MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Record: 62-46-2 (-26.10 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 52-38-2 ATS (-17.30 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-8 (-8.80 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 6-5 (+15.50 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-1 (+54.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-4 (-136.50 Units)
Alright, I am off to a great start this week with big winners on Ball State and Miami Ohio last night. It's time to keep the winning ways going tonight as we have two big games with big conference implications. As I mentioned before, I am looking for the perfect week and have no doubt in my mind that I can achieve that.
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Thursday, November 16
Pittsburgh Panthers +10 (25 Units) ***BIG EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The West Virginia Moutaineers are capable of blowing out just about anyteam in the Country by 30+ points. That's a fact, not an opinion. The problem however with betting on teams like West Virginia is that their schedule was so weak this season that stats are misleading and stats are often sending bettors in the wrong direction. The highest ranked team West Virginia played was Louisville a few weeks back and we all know what happened there. The next highest team they played against was Maryland on a Thursday night but I must remind you that the Mountaineers were at home in that game and they still managed to allow 24 points against an at the time struggling Maryland team. The Mountaineers have been given several National TV appearances this season but the point remains that when placed on the biggest and grandest stage of all...Thursday Nights, the Mountaineers have looked so-so in one game and looked horrendous in the other. Forget the Friday Night games because those are just not the same as the Thursday Nighters. Alright, so this team is 5-3 ATS on the season and still have very high hopes of winning the Conference and getting a spot in the BCS. We are only five days out of a game where WVU allowed 24 points at home against Cincinnati. How quickly has this team and defense recovered anyways? The Mountaineers are averaging 38.5 points per Big East Conference game on 483.0 total yards and 7.9 yards per play. The reason for the high numbers, and people tend to overlook this, is that their defense allows so many quick scores in Conference play that the offense is almost always right back on the field having to drive the entire distance down the field. Pittsburgh's defense is allowing 22.8 points per Big East game this season and allowing only 354.2 total yards and 4.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, I don't have anything to say because we all know WVU's offense runs for 300+ yards per game. Pitt are allowing 4.1 yards per carry in conference play this year so yeah I don't doubt Steve Slaton and Pat White can each run for 150+ yards in this one. Once again, spreads are not covered on ability to run and score. In Big East play, Pat White is completing 62.3% of his passes for 8.4 yards per pass attempt, has been sacked only three times and intercepted two times. Pitt's defense is allowing a ton of yards in the air in Conference play but the intensity is always different against West Virginia. Here is my x-factor guys. West Virginia have fumbled 14 times in four Big East conference games. They have a problem against teams who go for the ball on tackles and Pitt is one of the best in the Country at taking the ball away. The Panthers have forced 11 fumbles in Big East play and recovered 7 of those fumbles. WVU does have the skill to knock the shit out of Pitt, but fumbles and turnovers have been an issue and will continue to be an issue tonight. Remember the name Ray Lewis...sorry, I mean HB Blades.
The Pitt Panthers (as Wannstedt wants them to be called) have had an up and down year. This was a team I thought would have a great shot at winning the Conference when all was said and done but some crucial losses along the way put them back in their place and they are now playing to a better Bowl Game. Would you believe that Pitt has lost three straight Conference games and that confidence is at an all-time low for the season? I believe it but I also know that every single one of those Pitt players has been looking forward to this game for a very long time and this is when you will each and every player give it their Pittsburgh all. You guys probably don't know this but Pitt has not been an underdog all season. Since 2001, Pitt has been a home underdog to a ranked team six times and are 5-1 ATS in those games. In 2001, they covered against #1 Miami and then beat #12 Virginia Tech both as home dogs. In 2002, they covered against #20 Texas A&M as a home underdog. In 2003, they beat #5 Virginia Tech as a home underdog but lost to #10 Miami. In 2004, they beat this #21 West Virginia team as a home underdog. Safe enough to say that the attitude and mental aspect of things is very different for this team when they play as home dogs. The Panthers are averaging 24.2 points per Big East Conference game and have done it on 326.8 total yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. West Virginia's defense has yet to be tested (other than in the Louisville game where they sucked) and they allow only 24.0 points per conference game on 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, Pitt knows they don't have much of a running game nor are they here to prove anything with their running game. Sure a couple of yards on the ground will be nice but WVU's D-Line is top notch and the Panthers shouldn't try too hard. In the air however, QB Tyler Palko (when he is on in his game) is a better overall QB than Pat White. He doesn't have any superstar receivers like Greg Lee last year but he is completing 65.5% of his passes in Big East play for 8.5 yards per pass attempt and only 3 interceptions in five games. His offensive is good enough to give him time to find receiver against the weakest secondary in the Big East. The Mountaineers allow 7.5 yards per pass attempt in Conference play and rely on athletic ability to make plays. Pittsburgh average 57.0 penalty yards in Conference play while WVU average 78.8 penalty yards per game in Big East play. The Panthers will put up a fight in this one.
I am getting sick and tired of trying to explain to fellow amateur cappers that National TV games are never about the better football team. They are all about intangibles, variables and a bunch of other complex aspects of football that the naked bettor would never understand. I know Pittsburgh doesn't have as much overall talent as West Virginia. However, on the mental side of things, this is the first time Pitt has been an underdog all season and they have been lights out as home underdogs over the years...something bettors are totally ignoring tonight. Vegas has everyone jumping up and down about West Virginia but once again you have all forgotten about Rutgers and Virginia Tech, the last two teams to host a ranked opponent as an underdog on a Thursday Night. The trap has been set for WVU backers and as much as I would love for everyone to realize it, it seems like some people just never learn. I am not one to bet on dogs I don't think can win the game, but this is an exception.
Trend of the Game: Since 2001, Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS at home when hosting a ranked team as an underdog.
West Virginia 28, Pittsburgh 26
Ohio Bobcats -4.5 (50 Units) ***MAC PLAY OF THE YEAR***
The Akron Zips returned 17 starters to their team this season but let me tell you right now that they have played nothing like a team returning that many starters. The Zips are currently 5-5 on the year needing one more win to become Bowl Eligible. I don't have a problem with that but they are contending with an Ohio team that has not been to a Bowl Game since 1968 and that wants this game more than anyone other team out there. The MAC East is pretty much on the line here but if Akron doesn't win this game, they have zero hopes of playing in the MAC Title game in a few weeks. The Zips have played well against some non-conference opponents like Penn State, NC State, North Texas, Cincinnati but they have been horrendous and shockingly bad in games against MAC Conference opponents. I mean losing to Central Michigan by three is nothing to be ashamed of but getting demolished by Kent State on the road, barley beating Miami Ohio at home and getting smoked by Toledo on the road are all hardly impressive. They clearly show that Akron cannot keepup with conference opponents this season. I mean the Zips are only 1-5 ATS in their six MAC Conference games this season and I don't see why that sould improve tonight. The Zips are averaging 24.3 points per game in MAC Conference play on 380.0 total yards and 6.0 yards per play. However, Ohio's defense is as good as it gets in the conference and they are allowing only 14.7 points per conference game this season. On the ground, Akron have had problems running the ball, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry in MAC play. Ohio allows only 3.8 yards per carry in Conference play so I don't see Akron getting anywhere with the running attack. In the air, Luke Getsy is the best QB in the conference but he sorely misses some of last year's big playmakers (Dixon and Biggs). He is completing only 55.7% of his passes in conference play for 8.4 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown 6 interceptions against MAC opponents. Ohio's secondary is outstanding as they allow opposing MAC QB's to complete only 50.9% of their passes for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Akron's O-Line has had problems protecting Getsy and I see Ohio making some big time plays tonight. Akron is penalized 8.8 times per conference game while Ohio are penalized only 6.5 times per game. Akron won't show up tonight.
The Ohio Bobcats have not been to a Bowl Game since 1968 and let me tell you right now that Athens, Ohio is going nuts right about now. Not only are these fans at Peden Stadium going to be riled up for the Ohio State game on Saturday but they are also going to be riled for a chance of winning the MAC Conference Title for the first time in ages. This is unreal...Ohio is 7-3 on the year, they have locked up a spot in a Bowl Game for the first time in 38 years and they are one mere win away from reaching the MAC Conference Title Game. That's impressive because playing in the MAC is not easy but Frank Solich and his guys have done a great job against all their conference opponents with the exception of one road loss to Northern Illinois earlier this season. How can the Bobcats be favored by only this many points when they have swept the board against garbage teams. Sure they lost to Bowling Green but that was ages ago and they have since won five straight games over very worthy opponents in Kent State, Illinois, Western Michigan, Buffalo and Easter Michigan. Solich has brought a whole new attitude to this program and we are already seeing drastic changes (a Bowl bid). Ohio is averaging 24.3 points per conference game this season on 340.3 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. Akron's defense is allowing a whopping 25.5 points per game in MAC play this season on 333.7 total yards and 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, Ohio RB Kalvin McRae is by far the class of the MAC with Garrett Wolfe. He has rushed for 100+ yards six times this season and the Bobcats average 5.0 yards per carry on the year in MAC play. Akron's run defense has done a good job but the more they defend the run, the more Ohio will strike in the air. QB Austen Everson is a Senior and he knows how to win. He is completing 61.8% of his passes in conference play for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown only 5 interceptions in MAC play and been sacked only 7 times (great offensive line play). Akron have only two interceptions in six MAC Conference games and they are allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt in those games. I would to say that the teams are evenly matched but Frank Solich has these Bobcats playing like they have never played before and they should roll in this game.
Nobody cares about this game tonight because it doesn't come anywhere close to the same magnitude of the Big East game but I feel that oddsmakers were very very soft with their linemaking here regardless of the bad weather. Everyone seems to keep thinking Akron has a shot in this one but Ohio gets no respect whatsoever when it comes to Vegas odds. It's time for Frank Solich and his team to show the betting world and the MAC football world that they are ready for the Title Game and ready to go back to another Bowl Game. Don't be fooled by the recent string of MAC Conference underdogs (like the two we have had this week) because those were the perfect spot for a dog while this is not. Peden Stadium will be rocking with fans from both teams but I expect the Bobcat faithful to be losing their minds and going nuts for the big win. Defense matters in this game. No MAC dog tonight.
Trend of the Game: Ohio is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games that follow a straight up win.
Ohio 28, Akron 16
:cheers:
2006 CFB ATS Record: 52-38-2 ATS (-17.30 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-8 (-8.80 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 6-5 (+15.50 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-1 (+54.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-4 (-136.50 Units)
Alright, I am off to a great start this week with big winners on Ball State and Miami Ohio last night. It's time to keep the winning ways going tonight as we have two big games with big conference implications. As I mentioned before, I am looking for the perfect week and have no doubt in my mind that I can achieve that.
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Thursday, November 16
Pittsburgh Panthers +10 (25 Units) ***BIG EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The West Virginia Moutaineers are capable of blowing out just about anyteam in the Country by 30+ points. That's a fact, not an opinion. The problem however with betting on teams like West Virginia is that their schedule was so weak this season that stats are misleading and stats are often sending bettors in the wrong direction. The highest ranked team West Virginia played was Louisville a few weeks back and we all know what happened there. The next highest team they played against was Maryland on a Thursday night but I must remind you that the Mountaineers were at home in that game and they still managed to allow 24 points against an at the time struggling Maryland team. The Mountaineers have been given several National TV appearances this season but the point remains that when placed on the biggest and grandest stage of all...Thursday Nights, the Mountaineers have looked so-so in one game and looked horrendous in the other. Forget the Friday Night games because those are just not the same as the Thursday Nighters. Alright, so this team is 5-3 ATS on the season and still have very high hopes of winning the Conference and getting a spot in the BCS. We are only five days out of a game where WVU allowed 24 points at home against Cincinnati. How quickly has this team and defense recovered anyways? The Mountaineers are averaging 38.5 points per Big East Conference game on 483.0 total yards and 7.9 yards per play. The reason for the high numbers, and people tend to overlook this, is that their defense allows so many quick scores in Conference play that the offense is almost always right back on the field having to drive the entire distance down the field. Pittsburgh's defense is allowing 22.8 points per Big East game this season and allowing only 354.2 total yards and 4.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, I don't have anything to say because we all know WVU's offense runs for 300+ yards per game. Pitt are allowing 4.1 yards per carry in conference play this year so yeah I don't doubt Steve Slaton and Pat White can each run for 150+ yards in this one. Once again, spreads are not covered on ability to run and score. In Big East play, Pat White is completing 62.3% of his passes for 8.4 yards per pass attempt, has been sacked only three times and intercepted two times. Pitt's defense is allowing a ton of yards in the air in Conference play but the intensity is always different against West Virginia. Here is my x-factor guys. West Virginia have fumbled 14 times in four Big East conference games. They have a problem against teams who go for the ball on tackles and Pitt is one of the best in the Country at taking the ball away. The Panthers have forced 11 fumbles in Big East play and recovered 7 of those fumbles. WVU does have the skill to knock the shit out of Pitt, but fumbles and turnovers have been an issue and will continue to be an issue tonight. Remember the name Ray Lewis...sorry, I mean HB Blades.
The Pitt Panthers (as Wannstedt wants them to be called) have had an up and down year. This was a team I thought would have a great shot at winning the Conference when all was said and done but some crucial losses along the way put them back in their place and they are now playing to a better Bowl Game. Would you believe that Pitt has lost three straight Conference games and that confidence is at an all-time low for the season? I believe it but I also know that every single one of those Pitt players has been looking forward to this game for a very long time and this is when you will each and every player give it their Pittsburgh all. You guys probably don't know this but Pitt has not been an underdog all season. Since 2001, Pitt has been a home underdog to a ranked team six times and are 5-1 ATS in those games. In 2001, they covered against #1 Miami and then beat #12 Virginia Tech both as home dogs. In 2002, they covered against #20 Texas A&M as a home underdog. In 2003, they beat #5 Virginia Tech as a home underdog but lost to #10 Miami. In 2004, they beat this #21 West Virginia team as a home underdog. Safe enough to say that the attitude and mental aspect of things is very different for this team when they play as home dogs. The Panthers are averaging 24.2 points per Big East Conference game and have done it on 326.8 total yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. West Virginia's defense has yet to be tested (other than in the Louisville game where they sucked) and they allow only 24.0 points per conference game on 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, Pitt knows they don't have much of a running game nor are they here to prove anything with their running game. Sure a couple of yards on the ground will be nice but WVU's D-Line is top notch and the Panthers shouldn't try too hard. In the air however, QB Tyler Palko (when he is on in his game) is a better overall QB than Pat White. He doesn't have any superstar receivers like Greg Lee last year but he is completing 65.5% of his passes in Big East play for 8.5 yards per pass attempt and only 3 interceptions in five games. His offensive is good enough to give him time to find receiver against the weakest secondary in the Big East. The Mountaineers allow 7.5 yards per pass attempt in Conference play and rely on athletic ability to make plays. Pittsburgh average 57.0 penalty yards in Conference play while WVU average 78.8 penalty yards per game in Big East play. The Panthers will put up a fight in this one.
I am getting sick and tired of trying to explain to fellow amateur cappers that National TV games are never about the better football team. They are all about intangibles, variables and a bunch of other complex aspects of football that the naked bettor would never understand. I know Pittsburgh doesn't have as much overall talent as West Virginia. However, on the mental side of things, this is the first time Pitt has been an underdog all season and they have been lights out as home underdogs over the years...something bettors are totally ignoring tonight. Vegas has everyone jumping up and down about West Virginia but once again you have all forgotten about Rutgers and Virginia Tech, the last two teams to host a ranked opponent as an underdog on a Thursday Night. The trap has been set for WVU backers and as much as I would love for everyone to realize it, it seems like some people just never learn. I am not one to bet on dogs I don't think can win the game, but this is an exception.
Trend of the Game: Since 2001, Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS at home when hosting a ranked team as an underdog.
West Virginia 28, Pittsburgh 26
Ohio Bobcats -4.5 (50 Units) ***MAC PLAY OF THE YEAR***
The Akron Zips returned 17 starters to their team this season but let me tell you right now that they have played nothing like a team returning that many starters. The Zips are currently 5-5 on the year needing one more win to become Bowl Eligible. I don't have a problem with that but they are contending with an Ohio team that has not been to a Bowl Game since 1968 and that wants this game more than anyone other team out there. The MAC East is pretty much on the line here but if Akron doesn't win this game, they have zero hopes of playing in the MAC Title game in a few weeks. The Zips have played well against some non-conference opponents like Penn State, NC State, North Texas, Cincinnati but they have been horrendous and shockingly bad in games against MAC Conference opponents. I mean losing to Central Michigan by three is nothing to be ashamed of but getting demolished by Kent State on the road, barley beating Miami Ohio at home and getting smoked by Toledo on the road are all hardly impressive. They clearly show that Akron cannot keepup with conference opponents this season. I mean the Zips are only 1-5 ATS in their six MAC Conference games this season and I don't see why that sould improve tonight. The Zips are averaging 24.3 points per game in MAC Conference play on 380.0 total yards and 6.0 yards per play. However, Ohio's defense is as good as it gets in the conference and they are allowing only 14.7 points per conference game this season. On the ground, Akron have had problems running the ball, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry in MAC play. Ohio allows only 3.8 yards per carry in Conference play so I don't see Akron getting anywhere with the running attack. In the air, Luke Getsy is the best QB in the conference but he sorely misses some of last year's big playmakers (Dixon and Biggs). He is completing only 55.7% of his passes in conference play for 8.4 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown 6 interceptions against MAC opponents. Ohio's secondary is outstanding as they allow opposing MAC QB's to complete only 50.9% of their passes for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Akron's O-Line has had problems protecting Getsy and I see Ohio making some big time plays tonight. Akron is penalized 8.8 times per conference game while Ohio are penalized only 6.5 times per game. Akron won't show up tonight.
The Ohio Bobcats have not been to a Bowl Game since 1968 and let me tell you right now that Athens, Ohio is going nuts right about now. Not only are these fans at Peden Stadium going to be riled up for the Ohio State game on Saturday but they are also going to be riled for a chance of winning the MAC Conference Title for the first time in ages. This is unreal...Ohio is 7-3 on the year, they have locked up a spot in a Bowl Game for the first time in 38 years and they are one mere win away from reaching the MAC Conference Title Game. That's impressive because playing in the MAC is not easy but Frank Solich and his guys have done a great job against all their conference opponents with the exception of one road loss to Northern Illinois earlier this season. How can the Bobcats be favored by only this many points when they have swept the board against garbage teams. Sure they lost to Bowling Green but that was ages ago and they have since won five straight games over very worthy opponents in Kent State, Illinois, Western Michigan, Buffalo and Easter Michigan. Solich has brought a whole new attitude to this program and we are already seeing drastic changes (a Bowl bid). Ohio is averaging 24.3 points per conference game this season on 340.3 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. Akron's defense is allowing a whopping 25.5 points per game in MAC play this season on 333.7 total yards and 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, Ohio RB Kalvin McRae is by far the class of the MAC with Garrett Wolfe. He has rushed for 100+ yards six times this season and the Bobcats average 5.0 yards per carry on the year in MAC play. Akron's run defense has done a good job but the more they defend the run, the more Ohio will strike in the air. QB Austen Everson is a Senior and he knows how to win. He is completing 61.8% of his passes in conference play for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown only 5 interceptions in MAC play and been sacked only 7 times (great offensive line play). Akron have only two interceptions in six MAC Conference games and they are allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt in those games. I would to say that the teams are evenly matched but Frank Solich has these Bobcats playing like they have never played before and they should roll in this game.
Nobody cares about this game tonight because it doesn't come anywhere close to the same magnitude of the Big East game but I feel that oddsmakers were very very soft with their linemaking here regardless of the bad weather. Everyone seems to keep thinking Akron has a shot in this one but Ohio gets no respect whatsoever when it comes to Vegas odds. It's time for Frank Solich and his team to show the betting world and the MAC football world that they are ready for the Title Game and ready to go back to another Bowl Game. Don't be fooled by the recent string of MAC Conference underdogs (like the two we have had this week) because those were the perfect spot for a dog while this is not. Peden Stadium will be rocking with fans from both teams but I expect the Bobcat faithful to be losing their minds and going nuts for the big win. Defense matters in this game. No MAC dog tonight.
Trend of the Game: Ohio is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games that follow a straight up win.
Ohio 28, Akron 16
:cheers:
