MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 26-16-3 (+211.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 26-16-3 (+211.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
3-0 ATS on Thanksgiving Thursday
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Sunday, November 25
Cleveland Browns -3.5 (25 Units)
The Houston Texans are not as bad as most people think they are as they are currently 5-5 on the season (both ATS and SU) and they have been playing some good football in recent weeks. Not many people are going to like them in this game and that's pretty much based on the fact that Cleveland is a bit overhyped right now but I think that Houston just doesn't match up well enough with the Browns. Houston is coming off two very impressive wins, one at home and the other on the road as they beat Oakland on the road prior to their BYE WEEK and came out of the BYE WEEK and beat New Orleans at home last week. They are 2-3 away from home this season and 2-3 ATS in those games so it's not like they have been on fire or anything. You also really have to consider that this is going to be their first cold weather game of the season as they have been on the road in Oakland, San Diego, Carolina, Jacksonville and Atlanta (dome) so this could be one heck of a culture shock for a bunch of these guys and that does concern me. Now I know Matt Schaub is back at the helms for the Texans and it does look like it has made somewhat of a difference but this is a very different setting for this team. The Texans come into this game averaging only 20.2 points per game on the road this season and they have done that by averaging 372.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those away games. Cleveland's defense sucks and we already know that as they have allowed 30.6 points per home game this season and in those games they have allowed 418.6 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Houston has not exactly made noise on the road this season as they average only 112.0 rushing yards per away game on only 3.7 yards per carry. RB Ron Dayne has only been so so this season and he is up against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 133.8 rushing yards per home game this season on 4.8 yards per carry which is a lot but I don't know that Dayne can have a big game. In the air, QB Matt Schaub has completed 67.3% of his passes this season for 1951 passing yards, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions this season. He is going up against a Cleveland defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 61.6% of their passes against them when they play at home for 6.6 yards per pass attempt which is well below the average for this team. I don't think the Brown can apply that much pressure on Schaub but I do like that the Browns have 6 interceptions in only five home games this season and they are an opportunistic defense. Houston has been terrible at holding onto the ball this season and with the cold weather in effect, should have even more problems today. The Texas have fumbled 8 times in five road games and lost 6 of those fumbles. Houston should have no problems converting third down chances and moving the chains in this game because the Texans have converted 42.4% of their third down chances on the road this season but have scored touchdowns only 35.7% of the time once in the RedZone on the road. Houston has been forced to attempt 12 FG's already this season on the road in only five away games. Schaub is going to have success passing the ball in this game but in the end I think the Browns defense can come up with some big plays and somewhat shut this offense down.
The Cleveland Browns are becoming one of NFL bettors little darlings for some reason and we are starting to see this from week to week. All I can remember about them is that they pulled off that miracle last week in Baltimore and they have been finding a way to win games in recent weeks. The Browns are only 6-4 on the season which is not that great but they are an impressive 8-2 ATS in those games and have been one of the best teams to bet on. The Browns have been even better at home which is why bettors feel this is a great spot/price to grab them at as they are 4-1 straight up in this stadium this season and 4-1 ATS in those games. Apart from their home opening 34-7 loss against the Steelers, Cleveland has since bounced back and beat Cincinnati at home by 6, beating Baltimore at home by 14, beating Miami at home by 10 and beating Seattle at home by 3 points in overtime. The Browns outyarded three of those four opponents and I am guessing they are going to be happy to return home for this game after playing games in Baltimore and Pittsburgh over the last two weeks. Cleveland has won 4 of their last 5 games and have now covered the spread in five straight games. Cleveland comes into this game averaging 31.8 points per home game this season and they have scored those points by averaging 378.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. Houston's defense has been pretty bad on the road this season as they have allowed 27.2 points per game away from home and have allowed an average of 330.4 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Jamal Lewis has kept this offense going and has led the Browns to 115.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry at home. He should have no problems shredding this Houston defense to pieces as they have allowed 132.4 rushing yards per game on the road on 4.9 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Derek Anderson has completed 58.0% of his passes at home this season and is averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt in those games. Anderson should have a fun time spreading the ball around in this game as well as the Texans have allowed their road opponents to complete 64.3% of their passes this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Anderson has thrown 5 of his interceptions at home this season which is not that bad considering that Houston's secondary has only 4 interceptions on the road this season and the Texans are going to try and adapt to the cold weather. I also like the fact that Cleveland has lost only 4 fumbles at home this season because turnovers are going to win this game and the Browns have no excuse for losing the turnover battle at home. Cleveland has been outstanding on third down conversions at home this season convering 50.0% of their chances and they are going up against a Houston defense that has allowed road opponents to complete 44.8% of those third down chances. The Browns are also one of the most efficient RedZone offense in the NFL as they have scored touchdowns 72.2% of the time once inside the RedZone at home this season. As you all saw last week, they have one of the most accurate and reliable kickers in the NFL which really helps move an offense and gives confidence to put points on the board from just about anywhere on the right side of the field. Cleveland has one heck of an offense at home and I think they should have no problems putting up 30+ points in this game against a defense that is going to be culture shocked by the cold. Jamal Lewis is going to have a big day on the ground and Derek Anderson is going to have several chances to connect with Braylon Edwards on the deep balls. Should be a fun one to watch.
A lot of you public faders are probably drooling over the prospect of this being the most public play of the week in the NFL. Yeah I actually thought of that as well when I first looked at the card but it's not that much of a square play and the line is not off by much seeing how Houston has won and covered two straight games. The Texans are not that bad on offense and can certainly score just as many points as every other team Cleveland has hosted this season but it's their defense I don't trust. They have allowed way too many points on the road and again I am going to mentioned that they have not played in a cool climate all season (most of their road games have been in warm states like California and Florida). It is currenlty 28 F in Cleveland and I don't know how the Texans are going to react to this. In the end however, Cleveland is one of the most reliable ATS teams in the NFL this season and I have no problems jumping on the Browns money train like everyone else. This is a huge game for the Browns because if they want a chance at the playoffs they probably need this win badly as they go on the road for two games after this and they have definitely been a much better team at home. As long as their defense can hold serve one or two times in this game, I like Cleveland to run the Texans right out of town with big games from Lewis and Anderson.
Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games played on natural grass.
Cleveland 32, Houston 20
Tennessee Titans -1.5 (10 Units)
The Tennessee Titans cost a lot of people some nicely earned dough the last time we saw them (last Monday Night) but I am willing to forgive and forget pretty damn fast knowing that I am betting on none other than Vince Young himself. No matter what happened in that game, the Titans are not out of the playoff picture by any means. They are 6-4 on the season right now and they are 5-5 ATS in those games. Surprisingly enough they have played some of their best football on the road this season as they are 3-2 straight up away from home this season and are 3-2 ATS in those games. You have to remember that this is the same Tennessee team that has been surprising everyone on the road this season. They opened their season with a 13-10 win over Jacksonville on the road, followed that up with a 31-14 win in New Orleans, lost their next road game in Tampa Bay but followed that up with a 38-36 win in Houston the next week. So apart from two bad games in Denver and Tampa Bay, the TITANS HAVE ACTUALLY OUTYARDED THEIR OPPONENTS IN ALL FIVE ROAD GAMES THIS SEASON! So after starting the season 6-2 and looking like the playoffs were a sure thing for them this season, Tennessee has now lost two straight games and getting back on track this week is a top priority for this team. The Titans come into this game averaging 19.8 points per game this season which doesn't seem like much for a team that has played so well but they have done that by averaging 310.4 total yards of offense per game and 4.8 yards per play. Wow. However, they are going up against Cincinnati defense that has allowed 28.6 points per game this season on 369.6 total yards of offense per game and 6.0 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Tennessee is going to take advantage of Cincinnati's inability to stop the run all season as they average 139.1 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry this season and get to go up against a Bengals defense that has allowed 126.5 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry. Both RB Chris Brown and QB Vince Young should have opportunities for yardage gains on the ground in this one as the Browns are truly horrendous at stopping anyone who can run the ball. In the air, Young has completed 61.4% of his passes this season for 1417 passing yards, 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. Young should have one his best passing games of the season today as he is up against a Bengals defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 66.2% of their passes this season for 7.3 yards per pass attempt. As long as Young can avoid the pressure he is going to face and as long as he can keep his head straight, the Titans should put up some big numbers. The Titans have not scored that many points on offense this season but they do find a way to move the sticks and have converted 42.4% of their third down chances this season. When you bet on a team like the Titans you also have to consider that good defense leads to good offense and leads to points and this is one team that has a very good defense. Cincinnati's opposing QBs this season have an average QB Rating of 96.1 which is among the worst in the NFL and if you look at the list of QB's who have beat this guys this season, you would be pretty disgusted. Vince Young has to make sure he keeps his legs moving at all times in this game because the Bengals are as clueless as it gets defensively and Vince is going to have several opportunities to make some big plays in this game.
The Cincinnati Bengals are not a team I would ever consider betting on ever again after the fiasco from last week that saw them blow a bunch of leads against the Arizona Cardinals at home and eventually lose the game 35-27. That loss pretty much ended any hope the Bengals had of turning things around and making a run at the playoffs because they are now 3-7 on the year and have covered the spread in only 4 of their 10 games on the season. Cincinnati is 2-3 straight up at home this season and 2-3 ATS in those games and I yet to be impressed by any of their performances in front of the hometown crowd. They opened the season with a 27-20 home win over Baltimore which was nice but followed that up with a 21 point loss to New England in their next home game, followed by a 7 points win over the lowly Jets at home, then an 11 point loss at home against the Steelers and most recently their loss to Arizona last week. The Bengals have been outyarded in three of their five home games this season and despite outyarding Arizona by 149 total yards last week, still found a way to allow a bunch of points, turn the ball over too many times and eventually lose the game. This team is in a state of dejection right now and this is the perfect time to continue fading them against teams that are heading for the playoffs. Cincinnati comes into this game averaging 24.6 points per game this season and they have done that on 354.7 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play in those games which is not that bad but turnovers have killed them. However, the Bengals better be ready to see a decent Tennessee defense in this game as the Titans have allowed only 18.6 points per game this season on 278.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Cincinnati continues to have all sorts of problems getting a decent run game going as Rudi Johnson is still not back to what he used to be and the Bengals averaged only 84.9 rushing yards per game this season on 3.5 yards per carry. Tennessee has not had problems stopping the run this season as they have allowed 85.7 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Carson Palmer has completed 65.8% of his passes for 2793 passing yards, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 18 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. Palmer could be in trouble in this one as both Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh could both miss the game with injuries (Housh has not practiced all week). Tennessee has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 59.0% of their passes this season for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt and we all know how Palmer plays when he can't unload chunks of yardage at one time in the air. The Titans average 2.3 sacks per game this season and will be coming after Palmer all game (he has been sacked 14 times this season). Palmer doesn't normally deal well with pressure as he has thrown 14 interceptions and is facing a defense that has 13 interceptions on the season (even without Pacman Jones in the lineup). The key to this game for me is that Cincinnati has converted 43.2% of their third down chances this season which is decent but they have to face one of the best third down defense in the NFL as the Titans have allowed opponents to convert only 37.2% of the time on third downs. What people have to start realizing is that this Cincinnati offense is not what it used to be. They used to have an effective rushing attack that would really open things up in the air for Palmer and his passing attack. Not only do they not have a rushing attack this season but some of their receivers are probably going to miss this game today and I think it will be tough for the Bengals to win this game.
The public is currenlty split on both sides of this one and I understand where both sides are coming from. On one side you have the people like me who refuse to believe that Tennessee and Vince Young are about to lose three straight games and on the other side you have the people who have been betting Cincinnati all season and losing on them and who keep on waiting for this team to turn things around. Well just to let you guys know, the Bengals are not about to turn things around and it could take some big personnel changes to make that happen next season. Tennesse and Vince Young both know how big this game is if they want to avoid a completed mid-season breakdown so I expect them to play for their season in this game. Cincinnati has not been a good home team to bet on over the last few years as they have covered the spread in only 6 of their last 21 home games and have covered the spread against only 3 of the last 13 teams they have faced that have a winning record. Tennessee is a good football team that has a good defensive unit which is what I think matters the most at this time of the season. Winning on the road is not easy but the Titans have pulled off some big ones this season and are almost 4-1 away from home had it not been for the tight loss in Tampa Bay earlier in the year. My money is on Vince Young.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games that follow a straight up loss.
Tennessee 27, Cincinnati 20
Washington Redskins +3 (25 Units)
The Washington Redskins can be called whatever the heck you want to call them because of the Jekyll and Hyde sides they have shown us this season but no matter what anyone says about this team, there is no tough team to handicap in the NFL and that is what I like about this game. Despite losing to Dallas last week, you have to appreciate what this team was able to do against a Cowboys team that has looked damn good in almost all the games they have played this season. We all saw what Dallas did to the Jets on Thanksgving Thursday and we all saw what they have done to many opponents at home this season. Washington was not one of those teams that got embarassed by TO/ROMO and the Cowboys as they put up a good fight last weekend and lost only 28-23 in Dallas as 11 point underdogs. So back to the underdog role they go this afternoon. The Skins have looked good on the road if you ask me as they have a 7 points win in Philadelphia earlier this season, they lost in Green Bay by only three points, they put up a big time fight in Dallas last week and the beat the Jets in overtime. What I found most impressive about last week is that the Skins outyarded the Cowboys despite losing the game. Washington comes into this game averaging 20.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 326.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. Tampa Bay is not an easy team to beat as they have a good defense that has allowed only 15.1 points per game this season and allowed 285.1 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play this season. On the ground, RB Clinton Portis has led the team to 125.1 rushing yards per game this season and they have done that on 4.0 yards per carry. Tampa Bay's run defense has been good but not great and Portis should enjoy the warm weather against a team that has allowed 106.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per carry. In the air, QB Jason Campbell has completed 60.0% of his passes this season for 2083 passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. Tampa Bay's defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 60.3% of their passes this season for 5.6 yards per pass attempt which is not a problem for Washington because the Redskins don't rely on long yardage passes so they can probably effectively move the offense in this game. Washington has a problem with fumbles as they have fumbled 23 times this season and lost 10 of those fumbles but they are lucky here because the Bucs have recovered only 7 fumbles in 10 games this season and they lack big playmakers on the defensive side of things. This game is going to be about which team takes advantage of the opportunities they get in places like the Redzone. That is why I like being on Washington who have scored touchdowns 57.6% of the time in the Redzone this season. They have also converted 38.2% of their third down chances on the year and that should help keep the chains moving in what could turnout to be a low-scoring game. Clinton Portis is who I am relying on to get me this cash. He averages 144.0 rushing yards per game in his career against the Bucs and has burned them for 288 rushing yards in only two career meetings which means that he loves playing against this team. If Portis is at it again today, I have no doubt in my mind the Redskins can pulloff the upset and win this game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come into this game knowing very well how much this game means to them in terms of the playoff race as a loss would put them even with the Redskins heading into the final few weeks of the season. There is a lot more pressure on this team right now than there was in other home games this season and something tells me the Buccaneers don't react well to that pressure. The Bucs are coming off a 31-7 win over the Falcons last week in Atlanta and as impressive as that win may look, the Bucs won the yardage battle by only 30 yards in that game which is nothing to jump up and jump down about. Tampa Bay has been one of the best home teams to bet on this season as they are 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS at Raymond James Stadium. However the last time they had this 3.5 home favorite price tag was a few weeks back against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Bucs ended up losing that game. This is a crucial part of the season for both teams and like I mentioned before, there is added pressure on both sides of the ball for the Bucs since they are the ones holding down the division. However, you also have to consider that the Bucs might be feeling a bit too comfortable with their 2 game lead in the division and putting up a stinker is not out of the question. The Bucs come into this game averaging only 19.5 points per game this season and they have done that on 324.4 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play on the year. Washington's defense is underrated if you ask me as they have allowed 22.1 points per game this season and allowed 322.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Earnest Graham is their only hope in this one as Michael Pittman is out again and the Buccaneers are averaging 116.6 rushing yards per game this season on 4.1 yards per game. However, the Redskins have a pretty decent run defense and are allowing only 97.1 rushing yards per game this season on 3.8 yards per carry so it will be tough for Tampa to get things going on the ground. In the air, QB Jeff Garcia has done a pretty damn good job and has completed 64.7% of his passes this season for 2126 passing yards, 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Garcia is going up against a Washington pass defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 62.5% of their pases this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Safety Sean Taylor is probably not playing in this game but I have faith in the rest of the unit. What you have to like about Garcia is that he doesn't make many mistakes and avoid turnovers which is why the Bucs have played so well. However I don't know that this Bucs offense is anymore efficient than the Redskins here and unless they have someone who can really bruise up the Skins on the ground, I don't see Garcia having a big game here. I know a lot of people like the Bucs because of their good home record and what they have done at home but the Skins defense is not to be underesimated. I think both teams look useless on offense for most of the game I will go with the team that has the biggest playmaker on the field and that ain't the Buccaneers.
You know I only remember one thing about these two teams meeting last season and that is that the Redskins were not supposed to come to Tampa and win that game. They were supposed to walk in there with too much value on their side and they were supposed to lose. Well that did not happen and I am happy betting on these guys knowing that they won 17-10 last January in this stadium. Clinton Portis has great numbers against this defense as he has rushed for 288 yards in two career meetings averaging 5.6 yards per carry in those games and recording 2 touchdown runs. The amount of people betting on the Bucs is a bit alarming because this is a very important games for both teams and the Bucs just don't have the kind of offense needed to run away with a game and cover spreads that hover around the field goal mark. With two good defenses going at each other in this one and with two ineffective offenses going up against each other, there is no way this game ends any other way than by a late FG. I think the Redskins are going to be confident knowing that they played well against Dallas last week and I think they come into this place and shock everyone with the big road win.
Trend of the Game: Washington is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Washington 20, Tampa Bay 17
San Diego Chargers -8.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Baltimore Ravens are quite possibly one of the most useless AFC teams I have seen in a long time and other than the San Francisco 49ers, there is no other team I want to avoid more than these guys in the NFL. No matter what this team has done or what this team has tried to do this season, they are natural born losers who find ways to blow games. You all saw what happened last week at home against the Cleveland Browns as the Ravens thought they had pulled off an incredible comeback win only to have that weird FG bounce in and tie the game and then losing the game in overtime right after that. Like I have always said, good teams will find ways to win no matter what and bad teams will always find ways to lose games they should be winning. Somehow the Ravens still stand at 4-6 straight up on the season but I dont see them recovering from last week's loss that easily. Losing like that kills teams morale and I don't think they got their mojo back in time for this game. BALTIMORE IS NOW 1-9 ATS ON THE SEASON and I don't see what the point of betting on this team is. The Ravens are 1-4 straight up on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in those games. So please tell me how they are going to come into this place and beat a very good Chargers team that loves playing at home? The Ravens come into this game averaging a pathetic 12.6 points per away game this season and in those games they have managed only 291.8 total yards of offense per game and only 4.6 yards per play which is as bad as it gets. San Diego has allowed only 15.6 points per home game this season and in those games they have allowed visiting opponents to average only 318.2 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play which sounds like good defense to me. On the ground, RB Willis McGahee has led this team to 102.0 rushing yards per away game on 4.4 yards per carry but I don't think Willis is going to get anything done in this game as the Chargers have a tough defensive line that allows only 89.8 rushing yards per game at home this season on only 3.4 yards per carry. That is going to put the bulk of things on QB Kyle Boller's shoulders and that makes me laugh. Boller has completed only 58.9% of his passes this season for 1051 passing yards, 6.0 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions. San Diego has allowed opposing visiting QB's to complete only 60.5% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt which means Boller might put a few 3 balls up in this one. The Chargers have 14 sacks at home this season and they come at opposing QB's pretty damn hard. Boller has not made too many mistakes up to this point but it to suck knowin that San Diego has 15 interceptions at home this season and with all the added pressure coming at him, Boller will almost surely buckle and make stupid decisions. Visting QB's have an average QB Rating of only 55.2 in San Diego this season and that is horrible news for Baltimore backers. The Ravens have fumbled the ball 12 times on the road this season and they have lost 9 of those fumbles. They have been one of the most undisciplined teams averaging 9.2 penalties per road game and I wouldn't trust them with money ever. They are converting only 31.9% of their third down chances away from home and have scored touchdowns only 25.0% of the time once in the Redzone on the road. The season has been a complete disaster for this team and that disaster continues today as they are facing one of the best AFC teams and they are on the road. The wheels have fallen off the wagon for the Ravens and the next stop is fade city...again.
The San Diego Chargers are a team that has always treated me well and that has more often than not brought a smile to my face with some of their explosive performances. As long as you can catch this team on one of their good days, they can make you happy too. The Chargers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and that is very important at this time of the year because it means you can finish the season off strong and head into the playoffs with a good head of steam. San Diego is only 5-5 on the season but I call that deceiving because they started the year 1-3 and it took them some time to recover. They are coming off a road loss to a very good Jacksonville team last week and the last time they went on the road and lost a game like that, the bounced back at home and took care of business against Manning and the Colts. What I am trying to get to is that they are very good in bounce back situations and this is one of those that just happens to be against a very bad team. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS and SU at home this season with wins over Oakland, Indianapolis, Houston and Chicago with their only loss coming against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3 of the season. The Chargers come into this game averaging 23.2 points per home game this season and they have done that by also averaging 274.4 total yards of offense per home game on 5.0 yards per carry. As useless as they sound with numbers like that, their defense has played a great part in getting them good field position so it's understandble. Baltimore's defense has allowed an unusual 23.6 points per game on the road this season and in those games they have allowed 247.0 total yards of offense per game and only 4.8 yards per play. However, much to the opposite of San Diego, their defense has been slapped around because their offense is so useless and goes three and out more often than not. On the ground, RB Ladainlin Tomlinson has lef this team to 123.2 rushing yards per game at home this season for 4.3 yards per carry. Baltimore and LB Ray Lewis have completely shut down teams who tried to run against them on the road as they have allowed only 79.2 rushing yards per road game on 2.8 yards per carry. So the key here is to get LT going but get him going in another way. In the air, QB Philip Rivers has completed 60.0% of his passes at home this season for 5.8 yards per pass attempt which is down big time from last season. However, this is the one game I think he has a chance to make some big plays in. The Ravens have allowed opposing road QB's to complete 60.4% of their passes this season for 7.6 yards per pass attempt and Rivers is going to have time to find receivers downfield against a depleted secondary. Rivers has thrown 6 interceptions at home this season but he doesn't have to worry much as the Ravens don't even average one interception per game away from home. Opposing road QB's have an average QB Rating of 98.9 agains the Ravens this season so the odds that Rivers has one of his best game all year are very good here. Unlike years past, this Ravens defense has not been forcing turnovers away from home as they have recovered only 2 fumbles in five road game this season and they are not the playmakers that made them such a feared defense the last few seasons. I have to admit however that the Ravens still have a bad ass third down defense on the road as their opponents away from home have converted only 31.3% of the time against them and that could help them on occasion today but in the end San Diego has scored touchdowns in 50.0% of the time they have entered the Redzone at home and the Ravens Redzone defense has been pretty bad on the road. Opponents have scored touchdowns in the Redzone 53.9% of the time against this Ravens road defense and I think they are in trouble if they started trading touchdowns for field goals of their own. San Diego has attempted only 6 field goals in five home games and like I said before, they are very good in the Redzone and do not shy away from going for it in fourth down situaitons. San Diego is going to come out of the gates flying in this game and I think they are going leave footprins on this Ravens defense.
The Ravens are 1-9 ATS on the season. That is pretty much all I have to tell anybody. If you are betting on this team you have problems and you need to get checked out. On one side of the ball you have a team like the Ravens who are going to struggle to put 10+ points on the board in this game and who are without their one and only threat in the passing attack, TE Todd Heap who has to miss the game with an injury. On the other side of things you have the Chargers who love being at home and who struggle to not put at least 20+ points per home game. The spread is so juicy and I don't think the Ravens are going to be anywhere close to covering for the game once we hit halftime here. San Diego has yet to have that breakout game where everyoe in the league looks and says wow these guys are back and they could be a serious threat in the AFC. The Ravens have way too many injuries on defense and although the Chargers have struggled to get things going on offense all season, this is the one game I think they can come out and feel good about themselves. Baltimore has been horrendous on the spread all season and they have failed to cover against their last eight AFC opponents which is pathetic. Give me less than a ten points in this game and Im all over it.
Trend of the Game: Baltimore is 0-8 ATS in their last eight games versus AFC opponents.
San Diego 30, Baltimore 9
Chicago Bears -1 (10 Units)
The Denver Broncos are back in business after a futile first half of the season and they currently sit at 5-5 on the season with a very good chance to contend for the wildcard should they win their next few games. Having said that, everybody wants to win games and I don't know that the Broncos are good enough to sustain the good run they are on at the moment. Sure they have won two straight games and sure they looked good on National TV on Monday but you have to think that the short week of practice, combined with Thanksgiving for many and the travelling issue and this could be one hell of a big letdown spot for the Broncos. Denver is 2-2 away from home this season but they are only 1-3 ATS in those games and have really not looked good on the road. They have played more home games than most teams in the NFL which could be another reason the public is perceiving them as worthy of betting on in this spot. Denver is coming off wins over Tennessee and Kansas City which was impressive but they looked like crap on opening day in Buffalo (escaping with a lucky win), they got spanked by the Colts two weeks later on the road and followed that up with a 37 point loss in Detroit. I still can't believe that happened but it did and shows you what kind of road team they can be. The Broncos come into this game averaging 22.7 points per game in their last three games this season and they have done that by also averaging 329.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games which is not that bad. Chicago's defense has been hit hard by injuries all season yet they have held their last three opponents to only 17.3 points per game and in those games they have allowed only 327.7 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play which is not too bad at all. On the ground, the Broncos have been winning games recently because they average 118.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on a whopping 5.0 yards per carry. However, both RB Travis Henry and RB Selvin Young will probably miss this game which means the next leading rusher is QB Jay Cutler. The Bears have allowed 111.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.2 yards per carry but can afford to drop guys into coverage for this game seeing how the Broncos won't have an effective running back. Cutler has completed 63.7% of his passes the last three games for 6.2 yards per pass attempt but he has been sacked 7 times in those games and is going to feel the wrath of the Bears pass rush which has picked up steam in recent weeks and has 10 sacks in their last three games. Cutler has thrown only 2 interceptions in his last three games but the Bears are due to make some big plays and with all the pressure, I think Cutler makes a few mistakes in this one. Denever has fumbled the ball 8 times in their last three games losing 4 of those fumbles and that is a big problem here seeing how the Bears defense has forced 5 fumbles in their last three games. As good as Cutler and Denver have been on third downs the last three games, the Bears defense has held opponents to a 29.5% converison rate over the last three games which is #1 in the NFL. Denver has been pretty damn useless when it comes to discipline in their last three games as they average a whopping 9.7 penalties per game and that is not going to get them very far in this game. Denver will not look as good as they have the past few weeks and I see their offense having some big problems getting things going which means the Bears are going to get comfortable on defense and force some big plays.
The Chicago Bears are not a team I have bothered betting on once this season and as happy as I am that I laid off these guys, I am happy to say that im about to back them now and make them winners. The outlook for the Bears and thier season is very bleak and its bad but I wouldn't say its over just yet because right now they sit at 4-6 on the season with a very winnable game today against Denver and some winnable games against the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings. I know the Bears are coming off a bad loss in Seattle last weekend but they competed in that game and came up a few plays short of winning. So after playing well in a game like that and after disappointing home fans over and over again this season with their pathetic 1-3 straight up record at home, will this finally be the week that the Bears give the people of Chicago somethign to cheer about? I think so. Chicago has won 3 of their last 4 road games and looked about a thouands times better away from home but it's time to man up and show the NFL that you have a homefield and that you can win there. The Bears are 0-4 ATS at home this season and I just don't see how they could every possibly move to 0-5 ATS after this game. The Bears come into this game averaging only 15.7 points per game in their last three games this season and they have done that by averaging only 298.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. Denver's defense thinks they have played well in recent weeks but last time I checked they had allowed 25.0 points per game in their last three games and had allowed 361.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. OUCH! So if the Bears are ever to get going, now is the time to do it. On the ground, the Bears have managed to rush for only 82.7 rushing yards per game over their last three games for 3.3 yards per carry which is not good but RB Cedric Benson could have some success in this game as Denver has allowed 110.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.1 yards per carry. That should soften things up in the air for QB Rex Grossman who is back in again. Grossman actually looked really good against Seattle despite not throwing a touchdown pass or throwing an interception and I think he respons well to getting another chance as the starter. He passed for almost 300 yards last week and completed 64.0% of his passes. In their last three games, Denver has allowed opposing QB's to complete 55.6% of their passes for only 6.4 yards per passs attempt. Chicago's offensive line has allowed 10 sacks in their last three games while Denver has 6 sacks in their last three games so running the ball is going to be important and quick out passes are going to be the key for Grossman. The Broncos defense is very aggressive and they have 5 interceptions in their last three games and have forced a whopping 9 fumbles in those games. However, the Bears have been very good with the ball and they have lost only 1 fumble in their last three games which means that winning the turnover battle is not impossible but needed to win this game. The Bears have done a decent job on third downs recently, converting 39.1% of them in their last three games and they are up against a Denver defense that has allowed their last three opponents to convert 42.2% of their third down chances. I don't know what to expect from this Chicago offense here but I know that they can move the chains and they can probably put some points on the board against a Denver defense that has allowed way too many points in recent weeks. WR Bernard Berrian is defintiely playing and even though the deep ball won't be available, I think Grossman is going to take a few shots downfield and make some big plays in this game.
Vegas is asking you guys to bite on this baby and most of you have already taken a big bite of the chunky Denver line. This is a classic case where Vegas is challenging you to remember a bit more than just what happened last weekend in the NFL and most of you are having problems doing that. Just because Denver looked really good on Monday Night Football and just beacuse they have won two straight games and look like they are about to make a run for the playoffs, DOES NOT MEAN they are going to win a tough road game. DID YOU GUYS KNOW THAT RB SELVING YOUNG HAS NOT PRACTICED ONCE THIS WEEK FOR THE BRONCOS? That is one heck of an injury to have here because once again that puts everything on the Broncos passing game. I also hope that you guys have not forgotten that this is the same Denver team that lost by 37 points on the road against Detroit this season and that plunging back into that ineffective coma is still a possibility for these guys. The Bears owe their hometown fans a lot more than they have given them a win here would pretty much have everyone in this city buzzing again. I mean you cannot go to the SuperBowl one season and then be 1-4 at home the next season. I refuse to believe that the Bears can't play much better than that and I am calling for this to be their breakout week. OFFICIALLY!
Trend of the Game: Denver is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games that follow a straight up win.
Chicago 27, Denver 17
ONCE AGAIN HAPPY THANKSGIVING WEEKEND TO EVERYONE AND THEIR FAMILIES NOW LETS KICK SOME ASS BEFORE A HUGE SUNDAY NIGHT PLAY!
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 26-16-3 (+211.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
3-0 ATS on Thanksgiving Thursday
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Sunday, November 25
Cleveland Browns -3.5 (25 Units)
The Houston Texans are not as bad as most people think they are as they are currently 5-5 on the season (both ATS and SU) and they have been playing some good football in recent weeks. Not many people are going to like them in this game and that's pretty much based on the fact that Cleveland is a bit overhyped right now but I think that Houston just doesn't match up well enough with the Browns. Houston is coming off two very impressive wins, one at home and the other on the road as they beat Oakland on the road prior to their BYE WEEK and came out of the BYE WEEK and beat New Orleans at home last week. They are 2-3 away from home this season and 2-3 ATS in those games so it's not like they have been on fire or anything. You also really have to consider that this is going to be their first cold weather game of the season as they have been on the road in Oakland, San Diego, Carolina, Jacksonville and Atlanta (dome) so this could be one heck of a culture shock for a bunch of these guys and that does concern me. Now I know Matt Schaub is back at the helms for the Texans and it does look like it has made somewhat of a difference but this is a very different setting for this team. The Texans come into this game averaging only 20.2 points per game on the road this season and they have done that by averaging 372.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those away games. Cleveland's defense sucks and we already know that as they have allowed 30.6 points per home game this season and in those games they have allowed 418.6 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Houston has not exactly made noise on the road this season as they average only 112.0 rushing yards per away game on only 3.7 yards per carry. RB Ron Dayne has only been so so this season and he is up against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 133.8 rushing yards per home game this season on 4.8 yards per carry which is a lot but I don't know that Dayne can have a big game. In the air, QB Matt Schaub has completed 67.3% of his passes this season for 1951 passing yards, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions this season. He is going up against a Cleveland defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 61.6% of their passes against them when they play at home for 6.6 yards per pass attempt which is well below the average for this team. I don't think the Brown can apply that much pressure on Schaub but I do like that the Browns have 6 interceptions in only five home games this season and they are an opportunistic defense. Houston has been terrible at holding onto the ball this season and with the cold weather in effect, should have even more problems today. The Texas have fumbled 8 times in five road games and lost 6 of those fumbles. Houston should have no problems converting third down chances and moving the chains in this game because the Texans have converted 42.4% of their third down chances on the road this season but have scored touchdowns only 35.7% of the time once in the RedZone on the road. Houston has been forced to attempt 12 FG's already this season on the road in only five away games. Schaub is going to have success passing the ball in this game but in the end I think the Browns defense can come up with some big plays and somewhat shut this offense down.
The Cleveland Browns are becoming one of NFL bettors little darlings for some reason and we are starting to see this from week to week. All I can remember about them is that they pulled off that miracle last week in Baltimore and they have been finding a way to win games in recent weeks. The Browns are only 6-4 on the season which is not that great but they are an impressive 8-2 ATS in those games and have been one of the best teams to bet on. The Browns have been even better at home which is why bettors feel this is a great spot/price to grab them at as they are 4-1 straight up in this stadium this season and 4-1 ATS in those games. Apart from their home opening 34-7 loss against the Steelers, Cleveland has since bounced back and beat Cincinnati at home by 6, beating Baltimore at home by 14, beating Miami at home by 10 and beating Seattle at home by 3 points in overtime. The Browns outyarded three of those four opponents and I am guessing they are going to be happy to return home for this game after playing games in Baltimore and Pittsburgh over the last two weeks. Cleveland has won 4 of their last 5 games and have now covered the spread in five straight games. Cleveland comes into this game averaging 31.8 points per home game this season and they have scored those points by averaging 378.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. Houston's defense has been pretty bad on the road this season as they have allowed 27.2 points per game away from home and have allowed an average of 330.4 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Jamal Lewis has kept this offense going and has led the Browns to 115.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry at home. He should have no problems shredding this Houston defense to pieces as they have allowed 132.4 rushing yards per game on the road on 4.9 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Derek Anderson has completed 58.0% of his passes at home this season and is averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt in those games. Anderson should have a fun time spreading the ball around in this game as well as the Texans have allowed their road opponents to complete 64.3% of their passes this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Anderson has thrown 5 of his interceptions at home this season which is not that bad considering that Houston's secondary has only 4 interceptions on the road this season and the Texans are going to try and adapt to the cold weather. I also like the fact that Cleveland has lost only 4 fumbles at home this season because turnovers are going to win this game and the Browns have no excuse for losing the turnover battle at home. Cleveland has been outstanding on third down conversions at home this season convering 50.0% of their chances and they are going up against a Houston defense that has allowed road opponents to complete 44.8% of those third down chances. The Browns are also one of the most efficient RedZone offense in the NFL as they have scored touchdowns 72.2% of the time once inside the RedZone at home this season. As you all saw last week, they have one of the most accurate and reliable kickers in the NFL which really helps move an offense and gives confidence to put points on the board from just about anywhere on the right side of the field. Cleveland has one heck of an offense at home and I think they should have no problems putting up 30+ points in this game against a defense that is going to be culture shocked by the cold. Jamal Lewis is going to have a big day on the ground and Derek Anderson is going to have several chances to connect with Braylon Edwards on the deep balls. Should be a fun one to watch.
A lot of you public faders are probably drooling over the prospect of this being the most public play of the week in the NFL. Yeah I actually thought of that as well when I first looked at the card but it's not that much of a square play and the line is not off by much seeing how Houston has won and covered two straight games. The Texans are not that bad on offense and can certainly score just as many points as every other team Cleveland has hosted this season but it's their defense I don't trust. They have allowed way too many points on the road and again I am going to mentioned that they have not played in a cool climate all season (most of their road games have been in warm states like California and Florida). It is currenlty 28 F in Cleveland and I don't know how the Texans are going to react to this. In the end however, Cleveland is one of the most reliable ATS teams in the NFL this season and I have no problems jumping on the Browns money train like everyone else. This is a huge game for the Browns because if they want a chance at the playoffs they probably need this win badly as they go on the road for two games after this and they have definitely been a much better team at home. As long as their defense can hold serve one or two times in this game, I like Cleveland to run the Texans right out of town with big games from Lewis and Anderson.
Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games played on natural grass.
Cleveland 32, Houston 20
Tennessee Titans -1.5 (10 Units)
The Tennessee Titans cost a lot of people some nicely earned dough the last time we saw them (last Monday Night) but I am willing to forgive and forget pretty damn fast knowing that I am betting on none other than Vince Young himself. No matter what happened in that game, the Titans are not out of the playoff picture by any means. They are 6-4 on the season right now and they are 5-5 ATS in those games. Surprisingly enough they have played some of their best football on the road this season as they are 3-2 straight up away from home this season and are 3-2 ATS in those games. You have to remember that this is the same Tennessee team that has been surprising everyone on the road this season. They opened their season with a 13-10 win over Jacksonville on the road, followed that up with a 31-14 win in New Orleans, lost their next road game in Tampa Bay but followed that up with a 38-36 win in Houston the next week. So apart from two bad games in Denver and Tampa Bay, the TITANS HAVE ACTUALLY OUTYARDED THEIR OPPONENTS IN ALL FIVE ROAD GAMES THIS SEASON! So after starting the season 6-2 and looking like the playoffs were a sure thing for them this season, Tennessee has now lost two straight games and getting back on track this week is a top priority for this team. The Titans come into this game averaging 19.8 points per game this season which doesn't seem like much for a team that has played so well but they have done that by averaging 310.4 total yards of offense per game and 4.8 yards per play. Wow. However, they are going up against Cincinnati defense that has allowed 28.6 points per game this season on 369.6 total yards of offense per game and 6.0 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Tennessee is going to take advantage of Cincinnati's inability to stop the run all season as they average 139.1 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry this season and get to go up against a Bengals defense that has allowed 126.5 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry. Both RB Chris Brown and QB Vince Young should have opportunities for yardage gains on the ground in this one as the Browns are truly horrendous at stopping anyone who can run the ball. In the air, Young has completed 61.4% of his passes this season for 1417 passing yards, 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. Young should have one his best passing games of the season today as he is up against a Bengals defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 66.2% of their passes this season for 7.3 yards per pass attempt. As long as Young can avoid the pressure he is going to face and as long as he can keep his head straight, the Titans should put up some big numbers. The Titans have not scored that many points on offense this season but they do find a way to move the sticks and have converted 42.4% of their third down chances this season. When you bet on a team like the Titans you also have to consider that good defense leads to good offense and leads to points and this is one team that has a very good defense. Cincinnati's opposing QBs this season have an average QB Rating of 96.1 which is among the worst in the NFL and if you look at the list of QB's who have beat this guys this season, you would be pretty disgusted. Vince Young has to make sure he keeps his legs moving at all times in this game because the Bengals are as clueless as it gets defensively and Vince is going to have several opportunities to make some big plays in this game.
The Cincinnati Bengals are not a team I would ever consider betting on ever again after the fiasco from last week that saw them blow a bunch of leads against the Arizona Cardinals at home and eventually lose the game 35-27. That loss pretty much ended any hope the Bengals had of turning things around and making a run at the playoffs because they are now 3-7 on the year and have covered the spread in only 4 of their 10 games on the season. Cincinnati is 2-3 straight up at home this season and 2-3 ATS in those games and I yet to be impressed by any of their performances in front of the hometown crowd. They opened the season with a 27-20 home win over Baltimore which was nice but followed that up with a 21 point loss to New England in their next home game, followed by a 7 points win over the lowly Jets at home, then an 11 point loss at home against the Steelers and most recently their loss to Arizona last week. The Bengals have been outyarded in three of their five home games this season and despite outyarding Arizona by 149 total yards last week, still found a way to allow a bunch of points, turn the ball over too many times and eventually lose the game. This team is in a state of dejection right now and this is the perfect time to continue fading them against teams that are heading for the playoffs. Cincinnati comes into this game averaging 24.6 points per game this season and they have done that on 354.7 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play in those games which is not that bad but turnovers have killed them. However, the Bengals better be ready to see a decent Tennessee defense in this game as the Titans have allowed only 18.6 points per game this season on 278.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Cincinnati continues to have all sorts of problems getting a decent run game going as Rudi Johnson is still not back to what he used to be and the Bengals averaged only 84.9 rushing yards per game this season on 3.5 yards per carry. Tennessee has not had problems stopping the run this season as they have allowed 85.7 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Carson Palmer has completed 65.8% of his passes for 2793 passing yards, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 18 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. Palmer could be in trouble in this one as both Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh could both miss the game with injuries (Housh has not practiced all week). Tennessee has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 59.0% of their passes this season for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt and we all know how Palmer plays when he can't unload chunks of yardage at one time in the air. The Titans average 2.3 sacks per game this season and will be coming after Palmer all game (he has been sacked 14 times this season). Palmer doesn't normally deal well with pressure as he has thrown 14 interceptions and is facing a defense that has 13 interceptions on the season (even without Pacman Jones in the lineup). The key to this game for me is that Cincinnati has converted 43.2% of their third down chances this season which is decent but they have to face one of the best third down defense in the NFL as the Titans have allowed opponents to convert only 37.2% of the time on third downs. What people have to start realizing is that this Cincinnati offense is not what it used to be. They used to have an effective rushing attack that would really open things up in the air for Palmer and his passing attack. Not only do they not have a rushing attack this season but some of their receivers are probably going to miss this game today and I think it will be tough for the Bengals to win this game.
The public is currenlty split on both sides of this one and I understand where both sides are coming from. On one side you have the people like me who refuse to believe that Tennessee and Vince Young are about to lose three straight games and on the other side you have the people who have been betting Cincinnati all season and losing on them and who keep on waiting for this team to turn things around. Well just to let you guys know, the Bengals are not about to turn things around and it could take some big personnel changes to make that happen next season. Tennesse and Vince Young both know how big this game is if they want to avoid a completed mid-season breakdown so I expect them to play for their season in this game. Cincinnati has not been a good home team to bet on over the last few years as they have covered the spread in only 6 of their last 21 home games and have covered the spread against only 3 of the last 13 teams they have faced that have a winning record. Tennessee is a good football team that has a good defensive unit which is what I think matters the most at this time of the season. Winning on the road is not easy but the Titans have pulled off some big ones this season and are almost 4-1 away from home had it not been for the tight loss in Tampa Bay earlier in the year. My money is on Vince Young.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games that follow a straight up loss.
Tennessee 27, Cincinnati 20
Washington Redskins +3 (25 Units)
The Washington Redskins can be called whatever the heck you want to call them because of the Jekyll and Hyde sides they have shown us this season but no matter what anyone says about this team, there is no tough team to handicap in the NFL and that is what I like about this game. Despite losing to Dallas last week, you have to appreciate what this team was able to do against a Cowboys team that has looked damn good in almost all the games they have played this season. We all saw what Dallas did to the Jets on Thanksgving Thursday and we all saw what they have done to many opponents at home this season. Washington was not one of those teams that got embarassed by TO/ROMO and the Cowboys as they put up a good fight last weekend and lost only 28-23 in Dallas as 11 point underdogs. So back to the underdog role they go this afternoon. The Skins have looked good on the road if you ask me as they have a 7 points win in Philadelphia earlier this season, they lost in Green Bay by only three points, they put up a big time fight in Dallas last week and the beat the Jets in overtime. What I found most impressive about last week is that the Skins outyarded the Cowboys despite losing the game. Washington comes into this game averaging 20.0 points per game this season and they have done that on 326.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. Tampa Bay is not an easy team to beat as they have a good defense that has allowed only 15.1 points per game this season and allowed 285.1 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play this season. On the ground, RB Clinton Portis has led the team to 125.1 rushing yards per game this season and they have done that on 4.0 yards per carry. Tampa Bay's run defense has been good but not great and Portis should enjoy the warm weather against a team that has allowed 106.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per carry. In the air, QB Jason Campbell has completed 60.0% of his passes this season for 2083 passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. Tampa Bay's defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 60.3% of their passes this season for 5.6 yards per pass attempt which is not a problem for Washington because the Redskins don't rely on long yardage passes so they can probably effectively move the offense in this game. Washington has a problem with fumbles as they have fumbled 23 times this season and lost 10 of those fumbles but they are lucky here because the Bucs have recovered only 7 fumbles in 10 games this season and they lack big playmakers on the defensive side of things. This game is going to be about which team takes advantage of the opportunities they get in places like the Redzone. That is why I like being on Washington who have scored touchdowns 57.6% of the time in the Redzone this season. They have also converted 38.2% of their third down chances on the year and that should help keep the chains moving in what could turnout to be a low-scoring game. Clinton Portis is who I am relying on to get me this cash. He averages 144.0 rushing yards per game in his career against the Bucs and has burned them for 288 rushing yards in only two career meetings which means that he loves playing against this team. If Portis is at it again today, I have no doubt in my mind the Redskins can pulloff the upset and win this game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come into this game knowing very well how much this game means to them in terms of the playoff race as a loss would put them even with the Redskins heading into the final few weeks of the season. There is a lot more pressure on this team right now than there was in other home games this season and something tells me the Buccaneers don't react well to that pressure. The Bucs are coming off a 31-7 win over the Falcons last week in Atlanta and as impressive as that win may look, the Bucs won the yardage battle by only 30 yards in that game which is nothing to jump up and jump down about. Tampa Bay has been one of the best home teams to bet on this season as they are 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS at Raymond James Stadium. However the last time they had this 3.5 home favorite price tag was a few weeks back against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Bucs ended up losing that game. This is a crucial part of the season for both teams and like I mentioned before, there is added pressure on both sides of the ball for the Bucs since they are the ones holding down the division. However, you also have to consider that the Bucs might be feeling a bit too comfortable with their 2 game lead in the division and putting up a stinker is not out of the question. The Bucs come into this game averaging only 19.5 points per game this season and they have done that on 324.4 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play on the year. Washington's defense is underrated if you ask me as they have allowed 22.1 points per game this season and allowed 322.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Earnest Graham is their only hope in this one as Michael Pittman is out again and the Buccaneers are averaging 116.6 rushing yards per game this season on 4.1 yards per game. However, the Redskins have a pretty decent run defense and are allowing only 97.1 rushing yards per game this season on 3.8 yards per carry so it will be tough for Tampa to get things going on the ground. In the air, QB Jeff Garcia has done a pretty damn good job and has completed 64.7% of his passes this season for 2126 passing yards, 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Garcia is going up against a Washington pass defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 62.5% of their pases this season for 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Safety Sean Taylor is probably not playing in this game but I have faith in the rest of the unit. What you have to like about Garcia is that he doesn't make many mistakes and avoid turnovers which is why the Bucs have played so well. However I don't know that this Bucs offense is anymore efficient than the Redskins here and unless they have someone who can really bruise up the Skins on the ground, I don't see Garcia having a big game here. I know a lot of people like the Bucs because of their good home record and what they have done at home but the Skins defense is not to be underesimated. I think both teams look useless on offense for most of the game I will go with the team that has the biggest playmaker on the field and that ain't the Buccaneers.
You know I only remember one thing about these two teams meeting last season and that is that the Redskins were not supposed to come to Tampa and win that game. They were supposed to walk in there with too much value on their side and they were supposed to lose. Well that did not happen and I am happy betting on these guys knowing that they won 17-10 last January in this stadium. Clinton Portis has great numbers against this defense as he has rushed for 288 yards in two career meetings averaging 5.6 yards per carry in those games and recording 2 touchdown runs. The amount of people betting on the Bucs is a bit alarming because this is a very important games for both teams and the Bucs just don't have the kind of offense needed to run away with a game and cover spreads that hover around the field goal mark. With two good defenses going at each other in this one and with two ineffective offenses going up against each other, there is no way this game ends any other way than by a late FG. I think the Redskins are going to be confident knowing that they played well against Dallas last week and I think they come into this place and shock everyone with the big road win.
Trend of the Game: Washington is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Washington 20, Tampa Bay 17
San Diego Chargers -8.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Baltimore Ravens are quite possibly one of the most useless AFC teams I have seen in a long time and other than the San Francisco 49ers, there is no other team I want to avoid more than these guys in the NFL. No matter what this team has done or what this team has tried to do this season, they are natural born losers who find ways to blow games. You all saw what happened last week at home against the Cleveland Browns as the Ravens thought they had pulled off an incredible comeback win only to have that weird FG bounce in and tie the game and then losing the game in overtime right after that. Like I have always said, good teams will find ways to win no matter what and bad teams will always find ways to lose games they should be winning. Somehow the Ravens still stand at 4-6 straight up on the season but I dont see them recovering from last week's loss that easily. Losing like that kills teams morale and I don't think they got their mojo back in time for this game. BALTIMORE IS NOW 1-9 ATS ON THE SEASON and I don't see what the point of betting on this team is. The Ravens are 1-4 straight up on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in those games. So please tell me how they are going to come into this place and beat a very good Chargers team that loves playing at home? The Ravens come into this game averaging a pathetic 12.6 points per away game this season and in those games they have managed only 291.8 total yards of offense per game and only 4.6 yards per play which is as bad as it gets. San Diego has allowed only 15.6 points per home game this season and in those games they have allowed visiting opponents to average only 318.2 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play which sounds like good defense to me. On the ground, RB Willis McGahee has led this team to 102.0 rushing yards per away game on 4.4 yards per carry but I don't think Willis is going to get anything done in this game as the Chargers have a tough defensive line that allows only 89.8 rushing yards per game at home this season on only 3.4 yards per carry. That is going to put the bulk of things on QB Kyle Boller's shoulders and that makes me laugh. Boller has completed only 58.9% of his passes this season for 1051 passing yards, 6.0 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions. San Diego has allowed opposing visiting QB's to complete only 60.5% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt which means Boller might put a few 3 balls up in this one. The Chargers have 14 sacks at home this season and they come at opposing QB's pretty damn hard. Boller has not made too many mistakes up to this point but it to suck knowin that San Diego has 15 interceptions at home this season and with all the added pressure coming at him, Boller will almost surely buckle and make stupid decisions. Visting QB's have an average QB Rating of only 55.2 in San Diego this season and that is horrible news for Baltimore backers. The Ravens have fumbled the ball 12 times on the road this season and they have lost 9 of those fumbles. They have been one of the most undisciplined teams averaging 9.2 penalties per road game and I wouldn't trust them with money ever. They are converting only 31.9% of their third down chances away from home and have scored touchdowns only 25.0% of the time once in the Redzone on the road. The season has been a complete disaster for this team and that disaster continues today as they are facing one of the best AFC teams and they are on the road. The wheels have fallen off the wagon for the Ravens and the next stop is fade city...again.
The San Diego Chargers are a team that has always treated me well and that has more often than not brought a smile to my face with some of their explosive performances. As long as you can catch this team on one of their good days, they can make you happy too. The Chargers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and that is very important at this time of the year because it means you can finish the season off strong and head into the playoffs with a good head of steam. San Diego is only 5-5 on the season but I call that deceiving because they started the year 1-3 and it took them some time to recover. They are coming off a road loss to a very good Jacksonville team last week and the last time they went on the road and lost a game like that, the bounced back at home and took care of business against Manning and the Colts. What I am trying to get to is that they are very good in bounce back situations and this is one of those that just happens to be against a very bad team. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS and SU at home this season with wins over Oakland, Indianapolis, Houston and Chicago with their only loss coming against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3 of the season. The Chargers come into this game averaging 23.2 points per home game this season and they have done that by also averaging 274.4 total yards of offense per home game on 5.0 yards per carry. As useless as they sound with numbers like that, their defense has played a great part in getting them good field position so it's understandble. Baltimore's defense has allowed an unusual 23.6 points per game on the road this season and in those games they have allowed 247.0 total yards of offense per game and only 4.8 yards per play. However, much to the opposite of San Diego, their defense has been slapped around because their offense is so useless and goes three and out more often than not. On the ground, RB Ladainlin Tomlinson has lef this team to 123.2 rushing yards per game at home this season for 4.3 yards per carry. Baltimore and LB Ray Lewis have completely shut down teams who tried to run against them on the road as they have allowed only 79.2 rushing yards per road game on 2.8 yards per carry. So the key here is to get LT going but get him going in another way. In the air, QB Philip Rivers has completed 60.0% of his passes at home this season for 5.8 yards per pass attempt which is down big time from last season. However, this is the one game I think he has a chance to make some big plays in. The Ravens have allowed opposing road QB's to complete 60.4% of their passes this season for 7.6 yards per pass attempt and Rivers is going to have time to find receivers downfield against a depleted secondary. Rivers has thrown 6 interceptions at home this season but he doesn't have to worry much as the Ravens don't even average one interception per game away from home. Opposing road QB's have an average QB Rating of 98.9 agains the Ravens this season so the odds that Rivers has one of his best game all year are very good here. Unlike years past, this Ravens defense has not been forcing turnovers away from home as they have recovered only 2 fumbles in five road game this season and they are not the playmakers that made them such a feared defense the last few seasons. I have to admit however that the Ravens still have a bad ass third down defense on the road as their opponents away from home have converted only 31.3% of the time against them and that could help them on occasion today but in the end San Diego has scored touchdowns in 50.0% of the time they have entered the Redzone at home and the Ravens Redzone defense has been pretty bad on the road. Opponents have scored touchdowns in the Redzone 53.9% of the time against this Ravens road defense and I think they are in trouble if they started trading touchdowns for field goals of their own. San Diego has attempted only 6 field goals in five home games and like I said before, they are very good in the Redzone and do not shy away from going for it in fourth down situaitons. San Diego is going to come out of the gates flying in this game and I think they are going leave footprins on this Ravens defense.
The Ravens are 1-9 ATS on the season. That is pretty much all I have to tell anybody. If you are betting on this team you have problems and you need to get checked out. On one side of the ball you have a team like the Ravens who are going to struggle to put 10+ points on the board in this game and who are without their one and only threat in the passing attack, TE Todd Heap who has to miss the game with an injury. On the other side of things you have the Chargers who love being at home and who struggle to not put at least 20+ points per home game. The spread is so juicy and I don't think the Ravens are going to be anywhere close to covering for the game once we hit halftime here. San Diego has yet to have that breakout game where everyoe in the league looks and says wow these guys are back and they could be a serious threat in the AFC. The Ravens have way too many injuries on defense and although the Chargers have struggled to get things going on offense all season, this is the one game I think they can come out and feel good about themselves. Baltimore has been horrendous on the spread all season and they have failed to cover against their last eight AFC opponents which is pathetic. Give me less than a ten points in this game and Im all over it.
Trend of the Game: Baltimore is 0-8 ATS in their last eight games versus AFC opponents.
San Diego 30, Baltimore 9
Chicago Bears -1 (10 Units)
The Denver Broncos are back in business after a futile first half of the season and they currently sit at 5-5 on the season with a very good chance to contend for the wildcard should they win their next few games. Having said that, everybody wants to win games and I don't know that the Broncos are good enough to sustain the good run they are on at the moment. Sure they have won two straight games and sure they looked good on National TV on Monday but you have to think that the short week of practice, combined with Thanksgiving for many and the travelling issue and this could be one hell of a big letdown spot for the Broncos. Denver is 2-2 away from home this season but they are only 1-3 ATS in those games and have really not looked good on the road. They have played more home games than most teams in the NFL which could be another reason the public is perceiving them as worthy of betting on in this spot. Denver is coming off wins over Tennessee and Kansas City which was impressive but they looked like crap on opening day in Buffalo (escaping with a lucky win), they got spanked by the Colts two weeks later on the road and followed that up with a 37 point loss in Detroit. I still can't believe that happened but it did and shows you what kind of road team they can be. The Broncos come into this game averaging 22.7 points per game in their last three games this season and they have done that by also averaging 329.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games which is not that bad. Chicago's defense has been hit hard by injuries all season yet they have held their last three opponents to only 17.3 points per game and in those games they have allowed only 327.7 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play which is not too bad at all. On the ground, the Broncos have been winning games recently because they average 118.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on a whopping 5.0 yards per carry. However, both RB Travis Henry and RB Selvin Young will probably miss this game which means the next leading rusher is QB Jay Cutler. The Bears have allowed 111.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.2 yards per carry but can afford to drop guys into coverage for this game seeing how the Broncos won't have an effective running back. Cutler has completed 63.7% of his passes the last three games for 6.2 yards per pass attempt but he has been sacked 7 times in those games and is going to feel the wrath of the Bears pass rush which has picked up steam in recent weeks and has 10 sacks in their last three games. Cutler has thrown only 2 interceptions in his last three games but the Bears are due to make some big plays and with all the pressure, I think Cutler makes a few mistakes in this one. Denever has fumbled the ball 8 times in their last three games losing 4 of those fumbles and that is a big problem here seeing how the Bears defense has forced 5 fumbles in their last three games. As good as Cutler and Denver have been on third downs the last three games, the Bears defense has held opponents to a 29.5% converison rate over the last three games which is #1 in the NFL. Denver has been pretty damn useless when it comes to discipline in their last three games as they average a whopping 9.7 penalties per game and that is not going to get them very far in this game. Denver will not look as good as they have the past few weeks and I see their offense having some big problems getting things going which means the Bears are going to get comfortable on defense and force some big plays.
The Chicago Bears are not a team I have bothered betting on once this season and as happy as I am that I laid off these guys, I am happy to say that im about to back them now and make them winners. The outlook for the Bears and thier season is very bleak and its bad but I wouldn't say its over just yet because right now they sit at 4-6 on the season with a very winnable game today against Denver and some winnable games against the New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings. I know the Bears are coming off a bad loss in Seattle last weekend but they competed in that game and came up a few plays short of winning. So after playing well in a game like that and after disappointing home fans over and over again this season with their pathetic 1-3 straight up record at home, will this finally be the week that the Bears give the people of Chicago somethign to cheer about? I think so. Chicago has won 3 of their last 4 road games and looked about a thouands times better away from home but it's time to man up and show the NFL that you have a homefield and that you can win there. The Bears are 0-4 ATS at home this season and I just don't see how they could every possibly move to 0-5 ATS after this game. The Bears come into this game averaging only 15.7 points per game in their last three games this season and they have done that by averaging only 298.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. Denver's defense thinks they have played well in recent weeks but last time I checked they had allowed 25.0 points per game in their last three games and had allowed 361.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. OUCH! So if the Bears are ever to get going, now is the time to do it. On the ground, the Bears have managed to rush for only 82.7 rushing yards per game over their last three games for 3.3 yards per carry which is not good but RB Cedric Benson could have some success in this game as Denver has allowed 110.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.1 yards per carry. That should soften things up in the air for QB Rex Grossman who is back in again. Grossman actually looked really good against Seattle despite not throwing a touchdown pass or throwing an interception and I think he respons well to getting another chance as the starter. He passed for almost 300 yards last week and completed 64.0% of his passes. In their last three games, Denver has allowed opposing QB's to complete 55.6% of their passes for only 6.4 yards per passs attempt. Chicago's offensive line has allowed 10 sacks in their last three games while Denver has 6 sacks in their last three games so running the ball is going to be important and quick out passes are going to be the key for Grossman. The Broncos defense is very aggressive and they have 5 interceptions in their last three games and have forced a whopping 9 fumbles in those games. However, the Bears have been very good with the ball and they have lost only 1 fumble in their last three games which means that winning the turnover battle is not impossible but needed to win this game. The Bears have done a decent job on third downs recently, converting 39.1% of them in their last three games and they are up against a Denver defense that has allowed their last three opponents to convert 42.2% of their third down chances. I don't know what to expect from this Chicago offense here but I know that they can move the chains and they can probably put some points on the board against a Denver defense that has allowed way too many points in recent weeks. WR Bernard Berrian is defintiely playing and even though the deep ball won't be available, I think Grossman is going to take a few shots downfield and make some big plays in this game.
Vegas is asking you guys to bite on this baby and most of you have already taken a big bite of the chunky Denver line. This is a classic case where Vegas is challenging you to remember a bit more than just what happened last weekend in the NFL and most of you are having problems doing that. Just because Denver looked really good on Monday Night Football and just beacuse they have won two straight games and look like they are about to make a run for the playoffs, DOES NOT MEAN they are going to win a tough road game. DID YOU GUYS KNOW THAT RB SELVING YOUNG HAS NOT PRACTICED ONCE THIS WEEK FOR THE BRONCOS? That is one heck of an injury to have here because once again that puts everything on the Broncos passing game. I also hope that you guys have not forgotten that this is the same Denver team that lost by 37 points on the road against Detroit this season and that plunging back into that ineffective coma is still a possibility for these guys. The Bears owe their hometown fans a lot more than they have given them a win here would pretty much have everyone in this city buzzing again. I mean you cannot go to the SuperBowl one season and then be 1-4 at home the next season. I refuse to believe that the Bears can't play much better than that and I am calling for this to be their breakout week. OFFICIALLY!
Trend of the Game: Denver is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games that follow a straight up win.
Chicago 27, Denver 17
ONCE AGAIN HAPPY THANKSGIVING WEEKEND TO EVERYONE AND THEIR FAMILIES NOW LETS KICK SOME ASS BEFORE A HUGE SUNDAY NIGHT PLAY!
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