MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Record: 63-47-2 (-3.60 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 53-39-2 ATS (+5.20 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-8 (-8.80 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 6-5 (+15.50 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-2 (+26.50 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 2-4 (-86.50 Units)
My MAC PLAY OF THE YEAR was a big winner on Thursday Night (Ohio -4.5) and now it's time to make the big cash on one of the final weekends of the college football season. I have 9 big plays to go with this weekend as I am using up more and more of my bankroll for the season.
-------------------------------------
Saturday, November 18
Virginia Cavaliers +3 (15 Units)
The Miami Hurricanes have been through it all this season. They have had some of their players involved in a shootout, they have been in one of the ugliest bench clearing brawls college football has seen in recent years and they just recently lost a teammate who was gunned down after practice a few weeks back. What boggles my mind is how oddsmakers continue to slap the favorite tag on this team trying to lure naked eye bettors on to their side. Since Larry Coker has taken over as head coach, the Hurricanes have won 11, 12, 10, 8 and 9 in each of his five seasons. Well this season they are only 5-5 and the best they can finish is with 7 wins. That should tell you something because it tells me that the Hurricanes are just not the Hurricanes of old and Coker's time with the team had obviously come to an end. As much as the people behind the scenes don't want to say it, I think Coker is aware of what's going on and I don't know how a Miami team will motivated to win a game like this one after losing a close on to Maryland last week. This is going to be road game #4 in five weeks which is a ton of football to play away from home. Several players were back in Florida most of the week to attend Pata's funeral and most of them must be tired from all the travel, the emotion and the current status of the Miami football program. The Canes are averaging 17.2 points per game in ACC play this season on 276.8 total yards and 4.8 yards per play. Virginia's defense is very underrated as they have allowed only 15.3 points per game in ACC play on only 265.8 total yards and 4.5 yards per play. That's outstanding defense. On the ground, the Canes average only 96.7 rushing yards per ACC game for only 3.1 yards per carry while Virginia have consistently shutdown the run in ACC play allowing only 90.5 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry. In the air, QB Kirby Freeman is the new kid on the block. He has completed only 53.3% of his passes for 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Scott Stadium is one tough place to play as a road fav and the thousands in attendance will make it tough for the kid. Opposing ACC QB's have completed only 52.5% of their passes against Virginia for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The Cavaliers have 6 interceptions and 17 sacks in six ACC conference games while Miami's line has allowed 14 sacks in ACC play. The Canes have fumbled 12 times in conference play and have almost double the amount of penalties per game that Virginia has. The Canes average 8.0 penalties per ACC conference game for 68.5 yards per game while Virginia average only 4.8 penalties per conference game for only 34.2 yards per game. Let's all just accept the fact that Miami is just not that good this year.
The Virginia Cavaliers, in my opinion, should actually be favored in this game. I mean I can understand where the oddsmakers are coming from with this one but I still see tons of value in betting on Al Groh to have his guys give their top performance of the year. The Cavs have had 14 days off to recover from the 33-0 drubbing in Tallahassee back at the beginning of the month. Miami on the other hand is playing their fourth road game in five weeks and the legs won't be as fresh as they could be. Apart from the loss to the Noles earlier in the month, I did like what I saw from this very young and still learning team. They managed to beat NC State at home, they demolished and shutout the Tar Heels (who are now showing signs of life) and they almost beat Maryland but ended up blowing that game very late. Their 37-0 win over Duke was impressive as well because teams like Boston College, Miami, Florida State, Alabama, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt all failed to hold the Dukies scoreless in games this season. That should go a long way into showing many of you that the Cavs defense is the real deal and that they have really grown as a unit as the season has progressed. In their last six games on offense, the Cavs have managed to score 21+ points in four of those games which is quite the accomplishment for a team that scored a total of 43 points in their first four games this year. Virginia is averaging 17.8 points per ACC game this season on 275.3 total yards and 4.6 yards per play. Miami's defense has outstanding athletes playing for them and they have allowed only 16.0 points per game on 241.5 total yards and 4.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Cavs have run the ball well enough to average 119.2 rushing yards per conference game on 3.5 yards per carry but Miami have allowed ACC opponents to rush for only 53.5 yards per game on 1.8 yards per carry. In the air, QB Jameel Sewell has played well enough to compete and he is completing 58.7% of his passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt in ACC play. He has thrown only 5 INT's in six conference games and will have to work quickly in this one to avoid a ferocious Miami pass rush. The Cavaliers have done a much better job than other ACC teams when it comes to holding onto the ball. Virginia won't get to score much in this one but I expect them to cash in with FG's whenever they can which should keep them in the game.
Vegas set the line where everyone would keep riding the Miami train straight to hell. Sure they covered last week but that was fresh off the death of Pata. With all the travel between funeral and practice and north and south, the Canes are tired emotionally and physically.They have only covered three games all year on the spread and are 1-4 ATS the last two years as a road favorite. Al Groh is very well known for having his teams play their best football when they are home underdogs and with the long rest period for his team, this game should be no different. I like the Cavs a lot in this game.
Trend of the Game: Virginia is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
Virginia 19, Miami 14
Purdue Boilermakers -12.5 (10 Units)
The Indiana Hoosiers are currently 5-6 on the year needing only one tinsy weenie little win to reach their first Bowl Game since 1993. Now a lot of you keep talking about taking Indiana and the points because they need the Bowl win but are guys aware that Indiana has needed that one Bowl win the last two weeks and they failed to get it both times? Okay you can't blame them for the Michigan game but how about the game against Minnesota? If this was a team worthy of going to be a Bowl Game, they would have beat Minnesota in that game a few weeks ago and they wouldn't have lost it 63-26. I think it's time for everyone to kick themselves in the nuts and get their thoughts together here. Trying to clinch a bowl game for Indiana has been a disaster and they are 0-2 straight up and ATS in their two tries. Pathetic. I mean they have wins over Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State but looking at those three teams now, are those wins all that impressive? Terry Hoeppner is a great coach who has great things planned for this program but this is not their time and this is not their place to reach a Bowl Game. They blew that chance two weeks ago and better yet, they blew that chance by losing to I-AA Southern Illinois earlier in the year. The Hoosiers average 22.9 points per Big 10 game this season but have done it on only 332.0 total yards and only 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Marcus Thigpen and QB Kellen Lewis have done well but have they really? The running attack averages only 122.4 rushing yards per Big 10 game on only 3.5 yards per carry. Clearly this team can't play from far behind. Seeing that Purdue allow 5.3 yards per carry in conference play this year, Indiana should be able to run wild on them but it seems like the running attack has stalled more often that it has been successful. Once the Hoosiers get down early in the game, I expect them to struggle. Lewis is completing only 54.9% of his passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt in Big 10 play. He has thrown 7 interceptions in those games and been sacked 16 times. Purdue's pass defense is allowing Big 10 opponents to complete only 53.3% of their passes for only 6.5 yards per pass attempt and they have 15 sacks and 6 interceptions. Indiana has fumbled 19 times in Big 10 play and I expect them to lose another few today because Purdue are one of the best teams in the Big 10 when it comes to stripping the ball (22 forced fumbles in Big 10 play). There is your x-factor as to why the Hoosiers will not cover in this game.
The Purdue Boilermakers lost me some cash a few weeks back when they were shutout at home against Penn State and failed to cover the +3 football points. They then went on the road and scored 59 points in two games so I don't seem the coming home in front of the West Lafayette fans and scoring anything less than 50 points in this game. The Boilermakers have scored only 3 crappy points in their last two home games and it's time to give these fans something to cheer about. Indiana's defense is light years away from being close to the Wisconsin or Penn State defenses. Not counting the Wisconsin and Penn State home games, Purdue is 5-1 ATS in their last six games and they have played some outstanding football at times this year. This game is for the Old Oaken Bucket, a trophy that Purdue has won 8 of the last 9 years and a trophy that they are not about to give up for Indiana to take home and enjoy on their way to a Bowl Game. The Boilermakers are already Bowl Eligible, yes...but like I mentioned earlier, they owe the home fans a good showing on Seniors Day having scored only three points in their last two home games. Purdue is averaging 19.6 points per Big 10 game this season but average 387.6 total yards and 5.6 yards per play in those games. BAM! Indiana's defense is allowing a whopping 39.1 points per game in Big 10 play on 443.4 total yards and 7.0 yards per play. OUCH! On the ground, RB Kory Sheets is a firestarter. The Boilermakers average 4.2 yards per carry in Big 10 play and are up against an Indiana defense that allows 185.7 rushing yards per conference game on 5.1 yards per carry. Sheets should run for 150+ in this one. In the air, QB Curtis Painters is finally finding his groove and rythm. He is completing 6.6 yards per pass attempt in conference play this season and although he does get careless and throws a lot of interceptions, he has good protection and if he catches fire early, there is no stopping him. Indiana's defense have only 4 interceptions in seven conference games and only 4 sacks to go with that. They also allow 9.6 yards per pass attempt in Big 10 play and I see Painter passing for some 350+ yards in this game. This is going to be a nice tuneup game for their visit to Hawaii next week and then carry this team right into a Bowl Game after that. I expect fireworks from the home team in their home finale.
Get over it Indiana backers...this team had plenty of chances to clinch a Bowl Game but they failed. They can only blame themselves for losing to a I-AA team and for getting smashed in a clincher game against Minnesota. The Hoosiers are a fraud and you're all about to find out why. Purdue has a lot to prove to the home fans on Seniors Day, having scored only three points in their last two home games. Add the fact that this is a rivalry game and the Boilermakers should do enough to beat the Hoosiers.
Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 7-1 ATS the last eight meetings.
Purdue 35, Indiana 17
Vanderbilt Commodores +8 (20 Units)
No matter what anyone tells me about teams like Tennessee, there is only one thing I can tell you about this team and that's that they are fading fast. After battling all season long and turning out as one of the biggest surprises in the Country, the Vols have since lost two straight games and are looking at possibly getting upset in this game as well. I say that because sure QB Erik Ainge is back in business and his ankle should be better but as we have seen in the past, QB's like Ainge to take a big of time when it comes to shaking off rust and Coach Fulmer will probably call a very conservative game for him. Right now the goal for this team is to win their last two games and escape further injury as they would head into the Bowl season with a decent 9-3 record. Well...easier said than done. Both Vanderbilt and Kentucky have played surprisingly well this season in SEC play and both teams have pulled a few upsets here and there. I don't know if these Tennessee players remember or not but it was their loss to Vanderbilt last season that knocked them out of Bowl contention, something that hadn't happened in 17 years. It was also the first time they lost to Vandy in 25 years or something like that. The Vols average 26.0 points per SEC game this season on 300.2 total yards and 5.0 yards per play. However, Vandy's defense has been decent allowing 23.9 points per SEC game on 363.0 total yards and 5.8 yards per play. On the ground is where Tennessee is losing games. They average only 64.3 rushing yards per SEC game on only 2.6 yards per carry. Vanderbilt are allowing only 3.9 yards per carry in Conference play which makes it tougher for the Vols to get going in this one. In the air, QB Erik Ainge should be play. The Vols however are completing only 57.1% of their passes in Conference play for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Ainge does have a tendency to throw a lot of INT's and the problem here is that Vandy have picked off 8 passes against SEC opponents. Sure the Commodores allow huge plays through the air but they take risks and I like risk taking teams in close rivalry games like this one. The Commodores have recovered seven fumbles in SEC play this year and this young and opportunistic defense will be pumped up for a huge in-state game. Repeat of last year? Could sure as hell be!
The Vanderbilt Commodores lost it all when QB Jay Cutler graduated from the University last year but things are looking a little brighter since their season opening three straight losses. Vanderbilt was eliminated from Bowl game contention with their tight ass loss to Kentucky last week but coach Bobby Johnson has told them team all week that this is going to be their Bowl Game. This is the season finale for a Vanderbilt team that highly exceeded all expectations by going 4-7. Many experts picked them to win three game maximum but their road upset against Georgia gave them that fourth win. Their motivation for this one? Well you could start with the fact that winning five games this season wasn't in anyone's wildest dreams before the season started. With a win here, the Commodores would be at five wins matching their total when Cutler was here. Add the fact that these kids are confident against the Vols knowing they already beat them once like they did last year. Like I said earlier, coach Johnson officially declared this game a Bowl game for his Commodores so you can expect them to come out guns blazing. I have been impressed by this team as they are 6-4 ATS on the year and almost beat Arkansas at home, almost beat Alabama on the road, almost beat Ole Miss on the road, beat Georgia on the road and almost beat Florida at home a few weeks back. The Commodores average 17.3 points per game in SEC play for 365.0 total yards and 5.8 yards per play. That's 65 yards and 0.8 yards per play better than Tennessee's offense in SEC play. The Vols defense has allowed 25.0 points per SEC game this year on 358.2 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, Vandy has run the ball very well averaging 135.9 rushing yards on 4.3 yards per carry in SEC play. Tennessee is allowing a whopping 162.3 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per carry in SEC play so expect QB Chris Nickson to keep the Tennessee offense off the field most of the day with some QB draws. Nickson has been impressive this season rushing for 650 yards. He is completing 57.3% of his passes in SEC play for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. He is very good at avoiding sacks but does tend to get carless with the ball. As long as he can move out of the pocket and throw the ball away when pressure, Nickson should have a great game. Tennessee are allowing SEC opponents to average 7.3 yards per pass attempt which should definitely keep the Commodores in this one.
The line looks juicy for Tennessee backers but Ainge is going to be rusty and you really can't forget about Vandy's huge road win (first in 25 years) over Tennessee last year. As much as the Vols want revenge, this Vandy QB Nickson is a future star in the SEC and he is going to show us why today. Coach Johnson has officially declared this Vanderbilt's Bowl Game and the home crowd should be wild and ready wanting a repeat of last year's huge upset. Give it to me baby and give Vanderbilt a fake Bowl Game win here.
Trend of the Game: Vanderbilt is 5-1 ATS in their last six games that follow a straight up loss.
Vanderbilt 24, Tennessee 22
Northwestern Wildcats +3 (10 Units)
The Illinois Fighting Illini have been as Jekyll and Hyde as it gets this season. I mean you can count their wins over Michigan State, close losses to Indiana, Wisconsin and Ohio State as the good but you also can't forget about the losses to pathetic Syracuse, blowout losses to Rutgers and Iowa, loss to Indiana and the loss to a MAC team in Ohio. Ron Zook is a good coach in my opinion but that's one heck of a wild season and what better way to end that season than with a loss? The Illini were supposed to win anywhere between 4-7 games but in the end they have only won two games and the team as a whole has been a big disappointment. For whatever crazy reason, oddsmakers are making Illinois the favorites in this game tonight. They have been favored already three times this season and in all three games they have lost straight up (Indiana, Ohio and Purdue last week). I just don't see how this Illinois team would be excited to end their year fighting for the basement position in the Big 10 with Northwestern. Sure the road team is 14-4 ATS the last 18 meetings but Illinois is clearly looking for the season to finish and winning one more game doesn't mean all that much to this team seeing that they lost at home on Seniors Day last week. The Fighting Illini are averaging only 19.9 points per game in Big 10 play this year on 346.4 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. Northwestern's defense has allowed 32.0 points per Big 10 game this season and 429.7 total yards per game. So as much as I would like to think Illinois will score a lot and win, their defense is just as bad. On the ground, Illinois averages a whopping 188.6 rushing yards per Big 10 game on 5.0 yards per carry. Northwestern run defense is allowing 178.3 rushing yards per Big 10 game on 4.6 yards per carry but in a shootout game, how far will running get you? In the air, QB Juice Williams is completing only 39.5% of his passes in Big 10 play for 5.4 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown 10 interceptions in conference play. Northwestern's defense allows big yardage plays but they do have 8 interceptions against Big 10 opponents. Illinois have a big problem with fumbles as they have fumbled 19 times in Big 10 play while Northwestern have forced 12 fumbles. Illinois and the Juice will get their share of points, but a few big plays by Northwestern's defense will change this thing around quite quickly. These are to teams that don't take many penalties so I don't see that being a factor. The problem I have with Illinois here is that they have not won against Nothwestern in three years and their confidence level sucks right now.
The Northwestern Wildcats very emotional season is coming to an end today and the Wildcats are hoping to end it as they started it. Head Coach Randy Walker passed away prior to the start of the season and the NWU players dedicated their season to their fallen leader. In the opener, the Wildcats beat Miami Ohio 21-3 on the road while honoring their former coach. 10 games and a million tears later, the Wildcats have only three wins on the season and those came against Miami Ohio, Eastern Michigan and most recently a big win in Iowa. Illinois head coach Ron Zook was a very good friend of Randy Walker's. They played together at Miami Ohio and won some big games together. He was looking forward to this game because he had been waiting for another chance to beat his longtime friends. I am not saying that will effect this game but you never know with Zook, he may just go easy on the Wildcats, let them win and please the people of Evanston...yeah right...not happening. Anyways, the Wildcats have played some decent football as of late (not counting the loss to Ohio State). They did beat Iowa in Iowa City and they blew a massive lead at home against Michigan State, a loss that still hurts when most players are reminded of it. This being the last home game and last game of the season, Northwestern has already dedicated this one to Walker and they want to win one more for coach Randy. The Wildcats are averaging only 14.0 points per Big 10 game this season and they average only 296.6 total yards per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. Illinois have not played all that bad this season but turnovers have killed them. Their defense is allowing 27.0 points per Big 10 game this season but on only 306.7 total yards per game and only 4.5 yards per play. That would most definitely indicate that opposing teams almost always start with short field position. On the ground, RB Tyrell Sutton has 890 rushing yards on the season and needs 110 to break the 1000 mark. Illinois is pretty good against the run allowing only 3.3 yards per carry in Big 10 play but I expect Sutton to crash some numbers down their throats in the season finale. For whatever reason, Sutton has not been able to consistantly run off big chunks of yardage against Big 10 opponents but I have a feeling that could all change today. In the air, QB CJ Bacher and Mike Kafka might alternate in this game. NW has had problems moving the ball against Big 10 opponents this year and although things may not get easier in this game, the Wildcats should be able to make some big plays. The offensive line has been brutal all year but the key to beating Northwestern has been interceptions and Illinois have only 5 interceptions in 7 Big 10 conference games this season. The Illini don't allow much yardage in the air and they have done a good job shutting things down. However, like I said, Northwestern will be blessed with good starting position on almost all their drives in this game and even if we need overtime to win and cover the spread, there is no way that the Wildcats and their Seniors are going to lose this tribute game for Randy Walker. Both the offense and defense is laced with Seniors and this is the biggest game of their collegiate careers for several different reasons. The Wildcats have won this game the last three years and I see them winning it again to make it four straight.
The line in this game is quite odd because Illinois has not won as a favorite this year while the oddsmakers are completely getting lost with the Big 10 lines this week for obvious reasons. Northwestern deserves to be favored because of the Randy Walker tribute factor and anyone backing Illinois in this one has serious issues. The Wildcats are overall a more talented team than Illinois and I have no doubt that they are going to make the big plays when they have to. Bad line means money for me.
Trend of the Game: Northwestern is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games that follow a double digit home loss.
Northwestern 25, Illinois 22
Oklahoma State Cowboys +6 (25 Units)
The Okie State stillwater drinking Cowboys are the real deal this year and I had no doubt in my mind when I saw this line being higher than 3 that I was going to smash it. Oklahoma State have done an outstanding job for Mike Gundy in his second year as head coach. Things caught fire right away when they beat the crap out of Missouri State to open the year, kick the crap out of Arkansas State and kicked the crap out of Florida Atlantic. One thing you have to understand about this team is that they are relentless and they quite easily resemble what could be considered one of the most lethal offenses in the Country. Then came the very sketchy losses to Houston and Kansas State but the Cowboys have since rebounded from those games and beat Kansas on the road, almost beat Texas A&M at home, wiped the floor with a very good Nebraska team at home and most recently demolished Baylor to bits and pieces. This rivalry goes back...way back and the last time Okie State won two straight games was more than 60 years ago. Okay so call me crazy for thinking they are going to win this game like they won last year's but why not? Nobody expected them to win seven games when the season started so winning one of the last two against TT and Oklahoma is a must. With that many guys back from last year on offense, the Cowboys shouls have a good time moving the ball here. Okie State is averaging 36.5 points per game in Big 12 play on a whopping 417.0 total yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. BANG BANG! Texas Tech's defense has taken several steps back this season and are allowing 30.1 points per game in the Big 12 on 344.0 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Cowboys are almost impossible to stop. They average 224.2 rushing yards per conference game on 5.7 yards per carry while the Red Raiders are allowing 153.1 rushing yards per Big 12 game on 3.9 yards per carry. The running attack should set things up nicely for QB Bobby Reid to air some balls out. In the air, Reid is completing 58.7% of his passes against Big 12 opponents for a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt. He has great line protection, getting sacked only 9 times in Big 12 play. Texas Tech do generate pressure but not enough to matter. They are allowing a whopping 7.1 yards per pass attempt against conference opponents this season and all their success has come on forcing fumbles. Problem with that is that Oklahoma State have lost only 5 fumbles against Big 12 teams all season and they do tend to make big plays instead of vice versa. Time for the Cowboys to get on their high horse and make some noise in the Big 12 race for Bowl position. The Cowboys have also been a very disciplined team this season in Big 12 play averaging only 6.2 penalties per game while Texas Tech lack complete discipline and average 8.6 penalties per conference game. COWBOY TIME BABY!
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are not the same Red Raiders of years past. I don't know if it's because they don't have a Senior QB or because their defense has not been able to stop any half decent team but something is not right. It has always been a favorite play of mine to take the Red Raiders in their final home game in Lubbock but that's probably because their QB's and RB's are always Seniors who give it their all one last time at home. This year, the QB is not a Senior so who knows what his level of intensity will be and who knows if he can keep up with Oklahoma State. The Red Raiders were supposed to win 9 or 10 games against this season but right now they stand at 6-5 with a chance to win a game #7. Seeing that this season has been such a big disappointment, the Red Raiders probably won't care as much as if they were going for win #10 because they know that this year's team is just not as talented as last year's team. In all their big home games this season (two of them), the Red Raiders have failed to impress. Sure coming within four points of beating rivals Texas is an accomplishment but losing to Missouri by two touchdowns + at home is not acceptable. So where have the impressive wins been by Texas Tech? I see one in College Station earlier this year and I don't see any others after that. The Red Raiders do average 30.0 points per game and 445.9 total yards for 6.7 yards per play in Big 12 play this season but can their defense keep up with the offense being on and off the field so quickly? I mean Okie State can't stop anyone either as shown in their 31.0 points per game allowed in the Big 12 on 410.3 total yards and 6.1 yards per play. On the ground, Texas Tech are as stubborn as it gets and run only 15 running plays per Big 12 game this season. Those 15 runs average out to 66 yards but in order to beat Okie State you need to run more than that. I say that because the Cowboys allow 4.7 yards per carry in Big 12 play this season and they usually can't stop high profile backs. In the air, QB Graham Harrell has been outstanding in Big 12 play, completing almost 70% of his passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt but he has thrown 8 interceptions against conference opponents. The Cowboys allow big time yardage in the air this season but they do bring significant blitz packages on opposing QB's which could force Harrell into some game changing INT's. The Cowboys have 18 sacks in six Big 12 conference games and some of that pressure will do this defense some good if they are up to it. Texas Tech have fumbled the ball 14 times in Big 12 play this season which is not good because Oklahoma State have forced 13 fumbles in only six conference games. Like I said, this game will come down to turnovers and I give the advantage to the Cowboys who will benefit from some big TT mistakes.
Vegas has set the trap quite nicely because winning by seven looks easy for Texas Tech against a very bad Okie State defense. The catch? Texas Tech have not played well against winning teams at home, losing by two touchdowns to Missouri and losing to the Longhorns. This is another big home test for the Red Raiders but I am not so sure that this underachieving bunch will be ready for this game. They were a -7 against Missouri at home earlier in the year and it looked too easy but once again the defense is not the same as it used to be and without good defense, the Red Raiders are quite useless.
Trend of the Game: Texas Tech is 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Oklahoma State 34, Texas Tech 30
Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (75 Units)
The Big one is here. I would love to have a 20 page writeup as to why this game is going to go down the way it's going to go down but I don't have time to argue with backers from both sides who will more likely than not start telling me that I am wrong here and wrong there. Okay, now onto the good stuff. The Michigan Wolverines are now one of four undefeated teams left in college football this season. My big question mark heading into this game is the strength of the Michigan schedule as well as the way this team performed in their conference games this season. I mean how many times this year did we see Ohio State kill opposing teams by 21+ points? Quite a few is my guess but once again, the same can't be said about Michigan. The Wolverines beat Vanderbilt by only 20 points in their opener, they beat Wisconsin by only 14 points (which does look quite impressive right now), they beat a pathetic Minnesota team by only 14 points on the road, they beat a mediocre Penn State team by only seven points on the road, they beat a horrendous Michigan State team by only 18 points at home, they beatr an pathetic Iowa team by only 14 points at home, they beat a horrendous Northwestern team by only 14 points at home and they barely beat Ball State (MAC Conference? HAHA) at home. I mean apart from the win over Notre Dame, those are some pretty unimpressive performances...every one of those teams was able to compete with the Wolverines. Michigan is averaging 24.9 points per game in Big 10 play this season (12.7 less than Ohio State) on 355.4 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. Nothing to be excited about. Ohio State is allowing only 7.6 points per game in Big 10 play on 237.0 total yards and 4.0 yards per play. On the ground, you can argue all night that RB Mike Hart is going to have a good game but the bottom line is that both teams can stop the run. Ohio State allow only 2.3 yards per carry in Big 10 play while Michigan runs a lot but runs for only 4.0 yards per carry. Ohio State's running attack is far more effective. In the air, QB Chad Henne is completing 64.2% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt in Big 10 play. He has been sacked only 10 times and thrown only 6 interceptions in those games. Ohio State's defense have picked off 15 passes in Big 10 play and are allowing only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Unlike Michigan's secondary, the Buckeyes know how to make big time plays and that will be the difference in this game. I am calling for a Buckeyes pick 6 at some point in this football game. Michigan gets exposed!
The Ohio State Buckeyes remind me a lot of the Texas Longhorns of 2005. I say that because the 2005 National Champion Longhorns almost never had an off game all season and they won almost all their games ATS (10-2 ATS). The Against The Spread mark is huge when it comes to determining true champions because it means that no matter what the test this season, Ohio State has risen to the challenge and they have answered the oddsmakers call. The Buckeyes are currently sitting at 9-2 ATS on the year and if all goes well, they should finish with the 10-2 ATS record. I was talking a lot about Michigan's mediocre efforts this year well let's look at Ohio State's performance. They won by 23 points against NIU to open the season, they beat Texas by 17 points in what is being called an ass whipping and a half, they beat Cincinnati by 30, they beat Penn State by 22 points (Michigan beat them by 7), they beat Iowa by 21 points, they beat Bowling Green by 28 points, they beat Michigan State by 31 points, they beat Indiana by 41 points, they beat Minnesota by 44 points (Michigan struggled against the Gophers) and they beat Northwestern by 44 points. TRUE SIGNS OF A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM. Now you're telling me that they are going to letup in this game? Ohio State is averaging 37.6 points per Big 10 game this season on 392.4 total yards and 5.9 yards per play. Michigan's defense has been good allowing only 8.9 points per game in Big 10 play but how will they handle all the three and outs by the offense? They have allowed only 3.9 yards per play in Conference games this season but Ohio State is the best they have seen by about a million miles. On the ground, Ohio State run a more effective game than Michigan, rushing for 202.4 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. So it doesn't really matter which mediocre Big 10 backs the Wolverines have stopped because they won't be able to stop Pittman and Smith. In the air, Troy Smith can't lose the Heisman at this point. He is completing 62.5% of his passes in Big 10 play for 7.9 yards per pass attempt and has thrown only 4 interceptions in seven conference games (Henne has thrown 6). He has also been sacked only 6 times so Michigan's pass rush won't be so effective. With WR's Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez running all over the place in this game, Michigan might get caught on one or two deep balls. It doesn't happen often but it does happen. Big plays are going to be the key in this game and I give the advantage to Ginn and company. If Ohio State doesn't steamroll the Wolverines, I don't know jack about college football.
Through the year I keep my own little set of rankings based on performance, strength of schedule and a few other variables. The program ranked teams from 1 to 119 and I would like to share the results with you guys. As of right now, Ohio State is obviously the number one team because of overall performances this season. Michigan on the other hand is ranked #9 believe it or not and quite frankly I completely agree. They have not been tested this season and teams like Texas, Louisville, West Virginia and USC would most likely wipe the floor with the Wolverines. I don't care what anyone says, when Michigan loses this game they should drop right out of the TOP 10 because who the hell have they beat this year? Ohio State have a huge win over Texas attached to their name while the Wolverines beat teams that belong nowhere near the TOP 10 in College Football and that includes those bogus Notre Dame clowns. The Wolverines will be exposed as big time frauds in this game and before you start chewing my head off for those comments, let's let the game play itself out and see you in the Ohio State Buckeyes party zone once it's all said and done. GO BUCKEYES BABY and please Corso be on the Wolverines!
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings.
Ohio State 24, Michigan 15
Kansas Jayhawks -2.5 (15 Units)
The general public and most of the betting world will probably be completely ignoring games being played at the same time as the big one but that's not a reason for us not to have some side cash on games like this. The Kansas State Wildcats were being called a Bowl team before the season started and sure enough, they are heading back to a Bowl Game for the first time since 2003. However, coming off a three point win at home against Texas last weekend, I have a feeling the Wildcats are going to be all partied out for this game and as much as Ron Prince would like to have their full attention in order for them to finish with 8 wins, you just can't hide behind the letdown situation. Beating a National Title contender like Texas is as big as it gets in Manhattan. Seeing that the two schools are in the same state, the Wildcats stayed home all week, went to school and practiced. However, you and me both know that they had that win on their minds all week. How quickly most of us have forgotten about the Wildcats road play this season. This is the same Kansas State team that lost to Baylor, yes Baylor, by a score of 17-3 on the road. The same Wildcats team that lost to Missouri in their second road game of the year. I do have to give them credit for their current three game win streak though. Kansas State is averaging 24.0 points per game in the Big 12 this season on 345.6 total yards and only 5.6 yards per play. Kansas have been shaky all season on defense allowing 27.2 points per Big 12 game on 414.8 total yards and 5.9 yards per play. On the ground, Kansas State are averaging 125.1 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. However, the Kansas rush defense has been good allowing only 120.8 rushing yards per Big 12 game this season on only 3.7 yards per carry. In the air, QB Josh Freeman has been a breath of fresh air for this team but K-State QB's are completing only 54.4% of their passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt in Big 12 play. The offensive line has allowed 17 sacks in conference play and that's bad because Kansas have a great pass rush. The Jayhakws allow opposing Big 12 QB's to complete only 54.0% of their passes this season. Sure they allow some big yardage plays in the air but they make up for it with ball hawking d-backs who have 6 interceptions in conference play. The Jayhawks defense has also forced 15 fumbles in only six conference games this season. As much as Kansas State has had success here in the past, thier party days are over because they are going down hard here.
The Kansas Jayhawks were being called a team with 'an excellent shot at reaching their 3rd Bowl Game in 4 years' before the season started but they have been put in a tough spot where they need to win one of their last two games to make it to the Bowl Season. Ironically enough, this is the winnable game of the two games left for Kansas and they really need to win this for the 40+ thousand in attendance who got a nice taste of the Bowl season in 2005. It's ironic because it comes against their biggest rivals in Kansas State and the Jayhawks have had a hellish time shaking off the curse of beating the Wildcats the last 12 years. In fact, Kansas is only 1-11 in their last 12 games against their cross-state which is probably why so many people are on Kansas State for this game. I don't buy it. Hardly ever is a Bowl Game on the line when you are playing at home. Kansas have been both impressive and pathetic at the same time this season. Their wins against South Florida, Colorado and Iowa State were all impressive but they won't mean much if the Jayhawks can't get that win #6. Losses to Toledo, Nebraska, Okie State, Baylor and Texas A&M don't make the naked eye too confident but you have to trust Mark Mangino. The Jayhawks average 29.7 points per game in Big 12 action this year and have done it on 392.2 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. The Kansas State defense is allowing 25.6 points per Big 12 game this season and they have done it by allowing 367.1 total yards and 5.4 yards per play. Not that bad but not that good either. On the ground, RB Jon Cornish will be the difference maker. He is at 1100+ rushing yards on the year and is playing his last home game ever. The Jayhawks average a very nice 179.0 rushing yards per conference game on 4.7 yards per carry. Kansas State can't stop the run as they allow 149.1 rushing yards per conference game for 4.0 yards per carry. I expect Cornish to go out with a bang and that includes 150+ yards and 2 touchdowns to end his career. This kid (Canadian) can make big plays. In the air, QB Kerry Meier has been decent completing 54.4% of his passes in Big 12 play for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. He has a tendency to make too many stupid throws but with Cornish tearing things up on the ground, life should be a lot easier for Meier. The Kansas State defense is allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt in Big 12 play this season and although their pass rush is ferocious and will most certainly affect Meier, the running game should keep things honest enough to win. Kansas State have only 3 interceptions in seven conference games this season and they don't have enough big playmakers on defense to make Kansas pay for blunders. This is a great chance for this Kansas team to reach a Bowl Game and I have no doubt in my mind that they can get it done with some powerful running and a few big plays through the air.
Vegas has set this line hoping that everyone and their mom's jump on the Kansas State train after their big win over Texas last week. The Jayhawks need this game about 20 times more than Kansas State does and they are eager to break their big time 12 year jinx against their cross state rivals. The Longhorn hangover will be in full effect for this game and I just don't see Kansas State making enough big plays to win such a big game for the Kansas program. Don't get caught here guys...Jayhawks are the play.
Trend of the Game: The Favorite is 10-1 ATS the last 11 meetings.
Kansas 30, Kansas State 23
Wake Forest Demon Deacons PK (50 Units)
The Virginia Tech Hokies were supposed to be a National Title contender before the season started but they are 8-2 on the year and clearly out of the Title picture because of some bad losses. Not a big deal to us but it's a big deal to Frank Beamer and his guys. Had it not been for losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College in their mid-season, Virginia Tech would currently be ranked in the TOP 5 in the Country and we would be talking about these guys possible playing for the Nationa Title. Not the case. Apart from their National TV win against Clemson, I have not been all that impressed or convince by the Hokies this season. Beating teams like Duke, Cincinati, Southern Miss, Kent State, North Carolina and Northeaster just isn't my thing. Their other big game was against the Hurricanes of Miami and they won that 17-10 but I mean this just isn't the same Hurricanes team as before. Now the Hokies have to walk into Winston-Salem knowing they virtually have no chance of winning or playing for the ACC Title this year. There is zero motivation for this young Frank Beamer team to win and although it's only Wake Forest and Virginia to finish their year, this is definitely an upset in the making. The Hokies have had their fair share of problems this year whether it be poor QB play or bad running room but they haven't played against good enough teams to expose those weaknesses. They average 23.7 points per game in ACC play this season but those points come on only 274.2 total yards of offense per game and a pathetic 4.3 yards per play. Wake Forest have done a tremendous job on defense allowing only 15.7 points per conference game on only 344.7 total yards and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB Brandon Ore is one of the most underrated backs in College football but the Hokies average only 90.2 rushing yards per ACC game this season on only 2.8 yards per carry. Wake Forest is allowing only 99.7 rushing yards per ACC game this season for only 3.1 yards per carry so all is in the hands of QB Sean Glennon. The sophomore has been mediocre at best, completing 54.5% of his passes in ACC play for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked 15 times in six games and has thrown 5 interceptions in those games. Wake Forest tend to allow big plays in the air but they contain it to only 6.9 yards per pass attempt in conference play this season. More impressively is the fact that they have 12 interceptions in six conference games and they have forced 13 fumbles. This Wake Forest defense is playing with an extra jump in their step and they will force turnovers in this game. Virginia Tech gets exposed as a fradulous 8 win team.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have not had a season go like this for something like 40-50 years. Who the hell knew before the season started that we would now be talking about the Deacons playing for the ACC Title in a couple of weeks if all goes well? All they have to do is win this game, win the next game and they have it all locked and they also would have an 11-1 season and probably looking at a spot in the BCS Bowls. Now if I can recall, everyone was calling for them to get to a Bowl Game this season (first time since 2002 and only second time since 1999) but nobody and I mean nobody was talking about the BCS picture and quite possibly the National Title picture if they can win these last two games and finish as a one loss team. It's just unreal. I mean sure their schedule wasn't the strongest around but recent wins over Boston College and Florida State have most certainly solidified this team as a contender and I am loving every minute of it. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games and oddsmakers just don't want to give them the respect they want or deserve. Wake Forest is a big fat 6-0 ATS on the season when pegged as the underdog and it's quite incredible that Vegas would label as dogs when they are at home on a Saturday night under the damn National TV lights. The Deacons are averaging 21.8 points per ACC game this season and have done it on only 275.5 total yards per game but 5.1 yards per play. Virginia Tech's defense will always be one of the best in the ACC which is why Wake has to work for each and every yard. The Hokies allow only 14.5 points per game in Conference play on only 233.2 total yards per game and 4.0 yards per play. Now that's some defense. On the ground, the Deacons average 126.5 rushing yards per ACC game on only 3.7 yards per carry which isn't bad news because VTech are allowing only 3.1 yards per carry in conference games this season. In the air, freshman QB Riley Skinner has been outstanding. He is completing a whopping 71.4% of his passes in ACC games this season for 7.5 yards per pass attempt and has thrown only 3 interceptions against ACC opponents. Virginia Tech have some very athletic and agressive DB's who allow only 5.0 yards per pass attempt so things won't come easy for the composed youngster. If he can have enough time to complete some short yardage passes, the Deacons will have a shot in this game. Wake Forest has been a very well disciplined team all season long and they are the real deal. VTech have fumbled 14 times in ACC play while Wake have fumbled only 8 times. The Hokies defense is agressive but they don't force many fumbles which could be the key to this game.
We all know this is going to be a low-scoring affaire but the question in the end will be...WHO CAN MAKE PLAYS ON OFFENSE? The way I see it, even though Riley Skinner is a new QB, he is much more composed and has much more rythm that Sean Glennon. I give the defensive advantgae to Virginia Tech on pure talent but when it comes to heart and determination, you can't say that this Wake Forest team doesn't win that department. The crowd at Groves Stadium is going to be unreal and it seems like this new turf is really helping this team out. A lot of people are on the Hokies but who the hell wouldn't want to be on a 6-0-1 ATS gravy train this week with conference implications on the line? CASH MONEY BABY!
Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs of 0.5 to 3 points.
Wake Forest 21, Virginia Tech 16
UCLA Bruins +5.5 (25 Units)
The UCLA Bruins were rated as one of the bottom feeder teams in the PAC 10 before this season started. This was tapped as a rebuilding year for Karl Dorrell's team but the catch 22 to that was that Dorrell needs a winning season to keep his job and he has that on the line tonight. The Bruins are currently 5-5 on the year and they need one more win to make this a successful season which would be reaching a Bowl Game for the fifth straight year. We all know there is virtually no chance of them beating USC in two weeks so this is do or die for the Bruins and I have no doubt in my mind that they will be ready. I can't say I am too impressed with the way this young team has played in Pac 10 play this season but I did see enough bright spots to know that they can definitely win this game. The Bruins had big conference wins over Stanford and Arizona. However, they lost their games against Washington, Oregon, Washington, California and Oregon State. They did show signs of brilliance by pounding 24 points in against California on the road and I was impressed by their near win in South Bend earlier this year. There's just something about this team that seems to see them play well when they have to. I expect one of those today. The Bruins are averaging 23.0 points per game in PAC 10 play this season on 326.0 total yards and 5.1 yards per play this season. The Arizona State Sun Devils are allowing 29.9 points per game in PAC 10 play this season for 329.1 total yards and 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, the Bruins are averaging 125.4 rushing yards per conference game on 4.1 yards per carry which is pretty good. The Sun Devils are allowing 138.0 rushing yards per conference game on 4.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Pat Cowan is still the starter for Dorrell and the reviews for this kid are mixed. He is completing 55.4% of his passes in PAC 10 play for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. He has great offensive line protection this season so the mistakes should stop soon. He has thrown something like 7 interceptions in PAC 10 play but the Sun Devils don't have any big playmakers on their defensive side of the ball. ASU has done a good job of shutting opposing passing attacks down but they get killed on the ground and the Bruins don't have a problem with playing the field position and clock control game in this one. As long as the Bruins stay out of penalty troubles which has been their achilles heel, they should be in for a big upset win that catapults them into Bowl eligibility.
The Arizona State Sun Devils, much like the UCLA Bruins, are probably fighiting and playing for their coaches job. Dirk Koetter was supposed to lead this team to much bigger things than a measly 6-4 record on the season. It all started right before the season when he sent QB Sam Keller packing and made QB Rudy Carpenter the number one guy. Koetter has been here for six years now and like I mentioned earlier, this was the year where Arizona State was supposed to win at least 8 or 9 games and not a pathetic maximum of seven games like the 2005 edition. The Sun Devils kicked off conference action by getting smoked courtesy of California and Oregon. Then came the close loss to USC which at the time was impressive until the Trojans lost against Oregon State. So that means that the Sun Devils, much like UCLA, don't have many credible PAC 10 conference wins this season. Wins over Washington, Stanford and Washington State don't really tell me much because neither one of those teams has done enough damage to gain credibility. I do have to hand it to the Sun Devils though...they are 6-3 ATS on the year and have done a great job when it comes to covering bogus spreads. However, this is another bogus spread but this time the other way around. It's also a well known fact that the underdog does well in this series which totally goes against the Sun Devils as a rather large favorite. Arizona State is averaging 25.1 points per game in the PAC 10 this season but they have done so on only 337.1 total yards per game and only 5.2 yards per play. UCLA's defense is definitely their strong point as they allow only 21.1 points per game in PAC 10 play on only 321.1 total yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, Arizona State average a nice 170.1 rushing yards per conference game on 4.3 yards per carry but are up against a massive defensive line that is allowing only 100.1 rushing yards per game and only 3.0 yards per carry in PAC 10 games this season. Forget about running the ball ASU, it won't work. In the air, QB Rudy Carpenter is completing only 52.3% of his passes in PAC 10 play this season for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked a whopping 25 times in seven conference games which is bad news because UCLA's pass rush has 18 sacks in seven conference games and Carpenter is going to have to find a way to avoid losing big yards. He needs to be careful though because he has thrown 8 interceptions in PAC 10 play while the Bruins have picked off 8 passes in conference play. The combination of a slowed down rushing attack and a lack of time for Carpenter to throw are going to result in several disasters for the Sun Devils offense in this game and I see them losing straight up.
In a game where the one team is favored only because they are at home, you have to take a close look at the underdog. I say that because the dog has traditionally covered a lot of games in this series, yet the public is completely ignoring that and writting off the Bowl hungry Bruins. I love UCLA as an underdog in this spot because they have covered three of their last four games and this game means a lot more to them than it does to Arizona State. There is no way this game is not decided by a field goal or less and whoever thinks the spread is accurtate, you have issues.
Trend of the Game: UCLA is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
UCLA 26, Arizona State 23
:cheers:
2006 CFB ATS Record: 53-39-2 ATS (+5.20 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-8 (-8.80 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 6-5 (+15.50 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-2 (+26.50 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 2-4 (-86.50 Units)
My MAC PLAY OF THE YEAR was a big winner on Thursday Night (Ohio -4.5) and now it's time to make the big cash on one of the final weekends of the college football season. I have 9 big plays to go with this weekend as I am using up more and more of my bankroll for the season.
-------------------------------------
Saturday, November 18
Virginia Cavaliers +3 (15 Units)
The Miami Hurricanes have been through it all this season. They have had some of their players involved in a shootout, they have been in one of the ugliest bench clearing brawls college football has seen in recent years and they just recently lost a teammate who was gunned down after practice a few weeks back. What boggles my mind is how oddsmakers continue to slap the favorite tag on this team trying to lure naked eye bettors on to their side. Since Larry Coker has taken over as head coach, the Hurricanes have won 11, 12, 10, 8 and 9 in each of his five seasons. Well this season they are only 5-5 and the best they can finish is with 7 wins. That should tell you something because it tells me that the Hurricanes are just not the Hurricanes of old and Coker's time with the team had obviously come to an end. As much as the people behind the scenes don't want to say it, I think Coker is aware of what's going on and I don't know how a Miami team will motivated to win a game like this one after losing a close on to Maryland last week. This is going to be road game #4 in five weeks which is a ton of football to play away from home. Several players were back in Florida most of the week to attend Pata's funeral and most of them must be tired from all the travel, the emotion and the current status of the Miami football program. The Canes are averaging 17.2 points per game in ACC play this season on 276.8 total yards and 4.8 yards per play. Virginia's defense is very underrated as they have allowed only 15.3 points per game in ACC play on only 265.8 total yards and 4.5 yards per play. That's outstanding defense. On the ground, the Canes average only 96.7 rushing yards per ACC game for only 3.1 yards per carry while Virginia have consistently shutdown the run in ACC play allowing only 90.5 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry. In the air, QB Kirby Freeman is the new kid on the block. He has completed only 53.3% of his passes for 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Scott Stadium is one tough place to play as a road fav and the thousands in attendance will make it tough for the kid. Opposing ACC QB's have completed only 52.5% of their passes against Virginia for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The Cavaliers have 6 interceptions and 17 sacks in six ACC conference games while Miami's line has allowed 14 sacks in ACC play. The Canes have fumbled 12 times in conference play and have almost double the amount of penalties per game that Virginia has. The Canes average 8.0 penalties per ACC conference game for 68.5 yards per game while Virginia average only 4.8 penalties per conference game for only 34.2 yards per game. Let's all just accept the fact that Miami is just not that good this year.
The Virginia Cavaliers, in my opinion, should actually be favored in this game. I mean I can understand where the oddsmakers are coming from with this one but I still see tons of value in betting on Al Groh to have his guys give their top performance of the year. The Cavs have had 14 days off to recover from the 33-0 drubbing in Tallahassee back at the beginning of the month. Miami on the other hand is playing their fourth road game in five weeks and the legs won't be as fresh as they could be. Apart from the loss to the Noles earlier in the month, I did like what I saw from this very young and still learning team. They managed to beat NC State at home, they demolished and shutout the Tar Heels (who are now showing signs of life) and they almost beat Maryland but ended up blowing that game very late. Their 37-0 win over Duke was impressive as well because teams like Boston College, Miami, Florida State, Alabama, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt all failed to hold the Dukies scoreless in games this season. That should go a long way into showing many of you that the Cavs defense is the real deal and that they have really grown as a unit as the season has progressed. In their last six games on offense, the Cavs have managed to score 21+ points in four of those games which is quite the accomplishment for a team that scored a total of 43 points in their first four games this year. Virginia is averaging 17.8 points per ACC game this season on 275.3 total yards and 4.6 yards per play. Miami's defense has outstanding athletes playing for them and they have allowed only 16.0 points per game on 241.5 total yards and 4.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Cavs have run the ball well enough to average 119.2 rushing yards per conference game on 3.5 yards per carry but Miami have allowed ACC opponents to rush for only 53.5 yards per game on 1.8 yards per carry. In the air, QB Jameel Sewell has played well enough to compete and he is completing 58.7% of his passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt in ACC play. He has thrown only 5 INT's in six conference games and will have to work quickly in this one to avoid a ferocious Miami pass rush. The Cavaliers have done a much better job than other ACC teams when it comes to holding onto the ball. Virginia won't get to score much in this one but I expect them to cash in with FG's whenever they can which should keep them in the game.
Vegas set the line where everyone would keep riding the Miami train straight to hell. Sure they covered last week but that was fresh off the death of Pata. With all the travel between funeral and practice and north and south, the Canes are tired emotionally and physically.They have only covered three games all year on the spread and are 1-4 ATS the last two years as a road favorite. Al Groh is very well known for having his teams play their best football when they are home underdogs and with the long rest period for his team, this game should be no different. I like the Cavs a lot in this game.
Trend of the Game: Virginia is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
Virginia 19, Miami 14
Purdue Boilermakers -12.5 (10 Units)
The Indiana Hoosiers are currently 5-6 on the year needing only one tinsy weenie little win to reach their first Bowl Game since 1993. Now a lot of you keep talking about taking Indiana and the points because they need the Bowl win but are guys aware that Indiana has needed that one Bowl win the last two weeks and they failed to get it both times? Okay you can't blame them for the Michigan game but how about the game against Minnesota? If this was a team worthy of going to be a Bowl Game, they would have beat Minnesota in that game a few weeks ago and they wouldn't have lost it 63-26. I think it's time for everyone to kick themselves in the nuts and get their thoughts together here. Trying to clinch a bowl game for Indiana has been a disaster and they are 0-2 straight up and ATS in their two tries. Pathetic. I mean they have wins over Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State but looking at those three teams now, are those wins all that impressive? Terry Hoeppner is a great coach who has great things planned for this program but this is not their time and this is not their place to reach a Bowl Game. They blew that chance two weeks ago and better yet, they blew that chance by losing to I-AA Southern Illinois earlier in the year. The Hoosiers average 22.9 points per Big 10 game this season but have done it on only 332.0 total yards and only 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Marcus Thigpen and QB Kellen Lewis have done well but have they really? The running attack averages only 122.4 rushing yards per Big 10 game on only 3.5 yards per carry. Clearly this team can't play from far behind. Seeing that Purdue allow 5.3 yards per carry in conference play this year, Indiana should be able to run wild on them but it seems like the running attack has stalled more often that it has been successful. Once the Hoosiers get down early in the game, I expect them to struggle. Lewis is completing only 54.9% of his passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt in Big 10 play. He has thrown 7 interceptions in those games and been sacked 16 times. Purdue's pass defense is allowing Big 10 opponents to complete only 53.3% of their passes for only 6.5 yards per pass attempt and they have 15 sacks and 6 interceptions. Indiana has fumbled 19 times in Big 10 play and I expect them to lose another few today because Purdue are one of the best teams in the Big 10 when it comes to stripping the ball (22 forced fumbles in Big 10 play). There is your x-factor as to why the Hoosiers will not cover in this game.
The Purdue Boilermakers lost me some cash a few weeks back when they were shutout at home against Penn State and failed to cover the +3 football points. They then went on the road and scored 59 points in two games so I don't seem the coming home in front of the West Lafayette fans and scoring anything less than 50 points in this game. The Boilermakers have scored only 3 crappy points in their last two home games and it's time to give these fans something to cheer about. Indiana's defense is light years away from being close to the Wisconsin or Penn State defenses. Not counting the Wisconsin and Penn State home games, Purdue is 5-1 ATS in their last six games and they have played some outstanding football at times this year. This game is for the Old Oaken Bucket, a trophy that Purdue has won 8 of the last 9 years and a trophy that they are not about to give up for Indiana to take home and enjoy on their way to a Bowl Game. The Boilermakers are already Bowl Eligible, yes...but like I mentioned earlier, they owe the home fans a good showing on Seniors Day having scored only three points in their last two home games. Purdue is averaging 19.6 points per Big 10 game this season but average 387.6 total yards and 5.6 yards per play in those games. BAM! Indiana's defense is allowing a whopping 39.1 points per game in Big 10 play on 443.4 total yards and 7.0 yards per play. OUCH! On the ground, RB Kory Sheets is a firestarter. The Boilermakers average 4.2 yards per carry in Big 10 play and are up against an Indiana defense that allows 185.7 rushing yards per conference game on 5.1 yards per carry. Sheets should run for 150+ in this one. In the air, QB Curtis Painters is finally finding his groove and rythm. He is completing 6.6 yards per pass attempt in conference play this season and although he does get careless and throws a lot of interceptions, he has good protection and if he catches fire early, there is no stopping him. Indiana's defense have only 4 interceptions in seven conference games and only 4 sacks to go with that. They also allow 9.6 yards per pass attempt in Big 10 play and I see Painter passing for some 350+ yards in this game. This is going to be a nice tuneup game for their visit to Hawaii next week and then carry this team right into a Bowl Game after that. I expect fireworks from the home team in their home finale.
Get over it Indiana backers...this team had plenty of chances to clinch a Bowl Game but they failed. They can only blame themselves for losing to a I-AA team and for getting smashed in a clincher game against Minnesota. The Hoosiers are a fraud and you're all about to find out why. Purdue has a lot to prove to the home fans on Seniors Day, having scored only three points in their last two home games. Add the fact that this is a rivalry game and the Boilermakers should do enough to beat the Hoosiers.
Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 7-1 ATS the last eight meetings.
Purdue 35, Indiana 17
Vanderbilt Commodores +8 (20 Units)
No matter what anyone tells me about teams like Tennessee, there is only one thing I can tell you about this team and that's that they are fading fast. After battling all season long and turning out as one of the biggest surprises in the Country, the Vols have since lost two straight games and are looking at possibly getting upset in this game as well. I say that because sure QB Erik Ainge is back in business and his ankle should be better but as we have seen in the past, QB's like Ainge to take a big of time when it comes to shaking off rust and Coach Fulmer will probably call a very conservative game for him. Right now the goal for this team is to win their last two games and escape further injury as they would head into the Bowl season with a decent 9-3 record. Well...easier said than done. Both Vanderbilt and Kentucky have played surprisingly well this season in SEC play and both teams have pulled a few upsets here and there. I don't know if these Tennessee players remember or not but it was their loss to Vanderbilt last season that knocked them out of Bowl contention, something that hadn't happened in 17 years. It was also the first time they lost to Vandy in 25 years or something like that. The Vols average 26.0 points per SEC game this season on 300.2 total yards and 5.0 yards per play. However, Vandy's defense has been decent allowing 23.9 points per SEC game on 363.0 total yards and 5.8 yards per play. On the ground is where Tennessee is losing games. They average only 64.3 rushing yards per SEC game on only 2.6 yards per carry. Vanderbilt are allowing only 3.9 yards per carry in Conference play which makes it tougher for the Vols to get going in this one. In the air, QB Erik Ainge should be play. The Vols however are completing only 57.1% of their passes in Conference play for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Ainge does have a tendency to throw a lot of INT's and the problem here is that Vandy have picked off 8 passes against SEC opponents. Sure the Commodores allow huge plays through the air but they take risks and I like risk taking teams in close rivalry games like this one. The Commodores have recovered seven fumbles in SEC play this year and this young and opportunistic defense will be pumped up for a huge in-state game. Repeat of last year? Could sure as hell be!
The Vanderbilt Commodores lost it all when QB Jay Cutler graduated from the University last year but things are looking a little brighter since their season opening three straight losses. Vanderbilt was eliminated from Bowl game contention with their tight ass loss to Kentucky last week but coach Bobby Johnson has told them team all week that this is going to be their Bowl Game. This is the season finale for a Vanderbilt team that highly exceeded all expectations by going 4-7. Many experts picked them to win three game maximum but their road upset against Georgia gave them that fourth win. Their motivation for this one? Well you could start with the fact that winning five games this season wasn't in anyone's wildest dreams before the season started. With a win here, the Commodores would be at five wins matching their total when Cutler was here. Add the fact that these kids are confident against the Vols knowing they already beat them once like they did last year. Like I said earlier, coach Johnson officially declared this game a Bowl game for his Commodores so you can expect them to come out guns blazing. I have been impressed by this team as they are 6-4 ATS on the year and almost beat Arkansas at home, almost beat Alabama on the road, almost beat Ole Miss on the road, beat Georgia on the road and almost beat Florida at home a few weeks back. The Commodores average 17.3 points per game in SEC play for 365.0 total yards and 5.8 yards per play. That's 65 yards and 0.8 yards per play better than Tennessee's offense in SEC play. The Vols defense has allowed 25.0 points per SEC game this year on 358.2 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, Vandy has run the ball very well averaging 135.9 rushing yards on 4.3 yards per carry in SEC play. Tennessee is allowing a whopping 162.3 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per carry in SEC play so expect QB Chris Nickson to keep the Tennessee offense off the field most of the day with some QB draws. Nickson has been impressive this season rushing for 650 yards. He is completing 57.3% of his passes in SEC play for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. He is very good at avoiding sacks but does tend to get carless with the ball. As long as he can move out of the pocket and throw the ball away when pressure, Nickson should have a great game. Tennessee are allowing SEC opponents to average 7.3 yards per pass attempt which should definitely keep the Commodores in this one.
The line looks juicy for Tennessee backers but Ainge is going to be rusty and you really can't forget about Vandy's huge road win (first in 25 years) over Tennessee last year. As much as the Vols want revenge, this Vandy QB Nickson is a future star in the SEC and he is going to show us why today. Coach Johnson has officially declared this Vanderbilt's Bowl Game and the home crowd should be wild and ready wanting a repeat of last year's huge upset. Give it to me baby and give Vanderbilt a fake Bowl Game win here.
Trend of the Game: Vanderbilt is 5-1 ATS in their last six games that follow a straight up loss.
Vanderbilt 24, Tennessee 22
Northwestern Wildcats +3 (10 Units)
The Illinois Fighting Illini have been as Jekyll and Hyde as it gets this season. I mean you can count their wins over Michigan State, close losses to Indiana, Wisconsin and Ohio State as the good but you also can't forget about the losses to pathetic Syracuse, blowout losses to Rutgers and Iowa, loss to Indiana and the loss to a MAC team in Ohio. Ron Zook is a good coach in my opinion but that's one heck of a wild season and what better way to end that season than with a loss? The Illini were supposed to win anywhere between 4-7 games but in the end they have only won two games and the team as a whole has been a big disappointment. For whatever crazy reason, oddsmakers are making Illinois the favorites in this game tonight. They have been favored already three times this season and in all three games they have lost straight up (Indiana, Ohio and Purdue last week). I just don't see how this Illinois team would be excited to end their year fighting for the basement position in the Big 10 with Northwestern. Sure the road team is 14-4 ATS the last 18 meetings but Illinois is clearly looking for the season to finish and winning one more game doesn't mean all that much to this team seeing that they lost at home on Seniors Day last week. The Fighting Illini are averaging only 19.9 points per game in Big 10 play this year on 346.4 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. Northwestern's defense has allowed 32.0 points per Big 10 game this season and 429.7 total yards per game. So as much as I would like to think Illinois will score a lot and win, their defense is just as bad. On the ground, Illinois averages a whopping 188.6 rushing yards per Big 10 game on 5.0 yards per carry. Northwestern run defense is allowing 178.3 rushing yards per Big 10 game on 4.6 yards per carry but in a shootout game, how far will running get you? In the air, QB Juice Williams is completing only 39.5% of his passes in Big 10 play for 5.4 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown 10 interceptions in conference play. Northwestern's defense allows big yardage plays but they do have 8 interceptions against Big 10 opponents. Illinois have a big problem with fumbles as they have fumbled 19 times in Big 10 play while Northwestern have forced 12 fumbles. Illinois and the Juice will get their share of points, but a few big plays by Northwestern's defense will change this thing around quite quickly. These are to teams that don't take many penalties so I don't see that being a factor. The problem I have with Illinois here is that they have not won against Nothwestern in three years and their confidence level sucks right now.
The Northwestern Wildcats very emotional season is coming to an end today and the Wildcats are hoping to end it as they started it. Head Coach Randy Walker passed away prior to the start of the season and the NWU players dedicated their season to their fallen leader. In the opener, the Wildcats beat Miami Ohio 21-3 on the road while honoring their former coach. 10 games and a million tears later, the Wildcats have only three wins on the season and those came against Miami Ohio, Eastern Michigan and most recently a big win in Iowa. Illinois head coach Ron Zook was a very good friend of Randy Walker's. They played together at Miami Ohio and won some big games together. He was looking forward to this game because he had been waiting for another chance to beat his longtime friends. I am not saying that will effect this game but you never know with Zook, he may just go easy on the Wildcats, let them win and please the people of Evanston...yeah right...not happening. Anyways, the Wildcats have played some decent football as of late (not counting the loss to Ohio State). They did beat Iowa in Iowa City and they blew a massive lead at home against Michigan State, a loss that still hurts when most players are reminded of it. This being the last home game and last game of the season, Northwestern has already dedicated this one to Walker and they want to win one more for coach Randy. The Wildcats are averaging only 14.0 points per Big 10 game this season and they average only 296.6 total yards per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. Illinois have not played all that bad this season but turnovers have killed them. Their defense is allowing 27.0 points per Big 10 game this season but on only 306.7 total yards per game and only 4.5 yards per play. That would most definitely indicate that opposing teams almost always start with short field position. On the ground, RB Tyrell Sutton has 890 rushing yards on the season and needs 110 to break the 1000 mark. Illinois is pretty good against the run allowing only 3.3 yards per carry in Big 10 play but I expect Sutton to crash some numbers down their throats in the season finale. For whatever reason, Sutton has not been able to consistantly run off big chunks of yardage against Big 10 opponents but I have a feeling that could all change today. In the air, QB CJ Bacher and Mike Kafka might alternate in this game. NW has had problems moving the ball against Big 10 opponents this year and although things may not get easier in this game, the Wildcats should be able to make some big plays. The offensive line has been brutal all year but the key to beating Northwestern has been interceptions and Illinois have only 5 interceptions in 7 Big 10 conference games this season. The Illini don't allow much yardage in the air and they have done a good job shutting things down. However, like I said, Northwestern will be blessed with good starting position on almost all their drives in this game and even if we need overtime to win and cover the spread, there is no way that the Wildcats and their Seniors are going to lose this tribute game for Randy Walker. Both the offense and defense is laced with Seniors and this is the biggest game of their collegiate careers for several different reasons. The Wildcats have won this game the last three years and I see them winning it again to make it four straight.
The line in this game is quite odd because Illinois has not won as a favorite this year while the oddsmakers are completely getting lost with the Big 10 lines this week for obvious reasons. Northwestern deserves to be favored because of the Randy Walker tribute factor and anyone backing Illinois in this one has serious issues. The Wildcats are overall a more talented team than Illinois and I have no doubt that they are going to make the big plays when they have to. Bad line means money for me.
Trend of the Game: Northwestern is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games that follow a double digit home loss.
Northwestern 25, Illinois 22
Oklahoma State Cowboys +6 (25 Units)
The Okie State stillwater drinking Cowboys are the real deal this year and I had no doubt in my mind when I saw this line being higher than 3 that I was going to smash it. Oklahoma State have done an outstanding job for Mike Gundy in his second year as head coach. Things caught fire right away when they beat the crap out of Missouri State to open the year, kick the crap out of Arkansas State and kicked the crap out of Florida Atlantic. One thing you have to understand about this team is that they are relentless and they quite easily resemble what could be considered one of the most lethal offenses in the Country. Then came the very sketchy losses to Houston and Kansas State but the Cowboys have since rebounded from those games and beat Kansas on the road, almost beat Texas A&M at home, wiped the floor with a very good Nebraska team at home and most recently demolished Baylor to bits and pieces. This rivalry goes back...way back and the last time Okie State won two straight games was more than 60 years ago. Okay so call me crazy for thinking they are going to win this game like they won last year's but why not? Nobody expected them to win seven games when the season started so winning one of the last two against TT and Oklahoma is a must. With that many guys back from last year on offense, the Cowboys shouls have a good time moving the ball here. Okie State is averaging 36.5 points per game in Big 12 play on a whopping 417.0 total yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. BANG BANG! Texas Tech's defense has taken several steps back this season and are allowing 30.1 points per game in the Big 12 on 344.0 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Cowboys are almost impossible to stop. They average 224.2 rushing yards per conference game on 5.7 yards per carry while the Red Raiders are allowing 153.1 rushing yards per Big 12 game on 3.9 yards per carry. The running attack should set things up nicely for QB Bobby Reid to air some balls out. In the air, Reid is completing 58.7% of his passes against Big 12 opponents for a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt. He has great line protection, getting sacked only 9 times in Big 12 play. Texas Tech do generate pressure but not enough to matter. They are allowing a whopping 7.1 yards per pass attempt against conference opponents this season and all their success has come on forcing fumbles. Problem with that is that Oklahoma State have lost only 5 fumbles against Big 12 teams all season and they do tend to make big plays instead of vice versa. Time for the Cowboys to get on their high horse and make some noise in the Big 12 race for Bowl position. The Cowboys have also been a very disciplined team this season in Big 12 play averaging only 6.2 penalties per game while Texas Tech lack complete discipline and average 8.6 penalties per conference game. COWBOY TIME BABY!
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are not the same Red Raiders of years past. I don't know if it's because they don't have a Senior QB or because their defense has not been able to stop any half decent team but something is not right. It has always been a favorite play of mine to take the Red Raiders in their final home game in Lubbock but that's probably because their QB's and RB's are always Seniors who give it their all one last time at home. This year, the QB is not a Senior so who knows what his level of intensity will be and who knows if he can keep up with Oklahoma State. The Red Raiders were supposed to win 9 or 10 games against this season but right now they stand at 6-5 with a chance to win a game #7. Seeing that this season has been such a big disappointment, the Red Raiders probably won't care as much as if they were going for win #10 because they know that this year's team is just not as talented as last year's team. In all their big home games this season (two of them), the Red Raiders have failed to impress. Sure coming within four points of beating rivals Texas is an accomplishment but losing to Missouri by two touchdowns + at home is not acceptable. So where have the impressive wins been by Texas Tech? I see one in College Station earlier this year and I don't see any others after that. The Red Raiders do average 30.0 points per game and 445.9 total yards for 6.7 yards per play in Big 12 play this season but can their defense keep up with the offense being on and off the field so quickly? I mean Okie State can't stop anyone either as shown in their 31.0 points per game allowed in the Big 12 on 410.3 total yards and 6.1 yards per play. On the ground, Texas Tech are as stubborn as it gets and run only 15 running plays per Big 12 game this season. Those 15 runs average out to 66 yards but in order to beat Okie State you need to run more than that. I say that because the Cowboys allow 4.7 yards per carry in Big 12 play this season and they usually can't stop high profile backs. In the air, QB Graham Harrell has been outstanding in Big 12 play, completing almost 70% of his passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt but he has thrown 8 interceptions against conference opponents. The Cowboys allow big time yardage in the air this season but they do bring significant blitz packages on opposing QB's which could force Harrell into some game changing INT's. The Cowboys have 18 sacks in six Big 12 conference games and some of that pressure will do this defense some good if they are up to it. Texas Tech have fumbled the ball 14 times in Big 12 play this season which is not good because Oklahoma State have forced 13 fumbles in only six conference games. Like I said, this game will come down to turnovers and I give the advantage to the Cowboys who will benefit from some big TT mistakes.
Vegas has set the trap quite nicely because winning by seven looks easy for Texas Tech against a very bad Okie State defense. The catch? Texas Tech have not played well against winning teams at home, losing by two touchdowns to Missouri and losing to the Longhorns. This is another big home test for the Red Raiders but I am not so sure that this underachieving bunch will be ready for this game. They were a -7 against Missouri at home earlier in the year and it looked too easy but once again the defense is not the same as it used to be and without good defense, the Red Raiders are quite useless.
Trend of the Game: Texas Tech is 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Oklahoma State 34, Texas Tech 30
Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (75 Units)
The Big one is here. I would love to have a 20 page writeup as to why this game is going to go down the way it's going to go down but I don't have time to argue with backers from both sides who will more likely than not start telling me that I am wrong here and wrong there. Okay, now onto the good stuff. The Michigan Wolverines are now one of four undefeated teams left in college football this season. My big question mark heading into this game is the strength of the Michigan schedule as well as the way this team performed in their conference games this season. I mean how many times this year did we see Ohio State kill opposing teams by 21+ points? Quite a few is my guess but once again, the same can't be said about Michigan. The Wolverines beat Vanderbilt by only 20 points in their opener, they beat Wisconsin by only 14 points (which does look quite impressive right now), they beat a pathetic Minnesota team by only 14 points on the road, they beat a mediocre Penn State team by only seven points on the road, they beat a horrendous Michigan State team by only 18 points at home, they beatr an pathetic Iowa team by only 14 points at home, they beat a horrendous Northwestern team by only 14 points at home and they barely beat Ball State (MAC Conference? HAHA) at home. I mean apart from the win over Notre Dame, those are some pretty unimpressive performances...every one of those teams was able to compete with the Wolverines. Michigan is averaging 24.9 points per game in Big 10 play this season (12.7 less than Ohio State) on 355.4 total yards and 5.5 yards per play. Nothing to be excited about. Ohio State is allowing only 7.6 points per game in Big 10 play on 237.0 total yards and 4.0 yards per play. On the ground, you can argue all night that RB Mike Hart is going to have a good game but the bottom line is that both teams can stop the run. Ohio State allow only 2.3 yards per carry in Big 10 play while Michigan runs a lot but runs for only 4.0 yards per carry. Ohio State's running attack is far more effective. In the air, QB Chad Henne is completing 64.2% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt in Big 10 play. He has been sacked only 10 times and thrown only 6 interceptions in those games. Ohio State's defense have picked off 15 passes in Big 10 play and are allowing only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Unlike Michigan's secondary, the Buckeyes know how to make big time plays and that will be the difference in this game. I am calling for a Buckeyes pick 6 at some point in this football game. Michigan gets exposed!
The Ohio State Buckeyes remind me a lot of the Texas Longhorns of 2005. I say that because the 2005 National Champion Longhorns almost never had an off game all season and they won almost all their games ATS (10-2 ATS). The Against The Spread mark is huge when it comes to determining true champions because it means that no matter what the test this season, Ohio State has risen to the challenge and they have answered the oddsmakers call. The Buckeyes are currently sitting at 9-2 ATS on the year and if all goes well, they should finish with the 10-2 ATS record. I was talking a lot about Michigan's mediocre efforts this year well let's look at Ohio State's performance. They won by 23 points against NIU to open the season, they beat Texas by 17 points in what is being called an ass whipping and a half, they beat Cincinnati by 30, they beat Penn State by 22 points (Michigan beat them by 7), they beat Iowa by 21 points, they beat Bowling Green by 28 points, they beat Michigan State by 31 points, they beat Indiana by 41 points, they beat Minnesota by 44 points (Michigan struggled against the Gophers) and they beat Northwestern by 44 points. TRUE SIGNS OF A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM. Now you're telling me that they are going to letup in this game? Ohio State is averaging 37.6 points per Big 10 game this season on 392.4 total yards and 5.9 yards per play. Michigan's defense has been good allowing only 8.9 points per game in Big 10 play but how will they handle all the three and outs by the offense? They have allowed only 3.9 yards per play in Conference games this season but Ohio State is the best they have seen by about a million miles. On the ground, Ohio State run a more effective game than Michigan, rushing for 202.4 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. So it doesn't really matter which mediocre Big 10 backs the Wolverines have stopped because they won't be able to stop Pittman and Smith. In the air, Troy Smith can't lose the Heisman at this point. He is completing 62.5% of his passes in Big 10 play for 7.9 yards per pass attempt and has thrown only 4 interceptions in seven conference games (Henne has thrown 6). He has also been sacked only 6 times so Michigan's pass rush won't be so effective. With WR's Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez running all over the place in this game, Michigan might get caught on one or two deep balls. It doesn't happen often but it does happen. Big plays are going to be the key in this game and I give the advantage to Ginn and company. If Ohio State doesn't steamroll the Wolverines, I don't know jack about college football.
Through the year I keep my own little set of rankings based on performance, strength of schedule and a few other variables. The program ranked teams from 1 to 119 and I would like to share the results with you guys. As of right now, Ohio State is obviously the number one team because of overall performances this season. Michigan on the other hand is ranked #9 believe it or not and quite frankly I completely agree. They have not been tested this season and teams like Texas, Louisville, West Virginia and USC would most likely wipe the floor with the Wolverines. I don't care what anyone says, when Michigan loses this game they should drop right out of the TOP 10 because who the hell have they beat this year? Ohio State have a huge win over Texas attached to their name while the Wolverines beat teams that belong nowhere near the TOP 10 in College Football and that includes those bogus Notre Dame clowns. The Wolverines will be exposed as big time frauds in this game and before you start chewing my head off for those comments, let's let the game play itself out and see you in the Ohio State Buckeyes party zone once it's all said and done. GO BUCKEYES BABY and please Corso be on the Wolverines!
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings.
Ohio State 24, Michigan 15
Kansas Jayhawks -2.5 (15 Units)
The general public and most of the betting world will probably be completely ignoring games being played at the same time as the big one but that's not a reason for us not to have some side cash on games like this. The Kansas State Wildcats were being called a Bowl team before the season started and sure enough, they are heading back to a Bowl Game for the first time since 2003. However, coming off a three point win at home against Texas last weekend, I have a feeling the Wildcats are going to be all partied out for this game and as much as Ron Prince would like to have their full attention in order for them to finish with 8 wins, you just can't hide behind the letdown situation. Beating a National Title contender like Texas is as big as it gets in Manhattan. Seeing that the two schools are in the same state, the Wildcats stayed home all week, went to school and practiced. However, you and me both know that they had that win on their minds all week. How quickly most of us have forgotten about the Wildcats road play this season. This is the same Kansas State team that lost to Baylor, yes Baylor, by a score of 17-3 on the road. The same Wildcats team that lost to Missouri in their second road game of the year. I do have to give them credit for their current three game win streak though. Kansas State is averaging 24.0 points per game in the Big 12 this season on 345.6 total yards and only 5.6 yards per play. Kansas have been shaky all season on defense allowing 27.2 points per Big 12 game on 414.8 total yards and 5.9 yards per play. On the ground, Kansas State are averaging 125.1 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. However, the Kansas rush defense has been good allowing only 120.8 rushing yards per Big 12 game this season on only 3.7 yards per carry. In the air, QB Josh Freeman has been a breath of fresh air for this team but K-State QB's are completing only 54.4% of their passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt in Big 12 play. The offensive line has allowed 17 sacks in conference play and that's bad because Kansas have a great pass rush. The Jayhakws allow opposing Big 12 QB's to complete only 54.0% of their passes this season. Sure they allow some big yardage plays in the air but they make up for it with ball hawking d-backs who have 6 interceptions in conference play. The Jayhawks defense has also forced 15 fumbles in only six conference games this season. As much as Kansas State has had success here in the past, thier party days are over because they are going down hard here.
The Kansas Jayhawks were being called a team with 'an excellent shot at reaching their 3rd Bowl Game in 4 years' before the season started but they have been put in a tough spot where they need to win one of their last two games to make it to the Bowl Season. Ironically enough, this is the winnable game of the two games left for Kansas and they really need to win this for the 40+ thousand in attendance who got a nice taste of the Bowl season in 2005. It's ironic because it comes against their biggest rivals in Kansas State and the Jayhawks have had a hellish time shaking off the curse of beating the Wildcats the last 12 years. In fact, Kansas is only 1-11 in their last 12 games against their cross-state which is probably why so many people are on Kansas State for this game. I don't buy it. Hardly ever is a Bowl Game on the line when you are playing at home. Kansas have been both impressive and pathetic at the same time this season. Their wins against South Florida, Colorado and Iowa State were all impressive but they won't mean much if the Jayhawks can't get that win #6. Losses to Toledo, Nebraska, Okie State, Baylor and Texas A&M don't make the naked eye too confident but you have to trust Mark Mangino. The Jayhawks average 29.7 points per game in Big 12 action this year and have done it on 392.2 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. The Kansas State defense is allowing 25.6 points per Big 12 game this season and they have done it by allowing 367.1 total yards and 5.4 yards per play. Not that bad but not that good either. On the ground, RB Jon Cornish will be the difference maker. He is at 1100+ rushing yards on the year and is playing his last home game ever. The Jayhawks average a very nice 179.0 rushing yards per conference game on 4.7 yards per carry. Kansas State can't stop the run as they allow 149.1 rushing yards per conference game for 4.0 yards per carry. I expect Cornish to go out with a bang and that includes 150+ yards and 2 touchdowns to end his career. This kid (Canadian) can make big plays. In the air, QB Kerry Meier has been decent completing 54.4% of his passes in Big 12 play for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. He has a tendency to make too many stupid throws but with Cornish tearing things up on the ground, life should be a lot easier for Meier. The Kansas State defense is allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt in Big 12 play this season and although their pass rush is ferocious and will most certainly affect Meier, the running game should keep things honest enough to win. Kansas State have only 3 interceptions in seven conference games this season and they don't have enough big playmakers on defense to make Kansas pay for blunders. This is a great chance for this Kansas team to reach a Bowl Game and I have no doubt in my mind that they can get it done with some powerful running and a few big plays through the air.
Vegas has set this line hoping that everyone and their mom's jump on the Kansas State train after their big win over Texas last week. The Jayhawks need this game about 20 times more than Kansas State does and they are eager to break their big time 12 year jinx against their cross state rivals. The Longhorn hangover will be in full effect for this game and I just don't see Kansas State making enough big plays to win such a big game for the Kansas program. Don't get caught here guys...Jayhawks are the play.
Trend of the Game: The Favorite is 10-1 ATS the last 11 meetings.
Kansas 30, Kansas State 23
Wake Forest Demon Deacons PK (50 Units)
The Virginia Tech Hokies were supposed to be a National Title contender before the season started but they are 8-2 on the year and clearly out of the Title picture because of some bad losses. Not a big deal to us but it's a big deal to Frank Beamer and his guys. Had it not been for losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College in their mid-season, Virginia Tech would currently be ranked in the TOP 5 in the Country and we would be talking about these guys possible playing for the Nationa Title. Not the case. Apart from their National TV win against Clemson, I have not been all that impressed or convince by the Hokies this season. Beating teams like Duke, Cincinati, Southern Miss, Kent State, North Carolina and Northeaster just isn't my thing. Their other big game was against the Hurricanes of Miami and they won that 17-10 but I mean this just isn't the same Hurricanes team as before. Now the Hokies have to walk into Winston-Salem knowing they virtually have no chance of winning or playing for the ACC Title this year. There is zero motivation for this young Frank Beamer team to win and although it's only Wake Forest and Virginia to finish their year, this is definitely an upset in the making. The Hokies have had their fair share of problems this year whether it be poor QB play or bad running room but they haven't played against good enough teams to expose those weaknesses. They average 23.7 points per game in ACC play this season but those points come on only 274.2 total yards of offense per game and a pathetic 4.3 yards per play. Wake Forest have done a tremendous job on defense allowing only 15.7 points per conference game on only 344.7 total yards and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB Brandon Ore is one of the most underrated backs in College football but the Hokies average only 90.2 rushing yards per ACC game this season on only 2.8 yards per carry. Wake Forest is allowing only 99.7 rushing yards per ACC game this season for only 3.1 yards per carry so all is in the hands of QB Sean Glennon. The sophomore has been mediocre at best, completing 54.5% of his passes in ACC play for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked 15 times in six games and has thrown 5 interceptions in those games. Wake Forest tend to allow big plays in the air but they contain it to only 6.9 yards per pass attempt in conference play this season. More impressively is the fact that they have 12 interceptions in six conference games and they have forced 13 fumbles. This Wake Forest defense is playing with an extra jump in their step and they will force turnovers in this game. Virginia Tech gets exposed as a fradulous 8 win team.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have not had a season go like this for something like 40-50 years. Who the hell knew before the season started that we would now be talking about the Deacons playing for the ACC Title in a couple of weeks if all goes well? All they have to do is win this game, win the next game and they have it all locked and they also would have an 11-1 season and probably looking at a spot in the BCS Bowls. Now if I can recall, everyone was calling for them to get to a Bowl Game this season (first time since 2002 and only second time since 1999) but nobody and I mean nobody was talking about the BCS picture and quite possibly the National Title picture if they can win these last two games and finish as a one loss team. It's just unreal. I mean sure their schedule wasn't the strongest around but recent wins over Boston College and Florida State have most certainly solidified this team as a contender and I am loving every minute of it. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games and oddsmakers just don't want to give them the respect they want or deserve. Wake Forest is a big fat 6-0 ATS on the season when pegged as the underdog and it's quite incredible that Vegas would label as dogs when they are at home on a Saturday night under the damn National TV lights. The Deacons are averaging 21.8 points per ACC game this season and have done it on only 275.5 total yards per game but 5.1 yards per play. Virginia Tech's defense will always be one of the best in the ACC which is why Wake has to work for each and every yard. The Hokies allow only 14.5 points per game in Conference play on only 233.2 total yards per game and 4.0 yards per play. Now that's some defense. On the ground, the Deacons average 126.5 rushing yards per ACC game on only 3.7 yards per carry which isn't bad news because VTech are allowing only 3.1 yards per carry in conference games this season. In the air, freshman QB Riley Skinner has been outstanding. He is completing a whopping 71.4% of his passes in ACC games this season for 7.5 yards per pass attempt and has thrown only 3 interceptions against ACC opponents. Virginia Tech have some very athletic and agressive DB's who allow only 5.0 yards per pass attempt so things won't come easy for the composed youngster. If he can have enough time to complete some short yardage passes, the Deacons will have a shot in this game. Wake Forest has been a very well disciplined team all season long and they are the real deal. VTech have fumbled 14 times in ACC play while Wake have fumbled only 8 times. The Hokies defense is agressive but they don't force many fumbles which could be the key to this game.
We all know this is going to be a low-scoring affaire but the question in the end will be...WHO CAN MAKE PLAYS ON OFFENSE? The way I see it, even though Riley Skinner is a new QB, he is much more composed and has much more rythm that Sean Glennon. I give the defensive advantgae to Virginia Tech on pure talent but when it comes to heart and determination, you can't say that this Wake Forest team doesn't win that department. The crowd at Groves Stadium is going to be unreal and it seems like this new turf is really helping this team out. A lot of people are on the Hokies but who the hell wouldn't want to be on a 6-0-1 ATS gravy train this week with conference implications on the line? CASH MONEY BABY!
Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs of 0.5 to 3 points.
Wake Forest 21, Virginia Tech 16
UCLA Bruins +5.5 (25 Units)
The UCLA Bruins were rated as one of the bottom feeder teams in the PAC 10 before this season started. This was tapped as a rebuilding year for Karl Dorrell's team but the catch 22 to that was that Dorrell needs a winning season to keep his job and he has that on the line tonight. The Bruins are currently 5-5 on the year and they need one more win to make this a successful season which would be reaching a Bowl Game for the fifth straight year. We all know there is virtually no chance of them beating USC in two weeks so this is do or die for the Bruins and I have no doubt in my mind that they will be ready. I can't say I am too impressed with the way this young team has played in Pac 10 play this season but I did see enough bright spots to know that they can definitely win this game. The Bruins had big conference wins over Stanford and Arizona. However, they lost their games against Washington, Oregon, Washington, California and Oregon State. They did show signs of brilliance by pounding 24 points in against California on the road and I was impressed by their near win in South Bend earlier this year. There's just something about this team that seems to see them play well when they have to. I expect one of those today. The Bruins are averaging 23.0 points per game in PAC 10 play this season on 326.0 total yards and 5.1 yards per play this season. The Arizona State Sun Devils are allowing 29.9 points per game in PAC 10 play this season for 329.1 total yards and 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, the Bruins are averaging 125.4 rushing yards per conference game on 4.1 yards per carry which is pretty good. The Sun Devils are allowing 138.0 rushing yards per conference game on 4.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Pat Cowan is still the starter for Dorrell and the reviews for this kid are mixed. He is completing 55.4% of his passes in PAC 10 play for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. He has great offensive line protection this season so the mistakes should stop soon. He has thrown something like 7 interceptions in PAC 10 play but the Sun Devils don't have any big playmakers on their defensive side of the ball. ASU has done a good job of shutting opposing passing attacks down but they get killed on the ground and the Bruins don't have a problem with playing the field position and clock control game in this one. As long as the Bruins stay out of penalty troubles which has been their achilles heel, they should be in for a big upset win that catapults them into Bowl eligibility.
The Arizona State Sun Devils, much like the UCLA Bruins, are probably fighiting and playing for their coaches job. Dirk Koetter was supposed to lead this team to much bigger things than a measly 6-4 record on the season. It all started right before the season when he sent QB Sam Keller packing and made QB Rudy Carpenter the number one guy. Koetter has been here for six years now and like I mentioned earlier, this was the year where Arizona State was supposed to win at least 8 or 9 games and not a pathetic maximum of seven games like the 2005 edition. The Sun Devils kicked off conference action by getting smoked courtesy of California and Oregon. Then came the close loss to USC which at the time was impressive until the Trojans lost against Oregon State. So that means that the Sun Devils, much like UCLA, don't have many credible PAC 10 conference wins this season. Wins over Washington, Stanford and Washington State don't really tell me much because neither one of those teams has done enough damage to gain credibility. I do have to hand it to the Sun Devils though...they are 6-3 ATS on the year and have done a great job when it comes to covering bogus spreads. However, this is another bogus spread but this time the other way around. It's also a well known fact that the underdog does well in this series which totally goes against the Sun Devils as a rather large favorite. Arizona State is averaging 25.1 points per game in the PAC 10 this season but they have done so on only 337.1 total yards per game and only 5.2 yards per play. UCLA's defense is definitely their strong point as they allow only 21.1 points per game in PAC 10 play on only 321.1 total yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, Arizona State average a nice 170.1 rushing yards per conference game on 4.3 yards per carry but are up against a massive defensive line that is allowing only 100.1 rushing yards per game and only 3.0 yards per carry in PAC 10 games this season. Forget about running the ball ASU, it won't work. In the air, QB Rudy Carpenter is completing only 52.3% of his passes in PAC 10 play this season for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked a whopping 25 times in seven conference games which is bad news because UCLA's pass rush has 18 sacks in seven conference games and Carpenter is going to have to find a way to avoid losing big yards. He needs to be careful though because he has thrown 8 interceptions in PAC 10 play while the Bruins have picked off 8 passes in conference play. The combination of a slowed down rushing attack and a lack of time for Carpenter to throw are going to result in several disasters for the Sun Devils offense in this game and I see them losing straight up.
In a game where the one team is favored only because they are at home, you have to take a close look at the underdog. I say that because the dog has traditionally covered a lot of games in this series, yet the public is completely ignoring that and writting off the Bowl hungry Bruins. I love UCLA as an underdog in this spot because they have covered three of their last four games and this game means a lot more to them than it does to Arizona State. There is no way this game is not decided by a field goal or less and whoever thinks the spread is accurtate, you have issues.
Trend of the Game: UCLA is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
UCLA 26, Arizona State 23
:cheers:
