MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 52-40-6 (-316.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 43-31-4 (-198 .50 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-7-2 (-79.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-3-1 (+117.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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Sunday, December 24
Washington Redskins +2 (50 Units)
The Washington Redskins are coming off their most impressive win all season as they went into New Orleans and beat a very good Saints team who were coming off a big win of their own. Sure it doesn't fix their 5-9 season but it does give them momentum heading into the last two weeks of the season and that has to be encouraging. The Redskins can definitely be a very good team when they show up to play and they proved by beating New Orleans, Dallas and Carolina in the last seven games. That's two playoff bound teams and one team that still had a decent shot at the playoffs when they played against them. So you mean to tell me that they are going to have problems against the Rams? Cmon...let's keep this real. I see that every single predicitions expert is on St. Louis to win and cover but I just don't understand how you back this spineless team. Even Pro Bowl Selectors snubbed some of the best Rams like Leonard Little which goes to show you how bad this team really is. Believe it or not, the Redskins have been the underdog in 4 of their last 5 games this season and they have not lost once against the spread (2-0-2 ATS). That's encouraging because it shows that the youth is interested in playing for next season which is exactly what they need. The Redskins come into this game averaging only 16.3 points per game in their last three games but they have done it on 383.3 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play so don't under estimate them. The Rams defense has allowed 25.3 points per game in their last three and also allowed 316.0 total yards and 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Ladell Betts is coming out of shell and is emerging as a star. Betts has rushed for 100+ yards in three straight games. He is averaging 98.3 rushing yards per game indoors on the season compared to only 58.0 rushing yards per game outdoors. Washington has rushed for 182.7 yards per game in their last three on 5.2 yards per carry. We all know St. Louis has horrendous run defense so if Betts gets enough carries, he'll expose that weak run defense almost right away. That should make things comfortable for QB Jason Campbell who has had a tough time completing passes but when he does, they for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. His offensive line has done a great job as of late giving him the protection he needs and as long as he can cut down on the INT's, the Redskins should have no problems here. The Rams defense is allowing their last three QB opponents to complete 61.6% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. What I do like about Campbell is that he has lead this team to a 41.9% third down conversion rate over the last three weeks which shows great composure. The Redskins have been horrendous in the Red Zone but luckily the Rams allow touchdowns 50% of the time from in there the last three weeks. The Rams have also been getting killed on kickoff returns as of late which means Rock Cartwright, who is a pretty damn good returner, could give the Skins good field position most of the afternoon.
The St. Louis Rams are somehow still chasing a playoff spot in the NFC and believe it or not, should they win their last two remaining games, they have a great chance of getting it. Whatever...that's the story of the NFC for you these days and it has become a complete joke. The Rams might be a little bit overpriced in this game because they are coming off a 20-0 win over the Oakland Raiders in Oakland but judging by the way the Raiders have looked this season, I don't doubt that many college teams could give them a run for their money. St. Louis was actually the underdog last week against those Raiders which makes it quite funny that they have all of a sudden been made the favorites in another game between pieces of trash. The Rams only three wins during their recent 3-7 slide have been against the Raiders last week, the Niners by a Field Goal and the Packers by a field goal back in early October. That's it and that's all. Washington is definitely 2 or 3 notches above all three of those teams if you ask me which is why I don't see how the Rams are going to have success in this game as the home favorite (a roll they have sucked in for a few years now). St. Louis just isn't what they used to be when Mike Martz was here and it's time accept it. The Rams are averaging only 22.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 359.3 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. Washington's defense has been so-so all season but in their last three games they have allowed only 18.3 points per game and even more impressive is that they allowed only 300.7 total yards and 5.5 yards per play in those games. This defense is no stranger to playing in Domes so this shouldn't be a problem. On the ground, RB Stephen Jackson could have a big day seeing that the Rams have rushed for 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games and the Redskins have allowed 142.0 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry in their last three games this season. That's okay. When these two teams met last season, Jackson was held to only 24 yards on only 11 carries and the Skins should know what to do in this game. In the air, QB Marc Bulger is completing only 59.0% of his passes for a measly 5.9 yards per pass attempt the last three weeks while being sacked 11 times and throwing 4 interceptions during that span of games. Greg Williams is a good defensive coordinator and knowing that the Rams offensive line sucks, he is most definitely going to bring some heavy pressure and force Bulger into making stupid mistakes. Washington is only allowing a 57.1% completion rate in their last three games for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The Rams have fumbled the ball 4 times the last three games but somehow recovered all of them which won't be the case in this game. The Rams are converting only 31.8% of their 3rd downs in the last three games which is really not good considering the Redskins have allowed many third downs to be converted against teams like the Saints. There is currently little or no life on the Rams special teams which is going to make it all that more difficult to win this game for these guys without having some breaks on the return game. I think St. Louis is done for the year today and the Redskins will show us how their win last week in New Orleans and their win against Dallas a month ago were not fluke wins.
What I can't understand is why the public perception of St. Louis is still the one of the Mike Martz days when this offense was powerful at home and on the road and where they kicked pretty much every defenses ass along the way. St. Louis had the second easiest schedule in this NFL this season yet they could only manage 20.7 points per game. Pathetic. Meanwhile, Washington had the 12 toughest schedule in the NFL this season yet they managed to score almost as many points per game as the Rams. What I am trying to say here is that I don't understand how the Rams are the favorite in this game? Washington is playing for next year, they are shining while trying to do it and St. Louis somehow still thinks they are a playoff team and they can wins games like these. My guess is the Washington defense has another good game and Betts gives us all a nice start to the X-Mas Eve festivities.
Trend of the Game: Washington is 11-2-3 ATS in their last 16 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
Washington 16, St. Louis 14
Arizona Cardinals +4 (50 Units)
The Arizona Cardinals come into this game as a 4-10 team on the season but had they all been healthy all season long and had Matt Leinart developped a little quicker than he did, I don't have any doubt in my mind that the Cardinals would be pushing for a playoff spot. This team is not as bad as their record indicates which makes lines like this all that more sweet. The Cardinals did suck this year and they failed to beat any decent team in the NFL which is another reason why they have to win games like this one against the second worst team in the NFL this season. Arizona was stunned last week 37-20 in Denver but they did play well in that game and they did come close to making a miraculous comeback for the ages. The entire team looked comfortable but too bad it was an inevitable win for new QB Jay Cutler in that one or else I think the Cardinals could have won that game. Prior to that though, the Cardinals beat St. Louis, Seattle and Detroit and you really can't forget that they have now covered 4 of their last 5 games with the only loss coming last week against those Broncos. The injury list for the Cardinals is very short right now and all the youth is probably dying to make an impression for the future. The Cardinals are averaging a whopping 27.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done it by averaging 318.7 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. The San Francisco defense is allowing a whopping 26 points per game in their last three games and they have done it by also allowing 365.0 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Edgerrin James has run the ball a lot better the last three games, rushing for 115 yards twice and 60+ yards the other time. James is up against a San Francisco defense that has allowed 139.7 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry in their last three games and if he can get going on the ground early, the Cardinals will have no problem winning this game. In the air, Leinart is completing a decent 60.2% of his passes the last three weeks for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked only 4 times during those games which is a huge improvement from earlier on this season when he was taking sacks left and right. The Niners pass defense is actually decent so this game should be low scoring as they allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt but don't have much of a pass rush and don't have many big playmakers in their secondary. Arizona is converting a whopping 44.7% of their 3rd down chances the last three weeks and they have been red hot once inside the Red Zone when it comes to scoring touchdowns. The X-Factor in this game though will probably be the return game of Troy Walters who has averaged 18.6 yards per punt return the last three weeks. The Cardinals are playing some very good football as of late and like I said before, they are definitely the better of the two teams in this game and Leinart should be inspired by another trip back to his home state.
The San Francisco 49ers were on National TV the last time we saw them and I know exactly what most bettors are thinking for this game. They are thinking that the Niners blew away the Seahawks in that game and that this is a team on the big time rise...right? WRONG! The Niners were being controlled in every aspect of that game versus Seattle until a freak pass by Alex Smith from his own 8 yard line or something, changed the entire face of that game. Even after that, the Niners didn't do crap to be favored by this many points at home which is why I don't see them having that kind of success in this game today. San Francisco had lost three games in a row prior to their big win over Seattle so why should we believe that they have turned things around enough for us to back them? This is the same Niners team that lost to both St. Louis and Green Bay in the span of the last month which is definitely not good news for them. Sure Frank Gore has been one of the best RB's in the NFL this season but Alex Smith has been so-so and the Niners offense is going to be without one of their main deep threats in Antonio Bryant who has been suspended for four games by the NFL. The Niners are averaging a pathetic 17.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done it by averaging 310.7 total yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. That clearly indicates that the Niners go for the home run ball or they don't do anything at all. Arizona's defense has allowed 26.0 points per game in their last three games on 368.0 total yards and 5.7 yards per play but they are a lot better than that and it should start to show in these last two games of the season. On the ground, Gore has led this team to 143.7 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry in their last three but Arizona did a good job of stuffin some runs last week and they are allowing only 111.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games. As long as they can contain Gore, they should have no problems shutting down the passing attack. Without Antonio Bryant, the field won't be stretched out and the Cardinals can load up big time. Alex Smith is completing only 48.8% of his passes the last three weeks for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. He has not been sacked much but he has thrown 5 interceptions in his last three games and has a QB Rating of only 59.0 in those games. Bryant was his favorite target and now he's out for the game. Arizona's secondary has it's fair share of problems lately but this should be a great time to improve and start playing some shutdown defense like they did in a few games earlier this season. The Niners are taking 7.0 penalties per game in their last three games which is 2 more than the Cardinals. They are also converting only 32.5% of third down chances in those games and their special teams have not made many big plays. The Niners are averaging only 4.0 first half points the last three games while Arizona have averaged 14.7 first half points in their last three games. As long as the Cards jump out to an early lead, the lights will be out early in this game.
The funny thing about this game is that the public has fallen in love with a San Francisco team that is still as bad as it gets in the NFL but that is coming off an impressive performance on National TV. I don't know how much the Niners care for this game but I do know that Arizona has a lot to play for here because their season most definitely is not complete. All the injuries Arizona had this year makes them sort of in mid-season mode right now and they way they play right now is going to tell the coaching staff and upper management what they are looking at for next year. Leinart has a great core of players in front of him when they are healthy and as a young kid coming back to California for X-Mas, he should be licking his chops at the chance to make an impact here. Alex Smith on the other hand was probably up late last night partying away after the Utah (alma mater) win and I think the Cardinals can make Leinart look like the better of the two QB's.
Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points.
Arizona 10, San Francisco 9
Cincinnati Bengals +3 (50 Units)
The Cincinnati Bengals have been bothered by their embarassing Monday Nigth loss to the Colts all week now and they have been very eager to get back onto that field and beat the crap out of someone for a blowout of their own. Well for those of you who don't have anything to do after 4:00pm on Christmas Eve, I can almost guarantee you that you are in for one hell of a display by the Bengals here. The total for this game is set at only 44 points which is pretty damn ridiculous considering that Cincinnati have scored 27 or more points in three of their last five games. This is still one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL and seeing that the Denver Broncos are having big time issues on defense the last two months, it shouldn't take much for Carson Palmer and his crew to get back on track in this game. You also have to consider that they have not had much time to sit there and think about this game while in Denver because the snow was so bad that their schedule got messed up. However, the Broncos are in the same situation and that could be a distraction for them as well. Just don't forget that Cincinnati had beatean Baltimore and New Orleans during their four game win streak prior to Monday Night. The Bengals are averaging only 18.7 points per game in their last three games but they have done it by also averaging 337.0 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Denver's defense was ranked in the TOP 5 at the beginning of the year but their decline has been incredible as of late and they are allowing 30.3 points per game in their last three games on 328.0 total yards and 5.7 yards per play. On the ground, RB Rudi Johnson has not been running the ball well but much like other teams who have come here with passing attack threats, he should have some open holes to work with. Denver is allowing 4.1 yards per carry in their last three games and Johnson could have a huge game. In the air, Carson Palmer is completing 62.9% of his passes over the last three weeks and he has done it by averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt while throwing 3 interceptions. His offensive line is weakening a bit but as long as he is quick in this game, scoring points should not be an issue tonight. Denver's defense is allowing a whopping 7.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and since Chad Johnson and his great receving corps had a night off on Monday, I expect them to be back in action for this big game. Once the Bengals reach the Red Zone, they have converted entires to touchdowns only 41.7% of the time the last three weeks but Denver is allowing a 61.5% conversion rate inside the Red Zone the last three weeks so there are no excuses for not getting in there this week. None whatsoever. The key to this game will be to get a fast start if you are the Bengals. Score first in this game and the lights will be out, I can tell you that much right now.
The Denver Broncos are 8-6 on the season, just like their counterpart Cincinnati Bengals are as well. The only problem here is that there are several other AFC teams with very weak schedules to end their seasons that could easily win their last two games and knockout the loser of this game. Eight wins in the AFC is definitely not enough for anyone to make the playoffs this season which makes this game even more interesting and important for both teams. Now that I take a look at the big picture of this season, Mike Shanahan's decision to take Jake Plummer out as the starter and put in the rookie Cutler is going to be judged by how the Broncos perform in this game. You really can't forget that Cutler's only win as a starter was against the Arizona Cardinals (gotta love the shit I talk about teams I bet on today). I have said time and time against that the spot was wrong for Cutler to be inserted as the starter because too much was expected of him right away. Other rookie QB's in the NFL were never under the same type of pressure (taking over a playoff team) which is why guys like Romo, Leinart and Vince Young have all done well. I don't think Cutler has the confidence just yet to win this game...not if Denver goes down a few scores early. The Broncos are averaging 25.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 330.7 total yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. However, Cincinnati's defense has been very good the last month or so and they have allowed only 17.7 points per game in their last three games for only 311.0 total yards of offense and only 5.1 yards per play. Not great but not bad. Like I said, I think this game goes way OVER in the end. On the ground, Shanahan continues to run the ball 30+ times per game and the Broncos average 149.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 4.5 yards per carry. Here's the problem. Denver and Cutler are nothing without a decent running attack. Cincinnati is allowing only 82.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games so the honus is going to be on Cutler exclusively to bring his team back. Cutler is completing 58.5% of his passes the last three weeks while averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt. However, he has been sacked 8 times in those games and has thrown 3 interceptions which is not good because the Bengals sure know how to bring some pressure and Cutler could be forced into some very bad decisions. The Bengals are allowing only 5.8 yards per pass attempt the last three games and the main reason for them not having success against the Colts was because they couldn't get to Manning. They won't have that problem this week. Denver has fumbled the ball a whopping and incredible 11 times the last three weeks which surely doesn't have the signs of a playoff bound team. Cincinnati have forced 4 fumbles the last three weeks and somehow recovered three of those fumbles. Denver is converting only 33.3% of their third downs the last three weeks which is not good in a game that has shootout written all over it. I just don't see what the point of making Cutler the starter this season was and I think is the game where the people of Denver realize that Shanahan made this move half a season too early. I say the Broncos get smashed.
So now that Jay Cutler has one win under his belt, the Broncos have become favored by the same amount of points as Indianapolis against this Ocho Cinco team? Give me a damn break here please. Cincinnati is still one of the hottest teams around right now and just because they lost one game, don't believe or think for one second that they are going to sit around and not come back out swinging. The Bengals are still very much in the playoff mix and a win today would solidify that status even more and pretty much lock them up for a post-season date with another AFC opponents. The Bengals not only lost last week but they were embarassed which I am thankful for because it gave us a much better line for this game. Denver almost lost to Arizona at home last week even though the scoreline makes it look like it was a blowout. Arizona's offense moved deep into Denver terrirtory without problems on almost all their drives and seeing that the Bengals offense is about 10 times better, expect much of the same in this game.
Trend of the Game: Denver is 0-5 ATS in their last five home games versus teams with a winning record.
Cincinnati 30, Denver 21
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of you and your families!
:cheers:
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 43-31-4 (-198 .50 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-7-2 (-79.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-3-1 (+117.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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Sunday, December 24
Washington Redskins +2 (50 Units)
The Washington Redskins are coming off their most impressive win all season as they went into New Orleans and beat a very good Saints team who were coming off a big win of their own. Sure it doesn't fix their 5-9 season but it does give them momentum heading into the last two weeks of the season and that has to be encouraging. The Redskins can definitely be a very good team when they show up to play and they proved by beating New Orleans, Dallas and Carolina in the last seven games. That's two playoff bound teams and one team that still had a decent shot at the playoffs when they played against them. So you mean to tell me that they are going to have problems against the Rams? Cmon...let's keep this real. I see that every single predicitions expert is on St. Louis to win and cover but I just don't understand how you back this spineless team. Even Pro Bowl Selectors snubbed some of the best Rams like Leonard Little which goes to show you how bad this team really is. Believe it or not, the Redskins have been the underdog in 4 of their last 5 games this season and they have not lost once against the spread (2-0-2 ATS). That's encouraging because it shows that the youth is interested in playing for next season which is exactly what they need. The Redskins come into this game averaging only 16.3 points per game in their last three games but they have done it on 383.3 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play so don't under estimate them. The Rams defense has allowed 25.3 points per game in their last three and also allowed 316.0 total yards and 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Ladell Betts is coming out of shell and is emerging as a star. Betts has rushed for 100+ yards in three straight games. He is averaging 98.3 rushing yards per game indoors on the season compared to only 58.0 rushing yards per game outdoors. Washington has rushed for 182.7 yards per game in their last three on 5.2 yards per carry. We all know St. Louis has horrendous run defense so if Betts gets enough carries, he'll expose that weak run defense almost right away. That should make things comfortable for QB Jason Campbell who has had a tough time completing passes but when he does, they for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. His offensive line has done a great job as of late giving him the protection he needs and as long as he can cut down on the INT's, the Redskins should have no problems here. The Rams defense is allowing their last three QB opponents to complete 61.6% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. What I do like about Campbell is that he has lead this team to a 41.9% third down conversion rate over the last three weeks which shows great composure. The Redskins have been horrendous in the Red Zone but luckily the Rams allow touchdowns 50% of the time from in there the last three weeks. The Rams have also been getting killed on kickoff returns as of late which means Rock Cartwright, who is a pretty damn good returner, could give the Skins good field position most of the afternoon.
The St. Louis Rams are somehow still chasing a playoff spot in the NFC and believe it or not, should they win their last two remaining games, they have a great chance of getting it. Whatever...that's the story of the NFC for you these days and it has become a complete joke. The Rams might be a little bit overpriced in this game because they are coming off a 20-0 win over the Oakland Raiders in Oakland but judging by the way the Raiders have looked this season, I don't doubt that many college teams could give them a run for their money. St. Louis was actually the underdog last week against those Raiders which makes it quite funny that they have all of a sudden been made the favorites in another game between pieces of trash. The Rams only three wins during their recent 3-7 slide have been against the Raiders last week, the Niners by a Field Goal and the Packers by a field goal back in early October. That's it and that's all. Washington is definitely 2 or 3 notches above all three of those teams if you ask me which is why I don't see how the Rams are going to have success in this game as the home favorite (a roll they have sucked in for a few years now). St. Louis just isn't what they used to be when Mike Martz was here and it's time accept it. The Rams are averaging only 22.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 359.3 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. Washington's defense has been so-so all season but in their last three games they have allowed only 18.3 points per game and even more impressive is that they allowed only 300.7 total yards and 5.5 yards per play in those games. This defense is no stranger to playing in Domes so this shouldn't be a problem. On the ground, RB Stephen Jackson could have a big day seeing that the Rams have rushed for 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games and the Redskins have allowed 142.0 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry in their last three games this season. That's okay. When these two teams met last season, Jackson was held to only 24 yards on only 11 carries and the Skins should know what to do in this game. In the air, QB Marc Bulger is completing only 59.0% of his passes for a measly 5.9 yards per pass attempt the last three weeks while being sacked 11 times and throwing 4 interceptions during that span of games. Greg Williams is a good defensive coordinator and knowing that the Rams offensive line sucks, he is most definitely going to bring some heavy pressure and force Bulger into making stupid mistakes. Washington is only allowing a 57.1% completion rate in their last three games for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The Rams have fumbled the ball 4 times the last three games but somehow recovered all of them which won't be the case in this game. The Rams are converting only 31.8% of their 3rd downs in the last three games which is really not good considering the Redskins have allowed many third downs to be converted against teams like the Saints. There is currently little or no life on the Rams special teams which is going to make it all that more difficult to win this game for these guys without having some breaks on the return game. I think St. Louis is done for the year today and the Redskins will show us how their win last week in New Orleans and their win against Dallas a month ago were not fluke wins.
What I can't understand is why the public perception of St. Louis is still the one of the Mike Martz days when this offense was powerful at home and on the road and where they kicked pretty much every defenses ass along the way. St. Louis had the second easiest schedule in this NFL this season yet they could only manage 20.7 points per game. Pathetic. Meanwhile, Washington had the 12 toughest schedule in the NFL this season yet they managed to score almost as many points per game as the Rams. What I am trying to say here is that I don't understand how the Rams are the favorite in this game? Washington is playing for next year, they are shining while trying to do it and St. Louis somehow still thinks they are a playoff team and they can wins games like these. My guess is the Washington defense has another good game and Betts gives us all a nice start to the X-Mas Eve festivities.
Trend of the Game: Washington is 11-2-3 ATS in their last 16 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
Washington 16, St. Louis 14
Arizona Cardinals +4 (50 Units)
The Arizona Cardinals come into this game as a 4-10 team on the season but had they all been healthy all season long and had Matt Leinart developped a little quicker than he did, I don't have any doubt in my mind that the Cardinals would be pushing for a playoff spot. This team is not as bad as their record indicates which makes lines like this all that more sweet. The Cardinals did suck this year and they failed to beat any decent team in the NFL which is another reason why they have to win games like this one against the second worst team in the NFL this season. Arizona was stunned last week 37-20 in Denver but they did play well in that game and they did come close to making a miraculous comeback for the ages. The entire team looked comfortable but too bad it was an inevitable win for new QB Jay Cutler in that one or else I think the Cardinals could have won that game. Prior to that though, the Cardinals beat St. Louis, Seattle and Detroit and you really can't forget that they have now covered 4 of their last 5 games with the only loss coming last week against those Broncos. The injury list for the Cardinals is very short right now and all the youth is probably dying to make an impression for the future. The Cardinals are averaging a whopping 27.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done it by averaging 318.7 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. The San Francisco defense is allowing a whopping 26 points per game in their last three games and they have done it by also allowing 365.0 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Edgerrin James has run the ball a lot better the last three games, rushing for 115 yards twice and 60+ yards the other time. James is up against a San Francisco defense that has allowed 139.7 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry in their last three games and if he can get going on the ground early, the Cardinals will have no problem winning this game. In the air, Leinart is completing a decent 60.2% of his passes the last three weeks for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked only 4 times during those games which is a huge improvement from earlier on this season when he was taking sacks left and right. The Niners pass defense is actually decent so this game should be low scoring as they allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt but don't have much of a pass rush and don't have many big playmakers in their secondary. Arizona is converting a whopping 44.7% of their 3rd down chances the last three weeks and they have been red hot once inside the Red Zone when it comes to scoring touchdowns. The X-Factor in this game though will probably be the return game of Troy Walters who has averaged 18.6 yards per punt return the last three weeks. The Cardinals are playing some very good football as of late and like I said before, they are definitely the better of the two teams in this game and Leinart should be inspired by another trip back to his home state.
The San Francisco 49ers were on National TV the last time we saw them and I know exactly what most bettors are thinking for this game. They are thinking that the Niners blew away the Seahawks in that game and that this is a team on the big time rise...right? WRONG! The Niners were being controlled in every aspect of that game versus Seattle until a freak pass by Alex Smith from his own 8 yard line or something, changed the entire face of that game. Even after that, the Niners didn't do crap to be favored by this many points at home which is why I don't see them having that kind of success in this game today. San Francisco had lost three games in a row prior to their big win over Seattle so why should we believe that they have turned things around enough for us to back them? This is the same Niners team that lost to both St. Louis and Green Bay in the span of the last month which is definitely not good news for them. Sure Frank Gore has been one of the best RB's in the NFL this season but Alex Smith has been so-so and the Niners offense is going to be without one of their main deep threats in Antonio Bryant who has been suspended for four games by the NFL. The Niners are averaging a pathetic 17.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done it by averaging 310.7 total yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. That clearly indicates that the Niners go for the home run ball or they don't do anything at all. Arizona's defense has allowed 26.0 points per game in their last three games on 368.0 total yards and 5.7 yards per play but they are a lot better than that and it should start to show in these last two games of the season. On the ground, Gore has led this team to 143.7 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry in their last three but Arizona did a good job of stuffin some runs last week and they are allowing only 111.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games. As long as they can contain Gore, they should have no problems shutting down the passing attack. Without Antonio Bryant, the field won't be stretched out and the Cardinals can load up big time. Alex Smith is completing only 48.8% of his passes the last three weeks for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. He has not been sacked much but he has thrown 5 interceptions in his last three games and has a QB Rating of only 59.0 in those games. Bryant was his favorite target and now he's out for the game. Arizona's secondary has it's fair share of problems lately but this should be a great time to improve and start playing some shutdown defense like they did in a few games earlier this season. The Niners are taking 7.0 penalties per game in their last three games which is 2 more than the Cardinals. They are also converting only 32.5% of third down chances in those games and their special teams have not made many big plays. The Niners are averaging only 4.0 first half points the last three games while Arizona have averaged 14.7 first half points in their last three games. As long as the Cards jump out to an early lead, the lights will be out early in this game.
The funny thing about this game is that the public has fallen in love with a San Francisco team that is still as bad as it gets in the NFL but that is coming off an impressive performance on National TV. I don't know how much the Niners care for this game but I do know that Arizona has a lot to play for here because their season most definitely is not complete. All the injuries Arizona had this year makes them sort of in mid-season mode right now and they way they play right now is going to tell the coaching staff and upper management what they are looking at for next year. Leinart has a great core of players in front of him when they are healthy and as a young kid coming back to California for X-Mas, he should be licking his chops at the chance to make an impact here. Alex Smith on the other hand was probably up late last night partying away after the Utah (alma mater) win and I think the Cardinals can make Leinart look like the better of the two QB's.
Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points.
Arizona 10, San Francisco 9
Cincinnati Bengals +3 (50 Units)
The Cincinnati Bengals have been bothered by their embarassing Monday Nigth loss to the Colts all week now and they have been very eager to get back onto that field and beat the crap out of someone for a blowout of their own. Well for those of you who don't have anything to do after 4:00pm on Christmas Eve, I can almost guarantee you that you are in for one hell of a display by the Bengals here. The total for this game is set at only 44 points which is pretty damn ridiculous considering that Cincinnati have scored 27 or more points in three of their last five games. This is still one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL and seeing that the Denver Broncos are having big time issues on defense the last two months, it shouldn't take much for Carson Palmer and his crew to get back on track in this game. You also have to consider that they have not had much time to sit there and think about this game while in Denver because the snow was so bad that their schedule got messed up. However, the Broncos are in the same situation and that could be a distraction for them as well. Just don't forget that Cincinnati had beatean Baltimore and New Orleans during their four game win streak prior to Monday Night. The Bengals are averaging only 18.7 points per game in their last three games but they have done it by also averaging 337.0 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. Denver's defense was ranked in the TOP 5 at the beginning of the year but their decline has been incredible as of late and they are allowing 30.3 points per game in their last three games on 328.0 total yards and 5.7 yards per play. On the ground, RB Rudi Johnson has not been running the ball well but much like other teams who have come here with passing attack threats, he should have some open holes to work with. Denver is allowing 4.1 yards per carry in their last three games and Johnson could have a huge game. In the air, Carson Palmer is completing 62.9% of his passes over the last three weeks and he has done it by averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt while throwing 3 interceptions. His offensive line is weakening a bit but as long as he is quick in this game, scoring points should not be an issue tonight. Denver's defense is allowing a whopping 7.3 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and since Chad Johnson and his great receving corps had a night off on Monday, I expect them to be back in action for this big game. Once the Bengals reach the Red Zone, they have converted entires to touchdowns only 41.7% of the time the last three weeks but Denver is allowing a 61.5% conversion rate inside the Red Zone the last three weeks so there are no excuses for not getting in there this week. None whatsoever. The key to this game will be to get a fast start if you are the Bengals. Score first in this game and the lights will be out, I can tell you that much right now.
The Denver Broncos are 8-6 on the season, just like their counterpart Cincinnati Bengals are as well. The only problem here is that there are several other AFC teams with very weak schedules to end their seasons that could easily win their last two games and knockout the loser of this game. Eight wins in the AFC is definitely not enough for anyone to make the playoffs this season which makes this game even more interesting and important for both teams. Now that I take a look at the big picture of this season, Mike Shanahan's decision to take Jake Plummer out as the starter and put in the rookie Cutler is going to be judged by how the Broncos perform in this game. You really can't forget that Cutler's only win as a starter was against the Arizona Cardinals (gotta love the shit I talk about teams I bet on today). I have said time and time against that the spot was wrong for Cutler to be inserted as the starter because too much was expected of him right away. Other rookie QB's in the NFL were never under the same type of pressure (taking over a playoff team) which is why guys like Romo, Leinart and Vince Young have all done well. I don't think Cutler has the confidence just yet to win this game...not if Denver goes down a few scores early. The Broncos are averaging 25.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 330.7 total yards per game and 5.5 yards per play. However, Cincinnati's defense has been very good the last month or so and they have allowed only 17.7 points per game in their last three games for only 311.0 total yards of offense and only 5.1 yards per play. Not great but not bad. Like I said, I think this game goes way OVER in the end. On the ground, Shanahan continues to run the ball 30+ times per game and the Broncos average 149.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 4.5 yards per carry. Here's the problem. Denver and Cutler are nothing without a decent running attack. Cincinnati is allowing only 82.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games so the honus is going to be on Cutler exclusively to bring his team back. Cutler is completing 58.5% of his passes the last three weeks while averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt. However, he has been sacked 8 times in those games and has thrown 3 interceptions which is not good because the Bengals sure know how to bring some pressure and Cutler could be forced into some very bad decisions. The Bengals are allowing only 5.8 yards per pass attempt the last three games and the main reason for them not having success against the Colts was because they couldn't get to Manning. They won't have that problem this week. Denver has fumbled the ball a whopping and incredible 11 times the last three weeks which surely doesn't have the signs of a playoff bound team. Cincinnati have forced 4 fumbles the last three weeks and somehow recovered three of those fumbles. Denver is converting only 33.3% of their third downs the last three weeks which is not good in a game that has shootout written all over it. I just don't see what the point of making Cutler the starter this season was and I think is the game where the people of Denver realize that Shanahan made this move half a season too early. I say the Broncos get smashed.
So now that Jay Cutler has one win under his belt, the Broncos have become favored by the same amount of points as Indianapolis against this Ocho Cinco team? Give me a damn break here please. Cincinnati is still one of the hottest teams around right now and just because they lost one game, don't believe or think for one second that they are going to sit around and not come back out swinging. The Bengals are still very much in the playoff mix and a win today would solidify that status even more and pretty much lock them up for a post-season date with another AFC opponents. The Bengals not only lost last week but they were embarassed which I am thankful for because it gave us a much better line for this game. Denver almost lost to Arizona at home last week even though the scoreline makes it look like it was a blowout. Arizona's offense moved deep into Denver terrirtory without problems on almost all their drives and seeing that the Bengals offense is about 10 times better, expect much of the same in this game.
Trend of the Game: Denver is 0-5 ATS in their last five home games versus teams with a winning record.
Cincinnati 30, Denver 21
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of you and your families!
:cheers:
