MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 44-31-6 (-66.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 35-23-4 (-3.50 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-6-2 (-24.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-2-1 (+172.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-1 (-170.00 Units)
*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.
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Thursday, December 7
Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (25 Units)
The Cleveland Browns are definitely one of the teams every has to be watching the final eight games of the season because they have shown more than once that they are willing to play the playoff spoiler role seeing that their season is virtually over. That's nice and all butthe Browns are coming off a very emotional win on Sunday (just four days ago) and I don't see how they can come into a divisional rivalry like this and perform as well as they did in another upset win. The Browns and Romeo Crennel are going to be a better team over the next few years but the spot here is bad because the Steelers know they can beat Cleveland and they know exactly what they have to do to do it. The Browns are going to be without QB Charlie Frye who has led them quite nicely this season. In comes QB Derek Anderson who looked great last week but that was when he came into the game with no pressure of being successful. Remember Tony Romo's brutal performance as a sub-in for Bledsoe and then his next start he was great? Well this is the opposite. Anderson as a starter, probably won't be the same. The Browns are averaging 19.0 points per game on the road but have only 272.2 total yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. Pittsburgh's defense has not been the same this season but they allow only 307.3 total yards per home game for 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, RB Ruben Droughns has been pathetic this season. Droughns averages only 34.6 rushing yards per game in 12 games versus AFC North teams. The Steelers don't allow much on the ground so let's see how Anderson does against a defense that is without their Hawaiian leader but that did okay without him last week. The Steelers have intercepted almost 3 passes per game at home this season so expect Anderson to be forced into messy mistakes in this weather. I don't like the spot with the kind of weather and I don't think the Browns are going to come close to showing up for this game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers still have a chance even though that chance is very small. You never know in the NFL and if the Super Bowl Gods have anything to do with this, the Steelers will somehow miraculously end up in the playoffs. Until all hope is dead, there is no sense fading this team at home where they are 4-2 ATS and have done very well when it comes to blowing out teams by more than 7. With the snow falling in this game, could the Steelers ask for anything better? This means that they can run the ball like they wanted to and probably have more success doing it since it's tough to tackle in the snow or when it's wet. The Steelers have covered their last two home games against Tampa Bay and New Orleans and although those were NFC opponents, the 45-7 win over Kansas City earlier this year solidifies the way this team plays at home when it matters. The last time it was snowing in Pittsburgh, the Steelers easily beat the Chicago Bears 21-9 and the Steelers put on a running clinic. I know Bill Cowher remembers the first meeting between these teams where Willie Parker was stopped and big Ben had to throw 44 times. That's not happening today. The Steelers average 28.5 points per game at home this season on 399.0 total yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. Cleveland's defense is allowing 24.0 points per road game this season. On the ground, RB Willie Parker is averaging 116.8 rushing yards per home game this season compared to only 45.8 per road game. He is going up against a Cleveland defense allowing 162.4 rushing yards per road game on 6.0 yards per carry and I expect Parker to run it 28+ times tonight (check below). In the air, QB Ben Roethlisberger will be limited with 2 of his top 3 receivers out (Ward and Wilson). However, when the Steelers don't run, look for them to throw to TE Heath Miller who should make huge plays in this game. Pittsburgh is converting 45.8% of their 3rd downs at home and I expect them to bring some heat early in this game. Cleveland pass defense is allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt the last three weeks and I would like to think they are in trouble here if and when Big Ben throws the ball. Regardless, this is the Willie Parker show tonight and I see him teraing a few holes into the Browns (doesn't sound right) defense.
There is no public favorite or public sheep in this one because the big bets are going on the UNDER in this game as they are forecasting some snow for the game tonight. Here is how I can sum this game up in a nutshell. Cleveland is currently 3-2 ATS on the road this season. In their three road covers, the home RB attempted no more than 21 carries in any of those games. Seeing that Cleveland's run defense is almost dead last on the road, it would have been smart to let Warrick Dunn (21 carries), Ladainlin Tomlinson (18 carries) and Lamont Jordan (20 carries) run the ball more. Those teams went 0-3 ATS hosting Cleveland. The two road games where Cleveland failed to cover, the home RB was handed the ball at least 24 times which makes sense when you have the worst road run defense playing against you. Deshaun Foster (24 carries) and Rudi Johnson (26 carries) both led their teams to wins and covers at home against Cleveland. Since Pittsburgh will barely throw the ball tonight like they did in the first meeting, Willie Parker should rush for 26+ times which means the Steelers cover this game.
Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win.
Pittsburgh 31, Cleveland 0
:cheers:
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 35-23-4 (-3.50 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-6-2 (-24.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-2-1 (+172.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-1 (-170.00 Units)
*Reminder: I post the lines I wagered on. These are my plays and personal thoughts on games. I am not asking everyone to agree, only posting these to help people with information.
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Thursday, December 7
Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (25 Units)
The Cleveland Browns are definitely one of the teams every has to be watching the final eight games of the season because they have shown more than once that they are willing to play the playoff spoiler role seeing that their season is virtually over. That's nice and all butthe Browns are coming off a very emotional win on Sunday (just four days ago) and I don't see how they can come into a divisional rivalry like this and perform as well as they did in another upset win. The Browns and Romeo Crennel are going to be a better team over the next few years but the spot here is bad because the Steelers know they can beat Cleveland and they know exactly what they have to do to do it. The Browns are going to be without QB Charlie Frye who has led them quite nicely this season. In comes QB Derek Anderson who looked great last week but that was when he came into the game with no pressure of being successful. Remember Tony Romo's brutal performance as a sub-in for Bledsoe and then his next start he was great? Well this is the opposite. Anderson as a starter, probably won't be the same. The Browns are averaging 19.0 points per game on the road but have only 272.2 total yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. Pittsburgh's defense has not been the same this season but they allow only 307.3 total yards per home game for 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, RB Ruben Droughns has been pathetic this season. Droughns averages only 34.6 rushing yards per game in 12 games versus AFC North teams. The Steelers don't allow much on the ground so let's see how Anderson does against a defense that is without their Hawaiian leader but that did okay without him last week. The Steelers have intercepted almost 3 passes per game at home this season so expect Anderson to be forced into messy mistakes in this weather. I don't like the spot with the kind of weather and I don't think the Browns are going to come close to showing up for this game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers still have a chance even though that chance is very small. You never know in the NFL and if the Super Bowl Gods have anything to do with this, the Steelers will somehow miraculously end up in the playoffs. Until all hope is dead, there is no sense fading this team at home where they are 4-2 ATS and have done very well when it comes to blowing out teams by more than 7. With the snow falling in this game, could the Steelers ask for anything better? This means that they can run the ball like they wanted to and probably have more success doing it since it's tough to tackle in the snow or when it's wet. The Steelers have covered their last two home games against Tampa Bay and New Orleans and although those were NFC opponents, the 45-7 win over Kansas City earlier this year solidifies the way this team plays at home when it matters. The last time it was snowing in Pittsburgh, the Steelers easily beat the Chicago Bears 21-9 and the Steelers put on a running clinic. I know Bill Cowher remembers the first meeting between these teams where Willie Parker was stopped and big Ben had to throw 44 times. That's not happening today. The Steelers average 28.5 points per game at home this season on 399.0 total yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. Cleveland's defense is allowing 24.0 points per road game this season. On the ground, RB Willie Parker is averaging 116.8 rushing yards per home game this season compared to only 45.8 per road game. He is going up against a Cleveland defense allowing 162.4 rushing yards per road game on 6.0 yards per carry and I expect Parker to run it 28+ times tonight (check below). In the air, QB Ben Roethlisberger will be limited with 2 of his top 3 receivers out (Ward and Wilson). However, when the Steelers don't run, look for them to throw to TE Heath Miller who should make huge plays in this game. Pittsburgh is converting 45.8% of their 3rd downs at home and I expect them to bring some heat early in this game. Cleveland pass defense is allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt the last three weeks and I would like to think they are in trouble here if and when Big Ben throws the ball. Regardless, this is the Willie Parker show tonight and I see him teraing a few holes into the Browns (doesn't sound right) defense.
There is no public favorite or public sheep in this one because the big bets are going on the UNDER in this game as they are forecasting some snow for the game tonight. Here is how I can sum this game up in a nutshell. Cleveland is currently 3-2 ATS on the road this season. In their three road covers, the home RB attempted no more than 21 carries in any of those games. Seeing that Cleveland's run defense is almost dead last on the road, it would have been smart to let Warrick Dunn (21 carries), Ladainlin Tomlinson (18 carries) and Lamont Jordan (20 carries) run the ball more. Those teams went 0-3 ATS hosting Cleveland. The two road games where Cleveland failed to cover, the home RB was handed the ball at least 24 times which makes sense when you have the worst road run defense playing against you. Deshaun Foster (24 carries) and Rudi Johnson (26 carries) both led their teams to wins and covers at home against Cleveland. Since Pittsburgh will barely throw the ball tonight like they did in the first meeting, Willie Parker should rush for 26+ times which means the Steelers cover this game.
Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win.
Pittsburgh 31, Cleveland 0
:cheers:
