MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 NFL Internet Posted Record: 50-40-6 (-366.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 41-31-4 (-248 .50 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-7-2 (-79.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-3-1 (+117.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)
*I am in the midst of a 3-4 week freefall in the NFL and in College football. I have nobody to blame but myself. I spent a few good hours thinking about what to do for the remaining few weeks and I have decided to go back to the basics of capping. Just good hardcore capping, no thinking, just bet with the gut and some stat support.
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Thursday, December 21
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 (25 Units)
The Minnesota Vikings were being called a definite post-season contender after starting the season 4-2 but things have not been so smooth since that start and the Vikings have gone 2-6 since. I actually don't think this is that bad of a team all their wins this season have come against weak NFC opposition and the Vikings are 0-4 this season versus AFC teams. If you're not going to beat AFC opponents at least once or twice a year, there is no chance of making the playoffs. The Vikings are coming off a 26-13 loss to the AFC Jets and prior to that, an impressive 10 point road win over the reeling Detroit Lions. For anyone who has followed the series between these two teams over the year, you will know that for whatever reason, the road team has always performed well. The Vikings have won three of their last four games at Lambeau Field and the only one they lost was by a measly three points. Much like Green Bay has won three of their last four trips to the MetroDome and their only loss there was by three points. So basically no matter what the circumstance or the situation, the Vikings always show up to play in Lambeau whether they win or lose by a late Field Goal. I don't see things changing in this game because the Vikings still have an outside shot at an 8-8 finish which could somehow sneak them into the playoffs. Minnesota is averaging 18.3 points per game on the road this season for 320.9 total yards and only 4.9 yards per play. Green Bay's defense at Lambeau has allowed 25.6 points per game on 318.0 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, Minnesota is averaging 133.9 rushing yards per road game on 4.1 yards per carry but Green Bay's defensive line is strong and they have held their home opponents to only 102.7 rushing yards per game at Lambeau for only 3.5 yards per carry. In the air, QB Tavaris Jackson is making his first NFL career start and it's on National TV. The kid has looked impressive in the games he has played and he has completed 63.0% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt and he is exactly what this offense needs to stretch out the field and force teams to spread out and cover them deep. Jackson has the ability to run and on three carries this season he has 20 yards. Not bad and he might be let loose tonight. Green Bay's defense is allowing visiting teams to complete 61.9% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass. Minnesota's lack of protection on Brad Johnson has been a problem all year. Green Bay's pass rush is very good but Jackson is a mobile QB and we should notice a big time difference in the game tonight. Green Bay's Red Zone defense sucks at home and I see the Vikings controlling most of this game on the ground and then completing some huge passes in the air. This is the beginning of Minnesota's future.
The Green Bay Packers had a much better season then most probably anticipated before this all started but how legit have all their wins been? I think Favre and the Packers have burned me everytime I have gone against them but I don't see them same happening tonight. The Packers have won two straight games and are on a bit of roll but beating up on Detroit and San Francisco is nothing to get too crazy about and I will tell you right now that Minnesota is about 4-5 notches above both of those teams. The Packers have a small chance of still making the playoffs which is something Brett Favre is probably dying for but even if they do win this game, it won't be by more than a late Field Goal and I have a feeling that Green Bay backers are going to wish they had bought the hook or better on this game. Green Bay's only legitimate home opponents the last two months have been the New York Jets and the New England Patriots and the Packers lost those two games by a combined score of 73-10. Now that's some incredible stuff because it goes to show that the only reason Green Bay is 6-8 on the season is because they have won against some of the worst teams in the NFL. The Packers are averaging only 15.0 points per game at home this season on 306.4 total yards and 4.9 yards per play. That's pretty damn pathetic for a home team. The Vikings are allowing only 17.4 points per game on the road this season and they have done it by allowing only 231.9 total yards and only 4.3 yards per play. This has to be one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL by far. On the ground, Green Bay's success usually revolves around their running attack of RB Ahman Green. The Packers average a nice 4.6 yards per carry at home but Minnesota has the best run defense the NFL has seen in maybe 30 years as they allow only 52.9 rushing yards per game on 2.4 yards per carry away from home. In the air, Brett Favre has completed a pathetic 53.5% of his passes at home for only 5.1 yards per pass attempt while throwing only 6 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions at Lambeau. Minnesota's pass defense has allowed only 5.6 yards per pass attempt this season and they have made some big plays that have kept this team in games. The Vikings have 10 interceptions on the road this season and much like the Packers, have a great pass rush. Brett Favre is going to be a lot more susceptible to the sack tonight and I see the Vikes forcing him into tons of mistakes. The Vikings have recovered at least one fumble per road game this season and their Red Zone defense on the road is one of the best in the NFL as they allow only 26.7% touchdowns once inside the Red Zone on the road. Minnesota also has a huge advantage in the Special Teams play tonight and I think the Packers go down hard.
What do you do when a game is meaningless (well both teams can technically make it but cmon)? It's not easy but you pretty much look at who is playing for next season and who really doesn't give much of damn if they win or lose. That's what makes it even thougher because Minnesota and QB Tavaris Jackson are playing for next season while the Green Bay Packers are not playing for anything but when was the last time you saw Brett Favre play for nothing? The guy is always up to the task no matter how shot the season is which is why Green Bay is an intriguing bet for many. However, Minnesota has been the overall better team this season and a mid-season collapse is probably the only reason they are not fighting for a playoff spot in this game. Thier victories have been more convincing than Green Bay's and I think the Vikings have more to prove on National TV. Revenge alone is something to play for and so is a small chance at the playoffs.
Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 versus the NFC North.
Formula Advantage: Minnesota +8.49
Minnesota 21, Green Bay 9
:cheers:
2006 NFL Internet ATS Record: 41-31-4 (-248 .50 Units)
2006 NFL Internet O/U Record: 9-7-2 (-79.80 Units)
2006 NFL Internet Half Record: 0-2 (-38.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 11-3-1 (+117.50 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 1-1 (-1.00 Units)
NFL PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-2 (-335.00 Units)
*I am in the midst of a 3-4 week freefall in the NFL and in College football. I have nobody to blame but myself. I spent a few good hours thinking about what to do for the remaining few weeks and I have decided to go back to the basics of capping. Just good hardcore capping, no thinking, just bet with the gut and some stat support.
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Thursday, December 21
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 (25 Units)
The Minnesota Vikings were being called a definite post-season contender after starting the season 4-2 but things have not been so smooth since that start and the Vikings have gone 2-6 since. I actually don't think this is that bad of a team all their wins this season have come against weak NFC opposition and the Vikings are 0-4 this season versus AFC teams. If you're not going to beat AFC opponents at least once or twice a year, there is no chance of making the playoffs. The Vikings are coming off a 26-13 loss to the AFC Jets and prior to that, an impressive 10 point road win over the reeling Detroit Lions. For anyone who has followed the series between these two teams over the year, you will know that for whatever reason, the road team has always performed well. The Vikings have won three of their last four games at Lambeau Field and the only one they lost was by a measly three points. Much like Green Bay has won three of their last four trips to the MetroDome and their only loss there was by three points. So basically no matter what the circumstance or the situation, the Vikings always show up to play in Lambeau whether they win or lose by a late Field Goal. I don't see things changing in this game because the Vikings still have an outside shot at an 8-8 finish which could somehow sneak them into the playoffs. Minnesota is averaging 18.3 points per game on the road this season for 320.9 total yards and only 4.9 yards per play. Green Bay's defense at Lambeau has allowed 25.6 points per game on 318.0 total yards and 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, Minnesota is averaging 133.9 rushing yards per road game on 4.1 yards per carry but Green Bay's defensive line is strong and they have held their home opponents to only 102.7 rushing yards per game at Lambeau for only 3.5 yards per carry. In the air, QB Tavaris Jackson is making his first NFL career start and it's on National TV. The kid has looked impressive in the games he has played and he has completed 63.0% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt and he is exactly what this offense needs to stretch out the field and force teams to spread out and cover them deep. Jackson has the ability to run and on three carries this season he has 20 yards. Not bad and he might be let loose tonight. Green Bay's defense is allowing visiting teams to complete 61.9% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass. Minnesota's lack of protection on Brad Johnson has been a problem all year. Green Bay's pass rush is very good but Jackson is a mobile QB and we should notice a big time difference in the game tonight. Green Bay's Red Zone defense sucks at home and I see the Vikings controlling most of this game on the ground and then completing some huge passes in the air. This is the beginning of Minnesota's future.
The Green Bay Packers had a much better season then most probably anticipated before this all started but how legit have all their wins been? I think Favre and the Packers have burned me everytime I have gone against them but I don't see them same happening tonight. The Packers have won two straight games and are on a bit of roll but beating up on Detroit and San Francisco is nothing to get too crazy about and I will tell you right now that Minnesota is about 4-5 notches above both of those teams. The Packers have a small chance of still making the playoffs which is something Brett Favre is probably dying for but even if they do win this game, it won't be by more than a late Field Goal and I have a feeling that Green Bay backers are going to wish they had bought the hook or better on this game. Green Bay's only legitimate home opponents the last two months have been the New York Jets and the New England Patriots and the Packers lost those two games by a combined score of 73-10. Now that's some incredible stuff because it goes to show that the only reason Green Bay is 6-8 on the season is because they have won against some of the worst teams in the NFL. The Packers are averaging only 15.0 points per game at home this season on 306.4 total yards and 4.9 yards per play. That's pretty damn pathetic for a home team. The Vikings are allowing only 17.4 points per game on the road this season and they have done it by allowing only 231.9 total yards and only 4.3 yards per play. This has to be one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL by far. On the ground, Green Bay's success usually revolves around their running attack of RB Ahman Green. The Packers average a nice 4.6 yards per carry at home but Minnesota has the best run defense the NFL has seen in maybe 30 years as they allow only 52.9 rushing yards per game on 2.4 yards per carry away from home. In the air, Brett Favre has completed a pathetic 53.5% of his passes at home for only 5.1 yards per pass attempt while throwing only 6 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions at Lambeau. Minnesota's pass defense has allowed only 5.6 yards per pass attempt this season and they have made some big plays that have kept this team in games. The Vikings have 10 interceptions on the road this season and much like the Packers, have a great pass rush. Brett Favre is going to be a lot more susceptible to the sack tonight and I see the Vikes forcing him into tons of mistakes. The Vikings have recovered at least one fumble per road game this season and their Red Zone defense on the road is one of the best in the NFL as they allow only 26.7% touchdowns once inside the Red Zone on the road. Minnesota also has a huge advantage in the Special Teams play tonight and I think the Packers go down hard.
What do you do when a game is meaningless (well both teams can technically make it but cmon)? It's not easy but you pretty much look at who is playing for next season and who really doesn't give much of damn if they win or lose. That's what makes it even thougher because Minnesota and QB Tavaris Jackson are playing for next season while the Green Bay Packers are not playing for anything but when was the last time you saw Brett Favre play for nothing? The guy is always up to the task no matter how shot the season is which is why Green Bay is an intriguing bet for many. However, Minnesota has been the overall better team this season and a mid-season collapse is probably the only reason they are not fighting for a playoff spot in this game. Thier victories have been more convincing than Green Bay's and I think the Vikings have more to prove on National TV. Revenge alone is something to play for and so is a small chance at the playoffs.
Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 versus the NFC North.
Formula Advantage: Minnesota +8.49
Minnesota 21, Green Bay 9
:cheers:
