MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 23-16-3 (+126.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 23-16-3 (+126.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
3-0 ATS on Thanksgiving last season
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Thursday, November 22
Green Bay Packers -3 (10 Units)
The Green Bay Packers went from one of the most mediocre looking teams in the NFC in 2006 to what most will probably call the second best team in the NFC in 2007...up to now anyways. So why in the world would you open your Thanksgiving weekend by fading good teams. This is the same kind of lesson I was trying to teach last week with the Kansas Jayhawks. Why try to fix something if it ain't broke? Green Bay is not only 9-1 straight up this season but they are an impressive 8-1-1 ATS in those 10 games and its evident that oddsmakers continue to have problems getting a good grip on this team. Green Bay is coming off two huge home wins at Lambeau Field where they outscored Minnesota and Carolina by a combined total of 65-17. So we know they played well at home and that comes as no surprise to anyone but they are also 4-0 straight up away from home and 4-0 ATS in those games. The Packers beat the Giants on the road by 20, they beat the Vikings on the road by 7, they beat the Broncos on the road by 6 and they beat the Chiefs on the road by 11. The Lions are not much better than any of those listed teams so you have to believe that if Green Bay is going to win this game again, they are going to do it by at least 4+ points like they have done all season away from home. Winning this game would definitely put away the division title and almost guarantee home field advantage in the playoffs. The Packers come into this game averaging 32.7 points per game in their last three games this season and they have done that on 412.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play in those games. Detroit has allowed only 18.0 points per game in their last three games and allowed only 321.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.9 yards per play in those games which is not all that bad. On the ground, even with the emergence of RB Ryan Grant, the Packers average only 100.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games for only 3.5 yards per carry which won't do much against a Lions defense that has allowed only 64.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and allowed 2.7 yards per carry in those games. That leaves it up to Captain Football himself QB Brett Favre who has now completed 72.3% of his passes the last three games for 8.4 yards per pass attempt. The Lions defense does not allow many big plays but they have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete 69.0% of their passes even if it's for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The Lions have had success against the pass because they have 10 sacks in their last three games but the Packers offensive line has allowed only 2 sacks in their last three games and Favre has been careful with where the throws the ball. The Lions last three opposing QB's also have an average QB Rating of 94.4 which is a lot and which is too much room for Favre to operate. The Lions have recovered 8 fumbles in their last three games but won't have that luxury against the Packers who have lost 0 fumbles in their last three games. Green Bay has been converting 51.2% of their third down chances in their last three games while the Lions defense has allowed 41.9% of their third down chances to be completed against in their last three games. The Packers are just too good on all sides of the ball and the Lions have not faced enough opponents of this caliber to know what's coming. The Lions defense has been okay but not good enough to stop the surgning Packers and it's going to show in this game.
The Detroit Lions have their fans going a little bit crazy right now because for the first time in God knows how many years, they are not down and out of the playoff race by the time Thanksgiving weekend comes around. Can you guys believe that at this time last season, the Miami Dolphins were actually favored on the road against these very same Detroit Lions on Turkey Day? So the Lions have big time hopes of making the playoffs this season but those hopes are going to have to be wildcard hopes because it looks like the Packers, who already have a three game lead in this division, can put the crown away with a win in this game. A lot of people are going to argue that Detroit is 4-1 straight up at home and 3-1-1 ATS in those games this season but if you take a look back at those home games, they struggled to beat Minnesota and neeeded overtime to do it, they beat the hapless Chicago Bears by 10 points, they beat Tampa Bay by 7 points, they beat the Denver Broncos by 37 points but then they lost to the Giants last week by 6 points. So while looking good in most home games, the one time they faced a good conference opponents, they somewhat looked like a lost team and ended up losing to the Giants. The Lions come into this game averaging a very respectable 25.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 332.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.0 yards per play in those games. Green Bay's defense has been good all season and been phenomal as of late as they have allowed only 13.0 points per game in their last threee games and allowed only 287.7 total yards of offense on 5.4 yards per play in those games. If you're going to beat the Packers you're going to have to do it on the ground since they have allowed 92.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games but allowed 4.2 yards per carry in those games which is a lot. Having said that, Detroit is averaging only a pathetic 45.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 2.9 yards per carry meaning they don't come anywhere close to being a team that poses a threat with their running attack. So in the air we go where QB Jon Kitna has completed 63.9% of his passes the last three games for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Packers secondary has been pretty sharp and they have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete only 56.8% of their passes for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. What's even more impressive is that the defensive line has 10 sacks in their last three games while Detroit's offensive line is terrible and has allowed 8 sacks in their last three games. That pressure is probably the reason Jon Kitna has thrown 5 interceptions in his last three games played which can't be good against a Green Bay secondary that has 5 interceptions of their own over the last three games. The last three QB's they have faced have averaged a QB Rating of only 67.2 which is as good as it gets in the NFL on defense. The Lions are not a good third down team as of late as they have converted only 31.2% of their third down chances the last three games while the Packers have one of the best third down defenses in the NFL as they have allowed their last three opponents to convert only 24.2% of their chances which is pretty damn good. Detroit can come into this game and try to pass all they want but the bottom line is that Kitna is going to be under big time pressure all game and when put under pressure he tends to make a lot of mistakes. Want proof? The Lions have fumbled the ball 10 times in their last three games and have lost 5 of those fumbles which again is not good when playing against an aggressive defense like that of the Packers who have been forcing at least one fumble per game in their last three games. Detroit might score some points in this game but it won't be enough to keep up with the pace Favre is going to set and once again, the Lions are going to be left in the Turkey Day dust by a much better team.
You people have to start learning how things work on Thanksgiving. I am going to start with the same small speech for each and everyone of the games today where I tell you that this is a huge day for the books and the people in Vegas because a bunch of new amateur gamblers start betting for the very first time. This is the one day of the season where bettors, for some reason, seem to do very well with public plays and games usually go the way they are supposed to. So in other words, good teams will be good teams and bad teams will be bad teams. Now in this case the Lions have looked good in some games but you just can't go against Brett Favre and his newfound ability to win games at his age. There is no stopping the Packers and what they are doing and seeing how Favre has won two of his last three games in Detroit, I don't see why he can't kick things off on Turkey Day with a bang. So after all that, I tell you once again that you dont mess with something that is not broken. Favre and the Packers are 8-1-1 ATS on the season, there is absolutely no valid excuse to fade them on the spread and it just doesn't make sense to think that the Lions are going to be only the second team this season to stop them from winning and covering. Favre kicks things off with a huge win for the Packers, once again, on National TV.
Trend of the Game: Green Bay is 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
Green Bay 33, Detroit 14
Dallas Cowboys -14.5 (50 Units) ***TURKEY PLAY OF THE DAY***
The New York Jets are not that bad of a team when you think they, they are just 2-8 straight up on the season, they have covered the spread in only 3 of their 10 games this season and they are once again bottom feeders in the AFC Conference. So they aren't that bad, they're just awful and I don't see things getting any better against what is quite possibly the second best team in the NFL right now. The Jets come into this game off their biggest win of the season as they somehow managed the beat the Steelers at home last weekend but with the travel week and the little time to recover and prepare for this game, don't expect the Jets to look anything like they did last Sunday. That was the first time in their last six games this season that the Jets actually outyard one of their opponents as they have been outyarded in almost each and every one of their games on the year. Now before you consider touching the points in this game, consider that the Jets are a winless 0-4 straight up on the road and they are only 1-3 ATS in those games which doesn't make them an inviting road dog. They lost Baltimore on the road by 7 points, they lost to Buffalo on the road by three points, they lost to the Giants on the road by 11 points and they lost to Bengals on the road by 7 points. Only one of those teams is making the playoffs so you can imagine what a step up in class this is going to be. The Jets come into this game averaging only 14.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that by also averaging 296.3 total yards of offense per game and a pathetic 4.7 yards per play in those games. Dallas has been pretty damn good defensively allowing only 20.0 points per game in their last three games this season and they have done that by allowing only 346.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Jets average 125.0 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games which should give them a bit of leverage here against a Cowboys run defense that has allowed 3.7 yards per carry on only 78.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games. So as much as they can run, the inevitable is that they are going to have to throw the ball. In the air, QB Kellen Clemens got the win against the Steelers but has completed only 52.4% of his passes the last three games for a pathetic 4.9 yards per pass attempt which means that the chances of any big time gains in this game are not good for the Jets. The Cowboys have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete 62.2% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. The biggest problem for the Jets has been protecting their QB this season as they have allowed 9 sacks in their last three games and have to go up against a Cowboys defensive front that has 9 sacks in their last three games and that have forced more than one fumble per game in those games. On top of the sacks and forced fumbles, the Cowboys also have 5 interceptions in their last three games which means that they are more likely than not going to make some big plays here as Clemens is going to be pressured into bad throws and bad decisions all afternoon long in this one. Another problem for the Jets has been their play once they enter the Red Zone as they have scored touchdowns only 22.2% of the time in their last three games while inside the Red Zone and have had to settle for 8 Field Goal attempts instead which is pretty much what the Cowboys like to see. The Jets can't score points against bad teams so I don't see why they should fare any better in this game when they are going up against the type of pressure defense that doesn't come anywhere near their style of play. I think the Cowboys are going to flex some big time muscle in this game and it's going to come at the expense of Clemens and his offense.
The Dallas Cowboys are no longer on the bubble when it comes to being one of the best teams in the NFL. I don't think there is much more that this team can do to prove that their are definitely a top contender for the NFC Championship this season and I don't think it's a coincidence that they the Packers and Cowboys are playing on the same afternoon on National TV in front of a bunch of Turkey Day fans. I know it's tradition but it's also a bit ironic. The Cowboys come into this game with a 9-1 straight up record on the year with their only blunder being against the undefeated New England Patriots and although they have not been as good on the spread as the Packers have been (with the same record), their 7-3 ATS mark is good enough for me to know that the Cowboys more often than not exceed expectations. The Cowboys are now 4-1 straight up at home this season and despite losing 2 of their 5 home games on the spread, will be relieved to face a team like the Jets. If you're doubting what the Cowboys can do at home look no further than their 10 point home win against the Giants, their 28 point win over the St. Louis Rams, their 10 point home win against the Vikings and their 5 point win over the Washington Redskins on the weekend, a game they would love to have back because of how poorly they think they played. Had it not been for TO and Romo, the Cowboys woulda surely lost. Moving on. The Cowboys come into this game averaging 32.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 372.0 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 6.7 yards per play in those games. The Jets have been decent on the defensive side of things lately as they have allowed only 17.3 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 347.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.5 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Cowboys have actually not had much success running the ball with Lawrence Maroney and Julius Jones as they average only 88.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for only 3.3 yards per carry in those games. However, this is a big game on National TV and I have a feeling that both guys could have huge games against a defense that has allowed 172.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.4 yards per carry in those games. Expect a lot more from both running backs in this game. In the air, QB Tony Romo has been as good as it gets the last three games having completed 72.9% of his passes for a crazy 10.0 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 129.5 in those games. WOW! Romo has had great protection and has been sacked only three times during those games so he doesn't have to worry much about the Jets and their ability to pass rush because it only works against weaker offensive lines. You know good teams are good when you notice that they don't turn the ball over much. Dallas has lost 0 fumbles in their last three games and if the Jets want any kind of hope of keeping this close, they have to force turnovers which I don't think they can do. Dallas is one of the best third down teams in the NFL this season as they have converted 58.9% of their third down chances the last three games and that usually helps score points. The Cowboys have scored touchdowns 71.4% of the time when in the RedZone over their last three games which is good against a tight defense like the Jets. They have been forced to settle for only 3 FG attempts in those games and if they can keep scoring points from all over the place, should have no problems winning this large. The Cowboys are just way too powerful to take their foot off the pedal at this point in the season and with a National Audience watching, you can bet your bottom dollar they are going to look a lot better than they did against the Redskins on the weekend.
You people have to start learning how things work on Thanksgiving. I am going to start with the same small speech for each and everyone of the games today where I tell you that this is a huge day for the books and the people in Vegas because a bunch of new amateur gamblers start betting for the very first time. This is the one day of the season where bettors, for some reason, seem to do very well with public plays and games usually go the way they are supposed to. So in other words, good teams will be good teams and bad teams will be bad teams. The New York Jets had little hope coming into this game but with superstar WR Laveranues Coles being out of this game with an ankle problem, the Jets problems just got a whole lot deeper. They don't have a threat on the ground, they don't have a threat in the air so the only hope of covering the spread here would be to hold the Cowboys to under 20 points in this game and I really don't think that is going to happen despite how well they played against the Steelers last week. J-E-T-S SUCK SUCK SUCK! I mean you have to be really hard headed to think the Jets have a shot here without an offense to keep pace with Romo and TO. In their last eight road games versus teams with winning home records, the Jets have covered the spread in only one of those games so forget about that happening here. This is my largest play of the day and I don't think the Jets are going to cover the spread for more than a quarter in this game.
Trend of the Game: Dallas is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
Dallas 36, NY Jets 13
Indianapolis Colts -12 (25 Units)
The Indianapolis Colts are fading and it looks like they are fading pretty damn fast. It's not that they are losing games and it's not that they are no longer looking like one of the top two teams in the NFL but ever since their ATS cover against the Patriots a few weeks back (despite the loss), they have not covered the spread in any of their two games since and that is what makes some people skeptical about betting them here. The Colts have not been the same without WR Marvin Harrison as he is once again out for tonight's game and the chances are that WR Anthony Gonzalez is also out. Having said that, I think is the perfect spot for the Colts to get back on track and lay the smackdown on one of their vulnerable opponents. After losing to the Chargers the week following the Patriots game, the Colts once again looked hungover last weekend as they had problems beating the Kansas City Chiefs at home as 14.5 point favorites in that game. Indianapolis is 4-1 straight up on the road this season but they are only 2-3 ATS in those games and have not always looked good. The only two games they covered were against Carolina and Jacksonville where they won by 24 and 22 points resepctively. What you have to keep in mind about this Colts team is that despite not covering the spread much, they have outyarded their opponents in 8 of 10 games this season which means they usually control the pace of play. The Colts come into this game averaging 27.8 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 372.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.7 yards per play in those games. The Colts are going up against a Falcons defense that has allowed 21.3 points per game this season and that has allowed 321.8 total yards of offense per game this season on 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, this is where RB Joseph Addai has to show what he is made of. Addai and the Colts have rushed for 124.2 rushing yards per game this season and they have done that on 4.2 yards per carry. Atlanta is one of those teams that has problems stopping strong runners and they have allowed 124.0 rushing yards per game on the season for 4.3 yards per carry which should allow Addai to establish the much needed running game that Peyton Manning needs to run this offense. In the air, Manning has completed 62.8% of his passes this season for 2548 passing yards, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions (mind you half of those came in one game against the Chargers). The Atlanta secondary has allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.5% of their passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt which is just enough leverage for Manning to operate and move the chains effectively. The Falcons do not have a pass rush to speak of as they average only 1.4 sacks per game this season so once again Mannnig should have tons of time to pick apart this defense. What you really have to like about the Colts is that they have taken only 3.9 penalties per game this season (best in the NFL I believe) and they have been good with turnovers (with the exception of that one game). The Colts are converting 49.6% of the time on third downs this season and they are going up against a Falcons defense that has been good at times but that has had problems stopping opponents inside the RedZone. Now this is not going to be easy for Manning and the boys since they do have quite a few injuries on both sides of the ball but good teams overcome injury problems and good teams make sure they come out prepared for games like this. The Colts are a good team and I have full confidence that they can prove that in this game and win by a pretty comfortable margin. Atlanta just doesn't have enough weapons on either side of the ball to contain this team and Manning is in desperate need of a comfortable win. I think they have one here.
The Atlanta Falcons are one of those teams I have a trouble getting a good feel for. They are the kind of team that when you bet on them, they always lose and the kind of team that when you bet against them, they always win. That would explain why they are 3-7 straight up on the season but are 6-4 ATS in those games. The one and only time I bet on these guys this season was their 31-10 Monday Night Football loss agains the Giants at home where I was stupid enough to think that they had a chance to contend with a good team. Well I am not making that same mistake again in what is almost exactly the same kind of situation. It's a weeknight, it's on National TV, the Falcons are huge home underdogs but I don't know how this team has changed from the last time we saw them. You wanna talk about things getting bad against for the Falcons, QB Byron Leftwich was supposed to come in and lift this team but he is out of this game and WR Joe Horn (one of their only offensive weapons) is also out for tonight with a hamstring problem. So once again you are relying on the Falcons defense to shut down the Colts offense because I don't see how Atlanta is going to score enough points in this game to keep things close. You also have to consider that Altanta is 4-1 ATS on the road this season but only 2-3 ATS at home with losses of 20+ points against the only two decent home opponents they have faced this season (Buccaneers and Giants). The Falcons come into this game averaging only 14.2 points per game on the season and like I mentioned before, I don't see how there is any chance of that getting any better in this game as they average only 291.3 total yards of offense per game this season on a pathetic 4.9 yards per play in those games. Indianapolis has been solid defensively all season as they have allowed only 15.9 points per game on the year and allowed only 266.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.6 yards per play this season. That definitely puts them amongst the best defenses in the NFL which is what you expect from the defending champions. On the ground, Atlanta has managed to run well but not effectively enough averaging only 92.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per carry. The Colts have allowed 102.0 rushing yards per game this season on 3.9 yards per carry and I don't think they have to worry about the Falcons running too much in a game where they will play from behind. In the air, QB Joey Harrington is a mess as usual and he has completed 64.8% of his passes this season for 1876 passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions which is not that bad but not that good. He is going up against a Colts secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 65.2% of their passes this season which seems like a lot but they have all been short yardage gains and they have allowed only 5.2 yards per pass attempt on the season. I know Freeney is out for the Colts in this game but the door is wide open for the rest of this pass rush as Atlanta has allowed 32 sacks in 10 games this season and they have had problems protecting their quarterbacks. The Colts defense has 13 interceptions on the season and we all know how Joey Harrington tends to buckle under the pressure of nationally televised football games. The Colts have forced 19 fumbles this season whch is definitely good news seeing how Atlanta has fumbled the ball 11 times in 10 games and managed to lose about half of those. The biggest problem for Atlanta, and several players have complained about this, is that they have no problems getting to midfield but are one of the worst teams in the NFL once they cross the 50 yard line. We saw how bad they were on that Monday Night earlier in the year and the fact that they are scoring only touchdowns only 33.3% of the time once insisde the RedZone this season tells me that this could be a damn long night for Bobby Petrino and his guys. The Falcons are just a hapless team looking to finish out what has been a nightmare season that all started with the Michael Vick scandal last spring. Altanta doesn't have enough on offense to keep this game close and if you don't believe me, just go back and check their loss against the Giants to preview what is going to happen in this game.
You people have to start learning how things work on Thanksgiving. I am going to start with the same small speech for each and everyone of the games today where I tell you that this is a huge day for the books and the people in Vegas because a bunch of new amateur gamblers start betting for the very first time. This is the one day of the season where bettors, for some reason, seem to do very well with public plays and games usually go the way they are supposed to. So in other words, good teams will be good teams and bad teams will be bad teams. The Colts have not always looked like defending Super Bowl champions this season but that's because a) they have not been healthy and b) opponents are starting to learn that the Colts are not as effective when Peyton Manning doesn't have all his weapons in the offense. Having said that, good and mediocre teams can take advantage of the Colts by holding them at bay while scoring points of thier own but I don't think the Falcons can do either. Indianapolis has been somewhat embarassed by the way they have played in their last three games and this is a perfect opportunity for Tony Dungy to let his guys have fun, run the ball a lot and let Peyton Manning work things like he knows best. The Colts are my big play for tonight and I just don't see how this game is any different than Atlanta 31-10 loss to the Giants earlier in the season. This is a big public play for tonight but the books are just making new bettors get a big comfortable before the slaughter house weekend. GOBBLE GOBBLE!
Trend of the Game: Atlanta is 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
Indianapolis 28, Atlanta 6
HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL OF YOU AND YOUR FAMILIES! ALL THE BEST!
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 23-16-3 (+126.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
3-0 ATS on Thanksgiving last season
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Thursday, November 22
Green Bay Packers -3 (10 Units)
The Green Bay Packers went from one of the most mediocre looking teams in the NFC in 2006 to what most will probably call the second best team in the NFC in 2007...up to now anyways. So why in the world would you open your Thanksgiving weekend by fading good teams. This is the same kind of lesson I was trying to teach last week with the Kansas Jayhawks. Why try to fix something if it ain't broke? Green Bay is not only 9-1 straight up this season but they are an impressive 8-1-1 ATS in those 10 games and its evident that oddsmakers continue to have problems getting a good grip on this team. Green Bay is coming off two huge home wins at Lambeau Field where they outscored Minnesota and Carolina by a combined total of 65-17. So we know they played well at home and that comes as no surprise to anyone but they are also 4-0 straight up away from home and 4-0 ATS in those games. The Packers beat the Giants on the road by 20, they beat the Vikings on the road by 7, they beat the Broncos on the road by 6 and they beat the Chiefs on the road by 11. The Lions are not much better than any of those listed teams so you have to believe that if Green Bay is going to win this game again, they are going to do it by at least 4+ points like they have done all season away from home. Winning this game would definitely put away the division title and almost guarantee home field advantage in the playoffs. The Packers come into this game averaging 32.7 points per game in their last three games this season and they have done that on 412.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play in those games. Detroit has allowed only 18.0 points per game in their last three games and allowed only 321.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.9 yards per play in those games which is not all that bad. On the ground, even with the emergence of RB Ryan Grant, the Packers average only 100.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games for only 3.5 yards per carry which won't do much against a Lions defense that has allowed only 64.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and allowed 2.7 yards per carry in those games. That leaves it up to Captain Football himself QB Brett Favre who has now completed 72.3% of his passes the last three games for 8.4 yards per pass attempt. The Lions defense does not allow many big plays but they have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete 69.0% of their passes even if it's for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The Lions have had success against the pass because they have 10 sacks in their last three games but the Packers offensive line has allowed only 2 sacks in their last three games and Favre has been careful with where the throws the ball. The Lions last three opposing QB's also have an average QB Rating of 94.4 which is a lot and which is too much room for Favre to operate. The Lions have recovered 8 fumbles in their last three games but won't have that luxury against the Packers who have lost 0 fumbles in their last three games. Green Bay has been converting 51.2% of their third down chances in their last three games while the Lions defense has allowed 41.9% of their third down chances to be completed against in their last three games. The Packers are just too good on all sides of the ball and the Lions have not faced enough opponents of this caliber to know what's coming. The Lions defense has been okay but not good enough to stop the surgning Packers and it's going to show in this game.
The Detroit Lions have their fans going a little bit crazy right now because for the first time in God knows how many years, they are not down and out of the playoff race by the time Thanksgiving weekend comes around. Can you guys believe that at this time last season, the Miami Dolphins were actually favored on the road against these very same Detroit Lions on Turkey Day? So the Lions have big time hopes of making the playoffs this season but those hopes are going to have to be wildcard hopes because it looks like the Packers, who already have a three game lead in this division, can put the crown away with a win in this game. A lot of people are going to argue that Detroit is 4-1 straight up at home and 3-1-1 ATS in those games this season but if you take a look back at those home games, they struggled to beat Minnesota and neeeded overtime to do it, they beat the hapless Chicago Bears by 10 points, they beat Tampa Bay by 7 points, they beat the Denver Broncos by 37 points but then they lost to the Giants last week by 6 points. So while looking good in most home games, the one time they faced a good conference opponents, they somewhat looked like a lost team and ended up losing to the Giants. The Lions come into this game averaging a very respectable 25.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 332.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.0 yards per play in those games. Green Bay's defense has been good all season and been phenomal as of late as they have allowed only 13.0 points per game in their last threee games and allowed only 287.7 total yards of offense on 5.4 yards per play in those games. If you're going to beat the Packers you're going to have to do it on the ground since they have allowed 92.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games but allowed 4.2 yards per carry in those games which is a lot. Having said that, Detroit is averaging only a pathetic 45.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 2.9 yards per carry meaning they don't come anywhere close to being a team that poses a threat with their running attack. So in the air we go where QB Jon Kitna has completed 63.9% of his passes the last three games for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Packers secondary has been pretty sharp and they have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete only 56.8% of their passes for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. What's even more impressive is that the defensive line has 10 sacks in their last three games while Detroit's offensive line is terrible and has allowed 8 sacks in their last three games. That pressure is probably the reason Jon Kitna has thrown 5 interceptions in his last three games played which can't be good against a Green Bay secondary that has 5 interceptions of their own over the last three games. The last three QB's they have faced have averaged a QB Rating of only 67.2 which is as good as it gets in the NFL on defense. The Lions are not a good third down team as of late as they have converted only 31.2% of their third down chances the last three games while the Packers have one of the best third down defenses in the NFL as they have allowed their last three opponents to convert only 24.2% of their chances which is pretty damn good. Detroit can come into this game and try to pass all they want but the bottom line is that Kitna is going to be under big time pressure all game and when put under pressure he tends to make a lot of mistakes. Want proof? The Lions have fumbled the ball 10 times in their last three games and have lost 5 of those fumbles which again is not good when playing against an aggressive defense like that of the Packers who have been forcing at least one fumble per game in their last three games. Detroit might score some points in this game but it won't be enough to keep up with the pace Favre is going to set and once again, the Lions are going to be left in the Turkey Day dust by a much better team.
You people have to start learning how things work on Thanksgiving. I am going to start with the same small speech for each and everyone of the games today where I tell you that this is a huge day for the books and the people in Vegas because a bunch of new amateur gamblers start betting for the very first time. This is the one day of the season where bettors, for some reason, seem to do very well with public plays and games usually go the way they are supposed to. So in other words, good teams will be good teams and bad teams will be bad teams. Now in this case the Lions have looked good in some games but you just can't go against Brett Favre and his newfound ability to win games at his age. There is no stopping the Packers and what they are doing and seeing how Favre has won two of his last three games in Detroit, I don't see why he can't kick things off on Turkey Day with a bang. So after all that, I tell you once again that you dont mess with something that is not broken. Favre and the Packers are 8-1-1 ATS on the season, there is absolutely no valid excuse to fade them on the spread and it just doesn't make sense to think that the Lions are going to be only the second team this season to stop them from winning and covering. Favre kicks things off with a huge win for the Packers, once again, on National TV.
Trend of the Game: Green Bay is 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
Green Bay 33, Detroit 14
Dallas Cowboys -14.5 (50 Units) ***TURKEY PLAY OF THE DAY***
The New York Jets are not that bad of a team when you think they, they are just 2-8 straight up on the season, they have covered the spread in only 3 of their 10 games this season and they are once again bottom feeders in the AFC Conference. So they aren't that bad, they're just awful and I don't see things getting any better against what is quite possibly the second best team in the NFL right now. The Jets come into this game off their biggest win of the season as they somehow managed the beat the Steelers at home last weekend but with the travel week and the little time to recover and prepare for this game, don't expect the Jets to look anything like they did last Sunday. That was the first time in their last six games this season that the Jets actually outyard one of their opponents as they have been outyarded in almost each and every one of their games on the year. Now before you consider touching the points in this game, consider that the Jets are a winless 0-4 straight up on the road and they are only 1-3 ATS in those games which doesn't make them an inviting road dog. They lost Baltimore on the road by 7 points, they lost to Buffalo on the road by three points, they lost to the Giants on the road by 11 points and they lost to Bengals on the road by 7 points. Only one of those teams is making the playoffs so you can imagine what a step up in class this is going to be. The Jets come into this game averaging only 14.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that by also averaging 296.3 total yards of offense per game and a pathetic 4.7 yards per play in those games. Dallas has been pretty damn good defensively allowing only 20.0 points per game in their last three games this season and they have done that by allowing only 346.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Jets average 125.0 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games which should give them a bit of leverage here against a Cowboys run defense that has allowed 3.7 yards per carry on only 78.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games. So as much as they can run, the inevitable is that they are going to have to throw the ball. In the air, QB Kellen Clemens got the win against the Steelers but has completed only 52.4% of his passes the last three games for a pathetic 4.9 yards per pass attempt which means that the chances of any big time gains in this game are not good for the Jets. The Cowboys have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete 62.2% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. The biggest problem for the Jets has been protecting their QB this season as they have allowed 9 sacks in their last three games and have to go up against a Cowboys defensive front that has 9 sacks in their last three games and that have forced more than one fumble per game in those games. On top of the sacks and forced fumbles, the Cowboys also have 5 interceptions in their last three games which means that they are more likely than not going to make some big plays here as Clemens is going to be pressured into bad throws and bad decisions all afternoon long in this one. Another problem for the Jets has been their play once they enter the Red Zone as they have scored touchdowns only 22.2% of the time in their last three games while inside the Red Zone and have had to settle for 8 Field Goal attempts instead which is pretty much what the Cowboys like to see. The Jets can't score points against bad teams so I don't see why they should fare any better in this game when they are going up against the type of pressure defense that doesn't come anywhere near their style of play. I think the Cowboys are going to flex some big time muscle in this game and it's going to come at the expense of Clemens and his offense.
The Dallas Cowboys are no longer on the bubble when it comes to being one of the best teams in the NFL. I don't think there is much more that this team can do to prove that their are definitely a top contender for the NFC Championship this season and I don't think it's a coincidence that they the Packers and Cowboys are playing on the same afternoon on National TV in front of a bunch of Turkey Day fans. I know it's tradition but it's also a bit ironic. The Cowboys come into this game with a 9-1 straight up record on the year with their only blunder being against the undefeated New England Patriots and although they have not been as good on the spread as the Packers have been (with the same record), their 7-3 ATS mark is good enough for me to know that the Cowboys more often than not exceed expectations. The Cowboys are now 4-1 straight up at home this season and despite losing 2 of their 5 home games on the spread, will be relieved to face a team like the Jets. If you're doubting what the Cowboys can do at home look no further than their 10 point home win against the Giants, their 28 point win over the St. Louis Rams, their 10 point home win against the Vikings and their 5 point win over the Washington Redskins on the weekend, a game they would love to have back because of how poorly they think they played. Had it not been for TO and Romo, the Cowboys woulda surely lost. Moving on. The Cowboys come into this game averaging 32.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 372.0 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 6.7 yards per play in those games. The Jets have been decent on the defensive side of things lately as they have allowed only 17.3 points per game in their last three games and have allowed 347.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.5 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Cowboys have actually not had much success running the ball with Lawrence Maroney and Julius Jones as they average only 88.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for only 3.3 yards per carry in those games. However, this is a big game on National TV and I have a feeling that both guys could have huge games against a defense that has allowed 172.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.4 yards per carry in those games. Expect a lot more from both running backs in this game. In the air, QB Tony Romo has been as good as it gets the last three games having completed 72.9% of his passes for a crazy 10.0 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 129.5 in those games. WOW! Romo has had great protection and has been sacked only three times during those games so he doesn't have to worry much about the Jets and their ability to pass rush because it only works against weaker offensive lines. You know good teams are good when you notice that they don't turn the ball over much. Dallas has lost 0 fumbles in their last three games and if the Jets want any kind of hope of keeping this close, they have to force turnovers which I don't think they can do. Dallas is one of the best third down teams in the NFL this season as they have converted 58.9% of their third down chances the last three games and that usually helps score points. The Cowboys have scored touchdowns 71.4% of the time when in the RedZone over their last three games which is good against a tight defense like the Jets. They have been forced to settle for only 3 FG attempts in those games and if they can keep scoring points from all over the place, should have no problems winning this large. The Cowboys are just way too powerful to take their foot off the pedal at this point in the season and with a National Audience watching, you can bet your bottom dollar they are going to look a lot better than they did against the Redskins on the weekend.
You people have to start learning how things work on Thanksgiving. I am going to start with the same small speech for each and everyone of the games today where I tell you that this is a huge day for the books and the people in Vegas because a bunch of new amateur gamblers start betting for the very first time. This is the one day of the season where bettors, for some reason, seem to do very well with public plays and games usually go the way they are supposed to. So in other words, good teams will be good teams and bad teams will be bad teams. The New York Jets had little hope coming into this game but with superstar WR Laveranues Coles being out of this game with an ankle problem, the Jets problems just got a whole lot deeper. They don't have a threat on the ground, they don't have a threat in the air so the only hope of covering the spread here would be to hold the Cowboys to under 20 points in this game and I really don't think that is going to happen despite how well they played against the Steelers last week. J-E-T-S SUCK SUCK SUCK! I mean you have to be really hard headed to think the Jets have a shot here without an offense to keep pace with Romo and TO. In their last eight road games versus teams with winning home records, the Jets have covered the spread in only one of those games so forget about that happening here. This is my largest play of the day and I don't think the Jets are going to cover the spread for more than a quarter in this game.
Trend of the Game: Dallas is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
Dallas 36, NY Jets 13
Indianapolis Colts -12 (25 Units)
The Indianapolis Colts are fading and it looks like they are fading pretty damn fast. It's not that they are losing games and it's not that they are no longer looking like one of the top two teams in the NFL but ever since their ATS cover against the Patriots a few weeks back (despite the loss), they have not covered the spread in any of their two games since and that is what makes some people skeptical about betting them here. The Colts have not been the same without WR Marvin Harrison as he is once again out for tonight's game and the chances are that WR Anthony Gonzalez is also out. Having said that, I think is the perfect spot for the Colts to get back on track and lay the smackdown on one of their vulnerable opponents. After losing to the Chargers the week following the Patriots game, the Colts once again looked hungover last weekend as they had problems beating the Kansas City Chiefs at home as 14.5 point favorites in that game. Indianapolis is 4-1 straight up on the road this season but they are only 2-3 ATS in those games and have not always looked good. The only two games they covered were against Carolina and Jacksonville where they won by 24 and 22 points resepctively. What you have to keep in mind about this Colts team is that despite not covering the spread much, they have outyarded their opponents in 8 of 10 games this season which means they usually control the pace of play. The Colts come into this game averaging 27.8 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 372.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.7 yards per play in those games. The Colts are going up against a Falcons defense that has allowed 21.3 points per game this season and that has allowed 321.8 total yards of offense per game this season on 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, this is where RB Joseph Addai has to show what he is made of. Addai and the Colts have rushed for 124.2 rushing yards per game this season and they have done that on 4.2 yards per carry. Atlanta is one of those teams that has problems stopping strong runners and they have allowed 124.0 rushing yards per game on the season for 4.3 yards per carry which should allow Addai to establish the much needed running game that Peyton Manning needs to run this offense. In the air, Manning has completed 62.8% of his passes this season for 2548 passing yards, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 16 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions (mind you half of those came in one game against the Chargers). The Atlanta secondary has allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.5% of their passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt which is just enough leverage for Manning to operate and move the chains effectively. The Falcons do not have a pass rush to speak of as they average only 1.4 sacks per game this season so once again Mannnig should have tons of time to pick apart this defense. What you really have to like about the Colts is that they have taken only 3.9 penalties per game this season (best in the NFL I believe) and they have been good with turnovers (with the exception of that one game). The Colts are converting 49.6% of the time on third downs this season and they are going up against a Falcons defense that has been good at times but that has had problems stopping opponents inside the RedZone. Now this is not going to be easy for Manning and the boys since they do have quite a few injuries on both sides of the ball but good teams overcome injury problems and good teams make sure they come out prepared for games like this. The Colts are a good team and I have full confidence that they can prove that in this game and win by a pretty comfortable margin. Atlanta just doesn't have enough weapons on either side of the ball to contain this team and Manning is in desperate need of a comfortable win. I think they have one here.
The Atlanta Falcons are one of those teams I have a trouble getting a good feel for. They are the kind of team that when you bet on them, they always lose and the kind of team that when you bet against them, they always win. That would explain why they are 3-7 straight up on the season but are 6-4 ATS in those games. The one and only time I bet on these guys this season was their 31-10 Monday Night Football loss agains the Giants at home where I was stupid enough to think that they had a chance to contend with a good team. Well I am not making that same mistake again in what is almost exactly the same kind of situation. It's a weeknight, it's on National TV, the Falcons are huge home underdogs but I don't know how this team has changed from the last time we saw them. You wanna talk about things getting bad against for the Falcons, QB Byron Leftwich was supposed to come in and lift this team but he is out of this game and WR Joe Horn (one of their only offensive weapons) is also out for tonight with a hamstring problem. So once again you are relying on the Falcons defense to shut down the Colts offense because I don't see how Atlanta is going to score enough points in this game to keep things close. You also have to consider that Altanta is 4-1 ATS on the road this season but only 2-3 ATS at home with losses of 20+ points against the only two decent home opponents they have faced this season (Buccaneers and Giants). The Falcons come into this game averaging only 14.2 points per game on the season and like I mentioned before, I don't see how there is any chance of that getting any better in this game as they average only 291.3 total yards of offense per game this season on a pathetic 4.9 yards per play in those games. Indianapolis has been solid defensively all season as they have allowed only 15.9 points per game on the year and allowed only 266.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.6 yards per play this season. That definitely puts them amongst the best defenses in the NFL which is what you expect from the defending champions. On the ground, Atlanta has managed to run well but not effectively enough averaging only 92.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per carry. The Colts have allowed 102.0 rushing yards per game this season on 3.9 yards per carry and I don't think they have to worry about the Falcons running too much in a game where they will play from behind. In the air, QB Joey Harrington is a mess as usual and he has completed 64.8% of his passes this season for 1876 passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions which is not that bad but not that good. He is going up against a Colts secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 65.2% of their passes this season which seems like a lot but they have all been short yardage gains and they have allowed only 5.2 yards per pass attempt on the season. I know Freeney is out for the Colts in this game but the door is wide open for the rest of this pass rush as Atlanta has allowed 32 sacks in 10 games this season and they have had problems protecting their quarterbacks. The Colts defense has 13 interceptions on the season and we all know how Joey Harrington tends to buckle under the pressure of nationally televised football games. The Colts have forced 19 fumbles this season whch is definitely good news seeing how Atlanta has fumbled the ball 11 times in 10 games and managed to lose about half of those. The biggest problem for Atlanta, and several players have complained about this, is that they have no problems getting to midfield but are one of the worst teams in the NFL once they cross the 50 yard line. We saw how bad they were on that Monday Night earlier in the year and the fact that they are scoring only touchdowns only 33.3% of the time once insisde the RedZone this season tells me that this could be a damn long night for Bobby Petrino and his guys. The Falcons are just a hapless team looking to finish out what has been a nightmare season that all started with the Michael Vick scandal last spring. Altanta doesn't have enough on offense to keep this game close and if you don't believe me, just go back and check their loss against the Giants to preview what is going to happen in this game.
You people have to start learning how things work on Thanksgiving. I am going to start with the same small speech for each and everyone of the games today where I tell you that this is a huge day for the books and the people in Vegas because a bunch of new amateur gamblers start betting for the very first time. This is the one day of the season where bettors, for some reason, seem to do very well with public plays and games usually go the way they are supposed to. So in other words, good teams will be good teams and bad teams will be bad teams. The Colts have not always looked like defending Super Bowl champions this season but that's because a) they have not been healthy and b) opponents are starting to learn that the Colts are not as effective when Peyton Manning doesn't have all his weapons in the offense. Having said that, good and mediocre teams can take advantage of the Colts by holding them at bay while scoring points of thier own but I don't think the Falcons can do either. Indianapolis has been somewhat embarassed by the way they have played in their last three games and this is a perfect opportunity for Tony Dungy to let his guys have fun, run the ball a lot and let Peyton Manning work things like he knows best. The Colts are my big play for tonight and I just don't see how this game is any different than Atlanta 31-10 loss to the Giants earlier in the season. This is a big public play for tonight but the books are just making new bettors get a big comfortable before the slaughter house weekend. GOBBLE GOBBLE!
Trend of the Game: Atlanta is 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
Indianapolis 28, Atlanta 6
HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL OF YOU AND YOUR FAMILIES! ALL THE BEST!
