats. I don't know how many of you remember but Miami won here in January and that should go a long way in building confidence for some of the Miami players even if the game didn't mean anything to the Pats. New England is averaging 23.0 points per game in their last three games on a very good 384.0 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. However, Miami's defense has allowed only 14.3 points per game in their last three outings for only 254.3 total yards per game and a very good 4.5 yards per play. There is no doubt that their defense can keep them in this game and if their offense gets going, they can win this outright. New England's success has come on the recent running attack of RB's Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney who average 144.3 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry in their last three. However, running against Miami is a big no-no because they allow only 77.3 rushing yards per game in their last three on 2.7 yards per carry. This is going to force Tom Brady to pass a lot more than he wants to and that's not good seeing that he is completing only 55.5% of his passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per carry. Miami are relentless in the pass rush and although Brady has great protection, the Dolphins are going to throw some different looks at him to create confusion. The Dolphins average 3.0 sacks per game in their last three games and have three interceptions in those games. The big difference in this game is going to be the kicking game of the Patriots. Do you guys realize that this rookie kicker for the Pats has attemptd 5 FG's and hit only 2 of them? That's huge in a game like this because missing FG's or going for it on 4th down is going to cost the Pats some field position. The Dolphins are perfect on stopping 4th downs this season...so good luck to the Pats in this one but be carefule because the Dolphins are upset hungry.
Oddsmakers have created this line based on Miami's recent history in New England but what they failed to note is that Daunte Culpepper will become Miami's most effective QB since Dan Marino but it's only a matter of time before he has his breakout game. Did Vegas forget about the two New England home games this season? I don't get this line...
Trend of the Game: New England is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
New England 21, Miami 20
Indianapolis Colts -18 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The Tennessee Titans walk into the RCA Dome this week hoping to come out with anything less than a 40 point loss. This game somewhat reminds of a College Football game where the spread is off and one team is going to kill the other by 20+ points. I mean do the Titans have any hope of even competing in this game or are they going to come out looking forward to next where they get to play anyone but these Colts? I think they are going to try and win the game but that's going to turn into hopeless dreams once the end of the first quarter comes rolling around. The Albert Haynesworth has had a negative effect on this team every since it was announced that he was going to be suspended for the next five games. Team unity has been sent straight to hell with some players wanting Kerry Collins to start games and others wanting Vince Young to be the starter. Anytime there is a QB controversy, a team is going to split in half and although that may not have completely happened in this case, the team is dead as team and they just don't get along. This is going to be a tough game for this team and I don't know what else to say. The Titans are averaging only 10.3 points per game in their last three games and that is not good news in a game where they need to score 20+ to cover the spread. They average only 254.3 total yards of offense per game over that same span on 4.5 yards per play. Pathetic. The Indianapolis defense have a nice chance to redeem themselves from the 22.0 points per game they have allowed in their last three games on 305.7 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, RB Chris Brown and company average a very pathetic 65.0 rushing yards per game in their last three. The only way to beat the Colts or come close to doing so is by running the ball because they allow 4.3 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air, QB Vince Young is the man once again this week and even if Kerry Collins plays instead, it won't make much of a difference. Young and Collins have combined to complete 46.0% of their passes the last two weeks and they have the lowest QB Rating in the NFL over that same time span with a 49.0 rating. Ouch. They average 5.7 yards per pass attempt and throw 2.0 interceptions per game. Indy's defense allow only 6.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and they intercept at least one pass per game over that same time span. Tennesse is also having big time fumble problems as they fumble 2.7 times per game in their last three. They could have success on third downs in this game because Indianapolis have not played tight enough to stop other teams but that was against much better QB's and the QB situation is going to once again be a disaster for the Titans.
The Indianapolis Colts almost blew that game against the Jets last week. They made so many mental errors that most people would not want to bet on them this week with such a hefty ATS tag. However, this is the kind of game Peyton Manning thrives for. He loves to feast on very weak teams and usually pads his numbers with some big time passing yards. The Colts are 3-1 ATS and had it not been for a few stupid trick plays and some madness in that Jets game last week, the Colts would be 4-0 ATS right now and we would be looking at an even bigger spread. How quickly everyone has already forgets about the Indianapolis 35-3 win over these same Titans here in 2005 or the 51-24 blowout win here in 2004 or maybe even the 2003 win here by a score of 33-7. Yeah you get my drift and you get my points that Manning and the Colts love feasting on this weak Tennessee team that seems to have no clue what they are doing when they enter a domed surface. I just don't see how this line is not a lot higher than it currently is and even for those of you who are being offered -18.5 or 19, it's still worth a shot in my opinion because the Colts are going to turn this into a masscre. The Colts average 31.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 379.7 total yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. The best part about this soon to be blowout is that the Titans defense is allowing a whopping 32.7 points per game in their last three games and are allowing 387.0 total yards per game on 5.9 yards per play. The Colts RB's should have a big game in this one even though they have averaged only 3.8 yards per rush in their last three games. Tennessee is allowing 205.7 rushing yards per game over their last three games on 5.4 yards per carry and the running game doesn't need to do much to light Peyton Manning's fuse this week. In the air, Manning could throw for 500 yards if he makes it to the 4th quarter of this game and I say that because the Titans are just horrendous. Manning is going to play at least three quarters and continue to average 8.0 yards per pass attempt. He is going to have all the time in the world to throw the ball against a Tennessee pass defense that is allowing 6.6 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and allowing their last three opponent QB's to complete almost 70.0% of their passes. The Colts are converting nearly 60% of their third down chances over the last three games and I doubt they miss many of them today. The Titans are worth blowint out of the RCA Dome to pad some stats because most other teams do it. This game is going to get ugly really early and if you are worried about back door moosings, take Indianapolis first half when you know Peyton Manning is going to play every down of the game.
Vegas are scared shitless to drop a line bigger than 18 and they are going to pay for their stupidity. I say that because Indianapolis have blown the Titans out of every game in the RCA Dome for who knows how long and the oddsmakers are getting caught up in the thoughts of the Titans actually showing up for this game. Since the Colts covered the 15.5 last year, why wouldn't they do it again this year?
Trend of the Game: The Favorites is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Indianapolis 44, Tennessee 6
New York Giants -4 (1 Unit)
The Washington Redskins look like one of the hottest teams in the NFL since RB Clinton Portis has rejoined the team but what does it means if they can't win in New Jersey? The Skins are 2-2 both straight up and on the spread and they have been pretty damn impressive over the last two weeks. It all started with the return of Portis in their win over Houston. Portis is such a big part of this offense because he has gamebreaking speed and agility which usually has opposing defense giving the passing attack way too much respect. In last week's win over Jacksonville, it was Portis and his running that left things open for Brunell to connect with Santana Moss and what was the winning touchdown in overtime to beat the Jaguars. Now before you get too excited about Joe Gibbs and this Redskins team, you really can't forget about the 36-0 loss they suffered in this stadium last year or the 20-14 loss they suffered here the year before. I don't see much of a difference with this Redskins team and last year's and now that Eli Manning is a year older and his team is coming off a BYE week, the Redskins could be in big trouble early on in this game. Had Shawn Springs been able to play this week I might have reconsidere but he's not playing and I am not changing my mind. The Redskins average 25.7 points per game in their last three games on a very impressive 407.0 total yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. You would think that's enough to crush a Giants defense that has allowed 30.7 points per game in their last three on 370.3 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play but keep in the mind the week off for the Giants. Not only that, we talked about the Redskins rushing for 159.7 yards per game in their last three on 4.7 yards per carry and how Portis' success is important for the Redskins. Well the Giants are stout against the run and allow only 89.3 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry over their last three. In the air is where the Redskins could win the game because Mark Brunell has been damn impressive completing 66.7% of his passes over the last three games for 8.2 yards per pass attempt and a 97.5 average QB Rating. However, please keep in mind that all this was done because of the success of Portis and the running game which could struggle in this one. The Giants got torched in the air their last three games and allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Even if they do give up some big yards in this game, the lack of a Washington run game is going to force Brunell right back into making mistakes and the Giants have 1.3 interceptions per game in their last three. With the Giants defense having a week off to prepare for this, I look for them to improve heavily on several areas like 3rd down conversions and pass rush ability. This is going to be the one game where Portis and the Redskins struggle to win.
The New York Giants have been embarassed more times than not to start this season but it's not time to hit the panic button just yet. You have to keep in mind that they won by more than six points the last two times Washington came into this stadium to play them and now that Eli Manning is a year older and has a lot more experience, he could have his breakout game we have all been waiting for. The Giants have had a week to recover from tough road games against Seattle and Philadelphia and there is nothing better in the NFL than having a bye week that is followed by a home game. It keeps the team in a level of comfort with what they do in practice this week and everything on their minds at home and on the practice field has been game strategy to beat the Redskins this week. Not only do they have a good history of home games against Washington but the Giants remember the 35-20 Washington win in Washington last year and they have to return the favor with a big win of their own in this one. The Giants only win of the year came on a crazy comeback win over the Eagles in Philly but look for the Giants to dominate this game from start to finish for the first time this year. Manning's guys are averaging 27.0 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 391.3 total yards of offense and a whopping 6.5 yards per play. RB Tiki Barber and the running game are averaging 115.0 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry in their last three games which tells me we are going to see a lot of Barber today. Washington's run defense is solid allowing only 3.6 yards per carry in their last three games but Barber can open things up for Eli Manning and the pass attack. Manning has been good this season, completing 66.4% of his passes in the last three games and passing for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. He is up against a Redskins pass defense that has struggled allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. The Redskins secondary is very vulnerable to big plays and Plaxico should have a huge game this week since nobody on the Skins can cover him properly. The Giants are one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to cashing in from the Red Zone and although the Redskins have been good at stopping third downs, Manning and company hope that their big plays are enought to win this game by at least two touchdowns which is exactly what I see happening.
The oddsmakers are having problems this week. Why would the Giants be slapped with only four points here? They kiled the Skins the last two times they played here, they are coming off a BYE Week, they have Eli Manning ready to sling some mud and they are putting way too much value in Washington's wins over Houston and Jacksonville. What a big mistake this line is.
Trend of the Game: The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven that follow an ATS loss.
NY Giants 27, Washington 17
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (2 Units)
The NY Jets come into this very hot Floriday atmosphere off a very tough loss to the Colts...a game that they could have easily won but their defense pretty much blew the game and that crazy play at the end wasn't enough to get the big win. Maybe if it was a game of rugby or something they could have kicked the ball through the uprights on the run and tied the game but whatever...The Jets are off to a 2-2 start on the season but are 3-1 ATS at the same time and have been stealing a lot of people's money left and right. After analyzing their first four games, I still have the feeling that the Jets are overachieving and that it's only a matter of time before someone gets into Chad Pennington's head and he becomes the questionable QB that he has been the last 3-4 season. I mean don't you all get the same impression...that once they run into a much better team at home, they are going to get blown out. The Jets have only ever been to Jacksonville twice in their lifetime, losing both games, once by 25 points and the other time by only four points. The Jets have been slapped with the ROAD WARRIORS label but how long can that last and will people be saying the same thing next week? I don't think so...The Jets are averaging 24.3 points per game in their last three games but just ask any team who walks into Jacksonville what kinds of points they usually come out with. You can't forget that even though they scored a lot of points, the Jets average only 304.7 total yards of offense per game in their last three but have had some big plays. Jacksonville's defense is allowing only 19.0 points per game in their last three on 302.0 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Jets are struggling badly and now that Charles Houston is out, I don't see them improving on the 86.7 rushing yards per game in their last three. Regardless, everything is on Pennington in this game because the Jags allow 80.3 rushing yards per game in their last three on only 3.3 yards per carry. In the air, Pennington has been solid completing almost 66% of his passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in his last three games but now he's in Jacksonville where the Jags last three opponent QB's have completed only 52.7% of their passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Jacksonville have had problems on defense this year but they have worked hard all week and hard work usually pays off. This is going to be a tough one for the defense but they are bound to start creating turnovers and the overachieving Jets are bound to have a bad road game coming off that crushing loss to the Colts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are only 2-2 on the year but the bottom line is that their new season starts with this game and the Jaguars should be jacked up to make some big plays. They have pretty much been conservative in all their play calls this season but now it's time to let loose, unleash the offensive powerhouse that the Jags have hidden in their locker room and show me the damn money baby! The Jags should have won their overtime game against the Redskins last week but some blown coverage and some bad tackling resulted in an overtime loss for the Jags and that was all she wrote about that. I do however have to remind everyone that the Jaguars looked pretty damn good in their home games against the Cowboys and the Steelers and that now that they are back in Jacksonville for this game, we should definitely see some of that Jags team that we saw back in Weeks 1 and 2. Like I said in the post above, the Jaguars get to play a Jets team that is seriously overachieving at this point in the season. The Jets are nowhere near the kind of team that Dallas or Pittsburgh are and the Jaguars had no problems at all taking care of those two teams. The Jags are averaging 17.7 points per game in their last three games but have averaged 322.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play in their last three games. What I really like about this matchup is that the Jets are giving up 25.0 points per game in their last three games and have allowed an average of 395.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.8 yards per play. That's some big time yardage to give up to the Jags in this game. On the ground, RB's Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew whatever are rushing for only 111.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 3.9 yards per carry but now that they return home, it's time to explode. And explode they will against a Jets defense that allows 158.7 rushing yards per game in their last three on 4.5 yards per carry in those games. This is time for Fred Taylor to have a huge game and he should do it against a pourous Jets run defense. In the air, QB Byron Leftwich has played well enough to win every game this season and is completing 61.8% of his passes the last three games for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown one too many interceptions for my liking but he's far from a pick machine at home so I will take my chances with him in this one. He is up against a Jets defense that is allowing their last three QB opponents to complete 59.2% of their passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt and once the Jaguars can establish the run game early, they should have no problems throwing the deep ball and controlling the clock. This is the breakout or return game for the Jaguars and their fans and they get to do it against an emotionally drained Jets team. Opposing teams are converting 47.4% of third down chances in the last three games against the Jets and that should be the difference in this game.
Vegas think they have this lined all figured out but since some books are moving the line to 7, there is obvious concern for the line they originally came out with. The Jets are overachievers while the Jaguars have performed well but have been on the wrong side of some games. Usually when a team gets screwed late in a game like Jacksonville did last week, they rebound nicely at home the next week which is what I see happening here.
Trend of the Game: The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings
Jacksonville 24, NY Jets 10
RECAP:
Carolina -8
Miami +10
Indianapolis -18 ***POM***
NY Giants -4
Jacksonville -6.5
Sunday and Monday night games will be released on Sunday afternoon.
Good Luck to all!
:cheers:
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 12-9-1 (+8.30 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 8-5-2 (+1.70 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 3-0-1 (+15.00 Units)
I am coming off a so-so week but my PLAY OF THE WEEK was another winner and I haven't lost one of those this year. The lines are getting a lot sharper and finding big winners is getting more and more difficult. Let's do it big this week.
*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.
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Sunday, October 8
Carolina Panthers -8 (4 Units)
The Cleveland Browns are nothing like the New Orleans Saints and they are not about to come into Carolina and almost beat the Panthers much like the Saints did last week. The Browns are coming off a West Coast time win over the lowly Raiders and now have to hit the road back to the East Coast to play an early game against a Panthers team that has yet to find their identity. What I find funny about this series is that the Panthers have never lost a game against Cleveland and are the Browns are 0-2 lifetime in the regular season against the Panthers. The 24-21 come from behind win over the Raiders last week was Cleveland's first win of the year and although they did show some signs of improvement, I really don't think they stand on the same level as the Panthers. Cleveland opened the season with a home loss to the Saints, then they got blown out in Cincinnati and then the close home loss at home against the ex-Browns from Baltimore. It has not been a pleasant season for this team and I don't think things will change until they head home and play against the Broncos or Jets. On the questionable list this week is almost every important member of the Browns. They are badly banged up heading into this game. In their last three games, the Browns average 18.3 points per game but on only 290.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play. Carolina's defense is finally starting to get in a groove and even though they allow 19.3 points per game in their last three games, they are bound to improve with a week of practice at home. I see them improving on the 5.6 yards per play they have been giving up over the last three games. On the ground, RB Ruben Droughns has a very bad shoulder and even if he plays, the Browns average only 66.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on a pathetic 2.7 yards per carry. Carolina's defense has mastered shutting down the run and they allow only 3.3 yards per carry in their last three games on less than 100 yards rushing per game. In the air, QB Charlie Frye has done a good job as of late but will only have success if he can handle the incoming pressure. Frye could have a big game here if he wants because Carolina's defense has allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and they have not been playing the way they had in previous years. However, as I mentioned earlier, the Carolina defense has had all week to work in practice at home and we should see that make a huge difference in this game.
The Carolina Panthers are 2-2 on the year but a pathetic 0-4 ATS and have yet to let anyone cash in on them. What you have to understand about Carolina and they do this every year is that they start off the season on a very slow playing pace and once Game #5 comes around, they usually pick up the intensity, they play hard to beat at home and most important of all, we all realize that Jake Delhomme is an NFL Quarterback. Most people don't know who the hell he is after only four weeks of the season and how can you blame them? The Panthers haven't done shit to get recognize and they are coming off a near loss to the Saints last week. However, that game winning drive where Foster took that long rush to the house could be a huge confidence booster for the Panthers and their offense. The only reason the defense has struggled is because the offense is pulling off a bunch of three and outs and the Carolina defense usually go on the field already half dead from being on the field only a few minutes earlier. This is somewhat of a statement game for the Panthers here because they need to show the rest of the NFC that they are not pushovers like many experts have called them. In their last three games, the Panthers average 20.0 points per game and have done so on 315.0 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. Not too bad for the first month of the season but now it's time to turn things up a notch against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 23.3 points per game in their last three games on 353.7 total yards per game and 5.6 yards per play. That's not good considering who they have played against. On the ground, RB Deshaun Foster has led the Panthers to 125.0 rushing yards and 4.5 yards per carry over their last three games. Foster should have his second straight 100+ yard rushing game against a Browns defense that is allowing 146.7 rushing yards per game on a whopping 5.3 yards per carry over their last three games. In the air, QB Jake Delhomme is going to have a lot more options this week now that the running game is finally going to be effective against a weaker team. Delhomme should have his biggest game yet and although the Panthers average only 5.8 yards per pass attempt, they should raise that to about 7-8 in this game. The Browns defense have a decent pass rush but Delhomme has worked on his footwork and he won't be easy to take down. Carolina's big problem this year has been converting 3rd downs as they are converting only 25.0% of third down chances. However, Cleveland are horrendous defensively on third downs allowing a 43.2% conversion rate over their last three games and Carolina should have no problem extending drive after drive. This is going to be a breakout game for the Carolina offense and their defense is going to benefit from the long drives a lot more than we think.
The Vegas oddsmakers are making the mistakes of underestimating and losing confidence in the Panthers. This is the NFL and the real season doesn't begin until this week. Had the oddsmakers done their research, they would know that this is the week where the Panthers usually turn on the engines and win most of their remaining games on the schedule.
Trend of the Game: Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards the game before.
Carolina 31, Cleveland 13
Miami Dolphins +10 (4 Units)
What the hell am I doing...right? Well the same question could be asked about the last two teams who came to Foxboro for a game and that was the Buffalo Bills who came within a safety of beating the Pats at home and then came the Broncos who were big public dogs but won the game in very convincing fashion. So why the bashing on anyone who takes Miami in this game when the Patriots have failed to show they can compete at home? This is a huge game for Miami because not only does the game have Divisional implications but the game is the game after a Miami loss to the lowly Houston Texans. Nick Saban was pretty damn pissed off last week and he made sure to let his guys know in practice this week. The only concern I have with this wager is that Daunte Culpepper might be out for the game but the latest reports indicate that he will definitely play with pain or without pain. So that's good. The Dolphins are another one of those 0-4 ATS teams on the season and although I had them in Week 1 against the Steelers and they blew that game, I am willing to comeback to the land of Dolphins and see what they can do with my money. Saban's guys are averaging only 11.3 points per game in their last three games but they have averaged 5.1 yards per play which is an encouraging sign for this game. They are up against a New England defense that is allowing only 15.7 points per game in their last three but that has allowed a whopping 338.7 total yards per game on 5.7 yards per play. Another indication that they are about to be scored on. On the ground, RB Ronnie Brown has to be used a lot more. Brown is not getting the amount of carries needed to establish the run and win ball games. The Dolphins rush for only 107.0 yards per game but average a nice 4.5 yards per carry...which means run the damn ball Nick. Seeing that most teams don't run against New England since they allow 88.5 rushing yards per game in their last three games. Now I know Daunte Culpepper has struggled this season but his success in Minnesota came when he aired out the deep ball and I see him doing that today. He is completing 64.9% of his passes in his last three games but for only 5.6 yards per pass attempt. Well now it's time to go deep and drop some bombs on a New England defense that allows a whopping 7.4 yards per pass attempt over their last three games. Miami have had problems converting third downs but this is the week where they can advantage of the fact that New England allow 44.4% of third downs to be converted against them the last three weeks. As long as Miami avoids costly turnovers, they have a great shot at winning this game. Culpepper is finally going to show that he is worthy of the contract the Dolphins offered him and he has a good shot at the upset in this one.
The New England Patriots are coming into this game owing their hometown fans a lot more than they have shown them so far this year. They almost lost to the Bills in the home opener and they followed that up with a blowout loss against the Broncos on a Sunday Night. Anyways. The Patriots are coming off a huge win in Cincinnati and I'm telling you guys that this is classic New England. They win and cover the games where everyone fades them and they come back and lose or barely win against teams that they should blow out. Well this is the perfect situation for another one of those games where the Patriots let a much weaker team hang around for a long period of time. My concern though is that Tom Brady is not playing like the Tom Brady that we know and he is still struggling to find a consistent groove with his receivers now that his favorite target Deion Branch is no longer around. New England are 2-2 ATS this season and are getting a lot of public attention in this game which is generally not a good thing with the Pats. I don't know how many of you remember but Miami won here in January and that should go a long way in building confidence for some of the Miami players even if the game didn't mean anything to the Pats. New England is averaging 23.0 points per game in their last three games on a very good 384.0 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. However, Miami's defense has allowed only 14.3 points per game in their last three outings for only 254.3 total yards per game and a very good 4.5 yards per play. There is no doubt that their defense can keep them in this game and if their offense gets going, they can win this outright. New England's success has come on the recent running attack of RB's Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney who average 144.3 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry in their last three. However, running against Miami is a big no-no because they allow only 77.3 rushing yards per game in their last three on 2.7 yards per carry. This is going to force Tom Brady to pass a lot more than he wants to and that's not good seeing that he is completing only 55.5% of his passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per carry. Miami are relentless in the pass rush and although Brady has great protection, the Dolphins are going to throw some different looks at him to create confusion. The Dolphins average 3.0 sacks per game in their last three games and have three interceptions in those games. The big difference in this game is going to be the kicking game of the Patriots. Do you guys realize that this rookie kicker for the Pats has attemptd 5 FG's and hit only 2 of them? That's huge in a game like this because missing FG's or going for it on 4th down is going to cost the Pats some field position. The Dolphins are perfect on stopping 4th downs this season...so good luck to the Pats in this one but be carefule because the Dolphins are upset hungry.
Oddsmakers have created this line based on Miami's recent history in New England but what they failed to note is that Daunte Culpepper will become Miami's most effective QB since Dan Marino but it's only a matter of time before he has his breakout game. Did Vegas forget about the two New England home games this season? I don't get this line...
Trend of the Game: New England is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
New England 21, Miami 20
Indianapolis Colts -18 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The Tennessee Titans walk into the RCA Dome this week hoping to come out with anything less than a 40 point loss. This game somewhat reminds of a College Football game where the spread is off and one team is going to kill the other by 20+ points. I mean do the Titans have any hope of even competing in this game or are they going to come out looking forward to next where they get to play anyone but these Colts? I think they are going to try and win the game but that's going to turn into hopeless dreams once the end of the first quarter comes rolling around. The Albert Haynesworth has had a negative effect on this team every since it was announced that he was going to be suspended for the next five games. Team unity has been sent straight to hell with some players wanting Kerry Collins to start games and others wanting Vince Young to be the starter. Anytime there is a QB controversy, a team is going to split in half and although that may not have completely happened in this case, the team is dead as team and they just don't get along. This is going to be a tough game for this team and I don't know what else to say. The Titans are averaging only 10.3 points per game in their last three games and that is not good news in a game where they need to score 20+ to cover the spread. They average only 254.3 total yards of offense per game over that same span on 4.5 yards per play. Pathetic. The Indianapolis defense have a nice chance to redeem themselves from the 22.0 points per game they have allowed in their last three games on 305.7 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, RB Chris Brown and company average a very pathetic 65.0 rushing yards per game in their last three. The only way to beat the Colts or come close to doing so is by running the ball because they allow 4.3 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air, QB Vince Young is the man once again this week and even if Kerry Collins plays instead, it won't make much of a difference. Young and Collins have combined to complete 46.0% of their passes the last two weeks and they have the lowest QB Rating in the NFL over that same time span with a 49.0 rating. Ouch. They average 5.7 yards per pass attempt and throw 2.0 interceptions per game. Indy's defense allow only 6.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and they intercept at least one pass per game over that same time span. Tennesse is also having big time fumble problems as they fumble 2.7 times per game in their last three. They could have success on third downs in this game because Indianapolis have not played tight enough to stop other teams but that was against much better QB's and the QB situation is going to once again be a disaster for the Titans.
The Indianapolis Colts almost blew that game against the Jets last week. They made so many mental errors that most people would not want to bet on them this week with such a hefty ATS tag. However, this is the kind of game Peyton Manning thrives for. He loves to feast on very weak teams and usually pads his numbers with some big time passing yards. The Colts are 3-1 ATS and had it not been for a few stupid trick plays and some madness in that Jets game last week, the Colts would be 4-0 ATS right now and we would be looking at an even bigger spread. How quickly everyone has already forgets about the Indianapolis 35-3 win over these same Titans here in 2005 or the 51-24 blowout win here in 2004 or maybe even the 2003 win here by a score of 33-7. Yeah you get my drift and you get my points that Manning and the Colts love feasting on this weak Tennessee team that seems to have no clue what they are doing when they enter a domed surface. I just don't see how this line is not a lot higher than it currently is and even for those of you who are being offered -18.5 or 19, it's still worth a shot in my opinion because the Colts are going to turn this into a masscre. The Colts average 31.7 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 379.7 total yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. The best part about this soon to be blowout is that the Titans defense is allowing a whopping 32.7 points per game in their last three games and are allowing 387.0 total yards per game on 5.9 yards per play. The Colts RB's should have a big game in this one even though they have averaged only 3.8 yards per rush in their last three games. Tennessee is allowing 205.7 rushing yards per game over their last three games on 5.4 yards per carry and the running game doesn't need to do much to light Peyton Manning's fuse this week. In the air, Manning could throw for 500 yards if he makes it to the 4th quarter of this game and I say that because the Titans are just horrendous. Manning is going to play at least three quarters and continue to average 8.0 yards per pass attempt. He is going to have all the time in the world to throw the ball against a Tennessee pass defense that is allowing 6.6 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and allowing their last three opponent QB's to complete almost 70.0% of their passes. The Colts are converting nearly 60% of their third down chances over the last three games and I doubt they miss many of them today. The Titans are worth blowint out of the RCA Dome to pad some stats because most other teams do it. This game is going to get ugly really early and if you are worried about back door moosings, take Indianapolis first half when you know Peyton Manning is going to play every down of the game.
Vegas are scared shitless to drop a line bigger than 18 and they are going to pay for their stupidity. I say that because Indianapolis have blown the Titans out of every game in the RCA Dome for who knows how long and the oddsmakers are getting caught up in the thoughts of the Titans actually showing up for this game. Since the Colts covered the 15.5 last year, why wouldn't they do it again this year?
Trend of the Game: The Favorites is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Indianapolis 44, Tennessee 6
New York Giants -4 (1 Unit)
The Washington Redskins look like one of the hottest teams in the NFL since RB Clinton Portis has rejoined the team but what does it means if they can't win in New Jersey? The Skins are 2-2 both straight up and on the spread and they have been pretty damn impressive over the last two weeks. It all started with the return of Portis in their win over Houston. Portis is such a big part of this offense because he has gamebreaking speed and agility which usually has opposing defense giving the passing attack way too much respect. In last week's win over Jacksonville, it was Portis and his running that left things open for Brunell to connect with Santana Moss and what was the winning touchdown in overtime to beat the Jaguars. Now before you get too excited about Joe Gibbs and this Redskins team, you really can't forget about the 36-0 loss they suffered in this stadium last year or the 20-14 loss they suffered here the year before. I don't see much of a difference with this Redskins team and last year's and now that Eli Manning is a year older and his team is coming off a BYE week, the Redskins could be in big trouble early on in this game. Had Shawn Springs been able to play this week I might have reconsidere but he's not playing and I am not changing my mind. The Redskins average 25.7 points per game in their last three games on a very impressive 407.0 total yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. You would think that's enough to crush a Giants defense that has allowed 30.7 points per game in their last three on 370.3 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play but keep in the mind the week off for the Giants. Not only that, we talked about the Redskins rushing for 159.7 yards per game in their last three on 4.7 yards per carry and how Portis' success is important for the Redskins. Well the Giants are stout against the run and allow only 89.3 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry over their last three. In the air is where the Redskins could win the game because Mark Brunell has been damn impressive completing 66.7% of his passes over the last three games for 8.2 yards per pass attempt and a 97.5 average QB Rating. However, please keep in mind that all this was done because of the success of Portis and the running game which could struggle in this one. The Giants got torched in the air their last three games and allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Even if they do give up some big yards in this game, the lack of a Washington run game is going to force Brunell right back into making mistakes and the Giants have 1.3 interceptions per game in their last three. With the Giants defense having a week off to prepare for this, I look for them to improve heavily on several areas like 3rd down conversions and pass rush ability. This is going to be the one game where Portis and the Redskins struggle to win.
The New York Giants have been embarassed more times than not to start this season but it's not time to hit the panic button just yet. You have to keep in mind that they won by more than six points the last two times Washington came into this stadium to play them and now that Eli Manning is a year older and has a lot more experience, he could have his breakout game we have all been waiting for. The Giants have had a week to recover from tough road games against Seattle and Philadelphia and there is nothing better in the NFL than having a bye week that is followed by a home game. It keeps the team in a level of comfort with what they do in practice this week and everything on their minds at home and on the practice field has been game strategy to beat the Redskins this week. Not only do they have a good history of home games against Washington but the Giants remember the 35-20 Washington win in Washington last year and they have to return the favor with a big win of their own in this one. The Giants only win of the year came on a crazy comeback win over the Eagles in Philly but look for the Giants to dominate this game from start to finish for the first time this year. Manning's guys are averaging 27.0 points per game in their last three games and have done so on 391.3 total yards of offense and a whopping 6.5 yards per play. RB Tiki Barber and the running game are averaging 115.0 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry in their last three games which tells me we are going to see a lot of Barber today. Washington's run defense is solid allowing only 3.6 yards per carry in their last three games but Barber can open things up for Eli Manning and the pass attack. Manning has been good this season, completing 66.4% of his passes in the last three games and passing for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. He is up against a Redskins pass defense that has struggled allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. The Redskins secondary is very vulnerable to big plays and Plaxico should have a huge game this week since nobody on the Skins can cover him properly. The Giants are one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to cashing in from the Red Zone and although the Redskins have been good at stopping third downs, Manning and company hope that their big plays are enought to win this game by at least two touchdowns which is exactly what I see happening.
The oddsmakers are having problems this week. Why would the Giants be slapped with only four points here? They kiled the Skins the last two times they played here, they are coming off a BYE Week, they have Eli Manning ready to sling some mud and they are putting way too much value in Washington's wins over Houston and Jacksonville. What a big mistake this line is.
Trend of the Game: The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven that follow an ATS loss.
NY Giants 27, Washington 17
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (2 Units)
The NY Jets come into this very hot Floriday atmosphere off a very tough loss to the Colts...a game that they could have easily won but their defense pretty much blew the game and that crazy play at the end wasn't enough to get the big win. Maybe if it was a game of rugby or something they could have kicked the ball through the uprights on the run and tied the game but whatever...The Jets are off to a 2-2 start on the season but are 3-1 ATS at the same time and have been stealing a lot of people's money left and right. After analyzing their first four games, I still have the feeling that the Jets are overachieving and that it's only a matter of time before someone gets into Chad Pennington's head and he becomes the questionable QB that he has been the last 3-4 season. I mean don't you all get the same impression...that once they run into a much better team at home, they are going to get blown out. The Jets have only ever been to Jacksonville twice in their lifetime, losing both games, once by 25 points and the other time by only four points. The Jets have been slapped with the ROAD WARRIORS label but how long can that last and will people be saying the same thing next week? I don't think so...The Jets are averaging 24.3 points per game in their last three games but just ask any team who walks into Jacksonville what kinds of points they usually come out with. You can't forget that even though they scored a lot of points, the Jets average only 304.7 total yards of offense per game in their last three but have had some big plays. Jacksonville's defense is allowing only 19.0 points per game in their last three on 302.0 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Jets are struggling badly and now that Charles Houston is out, I don't see them improving on the 86.7 rushing yards per game in their last three. Regardless, everything is on Pennington in this game because the Jags allow 80.3 rushing yards per game in their last three on only 3.3 yards per carry. In the air, Pennington has been solid completing almost 66% of his passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in his last three games but now he's in Jacksonville where the Jags last three opponent QB's have completed only 52.7% of their passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Jacksonville have had problems on defense this year but they have worked hard all week and hard work usually pays off. This is going to be a tough one for the defense but they are bound to start creating turnovers and the overachieving Jets are bound to have a bad road game coming off that crushing loss to the Colts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are only 2-2 on the year but the bottom line is that their new season starts with this game and the Jaguars should be jacked up to make some big plays. They have pretty much been conservative in all their play calls this season but now it's time to let loose, unleash the offensive powerhouse that the Jags have hidden in their locker room and show me the damn money baby! The Jags should have won their overtime game against the Redskins last week but some blown coverage and some bad tackling resulted in an overtime loss for the Jags and that was all she wrote about that. I do however have to remind everyone that the Jaguars looked pretty damn good in their home games against the Cowboys and the Steelers and that now that they are back in Jacksonville for this game, we should definitely see some of that Jags team that we saw back in Weeks 1 and 2. Like I said in the post above, the Jaguars get to play a Jets team that is seriously overachieving at this point in the season. The Jets are nowhere near the kind of team that Dallas or Pittsburgh are and the Jaguars had no problems at all taking care of those two teams. The Jags are averaging 17.7 points per game in their last three games but have averaged 322.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play in their last three games. What I really like about this matchup is that the Jets are giving up 25.0 points per game in their last three games and have allowed an average of 395.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.8 yards per play. That's some big time yardage to give up to the Jags in this game. On the ground, RB's Fred Taylor and Maurice Drew whatever are rushing for only 111.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 3.9 yards per carry but now that they return home, it's time to explode. And explode they will against a Jets defense that allows 158.7 rushing yards per game in their last three on 4.5 yards per carry in those games. This is time for Fred Taylor to have a huge game and he should do it against a pourous Jets run defense. In the air, QB Byron Leftwich has played well enough to win every game this season and is completing 61.8% of his passes the last three games for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown one too many interceptions for my liking but he's far from a pick machine at home so I will take my chances with him in this one. He is up against a Jets defense that is allowing their last three QB opponents to complete 59.2% of their passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt and once the Jaguars can establish the run game early, they should have no problems throwing the deep ball and controlling the clock. This is the breakout or return game for the Jaguars and their fans and they get to do it against an emotionally drained Jets team. Opposing teams are converting 47.4% of third down chances in the last three games against the Jets and that should be the difference in this game.
Vegas think they have this lined all figured out but since some books are moving the line to 7, there is obvious concern for the line they originally came out with. The Jets are overachievers while the Jaguars have performed well but have been on the wrong side of some games. Usually when a team gets screwed late in a game like Jacksonville did last week, they rebound nicely at home the next week which is what I see happening here.
Trend of the Game: The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings
Jacksonville 24, NY Jets 10
RECAP:
Carolina -8
Miami +10
Indianapolis -18 ***POM***
NY Giants -4
Jacksonville -6.5
Sunday and Monday night games will be released on Sunday afternoon.
Good Luck to all!
:cheers:
