Mistaflava's Week 1 ***NFL Power Picks*** (Writeups and Analysis)

MistaFlava

Cheerleader
2006 NFL Record: 0-1 (-1.10 Units)
2006 ATS Record: 0-1 (-1.10 Units)
2006 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)

I did not post my picks anywhere last season (well not on a regular basis) but I did do well for the first part of the season before fading off and getting caught up in College Football Bowl Games and what not. Anyways, I provide all my thoughts and reasoning when I do my writeups and although I use a lot of slang, I try to keep it was good as possible. Hope you enjoy my season, good luck to all guys!
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Cincinnati-Kansas City 'Over' 46.5 (5 Units)

WHO DEY? Who cares if you ask me. This game is not about how well Cincinnati is going to do this year, it's not about who is going to win the game and cover the spread, but it is about who is going to come out and make the first big statement of this NFL season. The team that throws the biggest punch in a this fight is going to win and I couldn't care less who it was on the winning side of things once this is all said and done. Cincinnati is coming off their best season in years and now the key question remains to be seen as we wait to see if the Bengals can reproduce some of that success or if they will come crashing right back down to earth like some expect and possibly miss the playoffs. Not happening anytime soon. The Bengals have countless offensive weapons and as tempting as it is to take them in this game, I just don't have enough confidence in them on the road to win this or to cover the silly two points. The totals are the way to go in the first week of the season and it seems like this should be a shootout. QB Carson Palmer is fully recovered from torn ligament knee surgery in the off-season and in his preseason appearances, said he was dying to get the season started which is always a good sign coming into Kansas City. RB Rudi Johnson should have a monster game here. Sure the Chiefs got better last season when it came to stopping the run but the Bengals are such a threat in the air that you really can't concentrate on stopping Johnson. You can expect a lot of between the tackles running plays from Johnson and that is a good spot for him to setup the passing game. Once Johnson can get going early, it's time to hit the aerial attack and see what this Chiefs defense is all about. Ty Law is on the Chiefs and he will probably be on Chad Johnson all night. So let's recap...Ty Law, Herman Edwards as new Chiefs coach, several picks for Law last season...can you say the Hermy Cover 2 is moving to KC? My question is...what can you do about the other receivers on this Cincinnati team and what can you do to ensure that Mr. Riverdance doesn't sneak by when Law is helping out on the left side? You can't and that is why the Bengals will score at least 21-28 points in this game. The Chiefs are not that big on the D-Line and Johnson should set up some big plays for Palmer and this offense. Palmer will be anxious to kickoff the season with a bang and that surely means he will go for some big yardage plays.

The Kansas City Chiefs have changed since last season and not only is Herm Edwards the new coach around here, he is trying to teach these guys an entirely new system similar to the one he ran in New York with the Jets and I will call for that to take more than one game to get used to. The Chiefs have always had a powerful offense and that shouldn't change. I also like their chances of putting big yardage in this game against a Cincinnati team that has allowed a lot of road points over the last few years. I am very interested and intrigued to see what kind of gameplan the Chiefs are going to come out with. I know that they have expressed great interest in keeping the Cincinnati offense off the field as much as possible by constantly running the ball but how long will that last and how long will it take for Herman Edwards to understand that this is not the Jets and keeping this game low-scoring is not going to happen. Well he needs to understand that soon. RB Larry Johnson is one of the best backs in the NFL and seeing that the Bengals were just horrendous against the run last season, I can see Johnson having a huge game here as he runs up the middle and breaks free for some big gains. The key in this game and for OVER backers is going to be the emergence of a decent WR for the Chiefs because right now I am not too sure who QB Trent Green is going to be looking for downfield when he wants to air out the deep ball. Green is not getting any younger and the INT's are starting to pile up. TE Tony Gonzalez is the only receiving threat on this team and my main concern is that he will be mostly needed in blocking schemes because FB Tony Richardson is now gone and the Chiefs don't have anyone to block for them. We are most certainly going to see Cincinnati attack Green early on in this game and hopefully this defense can force a few turnovers here and there and maybe once again lead the NFL in interceptions even though they have problems stopping other teams in the air. The KC Offensive line is a big problem at this point in the season and if Cincinnati gets penetration and if they can attack the holes without much resistance, Larry Johnson won't be going anywhere fast. Look for Rudi Johnson to be the real star of this Bengals win as he will be called on several times to open up some holes and give Carson Palmer some time with the ball. This should be a fun game to watch and I don't doubt for one second that the Bengals will pull off the big road win against a KC team that is still learning the system.

Trend of the Game: The Bengals are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.


Cincinnati 28, Kansas City 26




RECAP:

Miami +1 LOSS
Cincinnati-Kansas City 'Over' 46.5




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Good luck this week Flava, I like the Jags as well.

However, I pretty much have a complete opposite opinion of the Rams/Broncos game.

I think you are severly mistaken if you believe that the Rams are going to be the same old Rams. The system being employed by coach Linehan is completely opposite of that of Martz. Bulger has known ONE system his entire NFL career, and now that system is gone. What kind of effect has this had? Consider that the Rams first string offense failed to score ONE touchdown in the preseason. Outside of Holt, who else is St.Louis gonna throw to? Shaun McDonald? Ike Bruce? Also consider that all the upgrades the Rams made to their team was on the defensive side of the ball. Witherspoon and Glover not only bring leadership, but skill to two critical positions on defense. The Rams will run the ball on Sunday, and they will run it often. Remember the Dolphins offense in the firs 9 games of lastr season? Remember that Chris Chambers did jack shit? Well, eventually that offense clicked, and even Gus Frerrote looked good in it. I think the Rams offense will be good at one point, just not week 1.

Keep up the good work, I enjoy your insights.
 
Lots of nice picks ther my friend, I hope you have a very successful season bro.
 
on the other side of the total in the Cleveland game Flava... like the rest of them though.

Good stuff :cheers:
 
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