MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 28-16-5 (+25.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 19-11-3 (+23.10 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-5-2 (+2.70 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 5-0-1 (+25.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
30-12-2 (71%) ATS in Football the last two weeks
*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.
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Sunday, October 21
Miami Dolphins -5.5 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Green Bay Packers are in big time trouble. I know there is probably still a lot of hype and a lot of public on the Packers when they are underdogs against teams like Miami but why should you hype these guys up. Take away Brett Favre and ask yourself if you would still be betting on the Packers in this game? You really have to look at this game like that. Pretend a mediocre NFL QB without the Hall of Fame reputation was the starting QB in this game and Brett Favre you have right in front of your eyes. Favre is completing less than 60% of his passes (which would make it the first time in about 8 years he doesn't complete 60%+ of his passes in one season), he has thrown 6 interceptions and his QB rating is currently hovering around the 80 point mark which is pretty damn bad by Brett Favre standards. We have to start facing the facts at some points and admitting to ourselves that Favre is done and that Favre does not have another chance to shine unless he joins a top NFL team which I don't see happening. It's a sad story but it's true. Green Bay is coming off a BYE week and playing on the road in their first game back (I think all teams have lost on the spread this season in this situation). The Packers are averaging only 17.4 points per game this season on 341.2 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. What I really like here is that Miami's defense is allowing only 13.0 points per home game this season on 243.5 total yards per game and only 4.5 yards per play. On the ground, the Packers might have RB Ahman Green back for the game but regardless of his status, the running game is a disaster with or without him. The Packers average only 79.5 rushing yards per road game on 2.9 yards per carry while Miami is allowing only 83.5 rushing yards per home game on 3.1 yards per carry. That means everything is on Big Brett in this game. Favre has been well protected by his offensive line but he is throwing one interception per game and averaging only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Miami's defense is very solid at home allowing less than 60% of passes to be completed against them for 6.3 yards per pass attempt and they also average 2.0 sacks and one interception per home game. This is a big game for the Dolphins and I see Green Bay struggling badly coming off the BYE Week.
The Miami Dolphins are back in the Sunshine State where they belong after playing three brutal road games. They are coming off a heart-breaking loss to the Jets in their road trip finale last weekend but what I really liked about that game is that we all got to see and Nick Saban got to see a side of his offense he had never seen before. We have seen this scenario playout several times in the NFL this season. The scenario I am talking about is the one where a team plays on the road and loses in a bad way in their road finale only to come home the next and kick the living crap out of their opponent. Anyways. This is probably the best spot you will ever get to take Miami as a big play all season. I don't mean to make this a big deal because it really isn't but WR Marcus Vick has been activated for the game and he has practiced with the team all week. I know he won't have much of an impact in this game but seeing that he has such a high profile attached to his name and Nick Saban knows what he is capable of, don't be surprised to see Harrington connect with Vick on one or two plays in this game. Nick Saban probably watched the tape of the 4th quarter of the loss against the Jets last week and is probably going to run a similar offense. I know the Dolphins averaged only 14.0 points per game on their road trip but their offense is coming alive and they averaged 322.3 total yards on 5.2 yards per play. The best part about that is that Green Bay is allowing 27.5 points per game on the road this season on 411.0 total yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. That's some bad defense. The running game is going to be important today and RB Ronnie Brown is going to have a good day. The Dolphins average 125.5 rushing yards per home game on 4.4 yards per carry while Green Bay is allowing 4.7 yards per carry on the road this season. However, I have a feeling Nick Saban is going to run a high powered offense in this one. QB Joey Harrington is getting comfortable and completing 61.8% of his passes in his last three games for 5.7 yards per pass attempt. That's nothing special but interceptions have been his problem and to tell you the truth, Green Bay doesn't have any big playmakers on defense and they have only one interception in their last three games. Harrington is going to have to read what he has coming his way and utilize the big plays open up the middle. Green Bay is allowing a whopping 8.0 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and it's time for a big game from this Miami offense. Expect some early fireworks and expect this game to possibly get out of hand before the half.
Sheep Group #1 is on the Packers today. Vegas has set them all up for failure. For whatever reason, the public just can't get enough of Brett Favre as an underdog even though he has covered only once as an underdog the last two seasons. Make sure you don't join the group of Favre supporters because Miami is finally back home and ready to rock.
Trend of the Game: Green Bay is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
Miami 27, Green Bay 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 (5 Units)
How could I be going against the big bad Eagles from the city of the Broad Street Bullies for the second week in a row? I mean that's almost like committing betting suicide right? Should I give you guys my money on this game right now instead of giving it to Pinnacle? Shut up and listen to what I have to say before you all get greedy and come into my thread and tell me how the Eagles are going to demolish this Tampa Bay team. Only the Gambling Gods knows what's really going to happen so yeah Philly might win by a lot but after capping this game, I have a feeling Philadelphia is not really going to come out playing as hard as they would had their opponent been anyone else. The Eagles are still 4-2 on the year and not in a bad position at all. They can't really afford to lose another game right now but winning in Tampa Bay is much easier said than done and you can just ask Cincinnati what they think about that. Apart from their road opener against Houston, has Philadelphia really looked all that good away from home? I don't think so. Allowing that many points in San Francisco is a joke to say the least and last week's fiasco loss to New Orleans has me thinking that this defense tends to lose focus on the road. The Eagles are averaging a nice 31.0 points per game in their last three games for 368.7 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play. However, Tampa Bay's defense is gaining confidence and allowing only 21.0 points per game in their last three games on 323.0 total yards and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Eagles average only 94.0 rushing yards per game in their last three on 4.4 yards per carry. Running the ball might be a good idea seeing that Tampa allow 4.1 yards per carry in their last three but watchout for LB Derrick Brooks to be all over Brian Westbrook in this game. In the air, McNabb has been completing only 55.7% of his passes the last three games (miss TO now bitch?) but usually goes for the HR ball and averages 8.5 yards per pass attempt in those games. However, McNabb O-Line doesn't look all that good and have allowed 9 sacks in their last three games. The Bucs are slowly but surely cutting down on allowing big plays through the air and ball hawking FS Will Allen is going to be my main man today. X-Factor? Philly is converting a pathetic 27.3% of third downs the last three games while Tampa Bay allow only 21.1% to be converted against them the last three games. The Bucs secondary is due for an interception and I see it coming in this game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally got that elusive first win last week and this could quite possibly have lit a much needed fire under their asses to get this season into gear. I keep reminding everyone that since QB Chris Simms went down, the Bucs have been in every game. They almost beat the Carolina Panthers the day Simms went down and then followed that up with a near win in New Orleans which was impressive to say the least with a rookie QB starting. Then came the big last minute drive last week that resulted in a game winning touchdown over the Bengals at home. When you think of it this team has played well enough to be 3-2 and the oddsmakers are not giving them the respect of a 3-2 team, they are giving them odds of a bad 1-4 team. Starting a rookie QB in the NFL is not an easy job but as I mentioned last week, QB Bruce Gradkowski is of the same level as Tom Brady and Big Ben Roethlisberger. In other words, he was drafted as an NFL-ready quarterback, something you don't find or hear about very often. Gradkowski has actually played a lot better than he is getting credit for and knowing that Philadelphia is going to come at him all day long, do you not think a good coach like John Gruden has not been coming up with a way to relieve Gradkowski of the pressure? The Bucs are averaging 19.7 points per game in their last three games on 305.0 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, this is going to be RB Cadillac Williams' day. Gruden wants to keep pressure off Gradkowski and running Caddy is the answer. The Bucs average 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games but Caddy has to work hard against an Eagles defense allowing only 3.5 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air, Gradkowski has to be very careful and very smart. He is completing 58% of his passes this season for 5.3 yards per pass attempt but has only thrown one interception and has had good protection from his line. The Eagles are going to come at him with all sorts of blitz packages but the Bruce should be ready. The Bucs are converting a decent 36.6% of third downs in their last three games while Philly's defense is allowing a whopping 39.6% of third downs to be converted in those games. Over the last three games, the Bucs have been very efficient once in the Red Zone and I look for that to be the difference in this game.
Sheep Group #2 is on the Eagles today. Your group is not as bad as as Group #1 and their love for Favre but your love for the Eagles needs to calm down. All is not right in the camp of Donovan and Andy. Vegas knows what they are doing by slapping this juicy but dropping line on the Eagles. They are asking for all you to meet at 1:00pm tomorrow so you can all get hit by the same train known as the Bucaneers. This is another trap play for the public and Vegas has the line right where I wanted it to be. Do you public players not know how good TB is a home a dog???
Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
Philadelphia 23, Tampa Bay 20
Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 (3 Units)
The San Diego Chargers are quite possibly the most dangerous offensive attack in the NFL today. The Chargers have the most talented up-and-coming quarterback in the NFL, they have the most explosive running back in the NFL and their defense is looking like one of the best the NFL has seen this season apart from the Bears. There really is no reason for the Chargers not to walk in here and come out with a touchdown win at least right? Wrong. What you all have to realize about the NFL is that even though a team can look like a Super Bowl contender one week, intangibles and playing conditions can quite easily make that same team look quite pitiful the next week. Now I am not saying that the Chargers are going to come in here and look bad but they are certainly going to have their work cutout for them a lot more than they have had all season long. Their visits to San Francisco, Oakland Baltimore featured a San Diego team playing against weak opposing offenses. I hate to break the news to you SD backers but this is the toughest house they have to play in all season and this is their biggest road test to date on the season. In their last three games the Chargers are averaging 28.0 points per game but on only 348.7 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. The noise is going to be downright annoying in this game and KC's defense allows only 306.7 total yards of offense per game in their last three on only 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, LT and company are averaging only 3.5 yards per carry and it seems like LT is having problems getting free for big yardage. He might have success today against a KC defense that allows 4.4 yards per carry in their last three but this is not ideal weather for LT. In the air, QB Philipp Rivers has never played in a hostile environment like the one in KC. Sure he is completing 66.0% of his passes the last three games for 7.0 yards per pass attempt but he will be up against a fired up KC defense that has a relentless pass rush and that are forcing 2.7 fumbles per game in their last three. The Chargers have enjoyed the last three games converting more than 50% of their third down chances but expect that to go down with the crowd noise and KC defense. Rivers combined with a pissed of rival makes me think the Chargers blow this game.
The Kansas City Chiefs could not have had a worst game than they did last week when they get blown out in Pittsburgh. However, I don't care who or which team was going into the Steel City, it didn't matter because the Steelers were on a mission much like they were for the Super Bowl last year and there was no chance in hell of anyone ever stopping anything they did. That game is done and now it's time for KC to re-focus on the task at hand and figure out what they should do next. Apart from their 41-0 home romp against the Niners, the Chiefs are still upset about getting trampled by the Bengals in the home opener and they have felt the need and urge to have another worthy AFC opponent walk into this house and take another shot at this defense. Like I said before, these two teams hate each other lot and the fans know this. Expect Arrowhead to be the loudest stadium in the Country on Sunday because a loss here and the 2-4 Chiefs are in big time trouble. Watching a replay videotape of the game against Pittsburgh last week, it almost seems like the Chiefs ran a big time vanilla offense in hopes of just ending the game as soon as possible. I know they did. The Chiefs are averaging 23.7 points per game in their last three games on only 282.3 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. San Diego's defense is good on paper the last three games but they do allow 5.1 yards per play which is quite is surprising. That tells me that it doesn't take much to put a 30 spot up on this San Diego defense if you can catch them sleeping. On the ground, would you believe the Larry Johnson and company are rushing for only 67.3 yards per game in their last three on only 2.5 yards per carry. It's time for Johnson to have a breakout game. The Chargers have not had many good runners test them yet this season and yet they still allow 4.1 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air, QB Damon Huard is a worthy backup until Trent Green comes back and he is completing 63.0% of his passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. His O-Line is going to have to work extra hard to provide protection and Huard has to be smart against a defense that has a lot of interceptions. The last three QB's San Diego faced managed to complete 62.0% of their passes. KC is a good third down team and they are going to have to utilize that at home against a Chargers defense that has been solid but that is untested. The X-Factor player in this one is KR and WR Dante Hall who is back from injury and who might make a big difference by giving the Chargers some much needed good field position. I like the upset a lot in this one.
Sheep Group #3 is on the Chargers today. You didn't learn your lesson in Baltimore with this Chargers team and you seem to still want to back them as they head into very hostile environments led by a rookie QB who is bound to make mistakes. Vegas has this line dropping to the point where people want to pound San Diego because it looks too easy but there is no sense in you guys getting suckered by this. The Chiefs are not a team to fade at home and believe me when I say that they are going to come out to play. Taking a look back, the road team has won only once in the last 10 meetings.
Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Kansas City 14, San Diego 13
Oakland Raiders +3 (1 Unit)
The Arizona Cardinals made me some mad cash last week when they took care of business on Monday Night Football as one of my big plays of the month and I ended up cashing on Leinart and friends. However, let me talk to you guys a bit about that game. The Cardinals had the game all locked up having played solid defense all night and keeping the Bears offense to a season low in amount of points. Arizona did not give up any points to the Chicago offense but still ended up losing the game in dramatic fashion at the end. Losses like that are next to impossible to recover from and I don't see how Arizona can come close to competing in this game. The Arizona bandwagon is in full steam rolling down the hill where the anvil is about to drop and ruin everything. Arizona is now the flavor of the month and I say that because the Leinart hype is on and everyone is talking about how the Cards can go anywhere they want and be the next big thing since they kept things close with the Bears. Hold on a sec here. This is still the same Arizona team who's only win has come against the Niners? Give me a damn break. Half the coaching staff has been fired and the locker room must be a mess on a short week. The Cardinals are averaging 17.7 points per game in their last three games on only 257.0 total yards and only 4.0 yards per play. That's pathetic. Oakland defense is actually a lot better than they get credit for as they are allowing only 282.7 total yards per game in their last three on 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Edgerring James just isn't the same and the Cards average 1.9 yards per carry in the last three games. Well Oakland is good against the run and they allow only 3.9 yards per carry in their last three. This is somewhat of a homecoming for QB Matt Leinart. The Oakland secondary is like swiss cheese but can Leinart take advantage? I think not. He is passing for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt the last three games and is getting sacked 3.0 times per game. Ouch. The Cardinals come into a hostile environment for this game and the fact that they are converting less than 30% of their third downs in their last three games is not good. I expect the Oakland defense to come out fired up after a very impressive Sunday Night performance against the Broncos last week. Arizona's offense has not shown anything even with Leinart and although they will score in this game, I don't see how they can come out of here with the win.
The Oakland Raiders are a horrendous 0-5 on the season but if you think they are going to go down easily and lose number six in this game, you have another thing coming guys. Oakland is not that bad of a team and they are not as bad as everyone has pegged them out to be. In their last home game, the Raiders had the lead and came very close to beating a Cleveland team that is quite similar to Arizona but things blew up late in the fourth quarter and the Raiders managed to blow that game. Even in the game against the Broncos, I thought that Oakland played well enough on both sides of the ball to give themselves a good chance of winning the game but things didn't pan out for them. Art Shell must be sick and tired of all the negative talk surrounding this team and if his ass wants to be coaching for a lot longer in the NFL, he needs to come out in this game, find a way to motivate his players and have them ready to kick some ass. Since 2002, the two teams have met three times here in Oakland and although Arizona won two of those three games, the wins came by only three and one points. That means that the Cards don't win big when they come to Oakland and their two wins in the last four years have come on a total of four points. The Raiders do average 14.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on a very respectable 284.7 total yards of offense and an even more impressive 5.4 yards per play. This offense is capable of big things (forget Randy Moss was on this team or what?). The Arizona defense is allowing 26.3 points per game in their last three games and I would even go as far as saying that Oakland's offense is probably a lot more effective than Chicago's offense. On the ground, the Raiders and Lamont Jordan are running for 144.3 rushing yards per game in their last three on 5.2 yards per carry. Seeing that Arizona is allowing 4.3 yards per carry in their last three games, I would say that Jordan is going to have a big game. He is eager to get back on the field in order to makeup for the lost fumble on Sunday Night last week. In the air, QB Andrew Walters is getting there. Sure he has 2 TD's and 7 Interceptions but you live and learn. We all know that Arizona is going to bring their usual pressure on Walters hoping that he commits turnovers because of his youth. I don't need to talk about any stats here because the matchup of the day has been set for both teams. WR Randy Moss takes on CB Eric Green who was a star last week in shutting down the Bears. There is a big time size, height and speed mismatch when these two go one-on-one so Walters has to anticipate pressure and know where Moss is at all times. This is Randy's time to make a name for himself as well. The Raiders do convert 32.4% of their third down chances in their last three games but the key in this game will be to keep the chains moving with a balanced attack that allows the rookie QB to have time to read the coverage and find the open jump ball man. This game should once again come down to the wire but I still really like the Raiders to cover the spread.
Sheep Group #4 is on the Cardinals today. The hype and the National Exposure is on for Arizona and I notice thats more and more people are going with the Cardinals based on the info they have gathered from that one Monday Night game. Since the Raiders are 0-5, the betting public is fading them to a winless record this season but I am fading you public bettors to the bank right now with this play. Vegas has the line low enough where everyone is going to pound Arizona. I just don't see how it's going to happen with the emotional letdown and frustration felt by some of the Arizona players after the loss last week.
Trend of the Game: Arizona is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six as road favorites.
Oakland 30, Arizona 23
RECAP:
Miami -5.5 ***POM***
Tampa Bay +5.5
Kansas City +4.5
Oakland +3
Good Luck to all!
:14_4_103:
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 19-11-3 (+23.10 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-5-2 (+2.70 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 5-0-1 (+25.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
30-12-2 (71%) ATS in Football the last two weeks
*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.
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Sunday, October 21
Miami Dolphins -5.5 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Green Bay Packers are in big time trouble. I know there is probably still a lot of hype and a lot of public on the Packers when they are underdogs against teams like Miami but why should you hype these guys up. Take away Brett Favre and ask yourself if you would still be betting on the Packers in this game? You really have to look at this game like that. Pretend a mediocre NFL QB without the Hall of Fame reputation was the starting QB in this game and Brett Favre you have right in front of your eyes. Favre is completing less than 60% of his passes (which would make it the first time in about 8 years he doesn't complete 60%+ of his passes in one season), he has thrown 6 interceptions and his QB rating is currently hovering around the 80 point mark which is pretty damn bad by Brett Favre standards. We have to start facing the facts at some points and admitting to ourselves that Favre is done and that Favre does not have another chance to shine unless he joins a top NFL team which I don't see happening. It's a sad story but it's true. Green Bay is coming off a BYE week and playing on the road in their first game back (I think all teams have lost on the spread this season in this situation). The Packers are averaging only 17.4 points per game this season on 341.2 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. What I really like here is that Miami's defense is allowing only 13.0 points per home game this season on 243.5 total yards per game and only 4.5 yards per play. On the ground, the Packers might have RB Ahman Green back for the game but regardless of his status, the running game is a disaster with or without him. The Packers average only 79.5 rushing yards per road game on 2.9 yards per carry while Miami is allowing only 83.5 rushing yards per home game on 3.1 yards per carry. That means everything is on Big Brett in this game. Favre has been well protected by his offensive line but he is throwing one interception per game and averaging only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Miami's defense is very solid at home allowing less than 60% of passes to be completed against them for 6.3 yards per pass attempt and they also average 2.0 sacks and one interception per home game. This is a big game for the Dolphins and I see Green Bay struggling badly coming off the BYE Week.
The Miami Dolphins are back in the Sunshine State where they belong after playing three brutal road games. They are coming off a heart-breaking loss to the Jets in their road trip finale last weekend but what I really liked about that game is that we all got to see and Nick Saban got to see a side of his offense he had never seen before. We have seen this scenario playout several times in the NFL this season. The scenario I am talking about is the one where a team plays on the road and loses in a bad way in their road finale only to come home the next and kick the living crap out of their opponent. Anyways. This is probably the best spot you will ever get to take Miami as a big play all season. I don't mean to make this a big deal because it really isn't but WR Marcus Vick has been activated for the game and he has practiced with the team all week. I know he won't have much of an impact in this game but seeing that he has such a high profile attached to his name and Nick Saban knows what he is capable of, don't be surprised to see Harrington connect with Vick on one or two plays in this game. Nick Saban probably watched the tape of the 4th quarter of the loss against the Jets last week and is probably going to run a similar offense. I know the Dolphins averaged only 14.0 points per game on their road trip but their offense is coming alive and they averaged 322.3 total yards on 5.2 yards per play. The best part about that is that Green Bay is allowing 27.5 points per game on the road this season on 411.0 total yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. That's some bad defense. The running game is going to be important today and RB Ronnie Brown is going to have a good day. The Dolphins average 125.5 rushing yards per home game on 4.4 yards per carry while Green Bay is allowing 4.7 yards per carry on the road this season. However, I have a feeling Nick Saban is going to run a high powered offense in this one. QB Joey Harrington is getting comfortable and completing 61.8% of his passes in his last three games for 5.7 yards per pass attempt. That's nothing special but interceptions have been his problem and to tell you the truth, Green Bay doesn't have any big playmakers on defense and they have only one interception in their last three games. Harrington is going to have to read what he has coming his way and utilize the big plays open up the middle. Green Bay is allowing a whopping 8.0 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and it's time for a big game from this Miami offense. Expect some early fireworks and expect this game to possibly get out of hand before the half.
Sheep Group #1 is on the Packers today. Vegas has set them all up for failure. For whatever reason, the public just can't get enough of Brett Favre as an underdog even though he has covered only once as an underdog the last two seasons. Make sure you don't join the group of Favre supporters because Miami is finally back home and ready to rock.
Trend of the Game: Green Bay is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
Miami 27, Green Bay 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 (5 Units)
How could I be going against the big bad Eagles from the city of the Broad Street Bullies for the second week in a row? I mean that's almost like committing betting suicide right? Should I give you guys my money on this game right now instead of giving it to Pinnacle? Shut up and listen to what I have to say before you all get greedy and come into my thread and tell me how the Eagles are going to demolish this Tampa Bay team. Only the Gambling Gods knows what's really going to happen so yeah Philly might win by a lot but after capping this game, I have a feeling Philadelphia is not really going to come out playing as hard as they would had their opponent been anyone else. The Eagles are still 4-2 on the year and not in a bad position at all. They can't really afford to lose another game right now but winning in Tampa Bay is much easier said than done and you can just ask Cincinnati what they think about that. Apart from their road opener against Houston, has Philadelphia really looked all that good away from home? I don't think so. Allowing that many points in San Francisco is a joke to say the least and last week's fiasco loss to New Orleans has me thinking that this defense tends to lose focus on the road. The Eagles are averaging a nice 31.0 points per game in their last three games for 368.7 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play. However, Tampa Bay's defense is gaining confidence and allowing only 21.0 points per game in their last three games on 323.0 total yards and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Eagles average only 94.0 rushing yards per game in their last three on 4.4 yards per carry. Running the ball might be a good idea seeing that Tampa allow 4.1 yards per carry in their last three but watchout for LB Derrick Brooks to be all over Brian Westbrook in this game. In the air, McNabb has been completing only 55.7% of his passes the last three games (miss TO now bitch?) but usually goes for the HR ball and averages 8.5 yards per pass attempt in those games. However, McNabb O-Line doesn't look all that good and have allowed 9 sacks in their last three games. The Bucs are slowly but surely cutting down on allowing big plays through the air and ball hawking FS Will Allen is going to be my main man today. X-Factor? Philly is converting a pathetic 27.3% of third downs the last three games while Tampa Bay allow only 21.1% to be converted against them the last three games. The Bucs secondary is due for an interception and I see it coming in this game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally got that elusive first win last week and this could quite possibly have lit a much needed fire under their asses to get this season into gear. I keep reminding everyone that since QB Chris Simms went down, the Bucs have been in every game. They almost beat the Carolina Panthers the day Simms went down and then followed that up with a near win in New Orleans which was impressive to say the least with a rookie QB starting. Then came the big last minute drive last week that resulted in a game winning touchdown over the Bengals at home. When you think of it this team has played well enough to be 3-2 and the oddsmakers are not giving them the respect of a 3-2 team, they are giving them odds of a bad 1-4 team. Starting a rookie QB in the NFL is not an easy job but as I mentioned last week, QB Bruce Gradkowski is of the same level as Tom Brady and Big Ben Roethlisberger. In other words, he was drafted as an NFL-ready quarterback, something you don't find or hear about very often. Gradkowski has actually played a lot better than he is getting credit for and knowing that Philadelphia is going to come at him all day long, do you not think a good coach like John Gruden has not been coming up with a way to relieve Gradkowski of the pressure? The Bucs are averaging 19.7 points per game in their last three games on 305.0 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, this is going to be RB Cadillac Williams' day. Gruden wants to keep pressure off Gradkowski and running Caddy is the answer. The Bucs average 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games but Caddy has to work hard against an Eagles defense allowing only 3.5 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air, Gradkowski has to be very careful and very smart. He is completing 58% of his passes this season for 5.3 yards per pass attempt but has only thrown one interception and has had good protection from his line. The Eagles are going to come at him with all sorts of blitz packages but the Bruce should be ready. The Bucs are converting a decent 36.6% of third downs in their last three games while Philly's defense is allowing a whopping 39.6% of third downs to be converted in those games. Over the last three games, the Bucs have been very efficient once in the Red Zone and I look for that to be the difference in this game.
Sheep Group #2 is on the Eagles today. Your group is not as bad as as Group #1 and their love for Favre but your love for the Eagles needs to calm down. All is not right in the camp of Donovan and Andy. Vegas knows what they are doing by slapping this juicy but dropping line on the Eagles. They are asking for all you to meet at 1:00pm tomorrow so you can all get hit by the same train known as the Bucaneers. This is another trap play for the public and Vegas has the line right where I wanted it to be. Do you public players not know how good TB is a home a dog???
Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
Philadelphia 23, Tampa Bay 20
Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 (3 Units)
The San Diego Chargers are quite possibly the most dangerous offensive attack in the NFL today. The Chargers have the most talented up-and-coming quarterback in the NFL, they have the most explosive running back in the NFL and their defense is looking like one of the best the NFL has seen this season apart from the Bears. There really is no reason for the Chargers not to walk in here and come out with a touchdown win at least right? Wrong. What you all have to realize about the NFL is that even though a team can look like a Super Bowl contender one week, intangibles and playing conditions can quite easily make that same team look quite pitiful the next week. Now I am not saying that the Chargers are going to come in here and look bad but they are certainly going to have their work cutout for them a lot more than they have had all season long. Their visits to San Francisco, Oakland Baltimore featured a San Diego team playing against weak opposing offenses. I hate to break the news to you SD backers but this is the toughest house they have to play in all season and this is their biggest road test to date on the season. In their last three games the Chargers are averaging 28.0 points per game but on only 348.7 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. The noise is going to be downright annoying in this game and KC's defense allows only 306.7 total yards of offense per game in their last three on only 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, LT and company are averaging only 3.5 yards per carry and it seems like LT is having problems getting free for big yardage. He might have success today against a KC defense that allows 4.4 yards per carry in their last three but this is not ideal weather for LT. In the air, QB Philipp Rivers has never played in a hostile environment like the one in KC. Sure he is completing 66.0% of his passes the last three games for 7.0 yards per pass attempt but he will be up against a fired up KC defense that has a relentless pass rush and that are forcing 2.7 fumbles per game in their last three. The Chargers have enjoyed the last three games converting more than 50% of their third down chances but expect that to go down with the crowd noise and KC defense. Rivers combined with a pissed of rival makes me think the Chargers blow this game.
The Kansas City Chiefs could not have had a worst game than they did last week when they get blown out in Pittsburgh. However, I don't care who or which team was going into the Steel City, it didn't matter because the Steelers were on a mission much like they were for the Super Bowl last year and there was no chance in hell of anyone ever stopping anything they did. That game is done and now it's time for KC to re-focus on the task at hand and figure out what they should do next. Apart from their 41-0 home romp against the Niners, the Chiefs are still upset about getting trampled by the Bengals in the home opener and they have felt the need and urge to have another worthy AFC opponent walk into this house and take another shot at this defense. Like I said before, these two teams hate each other lot and the fans know this. Expect Arrowhead to be the loudest stadium in the Country on Sunday because a loss here and the 2-4 Chiefs are in big time trouble. Watching a replay videotape of the game against Pittsburgh last week, it almost seems like the Chiefs ran a big time vanilla offense in hopes of just ending the game as soon as possible. I know they did. The Chiefs are averaging 23.7 points per game in their last three games on only 282.3 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. San Diego's defense is good on paper the last three games but they do allow 5.1 yards per play which is quite is surprising. That tells me that it doesn't take much to put a 30 spot up on this San Diego defense if you can catch them sleeping. On the ground, would you believe the Larry Johnson and company are rushing for only 67.3 yards per game in their last three on only 2.5 yards per carry. It's time for Johnson to have a breakout game. The Chargers have not had many good runners test them yet this season and yet they still allow 4.1 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air, QB Damon Huard is a worthy backup until Trent Green comes back and he is completing 63.0% of his passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. His O-Line is going to have to work extra hard to provide protection and Huard has to be smart against a defense that has a lot of interceptions. The last three QB's San Diego faced managed to complete 62.0% of their passes. KC is a good third down team and they are going to have to utilize that at home against a Chargers defense that has been solid but that is untested. The X-Factor player in this one is KR and WR Dante Hall who is back from injury and who might make a big difference by giving the Chargers some much needed good field position. I like the upset a lot in this one.
Sheep Group #3 is on the Chargers today. You didn't learn your lesson in Baltimore with this Chargers team and you seem to still want to back them as they head into very hostile environments led by a rookie QB who is bound to make mistakes. Vegas has this line dropping to the point where people want to pound San Diego because it looks too easy but there is no sense in you guys getting suckered by this. The Chiefs are not a team to fade at home and believe me when I say that they are going to come out to play. Taking a look back, the road team has won only once in the last 10 meetings.
Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Kansas City 14, San Diego 13
Oakland Raiders +3 (1 Unit)
The Arizona Cardinals made me some mad cash last week when they took care of business on Monday Night Football as one of my big plays of the month and I ended up cashing on Leinart and friends. However, let me talk to you guys a bit about that game. The Cardinals had the game all locked up having played solid defense all night and keeping the Bears offense to a season low in amount of points. Arizona did not give up any points to the Chicago offense but still ended up losing the game in dramatic fashion at the end. Losses like that are next to impossible to recover from and I don't see how Arizona can come close to competing in this game. The Arizona bandwagon is in full steam rolling down the hill where the anvil is about to drop and ruin everything. Arizona is now the flavor of the month and I say that because the Leinart hype is on and everyone is talking about how the Cards can go anywhere they want and be the next big thing since they kept things close with the Bears. Hold on a sec here. This is still the same Arizona team who's only win has come against the Niners? Give me a damn break. Half the coaching staff has been fired and the locker room must be a mess on a short week. The Cardinals are averaging 17.7 points per game in their last three games on only 257.0 total yards and only 4.0 yards per play. That's pathetic. Oakland defense is actually a lot better than they get credit for as they are allowing only 282.7 total yards per game in their last three on 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Edgerring James just isn't the same and the Cards average 1.9 yards per carry in the last three games. Well Oakland is good against the run and they allow only 3.9 yards per carry in their last three. This is somewhat of a homecoming for QB Matt Leinart. The Oakland secondary is like swiss cheese but can Leinart take advantage? I think not. He is passing for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt the last three games and is getting sacked 3.0 times per game. Ouch. The Cardinals come into a hostile environment for this game and the fact that they are converting less than 30% of their third downs in their last three games is not good. I expect the Oakland defense to come out fired up after a very impressive Sunday Night performance against the Broncos last week. Arizona's offense has not shown anything even with Leinart and although they will score in this game, I don't see how they can come out of here with the win.
The Oakland Raiders are a horrendous 0-5 on the season but if you think they are going to go down easily and lose number six in this game, you have another thing coming guys. Oakland is not that bad of a team and they are not as bad as everyone has pegged them out to be. In their last home game, the Raiders had the lead and came very close to beating a Cleveland team that is quite similar to Arizona but things blew up late in the fourth quarter and the Raiders managed to blow that game. Even in the game against the Broncos, I thought that Oakland played well enough on both sides of the ball to give themselves a good chance of winning the game but things didn't pan out for them. Art Shell must be sick and tired of all the negative talk surrounding this team and if his ass wants to be coaching for a lot longer in the NFL, he needs to come out in this game, find a way to motivate his players and have them ready to kick some ass. Since 2002, the two teams have met three times here in Oakland and although Arizona won two of those three games, the wins came by only three and one points. That means that the Cards don't win big when they come to Oakland and their two wins in the last four years have come on a total of four points. The Raiders do average 14.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on a very respectable 284.7 total yards of offense and an even more impressive 5.4 yards per play. This offense is capable of big things (forget Randy Moss was on this team or what?). The Arizona defense is allowing 26.3 points per game in their last three games and I would even go as far as saying that Oakland's offense is probably a lot more effective than Chicago's offense. On the ground, the Raiders and Lamont Jordan are running for 144.3 rushing yards per game in their last three on 5.2 yards per carry. Seeing that Arizona is allowing 4.3 yards per carry in their last three games, I would say that Jordan is going to have a big game. He is eager to get back on the field in order to makeup for the lost fumble on Sunday Night last week. In the air, QB Andrew Walters is getting there. Sure he has 2 TD's and 7 Interceptions but you live and learn. We all know that Arizona is going to bring their usual pressure on Walters hoping that he commits turnovers because of his youth. I don't need to talk about any stats here because the matchup of the day has been set for both teams. WR Randy Moss takes on CB Eric Green who was a star last week in shutting down the Bears. There is a big time size, height and speed mismatch when these two go one-on-one so Walters has to anticipate pressure and know where Moss is at all times. This is Randy's time to make a name for himself as well. The Raiders do convert 32.4% of their third down chances in their last three games but the key in this game will be to keep the chains moving with a balanced attack that allows the rookie QB to have time to read the coverage and find the open jump ball man. This game should once again come down to the wire but I still really like the Raiders to cover the spread.
Sheep Group #4 is on the Cardinals today. The hype and the National Exposure is on for Arizona and I notice thats more and more people are going with the Cardinals based on the info they have gathered from that one Monday Night game. Since the Raiders are 0-5, the betting public is fading them to a winless record this season but I am fading you public bettors to the bank right now with this play. Vegas has the line low enough where everyone is going to pound Arizona. I just don't see how it's going to happen with the emotional letdown and frustration felt by some of the Arizona players after the loss last week.
Trend of the Game: Arizona is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six as road favorites.
Oakland 30, Arizona 23
RECAP:
Miami -5.5 ***POM***
Tampa Bay +5.5
Kansas City +4.5
Oakland +3
Good Luck to all!
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