MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 17-12-2 (+105.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 17-12-2 (+105.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Last Week: 2-1 ATS (-50.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Sunday, November 4
Buffalo Bills +1 (25 Units)
The Cincinnati Bengals are probably due for a big time breakout game this season seeing how they are 2-5 on the year and with every week that passes so do their slim chances of making the playoffs. The Bengals are coming off yet another loss last week this time to the Pittsrbugh Steelers, a game where their once potent offense looked like crap and a game where they were outyarded by almost 100 yards. The Bengals have yet to show they can compete on the road this season as they are 0-3 straight up away from home and 1-2 ATS in those games. In their first road game of the season the Bengals lost by 6 in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> as 7 point road favorite. In their second away game of the season the Bengals went to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City>, competed hard but lost 24-21 covering the +3.5 spread as road underdogs. In their latest road game the Bengals went to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas City</st1lace></st1:City> as road favorites once again but lost to a very good home team 27-20. So it does look like they are due for this week but I don't see it happening in Ralph Wilson Stadium. It's not a secret that the Bengals can move the ball at will and score a bunch of points whenever they want so you can expect a lot more from them this week than in weeks past against a Bills defense that usually bends but doesn't break. The Bengals come into this game averaging 23.7 points per game in their last three games as they have done that by averaging 354.7 total yards of offense per game on 6.1 yards per play. The Bills defense has done a great job the last three games as they have allowed only 14.0 points per game in those games and allowed only 315.7 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB Rudi Johnson is back from injury and ready to take control of this running attack. The problem with that is that a) he is rusty, b) the Bengals were fine without him and c) without him they have averaged 115.3 rushing yards per game the last three games for 4.3 yards per carry. The Bills defense has allowed 101.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 4.4 yards per carry so it will be interesting to see how much Johnson gets the ball. In the air, QB Carson Palmer has completed 66.3% of his passes the last three games for 7.6 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 89.7. However, the Bills secondary is getting better by the week and their last three opponents have completed only 57.1% of their passes for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt and going deep on the Bills is tough with guys like McGee and Whitner. Palmer has thrown 3 interceptions in his last three games which is good news because the Bills have 7 interceptions in their last three games and can really make Palmer uncomfortable in this one. The key to this defense will be what they do in the Redzone. We all know <st1:City w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:City> is going to move the ball well all afternoon but <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> has allowed touchdowns in the Redzone only 25.0% of the time the last three games compared the 42.3% of the time the rest of the season. If they can hold the Bengals to Field Goal attempts in this game, they should have a big time chance of getting things done on offense. On top of the 7 interceptions the last three games, the Bills have also forced 7 fumbles in those games and recovered three of those fumbles.
The Buffalo Bills are on quite the roll and if you have been following this team closely like I do, you would know that right now they should be sitting at 5-2 on the season not 3-4. I say that because although they lost to <st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> and <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Denver</st1:City></st1lace> at home this season, both losses came with :01 on the clock (last second field goals in both cases) and the Bills should virtually have no losses at Ralph Wilson Stadium this season. Well that's not the case and the team has moved on but they do know that with a win today, they could be a very respectable 4-4 heading into their game with the Miami Dolphins next week and the playoffs are definitely not out of the question for these guys. As I mentioned before the Bills have looked pretty damn good at home this season almost beating Denver in their opener, then beating the Jets 17-14 as home underdogs, then losing that crazy ass game against Dallas on Monday Night and then following that up with a huge home win over the Ravens (19 points was the most any opponent scored on Baltimore all season). So the Bills are a perfect 4-0 ATS at home this season and I don't see why this should be any different as they are once again the underdogs at home (all five home games now). QB Trent Edwards (who is 3-1 as a starter) is out and JP Losman (0-3 as a starter) is in. The Bills come into this game averaging 18.7 points per game in their last three games as they have managed only 272.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and only 4.8 yards per play. However, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City>'s defenseis the weakest they have seen in a long time and they have allowed 27.3 points per game in their last three games for 362.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, rookie sensation RB Marshawn Lynch has led the team to 97.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.2 yards per carry but he should have another solid game in this one as the Bengals defense has allowed 121.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.9 yards per carry. In the air, QB JP Losman actually has a better QB Rating then Trent Edwards despite being winless on the season and I think the Bengals is the only team he is suited to beat. I say that because Losman has completed 63.5% of his passes this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception. The Bengals secondary has allowed their last three opponents to complete 69.6% of their passes for 7.8 yards per pass attempt which means that they are very weak against the deep pass. Well Losman is a deep ball specialist, Edwards is not, which is why I think Losman has one of the best game of his career here hitting guys deep all afternoon. The Bengals do have a good pass rush (8 sacks in their last three games) so Losman has to be smart about things and avoid big mistakes. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City>'s last three QB opponents have an average QB Rating of 109.0. What I really like about this Bills team is that they have turned the ball over only 3 times in the last three games with no fumbles and three interceptions. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City>'s defense doesn't have many playmakers on it (2 interceptions and 3 recovered fumbles the last three games) so things could be easier for the Bills. Opponents have converted 44.7% of their third down chances against Cincinnati the last three weeks and the Bengals have allowed touchdowns 50.0% of the times those opponents have entered the Redzone. The Bills should have no problems moving the ball and winning this game as one of the best home teams in the NFL this season.
You guys know the Bills are my team. I am not going to the game today (first home game I miss this season) because of some last minute change of plans but I have been dead on with all the Bills games I have capped this season. I have not lost one single time betting on the Bills and have a pretty good feel for how they are going to play each and every game. I am not a 'homer', I just have a good read on how my team is going perform. My initial analysis of this game called for the Bengals to win based solely on the fact that JP Losman was back in at starter for the Bills. I am not a fan of Losman's (Im an Edwards fan now) and don't agree with him getting another chance to start but Edwards is out for this week and this is JP's one and only chance to come out, play well and create a big QB controversy for the remainder of the season. He has been waiting for this for quite some time and I think he comes out motivated like crazy. Oddsmakers just don't understand this team do they? I mean they are 4-0 ATS at home, should be 4-0 straight up as well and they have been underdogs in all those games. So how are they still underdogs in this game again today? Either way, I am banking on Losman impressing us today and creating some sort of QB controversy in the process. Bills win.
Trend of the Game: <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> is 6-0 ATS in their last six home games as an underdog.
Buffalo 29, Cincinnati 13
ALSO BETTING:
New Orleans Saints -3 (5 Units)
San Diego Chargers -7 (10 Units)
New York Jets +3.5 (10 Units)
Indianapolis Colts +5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
My apologies for no writeups this morning, started doing them but realized I will simply run out of time and not worth taking a chance. So I posted the one I finished. I will be back with a huge SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL pick with full writeup. See you then.
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 17-12-2 (+105.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Last Week: 2-1 ATS (-50.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
---------------------------------
Sunday, November 4
Buffalo Bills +1 (25 Units)
The Cincinnati Bengals are probably due for a big time breakout game this season seeing how they are 2-5 on the year and with every week that passes so do their slim chances of making the playoffs. The Bengals are coming off yet another loss last week this time to the Pittsrbugh Steelers, a game where their once potent offense looked like crap and a game where they were outyarded by almost 100 yards. The Bengals have yet to show they can compete on the road this season as they are 0-3 straight up away from home and 1-2 ATS in those games. In their first road game of the season the Bengals lost by 6 in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City> as 7 point road favorite. In their second away game of the season the Bengals went to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City>, competed hard but lost 24-21 covering the +3.5 spread as road underdogs. In their latest road game the Bengals went to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas City</st1lace></st1:City> as road favorites once again but lost to a very good home team 27-20. So it does look like they are due for this week but I don't see it happening in Ralph Wilson Stadium. It's not a secret that the Bengals can move the ball at will and score a bunch of points whenever they want so you can expect a lot more from them this week than in weeks past against a Bills defense that usually bends but doesn't break. The Bengals come into this game averaging 23.7 points per game in their last three games as they have done that by averaging 354.7 total yards of offense per game on 6.1 yards per play. The Bills defense has done a great job the last three games as they have allowed only 14.0 points per game in those games and allowed only 315.7 total yards of offense per game on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB Rudi Johnson is back from injury and ready to take control of this running attack. The problem with that is that a) he is rusty, b) the Bengals were fine without him and c) without him they have averaged 115.3 rushing yards per game the last three games for 4.3 yards per carry. The Bills defense has allowed 101.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 4.4 yards per carry so it will be interesting to see how much Johnson gets the ball. In the air, QB Carson Palmer has completed 66.3% of his passes the last three games for 7.6 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of 89.7. However, the Bills secondary is getting better by the week and their last three opponents have completed only 57.1% of their passes for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt and going deep on the Bills is tough with guys like McGee and Whitner. Palmer has thrown 3 interceptions in his last three games which is good news because the Bills have 7 interceptions in their last three games and can really make Palmer uncomfortable in this one. The key to this defense will be what they do in the Redzone. We all know <st1:City w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:City> is going to move the ball well all afternoon but <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> has allowed touchdowns in the Redzone only 25.0% of the time the last three games compared the 42.3% of the time the rest of the season. If they can hold the Bengals to Field Goal attempts in this game, they should have a big time chance of getting things done on offense. On top of the 7 interceptions the last three games, the Bills have also forced 7 fumbles in those games and recovered three of those fumbles.The Buffalo Bills are on quite the roll and if you have been following this team closely like I do, you would know that right now they should be sitting at 5-2 on the season not 3-4. I say that because although they lost to <st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> and <st1
lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Denver</st1:City></st1lace> at home this season, both losses came with :01 on the clock (last second field goals in both cases) and the Bills should virtually have no losses at Ralph Wilson Stadium this season. Well that's not the case and the team has moved on but they do know that with a win today, they could be a very respectable 4-4 heading into their game with the Miami Dolphins next week and the playoffs are definitely not out of the question for these guys. As I mentioned before the Bills have looked pretty damn good at home this season almost beating Denver in their opener, then beating the Jets 17-14 as home underdogs, then losing that crazy ass game against Dallas on Monday Night and then following that up with a huge home win over the Ravens (19 points was the most any opponent scored on Baltimore all season). So the Bills are a perfect 4-0 ATS at home this season and I don't see why this should be any different as they are once again the underdogs at home (all five home games now). QB Trent Edwards (who is 3-1 as a starter) is out and JP Losman (0-3 as a starter) is in. The Bills come into this game averaging 18.7 points per game in their last three games as they have managed only 272.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and only 4.8 yards per play. However, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City>'s defenseis the weakest they have seen in a long time and they have allowed 27.3 points per game in their last three games for 362.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, rookie sensation RB Marshawn Lynch has led the team to 97.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.2 yards per carry but he should have another solid game in this one as the Bengals defense has allowed 121.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.9 yards per carry. In the air, QB JP Losman actually has a better QB Rating then Trent Edwards despite being winless on the season and I think the Bengals is the only team he is suited to beat. I say that because Losman has completed 63.5% of his passes this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception. The Bengals secondary has allowed their last three opponents to complete 69.6% of their passes for 7.8 yards per pass attempt which means that they are very weak against the deep pass. Well Losman is a deep ball specialist, Edwards is not, which is why I think Losman has one of the best game of his career here hitting guys deep all afternoon. The Bengals do have a good pass rush (8 sacks in their last three games) so Losman has to be smart about things and avoid big mistakes. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City>'s last three QB opponents have an average QB Rating of 109.0. What I really like about this Bills team is that they have turned the ball over only 3 times in the last three games with no fumbles and three interceptions. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1lace></st1:City>'s defense doesn't have many playmakers on it (2 interceptions and 3 recovered fumbles the last three games) so things could be easier for the Bills. Opponents have converted 44.7% of their third down chances against Cincinnati the last three weeks and the Bengals have allowed touchdowns 50.0% of the times those opponents have entered the Redzone. The Bills should have no problems moving the ball and winning this game as one of the best home teams in the NFL this season.You guys know the Bills are my team. I am not going to the game today (first home game I miss this season) because of some last minute change of plans but I have been dead on with all the Bills games I have capped this season. I have not lost one single time betting on the Bills and have a pretty good feel for how they are going to play each and every game. I am not a 'homer', I just have a good read on how my team is going perform. My initial analysis of this game called for the Bengals to win based solely on the fact that JP Losman was back in at starter for the Bills. I am not a fan of Losman's (Im an Edwards fan now) and don't agree with him getting another chance to start but Edwards is out for this week and this is JP's one and only chance to come out, play well and create a big QB controversy for the remainder of the season. He has been waiting for this for quite some time and I think he comes out motivated like crazy. Oddsmakers just don't understand this team do they? I mean they are 4-0 ATS at home, should be 4-0 straight up as well and they have been underdogs in all those games. So how are they still underdogs in this game again today? Either way, I am banking on Losman impressing us today and creating some sort of QB controversy in the process. Bills win.
Trend of the Game: <st1:City w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> is 6-0 ATS in their last six home games as an underdog.Buffalo 29, Cincinnati 13
ALSO BETTING:
New Orleans Saints -3 (5 Units)
San Diego Chargers -7 (10 Units)
New York Jets +3.5 (10 Units)
Indianapolis Colts +5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
My apologies for no writeups this morning, started doing them but realized I will simply run out of time and not worth taking a chance. So I posted the one I finished. I will be back with a huge SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL pick with full writeup. See you then.
