MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Playoffs Internet Posted Record: 1-1 (+39.00 Units)
2006 NFL Playoffs Internet ATS Record: 1-1 (+39.00 Units)
2006 NFL Playoffs Predicted O/U Record: 2-0
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 58-41-6 (-96.80 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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2006 NFL Playoffs Internet ATS Record: 1-1 (+39.00 Units)
2006 NFL Playoffs Predicted O/U Record: 2-0
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 58-41-6 (-96.80 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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AFC Wildcard #2
New England Patriots -9.5 (50 Units)
The New York Jets were at one point 2-3 on the season, just coming off a 41-0 loss in Jackonsville. However, the Jets had one of the weakest schedules I could ever imagine, playing against only three playoff teams this season. As a matter of fact, the Jets come into the playoffs with a whopping 10 wins. Those wins came against New England, Tennessee, Buffalo, Miami (twice), Detroit, Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota and Oakland. Are you kidding me? You have to have lost your mind to be on the Jets in this game because even though in terms of talent they might be on the same level as the Patriots, coaching can be disasterous for some teams and I think the Jets are going to be a perfect example of this. Mangini is coming off an outstanding season but he might come in here thinking he knows a little bit too much about how the Patriots run their offense. I was surprised to see that Chad Pennington is 2-0 as a starter in Wild Card games but that doesn't mean that he can walk into this place and have the same kind of success. Sure the Jets won here back in November but that was then and this is now. The Jets come into this game averaging 19.8 points per game on the road as they also averaged 306.6 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play. New England's defense is allowing 16.1 points per home game this season but are allowing only 304.8 total yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB's Cedric Benson and Leon Washington have never played in a playoff game. The Jets average only 105.4 rushing yards per road game on 3.5 yards per carry. New England won't have any of that as they allow only 101.3 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry at home. In the air, QB Chad Pennington is completing 63.4% of his passes away from home for 6.9 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. However, New England's secondary is allowing only 57.4% of passes to be completed against them at home for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The Patriots should generate pressure on Pennington as they have 18 sacks at home this year. They also have 14 interceptions at home and if Pennington makes his usual road mistakes more than once, the lights will be out in a hurry in this game. Mike Nugent is definitely not one of the most reliable kickers around and nerves could be a factor for this kid. Kevin Barlow ran for 75 yards on 17 carries in the Jets win over the Pats in November which was the main reason the passing game was so hot. Barlow is out this time around and the Jets won't have any kind of success running the ball which is a must for them. As long as New England can contain Coles, Cotchery and McCareins, they should have no problems shutting down the Jets for the most part of this game. Don't worry Jets backers, you'll get some points but they won't be enough.
The New England Patriots are the New England Patriots and seeing that this is the playoffs, I could end my writeup right here and now and you would understand why I am on New England. Bill Bellichik and Tom Brady as a unit are 4-0 in Foxboro in the playoffs and I don't think that's about to change. In a game like this, as has been the case since Bellichik got here, you have to toss out all the stats and all the meetings between these two teams and concentrate on this one game and where things are heading in this game. What I mean by that is that as poorly as Tom Brady or the Patriots have played at times this year, this is what they live for and the playoffs are what they dream of. Sure one of their big time leaders Rodney Harrison is out for this game but that won't make a single difference because much like the Bears on defense, New England is all about compensation and not one player is considered better than all the others. The Patriots were a very impressive 10-6 ATS on the season. They lost only four games all season and won only two games where they didn't cover. Much like the Jets, the Patriots played against only one or two playoff bound teams but we already know how the Pats are at this time of the year. They come into this game averaging 20.6 points per game at home this season. They did that by averaging 321.9 total yards per home game on 4.9 yards per play. The Jets are allowing only 18.0 points per game on the road but some of the teams they have faced are just horrendous. They are allowing 333.8 total yards and 5.4 yards per play away from home. On the ground, RBs Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney rushed for almost 1600 combined yards. The Jets are horrendous against the run allowing 132.6 rushing yards per road game on 4.8 yards per carry but it's not like they can stack the box or anything because Tom Brady will pick them apart. Speaking of Brady, he is completing 61.4% of his passes at home this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt with 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. The Jets are allowing road opponents to complete only 56.5% of their passes for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. However, the Jets rely heavily on their pass rush which could be non-existent here seeing that Brady has been sacked only 11 times at home. The Patriots are all about distribution and they have 11 players on their team who have caught 10+ passes on the year. That's incredible and that works in game like this. I have to admit that the Jets have a great 3rd down defense on the road but it doesn't concern me here because I expect the Pats to get their yards in chunks. A steady dose of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney should keep things honest for the Jets and although Brady is not one to go for the deep bomb, we might just see him try some long passes in the open field. I really think the Pats get things together just in time for a huge Divisional matchup next week. Bellichik is not about to lose to his sneaky little apprentice Mangini and not only will he beat him, he will embarass him.
There are two things you need to know about betting in the playoffs and those are that 1) you just don't go against Tom Brady in the playoffs SU or on the spread regardless of how much you like the other team and b) you don't go against New England at home in the playoffs. The public perception of the Patriots is not that great right now seeing the way they have played the past month or so but it's Bill Bellichik, it's the playoffs and it's time to get down to business. The Jets are not a playoff worthy team (much like the Chiefs weren't either and I learned it the hard way). Who the hell are the Jets to have anyone back them? Is this because they won here on November 11? I sure hope not because there is a huge difference between this game and that game. The only playoff team the Jets beat this year was the Patriots but like I said before, pretend that game never happened. All you need to know is that Tom Brady is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) at Foxboro in the playoffs and those four wins have come by an average of 13.75 points. Really not smart to against them here. Harrison might be out but the Patriots have never ever depended on one or two players and they truly are the best 'TEAM' team in the NFL.
Trend of the Game: New England is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff home games.
New England 34, NY Jets 14
NFC Wildcard #2
New York Giants +7 (25 Units)
The New York Giants did what they had to do last Saturday Night and that was beat the Washington Redskins on the road to make it to the playoffs. For the first time in a long time, the New York media had something good to talk about. I know it's only one game but I think that one game is a blessing in disguise in the sense that a huge Mouse was picked up and tossed off the shoulders of the Giants who had lost six of their seven games before that. Playing against the Eagles for the third time in one season is not as ideal as Tom Coughling would want it to be but seeing that the teams have split the series and both times the road team has won, I would say he has to be happy sitting where he sits. Coughling also has to like his chances in this game with his team being a very profitable 5-3 ATS on the road. Talent wise, there is no question in my mind that the Giants are as good as it gets when healthy. Injuries have certainly piled up for the Giants but they just keep on trucking on and I like some of the matchups here. Were you not impressed with their near win over the Colts? Or how about their road wins in Atlanta and Dallas? The Giants come into this game averaging 26.9 points per road game this season. They also averaged 336.1 total yards of offense on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season. Philadelphia's defense took a few hits on the injury front this year but they allowed 18.9 points per home game on 331.6 total yards and 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, RB Tiki Barber is still waving goodbye but he doesn't want to go out without a bang. He has rushed for 108.6 yards per road game this seaosn on 5.2 yards per carry and I don't see him having problems against a Philadelphia defense that has allowed 145.3 rushing yards per home game on 4.5 yards per carry. In the air, QB Eli Manning has to have nightmares about the 23-0 loss to Carolina in last year's playoffs but playing outside of New York can only do him some good. He is completing 57.0% of his passes on the road this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Manning has thrown twice as many TD passes on the road as he has at home with all the pressures on him. Philly is allowing only 5.5 yards per pass attempt at home this season and will surely be looking to put pressure on Manning since that's how you beat him. That's why it's so important for Eli to make sure he moves quickly and always be aware of where Trent Cole might be. Eli has to forget about the long bomb passes in this game and concentrate more on hitting Jeremy Shockey on the short pass and Tiki Barber on the screen of dump pass. This is not going to be easy with the loud sounds of the home crowd but since Eli has been here twice already, I think he can get things done.
The Philadelphia Eagles, and this is getting old to here, had their season pretty much go down the guttern when Donovan McNabb got injured and was deemed out for the year but in came Jeff Garcia to the rescue and for the last time, Garcia is better suited to run this offense than McNabb. It's not a talent thing, it's more of a change of scenery thing for the Eagles and it has worked to perfection. However, I really hate betting on Garcia and the Eagles when they are favored because that's just not their thing. The Ealges had some big wins in terms of points at home this season but their home wins all came against non-playoff teams (apart from the Dallas win) and I am not impressed by a team that can beat Green Bay, Washington, Carolina and Atlanta on their home turf. The point here is that Phiadelphia is definitely fine without McNabb but they have not been impressive enough as favorites for me to back them. Since the injury to McNabb, the Eagles have been favored three times and are 0-2-1 ATS in those games. I know it was strategy to remove the starters after 6:00 minutes last week against the Falcons knowing they had already clinched, but how much momentum does that give this team? The Eagles come into this game averaging 23.8 points per home game and they have done that by averaging 380.5 total yards per game on 6.0 yards per play. The Giants have had their fair share of problems on defense but they allowed 24.1 points per game on the road for 388.1 total yards and 5.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Brian Westbrook averages only 60.7 rushing yards per home game this season. However, the Giants are allowing only 118.9 rushing yards per road game on 4.1 yards per carry so don't expect too much out of the ground game. It's not like Andy Reid wants to run anyways. In the air, Garcia is completing only 52.7% of his passes at home this season for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. He has not thrown an interception at home this season and if he wants, can take advantage of the fact that the Giants allow 7.1 yards per pass attempt on the road. However, Garcia has not been hitting his receivers on the deep ball at home this year and if he makes a mistake or two, the Giants won't miss out on the interception (they have 12 on the road). The Giants secondary is going to have to make some plays in this game if they want a shot at the win. The best way to play good defense is to start with offense.
I don't know what Vegas was thinking with this line but I am glad that the public seems divided when it comes to taking sides here. I think the fact that the Eagles have been on the big time rise since Jeff Garcia took over and the fact that the Giants were in a huge freefall but still made the playoffs is the main reason for the line being where it is. I just don't understand how you can ignore the fact that Eli Manning is 2-0 as a starter in Philadelphia winning both times in overtime. What I saw in that last game of the season from the Giants was some big time passion. I know Jeff Garcia is experienced and is the better of the two quarterbacks on this team but destiny could come into play here and since the Giants are a very talented team, they are one like a raging fire needing one little spark to get them going. Last year the feel good story was all about Jerome Bettis and the Steelrs improbable run to the Super Bowl so could this be the year of Tiki Barber? Was that why he announced his retirement? Not quite but it would be a good story and like I said before, when the Giants play at the top of their game, they are almost unstoppable. I think the win last Saturday has this team ready to rumble in the playoffs. I'll take Eli to shock everyone.
Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
NY Giants 24, Philadelphia 20
:cheers:
