MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Bowl Record: 14-13 (-$500)
2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 14-13 (-$500)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-$4700)
7-0 ATS the last seven BOWL GAMES
I have now won seven straight Bowl Games (6-0 yesterday) to pretty much strike even (juiced out) on the Bowl Season. With only five more Bowl Games to go, it's time to lower the hammer and get out on top. Good Luck to all...we only have five CFB games left until September.
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2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 14-13 (-$500)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-$4700)
7-0 ATS the last seven BOWL GAMES
I have now won seven straight Bowl Games (6-0 yesterday) to pretty much strike even (juiced out) on the Bowl Season. With only five more Bowl Games to go, it's time to lower the hammer and get out on top. Good Luck to all...we only have five CFB games left until September.
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Orange Bowl
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +10 (10 Units)
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are pretty much new to this stuff. I don't think many players on this team were there for the 2002 Seattle Bowl where Wake Forest demolished Oregon as +7 point underdogs when nobody thought they had a chance. Head Coach Jim Grobe is one of the most underrated coaches in the NCAA right now and understimating these kinds of coaches has proven to be a huge mistake all Bowl Season. Don't argue with me guys...you, me and the oddsmakers have all been guilty of understimating the Deacons at some point this season. How about against Florida State when they were a +10 and won 30-0 in Tallahassee? Or how about the 38-24 win over Maryland in College Park in a must win situation as a +1.5 underdog? Or how about the 9-6 win over Georgia Tech to win the ACC Championship as +2 underdogs. Get my drift? Every single time anyone has said that Wake Forest can't possibly do it, they have done it and I don't see any reason why it would stop now. I know the Deacons don't have much offense to go along with their great defense but in games like this, good defense brings good offense and we saw that with Florida State and we saw that with Auburn (although ineffective most of the game, they won). Wake Forest is averaging only 22.2 points per game this season but they have done it by averaging 301.2 total yards and 5.1 yards per game. Louisville's defense has been decent all season but they have allowed 16.6 points per game on 315.3 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, the key to time of possession is running the ball. RB's Kenneth Moore, Kevin Harris and De'Angelo Bryant are all going to get the ball in this game and together they average 4.5 yards per carry. The Cardinals are allowing 104.3 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry this season. Hopefully Jim Grobe sticks to the run because Cincinnati rushed 52 times against the Cardinals and kept the game within 7 points. In the air, QB Riley Skinner was actually recruited by Louisville at one point. He is completing 66.1% of his passes for 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Louisville's defense is allowing 49.1.0% of passes to be completed against them for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The key for Wake Forest will be to run well enough to slow down Louisville's pass rush. As I mentioned before, Wake Forest loves to run the ball and teams that run effectively and for small yardage at a time, have a great chance of frustrating and beating the Cardinals. The only reason West Virginia couldn't do it is because the Mountaineers run a lot but their runs are for 80 yard touchdowns giving the ball right back to Louisville who can in return, go for another score. That won't happen here.
The Louisville Cardinals are in my opinion, the third best team in the Country after Ohio State and USC but that doesn't mean they'll be motivated to beat Wake Forest. It's silly to say a team doesn't care about playing in the Orange Bowl but to draw Wake Forest must have Louisville players wondering if this is really the BCS or if this is a fluke incident where a team like this made the BCS. I suggest the Cardinals players talk to the Clemson players. Clemson was perfect on the year when they ran into Wake Forest at home back on October 7. The Tigers clearly understimated Wake Forest as the Deacons led the game 17-3 heading into the 4th quarter before completely falling apart and losing by 10 points to screw their perfect season. Regardless, big name programs like Louisville just can't help understimating a team that had not won more than four games the last 2-3 years. It's just a psychological thing. A lot of people are talking about Bobby Petrino and this being an audition for him to coach elsewhere but why would he want to? Petrino was a -10 favorite in the 2004 Liberty Bowl against Boise State and almost lost. The Cardinals are averaging a whopping 38.9 points per game this season on 476.8 total yards of offense and 7.2 yards per play. Wake Forest is allowing only 14.7 points per game on 312.2 total yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season. On the ground, RBs Kolby Smith and George Stripling have to have a good game for the Cardinals to have a chance of covering the 10 points. That won't be easy though because Wake Forest is allowing only 104.3 rushing yards per game on only 3.1 yards per carry. That will force Louisville to throw the ball. QB Brian Brohm is a stud that will one day play on Sundays but he missed part of the season with an injury and more time off could have him a little bit off. Brohm is completing 62.7% of his passes this year for 9.8 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Another key for Wake Forest will be to make sure they don't lose track of WR Mario Urrutia who is 6'6. CB Riley Swanson and Safety Josh Gattis have combined for 9 interceptions this year and the only one who can stop Urrutia is Gattis with his size. Both guys have to play him tough while Alphonso Smith and Patrick Ghee (6 combined interceptions) play tough on Harry Douglas. The Wake Forest safeties are both big time hitters (210+ pounds each) and like I said, they need to be physical all night with Urrutia and Douglas the way they were rough with Calvin Johnson in the ACC Title Game. As long as Wake Forest can limit the running game, control the clock and on occasion shutdown Urrutia and Douglas, they will have a good shot at winning this game straight up. The Deacons have 22 interceptions and 23 forced fumbles. It's time show the world what this D is all about.
The line for this game is right on the money in terms of getting action on Louisville. Had they thrown on the hook of 10.5, Wake Forest would be getting too much action. This reminds me of the solid -7 line on Oklahoma last night. Had it been up at 7.5, almost everyone would have been on Boise State. I'm not saying this is a huge sucker bet because I do see quite a few people on Wake Forest but taking Louisville just because Wake Forest has not seen an offense like this all season, would be just ridiculous. My reasoning? Louisville played a lot of solid teams this year but the one that resembles Wake Forest the most was Cincinnati. The Cardinals only beat Cincinnati 23-17. Cincinnati is #38 in total yards allowes, Wake Forest is #46. Cincinnati is #78 in passing yards allowed, Wake Forest is #98. Cincinnati is #33 in rushing yards allowed, Wake Forest is #27 in rush yards allowed. Cincinnati is #36 in points allowed, Wake Forest is #13 in points allowed. They key to keeping the game close for Cincinnati was holding Louisville to only 105 rushing yards and winning the time of possession battle 36:43 to 23:17, not allowing the Cardinals to pull away. Cincinnati rushed 52 times in that game and Wake could do the same. Jim Grobe and the Deacons know all about time of possession (3rd in the ACC) and I think they can keep this game close.
Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 8-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
Wake Forest 28, Louisville 27
:cheers:
