MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Record: 54-41-2 (-58.10 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 44-33-2 ATS (-60.30 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-4 (-2.00 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-1 (+54.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 0-2 (-110.00 Units)
42-20-2 ATS (68%) in Football the last four weeks
I am down on the year because I missed on some of my big plays but overall I feel I have done a good job and will continue doing so. It felt good to take a day off from that game last night and now I am back with a huge play for the big win. Here goes another big wager for me. Please keep mind that I post units and post titles to my picks so you can know how much I like them. My big plays like this one make or break my year.
-------------------------------------
Thursday, November 2
Louisville Cardinals -1 (25 Units) ***MIDWEEK PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The West Virginia Mountaineers are ready for this game. They have been ready all year for this baby and have even had 12 days off to prepare for this thing. So we know they are ready but the question in my mind is...are they capable? I mean it's really nice and all to have beatup on all these different teams they have beat up on this season but I am still asking everyone the same question...who has West Virginia beat anyways? They definitely have one of the most dangerous offenses in the entire Country...that we know. But their defense has not been tested once this year. They Moutaineers beatup on Marshall (#57 offense in the Nation), Eastern Washington (Division I-AA), Maryland (#97 offense in the Nation), East Carolina (#44 offense in the Nation), Mississippi State (#105 offense in the Nation), Syracuse (#109 offense in the Nation) and Connecticut (#72 offense in the Nation). So yeah, it's nice to score 30 or 40 points a night but it also comes easy when the other team's offense isn't doing anything special to expose your overachieving defense. The Mountaineers defense is nowhere near as good as Louisville's no matter what the numbers this year say. So without a valid win in their win suitcase, the Moutaineers have a lot to prove tonight but once again I ask, are they capable? I don't think so. In their three road games this season, West Virginia is averaging 35.3 points per game on 398.0 total yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. Lousivlle's defense is tough as nails at home allowing only 17.3 points per game on 314.3 total yards and 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, we all know WVU have the best rushing attack in the Nation with Pat White and Steve Slaton. They average 243.3 rushing yards per road game but have to deal with a tough Cardinals D-Line that is allowing 99.3 rushing yards per home game on 3.0 yards per carry. Add in the power of Nate Harris and the Cards could do some damage. WVU does fumble 1.3 times per road game and Louisville force 2.3 fumbles per home game. In the air, QB Pat White can try what he wants to try but it won't matter. Louisville's pass defense has 12 sacks in three home game, they have yet to intercept a pass at home which I expect to change tonight seeing that White has thrown 4 interceptions on the road and oppposing QB's who come to Papa John's are completing only 45.5% of their passes. I am not saying West Virginia can't score points but what I am saying is that it might be hard for them to keep focus in this game once their slim shaddy defense is exposed.
The Louisville Cardinals have been seriously out of offensive groove the past 3-4 weeks but with 10-12 days off to prepare for this big game, I think Petrino has his guys ready to rock and roll. The Cards kicked off the season 4-0 ATS before losing RB Michael Bush and QB Brian Brohm and it seems that ever since Brohm went down and has since comeback, the Cardinals are having problems finding their potential National Championship groove. Well now is the time to show the football world that the line is bogus and that the Cardinals are for real. Now I know I said that WVU hasn't played against any good offensive teams and the case is the exact same for the Cardinals. However, the Cardinals have a veteran starters on their defense, unlike the Mountaineers, and I don't need them to prove anything to me because I have seen it in the past. I know the underdog has won the last four meetings but keep in mind that this is not a yearly rivalry (well it hasnt been) and the four games were played since 1989. So the numbers are a little bit skewed there and this is the first real revenge spot Louisville finds themselves in against the Moutaineers who won 46-44 in 3 OT's last season. This stadium is going to be rocking tonight and the offense better be ready. The Cardinals average 37.7 points per home game this season on 483.0 total yards of offense and 7.3 yards per play (which is a ton more than WVU on the road). WVU's defense has been good on the road allowing only 11.7 points per game and only 277.0 total yards per road game. On the ground, the Cardinals will rely on RB Kolby Smith to lead the way against the best D-Line in the Big East. They allow only 64.0 rushing yards per road game on 2.0 yards per carry but looking back on other games, Marhsall RB Ahmad Bradshaw could have had a 100 yard game if his team wasn't down so much, same goes for Stallworth on Miss State who had 5.0 yards per carry but his team went down by too much. I give all the respect to the WVU D-Line though and it will be tough for Smith to run tonight. However, QB Brian Brohm should look good tonight. He is completing 60.9% of his passes at home this season for a whopping 10.2 yards per pass attempt and only 1 interception. West Virginia's weakness, although it has not shown, is their secondary. WR's Mario Urruttia and Harry Douglas should be both be able to go deep because the Cards offensive line has done a good job giving the QB's time to throw and I expect a few big plays early to get the Cardinals offense in the groove they have been looking for the last three weeks. This should be a great game. The Cards are 2-0 SU and ATS since Petrino's arrival when it comes to playing against ranked teams at home.
Vegas is playing games with this line like they have been doing all week. Louisville should essentially be favored by a few more points but for some reason the public has bitten on the West Virginia hook Vegas threw in the water. That's fine because Thursday Nights are designed to expose overrated teams like West Virginia who have yet to play a valid opponent or play a meaningful game.
Trend of the Game: Louisville is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Louisville 17, West Virginia 14
:cheers:
2006 CFB ATS Record: 44-33-2 ATS (-60.30 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-4 (-2.00 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-1 (+54.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 0-2 (-110.00 Units)
42-20-2 ATS (68%) in Football the last four weeks
I am down on the year because I missed on some of my big plays but overall I feel I have done a good job and will continue doing so. It felt good to take a day off from that game last night and now I am back with a huge play for the big win. Here goes another big wager for me. Please keep mind that I post units and post titles to my picks so you can know how much I like them. My big plays like this one make or break my year.
-------------------------------------
Thursday, November 2
Louisville Cardinals -1 (25 Units) ***MIDWEEK PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The West Virginia Mountaineers are ready for this game. They have been ready all year for this baby and have even had 12 days off to prepare for this thing. So we know they are ready but the question in my mind is...are they capable? I mean it's really nice and all to have beatup on all these different teams they have beat up on this season but I am still asking everyone the same question...who has West Virginia beat anyways? They definitely have one of the most dangerous offenses in the entire Country...that we know. But their defense has not been tested once this year. They Moutaineers beatup on Marshall (#57 offense in the Nation), Eastern Washington (Division I-AA), Maryland (#97 offense in the Nation), East Carolina (#44 offense in the Nation), Mississippi State (#105 offense in the Nation), Syracuse (#109 offense in the Nation) and Connecticut (#72 offense in the Nation). So yeah, it's nice to score 30 or 40 points a night but it also comes easy when the other team's offense isn't doing anything special to expose your overachieving defense. The Mountaineers defense is nowhere near as good as Louisville's no matter what the numbers this year say. So without a valid win in their win suitcase, the Moutaineers have a lot to prove tonight but once again I ask, are they capable? I don't think so. In their three road games this season, West Virginia is averaging 35.3 points per game on 398.0 total yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. Lousivlle's defense is tough as nails at home allowing only 17.3 points per game on 314.3 total yards and 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, we all know WVU have the best rushing attack in the Nation with Pat White and Steve Slaton. They average 243.3 rushing yards per road game but have to deal with a tough Cardinals D-Line that is allowing 99.3 rushing yards per home game on 3.0 yards per carry. Add in the power of Nate Harris and the Cards could do some damage. WVU does fumble 1.3 times per road game and Louisville force 2.3 fumbles per home game. In the air, QB Pat White can try what he wants to try but it won't matter. Louisville's pass defense has 12 sacks in three home game, they have yet to intercept a pass at home which I expect to change tonight seeing that White has thrown 4 interceptions on the road and oppposing QB's who come to Papa John's are completing only 45.5% of their passes. I am not saying West Virginia can't score points but what I am saying is that it might be hard for them to keep focus in this game once their slim shaddy defense is exposed.
The Louisville Cardinals have been seriously out of offensive groove the past 3-4 weeks but with 10-12 days off to prepare for this big game, I think Petrino has his guys ready to rock and roll. The Cards kicked off the season 4-0 ATS before losing RB Michael Bush and QB Brian Brohm and it seems that ever since Brohm went down and has since comeback, the Cardinals are having problems finding their potential National Championship groove. Well now is the time to show the football world that the line is bogus and that the Cardinals are for real. Now I know I said that WVU hasn't played against any good offensive teams and the case is the exact same for the Cardinals. However, the Cardinals have a veteran starters on their defense, unlike the Mountaineers, and I don't need them to prove anything to me because I have seen it in the past. I know the underdog has won the last four meetings but keep in mind that this is not a yearly rivalry (well it hasnt been) and the four games were played since 1989. So the numbers are a little bit skewed there and this is the first real revenge spot Louisville finds themselves in against the Moutaineers who won 46-44 in 3 OT's last season. This stadium is going to be rocking tonight and the offense better be ready. The Cardinals average 37.7 points per home game this season on 483.0 total yards of offense and 7.3 yards per play (which is a ton more than WVU on the road). WVU's defense has been good on the road allowing only 11.7 points per game and only 277.0 total yards per road game. On the ground, the Cardinals will rely on RB Kolby Smith to lead the way against the best D-Line in the Big East. They allow only 64.0 rushing yards per road game on 2.0 yards per carry but looking back on other games, Marhsall RB Ahmad Bradshaw could have had a 100 yard game if his team wasn't down so much, same goes for Stallworth on Miss State who had 5.0 yards per carry but his team went down by too much. I give all the respect to the WVU D-Line though and it will be tough for Smith to run tonight. However, QB Brian Brohm should look good tonight. He is completing 60.9% of his passes at home this season for a whopping 10.2 yards per pass attempt and only 1 interception. West Virginia's weakness, although it has not shown, is their secondary. WR's Mario Urruttia and Harry Douglas should be both be able to go deep because the Cards offensive line has done a good job giving the QB's time to throw and I expect a few big plays early to get the Cardinals offense in the groove they have been looking for the last three weeks. This should be a great game. The Cards are 2-0 SU and ATS since Petrino's arrival when it comes to playing against ranked teams at home.
Vegas is playing games with this line like they have been doing all week. Louisville should essentially be favored by a few more points but for some reason the public has bitten on the West Virginia hook Vegas threw in the water. That's fine because Thursday Nights are designed to expose overrated teams like West Virginia who have yet to play a valid opponent or play a meaningful game.
Trend of the Game: Louisville is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
Louisville 17, West Virginia 14
:cheers:
