MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 57-41-6 (-146.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 48-32-4 (-28 .50 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-7-2 (-79.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-3-1 (+117.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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Sunday, December 31
Minnesota Vikings +2.5 (50 Units)
The St. Louis Rams cost me some valuable moral and money chips last week when after letting Washington do everything possible to win that game but eventually still winning. Unreal. The Rams literally did everything they could not to win and not to cover but somehow the deadSkins managed to lose anyways and I was a big loser on the 2.5. The Rams are basically coming off two wins against Washington and Oakland which is worth about as much as the socks I have on right now. Minnesota is not that bad of a team with or without Brad Johnson. It was just two weeks prior to the Oakland game that St. Louis went on the road and lost 34-20 to the Arizona Cardinals. Their only road wins on the season have been in Green Bay, in Arizona and in Oakland. Considering the Raiders are as bad as it gets in the NFL, the Vikings won the other two games by a combined 5 points and that's against two other bottom feeders in the Packers and Cardinals. After watching the Redskins performance last night, it just reinforces my point that St. Louis is a lot worst than most people think, ranking almost dead last in three key defensive categories. The Rams are averaging only 16.9 points per game on the road this season and they have done it by averaging only 289.9 total yards per game and only 5.1 yards per play. Minnesota's defense has done a solid job all season and they have allowed 22.1 points per home game on 348.6 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, RB Stephen Jackson has rushed for 125+ rushing yards in his last two games (both Rams wins). Ironically, Jackson has rushed for 100+ yards only five times this season and St. Louis is 4-1 in those games and 3-7 when he doesn't. Minnesota's run defense is allowing only 55.9 rushing yards per home game on 2.9 yards per carry and I like their odds of holding Jackson to less than 100 yards. In the air, QB Marc Bulger has played well but he is much better at home and is completing 61.6% of his passes on the road for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has given up 27 sacks on the road so lookout here because Minnesota's Kevin Williams and Derrion Scott are sack hungry and Minnesota's secondary has 21 interceptions on the year (Smoot is out but he only had one). Minnesota has good Red Zone home defense, they have good 3rd down home defense and they have recovered seven fumbles on home turf this season after forcing 11 of them. Bulger will try to pass all afternoon but his lack of a running game is going to hurt his chances of avoiding mistakes.
The Minnesota Vikings obviously have nothing to play for but that's not the case for some players on this team going for contracts and playing spots on next year's team. The fact that Minnesota is still cutting guys who are complaining at this time of the year tells me that they still want to win games and they still want to head into next season on a big positive. Being 6-9 is not that bad but the Vikings struggled heavily in the second half of the season which pretty much did them in. The Vikings have actually had a very long time to prepare for this game having not played since December 21 in Green Bay where as poorly as they played, they still managed to keep the game close and still almost came out on top once all was said and done. They Vikes are only 2-7 in their last nine games which is the reason they put in QB Tarvaris Jackson in to see what the kid could do and if he could spark this offense. He looked good in relief a few weeks back against the Jets so we can't blame him for his poor performance in sloppy road conditions against Brett Favre. We really can't. The Vikings are averaging 18.0 points per home game this season and they have done it by averaging 348.6 total yards and 5.7 yards per play. The Rams defense has struggled all season allowing 18.7 points per road game on 345.1 total yards per game and a whopping 5.9 yards per play. On the ground, it is imperative that RB Chester Taylor run well. When he rushes for 100+ yards, the Vikings are 4-0 this season and I like my chances here seeing that St. Louis is allowing 146.3 rushing yards per road game on 4.9 yards per carry. Taylor's running should take some pressure off Tarvaris Jackson who has still done a decent job this season. The Rams are allowing their road opponents to complete 60.0% of their passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt but they do have a decent pass rush. The key for the Vikings is to let Jackson do what he does best and that is scramble around and run the football when things don't work in the air. The Rams allow 45.6% of 3rd downs to be converted against them on the road and their special teams have allowed big punt returns. As long as the Vikings stick to the run, make all their drives as long as possible, they should have a great shot at winning this game and I think Jackson is going to have a big game leaving no doubt in Minnesota's minds that he can be the QB here next season.
Everywhere I go, I see people saying how St. Louis is on a roll now and the Rams are making a big push for it. Okay so they have won two straight games...does that make them a much better team than the Vikings at home? Nope. Sure Minnesota has it's fair share of issues but they had those same issues at this time last year, yet were a -7 at home against St. Louis and ended up beating them 27-13. Okay Minnesota was an 8-5 team back then but still...the 9.5 point swing on the line from last year's game has me baffled. Bulger didn't play in that game and the Rams were garbage but Bulger on the road is not worth that many points and Minnesota's defense is so good that they can't be that many points worse than last year. The Rams only win when Stephen Jackson can run for 100+ yards (3-1 when he does) but I don't see it happening here. Bulger and the Rams seem to be in an offensive groove as of late but Minnesota's defense will play well enough to keep this game close. You all saw how bad Washington really is last night so why take the Rams?
Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 6-1 ATS at home in their last seven versus a team with a losing road record.
Minnesota 17, St. Louis 16
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 (75 Units)
Hit em once, hit em twice...no problem. Try and hit them a third time and this team is going to make you pay. All of a sudden everyone is calling for the Chiefs to come into this game and spank the shit out of Jacksonville. Can I please ask why when Jacksonville is coming off two tough games and two tough losses against two teams that are playing very well? If you combined Tennessee and New England's records over the last two months, they are a combined 11-1 (now that's come crazy shit) so it just so happens that Jacksonville ran into the hottest teams in the NFL at the wrong time. Now needing a win and needing a few miracles (NYJ, CIN and TEN would have to lose as well), the Jaguars are too prideful not to come in here and give it all they have. There's no reason for them to have a letdown and assume this season is over because we have seen crazy stuff happen in the final week of the playoffs and I wouldn't put it past the Jets to lose against the Raiders, or the Bengals to lose against Pittsburgh or the Titans to end their win streak and lose to New England. It's all possible. Jacksonville is averaging only 18.4 points per game on the road this year for 311.6 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. Kansas City's defense has allowed only 17.3 points per home and allowed 276.6 total yards per game on only 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, Jacksonville is averaging 156.3 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.7 yards per carry. The Chiefs have allowed only 88.1 rushing yards per home game on 3.4 yards per carry but I expect Maurice Drew Jones and Fred Taylor to have big games. In the air, QB David Garrard has recently shown that he struggles in big games but will he come back and prove us all wrong? Garrard has been about 10 times better on the road this year completing 65.6% of his passes (56.8% at home) for 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 5 touchdowns. Kansas City is allowing opposing road QB's to complete 61.2% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has struggled and is banged up for the Jags but Taylor and Drew Jones should both take some of that pressure off. Garrard is going to have to play his best game of the season and although the Jaguars are only 2-5 on the road this season, Garrard as a starter is 2-2 with wins in Miami and in Philadelphia...two tough places to play. The Jaguars show some class here and fight right to the end.
The Kansas City Chiefs have had one of the most up and down seasons in the NFL this year partly because guys have been injured here and guys have been injured and the excuses just keep piling up. Both teams are 8-7 heading into this game and both teams still have legit shot at making the playoffs. However, the Chiefs are 8-7 having had the 21st most difficult schedule in the NFL while Jackonsville is 8-7 having had the 5th most difficult schedule in the NFL this season. There is a clear difference in mind as to who should be favored in this game based on several intangibles. To make the post season, Kansas City would need to win this game and they would need Cincinnati, Denver and Tennessee to lose. I see the Jets losing to Oakland as a lot more probable than Denver losing to San Francisco but regardless, the Chiefs need to win and they know it. All I keep hearing left and right is how good Kansas City is at home in the month of December but how could experts say that when they looked like garbage against Baltimore a few weeks back? The Chiefs come into this game averaging 23.1 points per home game this season. They have done it by averaging 346.6 total yards per game as well as 5.6 yards per play on home turf. Jackonsville is allowing 21.6 points per road game this season and they have done it by allowing only 282.4 total yards away from home and only 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB Larry Johnson is a beast at home and they average 160.1 rushing yards per home game on 4.4 yards per carry. However, the Jaguars allow only 87.4 rushing yards per road game on 3.6 yards per carry. In the air, QB Trent Green has been atrocious at home, completing 60.0% of his passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. His QB Rating is 84.1 on the road but only 63.1 at home. Jackonsville has very good Red Zone defense and 3rd down defense on the road and the Jags have to continue making big plays on defense. Kansas City is quick starting team at home and they can strike like lightning. It's important for Jackonsville's defense to contain Johnson on the ground and attack Green to pad their 14 road sacks on the season. I have a feeling Kansas City will keep fighting all game but the Jaguars will make that one huge defensive play that seals the deal in this game and gives them a small shot at the playoffs.
Cmon little sheep...the Vegas begging continues for you to grab the Chiefs in this game because they are according to 4 different NFL EXPERTS, a very good 'December Home Team'. Pinnacle even did you all a favor and brought their line all the way down to -1 instead of -2 or -2.5 at other books just in case you like Kansas City sooo much that you had doubts of 1 or 1.5 points in your mind. Jack Del Rio about to lose three straight games and take himself out of playoff contention? Are you kidding me. Jacksonville is nowhere near as bad as the oddsmakers have made them in this game you guys might think I am crazy but even though they lost to New England and Tennessee (two hot ass teams), they are still one of the best teams in the AFC and they most definitely belong in the playoffs. The sucker bet here would be to take the home team thinking that they need to win to make the playoffs. However, overall talent is going to take over supreme in this game as Jacksonville is going to come in here and show some class regardless of their playoff fate. Coming off losses against teams that are 11-1 in their last six games combined, the Jags won't have a problem against a team that is 3-3 over that same span.
Trend of the Game: Jackonsville is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as underdogs of 0.5 to 3.0 points.
Jackonsville 30, Kansas City 20
Cleveland Browns +6 (25 Units)
The Cleveland Browns have won me some money this year and much like the New York Giants, it's a matter of picking your spots and going for gold. The only reason I am betting on this game is because I have given each team a fair chance to win this game seeing that neither is vying for a playoff spot. The Cleveland Browns are now going to go with their 3rd starting QB this season when Ken Dorsey gets the nod in this game. Who knows, another change of QB pace might be a good thing considering Dorsey does have 10 starts with the Niners over the last few years. I mean he did manage to pass for 8 touchdown passes in 10 games as starter for a pathetic San Francisco team so he could have some success. Derek Anderson and Charlie Frye are here for next year but Ken Dorsey is still trying to audition for a direct backup position in the NFL. The floor is yours Ken now do your stuff. No pressure or nothing on Dorsey because this will be the first time he completes a pass since 2005 and not one person in Cleveland is expecting the Browns to win this game. Cleveland is averaging 17.0 points per game on the road this season and they have done it by also averaging 270.1 total yards of offense per game and only 4.7 yards per play. However, Houston is allowing 21.6 points per game at home on 369.3 total yards and 6.4 yards per play. On the ground, RB Reuben Droughns has really struggled to run the ball. However, Houston is allowing 134.0 rushing yards per home game this season on a whopping 5.2 yards per carry and Droughns has played twice in his career against the Houston Texans and is averaging 109.5 rushing yards per game against them. Could this be the breakout game the Browns have been waiting for all year? I think so. In the air, Ken Dorsey has 10 career starts in the NFL completing 53.8% of his passes for 5.3 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Houston's defense has allowed opposing road QB's to complete a whopping 67.7% of their passes this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt so I give the Browns a very good chance of completing their first 40+ yard pass of the season. Dorsey is capable of getting the ball out there and Braylen Edwards, Kellen Winslow and Dennis Northcutt are all capable of making big plays. The offensive line is a mess but Houston's D-Line doesn't pressure QB's much at home so Dorsey should be fine. The Texans have intercepted only 3 passes at home all season and opponents are converting 44.7% of 3rd down chances against them. The Texans also allow a 62.5% TD conversion rate from inside the Red Zone at home and all of this is only making things easier for Dorsey to start his first game since last season. Northcutt has been great on punt returns all year on the road (15.3 yards per return) and I expect him to give Dorsey decent field position on more than one occasion in this game.
The Houston Texans could easily be considered a team on the rise after they beat the big bad Indianapolis Colts 27-24 at home last week but beating the Colts has become a common thing this season and it has become quite obvious that Indianapolis is just not the same as they used to be. Nonetheless, that was a big win for Houston but if you're betting on the Texans in their final game of the season, please consider the following things first. Houston lost 4 home games this season and those games were against Philadelphia, Washington, Buffalo and Tennessee. Out of those four teams, only one is in the playoffs for sure (but when Houston played them they weren't a playoff caliber team) and the others are most likely going to miss the playoffs. You also have to consider that David Carr's days are numbered in Houston and that the team will go after a different quarterback next season as has been rumoured all week. That has to be demoralizing for the guy specially coming off a win against Indianapolis. I expect a big letdown from Carr as a QB this week. The Texans come into this game averaging only 19.6 points per home game and they have done it by averaging 302.6 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. Cleveland's road defense has allowed 24.9 points per game on 376.3 total yards and 6.3 yards per play but that was against good teams like Baltimore, Cincinnati and San Diego. On the ground, RB Ron Dayne gets the nod again this week but as well as he played last week, Daybe is not a consistent running back. He averages only 64.0 rushing yards in his career against Cleveland which is not good seeing that the Browns allow 179.6 rushing yards per road game on 5.6 yards per carry this season. In the air, Carr has completed 68.6% of his passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt but only 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Carr has been sacked 40 times which can't be good seeing that Cleveland has 14 road sacks and LB Kamerion Wimbley is on the field with his 10 sacks on the year. Cleveland's pass defense is as solid as it gets as they have allowed only 53.6% of passes to be completed against them on the road for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 17 interceptions on the season. Sean Jones is a lethal safety with 5 interceptions on the year who can hit anyone on the field and is always there to make plays. Cleveland has allowed only 39.6% of 3rd down passes to be completed against them on the road and thier Red Zone defense remains as decent as it gets for the teams they have played against. I like the Browns to either win this game or lose by a field goal.
The Browns have all sorts of injuries on the offensive line, they are down to their 3rd and final string quarterback for this game, this is their last game of the season and it's on the road so why not go out there and have some fun? The line is obviously inflating because of Houston's 'I Shot My Load' win last week and much like other teams who have beatn Indy at time this year, there is a pretty big letdown the following week. Houston's offense is good but they lack consistency big time and giving up on the run might be a big mistake in this game. I know Cleveland has a lot of injuries on the board but their defense is underrated and the only reason they have allowed so much yardage and so many points this season is because the offense has given other teams great field position and the offense has the most 3 and outs in the NFL. This is a great spot for Cleveland to possibly make an impression for next year while Houston may not have worked so hard this week knowing the season is already over. Can the Browns please make me a bit more cash?
Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team with a losing home record.
Cleveland 16, Houston 14
:cheers:
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 48-32-4 (-28 .50 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-7-2 (-79.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-3-1 (+117.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)
*There are my plays. I post information for your use handicapping use only and not your wagering use. Tail if you wish, fade if you wish. You are all capable of making your own decisions.
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Sunday, December 31
Minnesota Vikings +2.5 (50 Units)
The St. Louis Rams cost me some valuable moral and money chips last week when after letting Washington do everything possible to win that game but eventually still winning. Unreal. The Rams literally did everything they could not to win and not to cover but somehow the deadSkins managed to lose anyways and I was a big loser on the 2.5. The Rams are basically coming off two wins against Washington and Oakland which is worth about as much as the socks I have on right now. Minnesota is not that bad of a team with or without Brad Johnson. It was just two weeks prior to the Oakland game that St. Louis went on the road and lost 34-20 to the Arizona Cardinals. Their only road wins on the season have been in Green Bay, in Arizona and in Oakland. Considering the Raiders are as bad as it gets in the NFL, the Vikings won the other two games by a combined 5 points and that's against two other bottom feeders in the Packers and Cardinals. After watching the Redskins performance last night, it just reinforces my point that St. Louis is a lot worst than most people think, ranking almost dead last in three key defensive categories. The Rams are averaging only 16.9 points per game on the road this season and they have done it by averaging only 289.9 total yards per game and only 5.1 yards per play. Minnesota's defense has done a solid job all season and they have allowed 22.1 points per home game on 348.6 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, RB Stephen Jackson has rushed for 125+ rushing yards in his last two games (both Rams wins). Ironically, Jackson has rushed for 100+ yards only five times this season and St. Louis is 4-1 in those games and 3-7 when he doesn't. Minnesota's run defense is allowing only 55.9 rushing yards per home game on 2.9 yards per carry and I like their odds of holding Jackson to less than 100 yards. In the air, QB Marc Bulger has played well but he is much better at home and is completing 61.6% of his passes on the road for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has given up 27 sacks on the road so lookout here because Minnesota's Kevin Williams and Derrion Scott are sack hungry and Minnesota's secondary has 21 interceptions on the year (Smoot is out but he only had one). Minnesota has good Red Zone home defense, they have good 3rd down home defense and they have recovered seven fumbles on home turf this season after forcing 11 of them. Bulger will try to pass all afternoon but his lack of a running game is going to hurt his chances of avoiding mistakes.
The Minnesota Vikings obviously have nothing to play for but that's not the case for some players on this team going for contracts and playing spots on next year's team. The fact that Minnesota is still cutting guys who are complaining at this time of the year tells me that they still want to win games and they still want to head into next season on a big positive. Being 6-9 is not that bad but the Vikings struggled heavily in the second half of the season which pretty much did them in. The Vikings have actually had a very long time to prepare for this game having not played since December 21 in Green Bay where as poorly as they played, they still managed to keep the game close and still almost came out on top once all was said and done. They Vikes are only 2-7 in their last nine games which is the reason they put in QB Tarvaris Jackson in to see what the kid could do and if he could spark this offense. He looked good in relief a few weeks back against the Jets so we can't blame him for his poor performance in sloppy road conditions against Brett Favre. We really can't. The Vikings are averaging 18.0 points per home game this season and they have done it by averaging 348.6 total yards and 5.7 yards per play. The Rams defense has struggled all season allowing 18.7 points per road game on 345.1 total yards per game and a whopping 5.9 yards per play. On the ground, it is imperative that RB Chester Taylor run well. When he rushes for 100+ yards, the Vikings are 4-0 this season and I like my chances here seeing that St. Louis is allowing 146.3 rushing yards per road game on 4.9 yards per carry. Taylor's running should take some pressure off Tarvaris Jackson who has still done a decent job this season. The Rams are allowing their road opponents to complete 60.0% of their passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt but they do have a decent pass rush. The key for the Vikings is to let Jackson do what he does best and that is scramble around and run the football when things don't work in the air. The Rams allow 45.6% of 3rd downs to be converted against them on the road and their special teams have allowed big punt returns. As long as the Vikings stick to the run, make all their drives as long as possible, they should have a great shot at winning this game and I think Jackson is going to have a big game leaving no doubt in Minnesota's minds that he can be the QB here next season.
Everywhere I go, I see people saying how St. Louis is on a roll now and the Rams are making a big push for it. Okay so they have won two straight games...does that make them a much better team than the Vikings at home? Nope. Sure Minnesota has it's fair share of issues but they had those same issues at this time last year, yet were a -7 at home against St. Louis and ended up beating them 27-13. Okay Minnesota was an 8-5 team back then but still...the 9.5 point swing on the line from last year's game has me baffled. Bulger didn't play in that game and the Rams were garbage but Bulger on the road is not worth that many points and Minnesota's defense is so good that they can't be that many points worse than last year. The Rams only win when Stephen Jackson can run for 100+ yards (3-1 when he does) but I don't see it happening here. Bulger and the Rams seem to be in an offensive groove as of late but Minnesota's defense will play well enough to keep this game close. You all saw how bad Washington really is last night so why take the Rams?
Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 6-1 ATS at home in their last seven versus a team with a losing road record.
Minnesota 17, St. Louis 16
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 (75 Units)
Hit em once, hit em twice...no problem. Try and hit them a third time and this team is going to make you pay. All of a sudden everyone is calling for the Chiefs to come into this game and spank the shit out of Jacksonville. Can I please ask why when Jacksonville is coming off two tough games and two tough losses against two teams that are playing very well? If you combined Tennessee and New England's records over the last two months, they are a combined 11-1 (now that's come crazy shit) so it just so happens that Jacksonville ran into the hottest teams in the NFL at the wrong time. Now needing a win and needing a few miracles (NYJ, CIN and TEN would have to lose as well), the Jaguars are too prideful not to come in here and give it all they have. There's no reason for them to have a letdown and assume this season is over because we have seen crazy stuff happen in the final week of the playoffs and I wouldn't put it past the Jets to lose against the Raiders, or the Bengals to lose against Pittsburgh or the Titans to end their win streak and lose to New England. It's all possible. Jacksonville is averaging only 18.4 points per game on the road this year for 311.6 total yards and 5.6 yards per play. Kansas City's defense has allowed only 17.3 points per home and allowed 276.6 total yards per game on only 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, Jacksonville is averaging 156.3 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.7 yards per carry. The Chiefs have allowed only 88.1 rushing yards per home game on 3.4 yards per carry but I expect Maurice Drew Jones and Fred Taylor to have big games. In the air, QB David Garrard has recently shown that he struggles in big games but will he come back and prove us all wrong? Garrard has been about 10 times better on the road this year completing 65.6% of his passes (56.8% at home) for 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 5 touchdowns. Kansas City is allowing opposing road QB's to complete 61.2% of their passes for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has struggled and is banged up for the Jags but Taylor and Drew Jones should both take some of that pressure off. Garrard is going to have to play his best game of the season and although the Jaguars are only 2-5 on the road this season, Garrard as a starter is 2-2 with wins in Miami and in Philadelphia...two tough places to play. The Jaguars show some class here and fight right to the end.
The Kansas City Chiefs have had one of the most up and down seasons in the NFL this year partly because guys have been injured here and guys have been injured and the excuses just keep piling up. Both teams are 8-7 heading into this game and both teams still have legit shot at making the playoffs. However, the Chiefs are 8-7 having had the 21st most difficult schedule in the NFL while Jackonsville is 8-7 having had the 5th most difficult schedule in the NFL this season. There is a clear difference in mind as to who should be favored in this game based on several intangibles. To make the post season, Kansas City would need to win this game and they would need Cincinnati, Denver and Tennessee to lose. I see the Jets losing to Oakland as a lot more probable than Denver losing to San Francisco but regardless, the Chiefs need to win and they know it. All I keep hearing left and right is how good Kansas City is at home in the month of December but how could experts say that when they looked like garbage against Baltimore a few weeks back? The Chiefs come into this game averaging 23.1 points per home game this season. They have done it by averaging 346.6 total yards per game as well as 5.6 yards per play on home turf. Jackonsville is allowing 21.6 points per road game this season and they have done it by allowing only 282.4 total yards away from home and only 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB Larry Johnson is a beast at home and they average 160.1 rushing yards per home game on 4.4 yards per carry. However, the Jaguars allow only 87.4 rushing yards per road game on 3.6 yards per carry. In the air, QB Trent Green has been atrocious at home, completing 60.0% of his passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. His QB Rating is 84.1 on the road but only 63.1 at home. Jackonsville has very good Red Zone defense and 3rd down defense on the road and the Jags have to continue making big plays on defense. Kansas City is quick starting team at home and they can strike like lightning. It's important for Jackonsville's defense to contain Johnson on the ground and attack Green to pad their 14 road sacks on the season. I have a feeling Kansas City will keep fighting all game but the Jaguars will make that one huge defensive play that seals the deal in this game and gives them a small shot at the playoffs.
Cmon little sheep...the Vegas begging continues for you to grab the Chiefs in this game because they are according to 4 different NFL EXPERTS, a very good 'December Home Team'. Pinnacle even did you all a favor and brought their line all the way down to -1 instead of -2 or -2.5 at other books just in case you like Kansas City sooo much that you had doubts of 1 or 1.5 points in your mind. Jack Del Rio about to lose three straight games and take himself out of playoff contention? Are you kidding me. Jacksonville is nowhere near as bad as the oddsmakers have made them in this game you guys might think I am crazy but even though they lost to New England and Tennessee (two hot ass teams), they are still one of the best teams in the AFC and they most definitely belong in the playoffs. The sucker bet here would be to take the home team thinking that they need to win to make the playoffs. However, overall talent is going to take over supreme in this game as Jacksonville is going to come in here and show some class regardless of their playoff fate. Coming off losses against teams that are 11-1 in their last six games combined, the Jags won't have a problem against a team that is 3-3 over that same span.
Trend of the Game: Jackonsville is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as underdogs of 0.5 to 3.0 points.
Jackonsville 30, Kansas City 20
Cleveland Browns +6 (25 Units)
The Cleveland Browns have won me some money this year and much like the New York Giants, it's a matter of picking your spots and going for gold. The only reason I am betting on this game is because I have given each team a fair chance to win this game seeing that neither is vying for a playoff spot. The Cleveland Browns are now going to go with their 3rd starting QB this season when Ken Dorsey gets the nod in this game. Who knows, another change of QB pace might be a good thing considering Dorsey does have 10 starts with the Niners over the last few years. I mean he did manage to pass for 8 touchdown passes in 10 games as starter for a pathetic San Francisco team so he could have some success. Derek Anderson and Charlie Frye are here for next year but Ken Dorsey is still trying to audition for a direct backup position in the NFL. The floor is yours Ken now do your stuff. No pressure or nothing on Dorsey because this will be the first time he completes a pass since 2005 and not one person in Cleveland is expecting the Browns to win this game. Cleveland is averaging 17.0 points per game on the road this season and they have done it by also averaging 270.1 total yards of offense per game and only 4.7 yards per play. However, Houston is allowing 21.6 points per game at home on 369.3 total yards and 6.4 yards per play. On the ground, RB Reuben Droughns has really struggled to run the ball. However, Houston is allowing 134.0 rushing yards per home game this season on a whopping 5.2 yards per carry and Droughns has played twice in his career against the Houston Texans and is averaging 109.5 rushing yards per game against them. Could this be the breakout game the Browns have been waiting for all year? I think so. In the air, Ken Dorsey has 10 career starts in the NFL completing 53.8% of his passes for 5.3 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Houston's defense has allowed opposing road QB's to complete a whopping 67.7% of their passes this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt so I give the Browns a very good chance of completing their first 40+ yard pass of the season. Dorsey is capable of getting the ball out there and Braylen Edwards, Kellen Winslow and Dennis Northcutt are all capable of making big plays. The offensive line is a mess but Houston's D-Line doesn't pressure QB's much at home so Dorsey should be fine. The Texans have intercepted only 3 passes at home all season and opponents are converting 44.7% of 3rd down chances against them. The Texans also allow a 62.5% TD conversion rate from inside the Red Zone at home and all of this is only making things easier for Dorsey to start his first game since last season. Northcutt has been great on punt returns all year on the road (15.3 yards per return) and I expect him to give Dorsey decent field position on more than one occasion in this game.
The Houston Texans could easily be considered a team on the rise after they beat the big bad Indianapolis Colts 27-24 at home last week but beating the Colts has become a common thing this season and it has become quite obvious that Indianapolis is just not the same as they used to be. Nonetheless, that was a big win for Houston but if you're betting on the Texans in their final game of the season, please consider the following things first. Houston lost 4 home games this season and those games were against Philadelphia, Washington, Buffalo and Tennessee. Out of those four teams, only one is in the playoffs for sure (but when Houston played them they weren't a playoff caliber team) and the others are most likely going to miss the playoffs. You also have to consider that David Carr's days are numbered in Houston and that the team will go after a different quarterback next season as has been rumoured all week. That has to be demoralizing for the guy specially coming off a win against Indianapolis. I expect a big letdown from Carr as a QB this week. The Texans come into this game averaging only 19.6 points per home game and they have done it by averaging 302.6 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. Cleveland's road defense has allowed 24.9 points per game on 376.3 total yards and 6.3 yards per play but that was against good teams like Baltimore, Cincinnati and San Diego. On the ground, RB Ron Dayne gets the nod again this week but as well as he played last week, Daybe is not a consistent running back. He averages only 64.0 rushing yards in his career against Cleveland which is not good seeing that the Browns allow 179.6 rushing yards per road game on 5.6 yards per carry this season. In the air, Carr has completed 68.6% of his passes this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt but only 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Carr has been sacked 40 times which can't be good seeing that Cleveland has 14 road sacks and LB Kamerion Wimbley is on the field with his 10 sacks on the year. Cleveland's pass defense is as solid as it gets as they have allowed only 53.6% of passes to be completed against them on the road for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 17 interceptions on the season. Sean Jones is a lethal safety with 5 interceptions on the year who can hit anyone on the field and is always there to make plays. Cleveland has allowed only 39.6% of 3rd down passes to be completed against them on the road and thier Red Zone defense remains as decent as it gets for the teams they have played against. I like the Browns to either win this game or lose by a field goal.
The Browns have all sorts of injuries on the offensive line, they are down to their 3rd and final string quarterback for this game, this is their last game of the season and it's on the road so why not go out there and have some fun? The line is obviously inflating because of Houston's 'I Shot My Load' win last week and much like other teams who have beatn Indy at time this year, there is a pretty big letdown the following week. Houston's offense is good but they lack consistency big time and giving up on the run might be a big mistake in this game. I know Cleveland has a lot of injuries on the board but their defense is underrated and the only reason they have allowed so much yardage and so many points this season is because the offense has given other teams great field position and the offense has the most 3 and outs in the NFL. This is a great spot for Cleveland to possibly make an impression for next year while Houston may not have worked so hard this week knowing the season is already over. Can the Browns please make me a bit more cash?
Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team with a losing home record.
Cleveland 16, Houston 14
:cheers:
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!
