MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Playoffs Internet Posted Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 NFL Playoffs Internet ATS Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 NFL Playoffs Internet O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 58-41-6 (-96.80 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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2006 NFL Playoffs Internet ATS Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 NFL Playoffs Internet O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 58-41-6 (-96.80 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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AFC Wildcard #1
Kansas City Chiefs +7 (10 Units)
This is it. The Kansas City Chiefs were given a second chance at NFL life as they somehow got into the playoffs last weekend when all hope looked lost coming into their final game against the Jaguars. What both teams didn't know in that game is that Denver was goingt to lose later that afternoon so the party celebrations were held off until the later hours of the night for the Chiefs. Doesn't really matter because in the end, they made it to the playoffs. It had been quite some time since the Chiefs had made anyone money, probably since Trent Green had been out. Well Kansas City ended the year with a 2-0 ATS bang beating both the Raiders and Jaguars and looking good doing so. The key to this game and to covering these seven points, is going to be to keep Peyton Manning and his offense right off that field because we all know that Indy's passing game versus KC's defense will equal into some quick scores for the home team. My only concern with Green being back is that the offense has scored 20+ points in only 2 of 7 games since his return while Damon Huard led this team to 5 games of 20+ points. Green will start this game but I don't mind if Huard comes in at any point in time. The Chiefs come into this game averaging 20.7 points per game on the year. They have scored that many points by averaging 321.4 total yards per game on 5.3 yards per play this season. Indianapolis is allowing 22.5 points per game this season and they have done so by also allowing 332.3 total yards per game on 5.7 yards per play. On the ground is where the Chiefs will win or lose this game. RB Larry Johnson is the #2 running back in the AFC and he rushed for 1789 yards this season and 17 touchdowns. As we all know, Indianapolis has the worst run defense in the NFL so if Johnson can have a decent game, the Chiefs will keep this one close. The Chiefs average more than 30:00 minutes of time possession per game this season which is going to be crucial in this game. In the air, the Chiefs QB's have completed 60.4% of their passes this year for 6.7 yards per pass attempt which could be good because the Colts are weak against the underneath pass. Indianapolis is allowing opponents to complete a whopping 64.2% of their passes this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. They have only 26 sacks on the year so the fact that Johnson can run the ball well in this game will determine how many times Freeney can put pressure on Green. The Chiefs are converting 40.6% of their 3rd down chances this season which is great news considering that Indianapolis was almost dead last on 3rd down defense allowing 47.1% to be completed against them. Another key to this game might be that Indianapolis has been horrendous all year on special teams defending punt and kickoff returns. Dante Hall is still one of the most dangerous guys in the league and if given the chance, will surely make the Colts pay. As long as Kansas City runs, runs and then runs some more, this game won't be easy for the Colts offense to get going and the Chiefs could easily come out with a win.
The Indianapolis Colts are always going to be Peyton Manning's team but can they finally get to the Super Bowl and get rid of all the 'Playoff Choker' labels? I doubt it. This is just not the same Indianapolis team as years past and that will be all that more evident this year. In the earlier part of the year, the Colts got off to their usual 9-0 start to the season which surprised nobody but it only took one game for everyone to realize that this Colts team is just not the same and that any given team on any given Sunday (in this case Saturday) is capable of beating them. Sure the Colts have all the fire power in the world to beat just about any team in the NFL but their defense has been to marginal keeping Manning and the offense off the field for extended periods of time this season. In their last five games of the season, Indianapolis lost to Houston, Jackonsville and Tennessee which clearly tells me once again that this is a new edition of the Colts team and the old one that only lost 2-3 games a year is now gone. Tony Dungy has been rumored to be on his way out and possibly back to the college game but we won't hear about that until the Colts get knocked out of the playoffs. Indianapolis is averaging 26.7 points per game this season and they have done it on 379.4 total yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. Kansas City was supposed to have a much improved defense this season and I guess you can say they did as they allowed only 19.7 points per game this season and did so by allowing only 328.9 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, RB Joseph Addai has been great as a rookie but he is just that...a rookie going up against Larry Johnson an experienced and proven veteran. The Colts average only 110.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.0 yards per carry but how willing to stick to the rush are they? Kansas City is allowing 120.6 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry this season. In the air, Manning is completing 65.0% of his passes this year for 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 31 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Kansas City have 32 sacks on the year and if they can get any kind of pressure on Manning, he's going to be in trouble here. However, Manning relies heavily on the big passing plays to Harrison and Wayne but outside of those two, there aren't many threats. KC is allowing only 6.6 yards per pass attempt in the air this season with 15 interceptions. Jared Allen and Tamba Hali are keys to this game with pressure on Manning and as long as Kansas City can keep this offense off the field and make some big plays when they are there, they should have no problems having a shot to win this game.
This reminds me of the Bengals-Colts Monday Night game a few weeks back when Indianapolis was able to demolish the Bengals. However, the Bengals had no running game to speak of in that game and Carson Palmer forced the issue. With the Chiefs struggling in the passing game, they will no doubt be forced to stay on the ground most of this game which is exactly what Indianapolis does not want. Everyone was on the OVER in the Bengals-Colts game much like they will probably be on the OVER in this game but I don't know why. I mean if Kansas City can keep this thing on the ground, get the early lead and keep running all afternoon long, the Colts won't have a chance to do much and as predicted this game will not see as much scoring as originally thought by many. The public perception of the Colt is still the same because of Peyton Manning but it seems like a lot of bettors are smartening up and siding with the right team here. All you need is that running game and the Colts are in trouble. I consider Larry Johnson as having more than a normal running game so let's see what the Chiefs can do.
Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.
Kansas City 24, Indianapolis 23
NFC Wildcard #1
Dallas Cowboys +2 (50 Units)
The Dallas Cowboys, Bills Parcells, Tony Romo and Terell Ownes SHOW is in town and it's time for everyone to recognize a bad line by the oddsmakers. So has everyone given up on the Cowboys and on Tony Romo regardless of what he has done this season or what the Cowboys have done this season? That's fine because the fact that everyone is off the Cowboys bandwagon has me jumping right back on it. Yes the Cowboys have lost three of their last four games but it's a matter of sitting back, relaxing and getting a grip on things. For a very long time this season I had the Cowboys as the second best team in the NFL and a few games is not going to totally change that perception for me. I still strongly have faith in Tony Romo (even on the road) and I still have a lot of faith in Bill Parcells as a coach. I have been a lot more angry at play-calling by Mike Holmgren over the years than I have been with some Parcells play-calling. The offense is still a TOP 5 offense in the NFL and the defense, when it wants, can make some big enough plays to win games. The Cowboys come into this game averaging 26.6 points per game on the year and they have done so by averaging 360.8 total yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. Seattle's defense has been a big time disappointment most of the season as they have allowed 21.3 points per game on the year and have done it by also allowing 329.9 total yards per game and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, RB Julius Jones did not run well on the road (3.7 yards per carry) but Marion Barber did averaging 5.5 yards per carry with 9 touchdowns. Seattle is allowing 126.8 rushing yards per game this year but they have done so by allowing a whopping 4.6 yards per carry and I would put the rock in the hands of Barber here. In the air, QB Tony Romo has completed 65.3% of his passes this season for 8.6 yards per pass attempt, 19 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The offensive line is not that powerful so Romo has to be quick in this game. However, the Seattle defense is allowing opposing QB's to complete 59.3% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Seattle has only 12 interceptions on the year so Romo can breathe a little easier but the key here will be to convert third downs as they have all season at a 48.8% rate. The Seahawks have very weak defense in the Red Zone and that's not good news because Romo can just toss the fade to Terrell Owens all day or pound the ball inside with Marion Barber for big yardage gains. As long as the Cowboys don't make mistakes here, there is no way they can lose this game.
The Seattle Seahawks are in the playoffs....really? Wow...never woulda thought that after seing them a few times on National TV and seeing how poorly they execute things both on offense and on defense. However, the Seahawks play in the NFC and several garbage NFC teams have somehow slipped into the playoffs and the Seahawks are the most noteable of those teams. Now I know Seattle looked good the last two games of the season as they lost to San Diego by 3 and then beat Tampa Bay in the final game of the year but did you know that those two games were probably the only time Seattle has looked half decent the last two months? Hasselbeck and Alexander missed half the season together and like I have mentioned several times, that can go a long way into messing up rythm and chemistry on a football team and I have yet to see Seattle get things together in important games. They lost to San Francisco on THURSDAY NIGHT football at home and faced some of the worst teams in the NFL in home games this year. The Seahawks have 5 wins at home this season and those came against Oakland, Green Bay, Arizona, NY Giants and Minnesota. Of those teams, how many made the playoffs? The Seahawks are averaging only 20.9 points per game this season and they have done it by averaging only 311.1 total yards per game on 5.0 yards per play this season. On the ground, Shaun Alexander is averaging 89.6 rushing yards per game and all but he is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry this season and has lost three fumbles. Dallas has been solid against the run all season, allowing only 103.7 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry. That should force the Seahawks to go with QB Matt Hasselbeck who has completed only 56.6% of his passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 18 touchdowns and a whopping 15 interceptions. Dallas is allowing opponents to complete only 58.8% of their passes for only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Seattle's offensive line has allowed 48 sacks this year so I expect Demarcus Ware to have his way in this game and that alone is going to force Hasselbeck into some big time mistakes. The Cowboys also have 17 interceptions on the year and I would never trust a team like Seattle who have only converted 37.9% of their third downs this season. The Dallas defense has been heavily criticized the last two months but this is a great game for them to step up and show what they are all about.
What the hell is going on with these odds? Since when did Seattle become a better team than Dallas. I don't care if this game is played in Seattle, in Canada or in Dallas. The Cowboys are still a much better team than Seattle and the public have lost their minds if they think Seattle is going to come close to winning this game. I thought with a line like this, the public would be all over the Cowboys who apart from the last month or so, have shown signs of brilliance on offense and have sometimes shown signs of life on defense. Okay so the public money is once again even in this game but that only goes to show you how the NFL is so even these days and how many times are often favored when they have no business being favored. I have yet to see a good Seattle game where the offense has chemistry (since the injuries) and since I have not yet seen this, I would much rather bet on the team with the better offensive chemistry and that is the Dallas Cowboys. Also, how can you go against Terrell Owens in the playoffs? That's what the kid lives for.
Trend of the Game: Seattle is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games versus NFC opponents.
Dallas 31, Seattle 10
:cheers:
