MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 22-14-2 (+139.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 22-14-2 (+139.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Last Week: 5-2 ATS (+34.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Sunday, November 11
Miami Dolphins +3 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Buffalo Bills are my pride and joy and as many of you already know, I am a hardcore fan with Bills season tickets. However. I am telling you guys right now that this is not the spot nor the Bills. I know these guys like the back of my hand and something is just not right here. You have th 4-4 Bills who have been knocking around opponents left and right the last four or five weeks going to Miami where they always have success and where the Dolphins have yet to win a game and the line is only -3? Lets face it guys, the Bills have been playing some of their best football in ages over the course of the last years but that can't last forever and there is a strong chance that things are going to go bad in this game. I know you guys won't believe me but QB JP Losman is a loser as in we lose more often than not when he is the starting QB. Take a look at his road starts this season. Losman was the starter against both Pittsburgh and New England and he looked like crap in both games. The injured Trent Edwards looked a million times more composed in his starts as he beat the Jets, almost beat the Cowboys, beat the Ravens and then beat the Jets again. Losman beat Cincinnati last week but who doesn't beat Cincinnati on the road anyways? The Bills come into this game averaging only 17.8 points per game this season and they have done that on only 275.1 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play in those games. Miami's defense has been garbage as they have allowed 30.5 points per game this season but that is mainly because their offense has been so ineffective. They have actually allowed less yards per game than the Bills as they allow 349.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.8 yards per play which is not that bad. On the ground, the Bills come into this game averaging only 109.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.8 yards per carry. RB Marshawn Lynch has been stud at times but the consistency is not there for the running game. Miami has allowed 160.5 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry so Lynch could have a huge game in a losing cause here. In the air, QB JP Losman has completed 66.3% of his passes this season for 663 passing yards, 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes (one of them intercepted but ran in anyways) and 2 interceptions. The Dolphins have allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.1% of their passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt which shoulod have Losman tempted as ever to make the long pass. I think the Dolphins are bound to start making big plays on defense this season as they have only 10 sacks on the season so far and only 4 interceptions. However, they have forced 12 fumbles on the season and have been aggressive at times. The biggest problem I have with the Bills offense away from home is that they scored a touchdown only 25.0% of the time while in the Red Zone this season which means they have settled either no points or FG attempts. Did you know that they have settled for 10 FG attempts in their last three games now and that eventually this is going to catch up to them. If you're gonna blowout the Dolphins, you have to be good on third downs but the Bills are only average as they have converted only 36.1% of their third down chances this season. All in all I think the Bills offense can show some life in this game but there is something wrong here and I think the Dolphins can actually make some stops, hold to Field Goals and score some points of their own. Despite all the bad things that have happened this season, Miami is ranked #6 in the NFL against the pass and that scares me against an unreliable QB like JP Losman. Sorry guys, going against you.
The Miami Dolphins are winless on the season and that is no secret. We all know they are 0-8 and we all know that they are not a good football team. We also know that their only RB Ronnie Brown is out for the season with an injury and that things have actually gone from bad to very bad in only a matter of a few weeks. However, I think we have to cut Miami somewhat of a break here guys. They are coming off a close loss in England against the New York Giants (a pretty damn good team and they lost by only 3 points while actually outyarding the Giants in that game) and they had to play both the Patriots and Browns in their two games before that. I am looking more at what the Dolphins have done within the AFC East this season because this is a divisional matchup and a lot of things happen in this rivalry games. Miami went to play in New York and lost to the Jets earlier this season by 3 points but they did manage to win the yardage battle by a whopping 168 yards in that game. In their only other divisional game this season, the Dolphins lost to New England at home but they did manage to score 28 points in that game and they lost the yardage battle by only 61 yards so I think they are in business coming into this game. The Dolphins come into this game averaging 20.8 points per game this season which is more than the Bills and they have done that on 323.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play on the season. Buffalo's defense has been outstanding the last few weeks but they have allowed 19.5 points per game on the season and they have allowed 370.9 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. Here is where I think this game is won. I know Ronnie Brown is out for the year but his backup RB Jesse Chatman has pretty much run just as well. Chatman if you don't remember played for San Diego in 2004-2005 where he rushed for 392 yards and 6.0 yards per carry. This season he has rushed for 196 yards but on an impressive 5.4 yards per carry. He is up against a very weak run defense that has allowed 115.4 rushing yards per game but on 4.4 yards per carry which is really going to allow Miami to do big things on the offensive side of things in this game. In the air, the Fins are once again turning to QB Cleo Lemon who has completed 58.4% of his passes this season for 5.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. Lemon could have one of his best games of the season as he goes up against a Bills defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 64.5% of their passes this season for 6.8 yards per pass attempt on the year. The Bills have only 3 sacks on the road in three games this season and Lemon should have plenty of time to go to work against this depleted and injured Bills secondary. Miami has actually been better than the Bills on third downs this season as they have converted 39.6% of their third down chances on the season and are up against a Bills team that has allowed opponents to convert 46.2% of the time on third down this season. I also think they Dolphins are much more effective in the Red Zone than the Bils which definitely counts for something because when you are playing against a bend but don't break defense like the Bills and you are converting 57.7% of your Red Zone chances into touchdowns on the year, you are going to have a great chance to win games. So despite Ronnie Brown being out for this game and despite Cleo Lemon getting yet another NFL start, there is hope in the Dolphins camp as they are coming off their BYE Week, should be well rested and should be pretty pumped up to finally win a game.
This one hurts guys. I bleed Buffalo Bills blue but for the first time this season I am going against my guys. I am 5-0 ATS betting on the Bills this season and it really pains me to go against them here because while cheering for them to win in my heart, I am going with the safe choice in my brain. Deep down inside I am hoping to God that the Bills win this game by 1 or 2 and that I can cash and still party the night away after the big win but I'm thinking more that the Dolphins actually win this game. There are a bunch of trends that point to the Bills winning and covering this game but watch out guys. If you like the Bills in this game you are only one of 70.0% that is betting on them and that is very bad news when a) that many people are trying to ride a hot ATS team, b) that many people like a short point road favorite and c) that many people like the Bills after going against them all season long. I am not saying that this is the biggest square play of the week but I am cautioning you guys that this is the kind of game that the Bills have always lost. Deep down inside I am kinda hoping they lose this game because I want to see QB Trent Edwards back as the starting QB next week against the Patriots and I want to see him in there for the next few years. Losman is just not a reliable guy to bet on and when he starts this season, the Bills are 2-2 ATS. When Edwards starts this season, the Bils are 4-0 ATS. So you figure out what is going on here. This is not the Bengals defense anymore and this is not Orchard Park. Losman and the Bills are in big trouble in this one. Do you remember the Dolphins being 1-6 last season heading into their BYE Week? Well I do and after that BYE WEEK, the Dolphins went 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS in the month of November. Also notice that the Bills have covered the spread mostly as underdogs this season.
Trend of the Game: Buffalo is 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games when favored by 0.5 to 3 points.
Miami 31, Buffalo 24
New York Giants +2 (25 Units)
The Dallas Cowboys have been a team that I have actually had a tough time reading the last two seasons. I have bet on or against them three times over the course of the last two seasons. The first time was in their big home win over the Colts last year where I just knew they were going to show up for that game and win while the others were when the Cowboys travelled to Buffalo for the Monday Nighter earlier this season and almost lost (I was on the Bills) and most recently last Sunday Night when I mad the huge mistake of going against them as they travelled to Philadelphia and blew the socks off the Eagles in that one. Well I am 2-1 ATS betting on them and ready to make it 3-1 ATS. The Cowboys come into this game with an impressive 7-1 record on the year. The only problem here for them is that this is a divisional rivalry game and the Cowboys already spanked the Giants earlier this season for a 45-35 win. The other issue I have is that they have to play their second in division game of the last two weeks and that is very tough to do. The Cowboys struggled the most this season when they played against the Patriots as they had their worst yardage deficit of the season. Their second worst yardgage deficit was against the Giants in Week 1 where they won by only 40 yards (compared to the 100+ in their last five wins). The Cowboys are an impressive 3-1 ATS on the road their opponents have been the Bills, Dolphins, Bears and Eagles. This is the G-Men baby! The Cowboys come into this game averaging 33.1 points per game on the season which is pretty damn impressive as they also average 405.8 total yards of offense per game this season on 6.7 yards per play in those games. The Giants defense has been equally impressive this season depsite allowing 45 points against the Cowboys week 1 and they are allowing only 19.9 points per game this season on 297.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Cowboys have one of the most potent rushing attacks with RBs Marion Barber and Julius Jones who have led this team to an impressive 127.6 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. The Giants have actually done a good job against the run this seaosn allowing only 99.8 rushing yards per game this season on 4.1 yards per carry and I really don't think Jones and Barber are going to have as much as success running the ball as they did in the first meeting. In the air, QB Tony Romo has been outstanding again this season completing 64.4% of his passes on the year for 2308 passing yards, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, 19 toudhdown passes but 10 interceptions and a 100.4 QB Rating on the year. The Giants defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 57.0% of their passes this season for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt which means they can slow the tempo down and force the Cowboys out of their offensive groove. The offensive line has been good for Dallas this season as they have allowed only 1.4 sacks per game but the Giants are improving on the pass rush by the week and now have 28 sacks in eight games this season and I think Romo is going to see the kind of pressure like he has not seen in weeks which should throw him off his game. He has thrown 10 interceptions on the season and the Giants average at least one interception per game this season. The Giants opposing QBs this season have an average QB Rating of only 76.5 so eight weeks after seeing the Cowboys the first time, I think this Giants defense has made huge strides since then and I think they are going to come up with some huge plays in this game. Dallas has been one of the best teams in the NFL on third down converting 49.0% of them this season but NOT SO FAST! The Giants have allowed opponents to convert only 40.7% of their third down chances and again they are primed to make big plays in this game. While Romo and the offense are feeling good about themselves and what they did last week, this could be a much tougher week for them because this is hostile territory and this game means so much to both teams in their quest for the playoffs. The Giants defense is going to make huge plays in this game.
The New York Giants are coming off their BYE WEEK and you guys know how much I like that in a home team. Much like the Cowboys have been very good on the road this season, the Giants have been a much better home team than road team as they are 3-1 ATS and SU at home. The G-Men are coming off the BYE WEEK but also coming off their trip to London England two weeks ago where they showed up, played and beat the Dolphins before heading back home and getting ready for this game. At first I thought this could throw them off a bit but if anything I think it made this team a lot closer as a team and we saw that last week in Michael Strahan's personal home video of what all the players did together while in London. It looked like one hell of a team bonding experience and I think the Giants are going to go on a tear in the month of November. It has to be tough to back a team that lost 35-13 at home to Green Bay earlier in the season but as I talked about earlier, the Giants actually didn't figure things out until the week after that where the beat Washington on the road and have not lost a game since then. They have since hosted the Eagles, Niners and Jets scoring a combined 84 points in those three home games while winning by an average margin of 14 points per game. I also want to point out that since losing to Dallas and Green Bay and being outyarded by 40 yards in both games, the Giants have not been outyarded since until the game against the Dolphins but that was a gimme as they were looking forward to this game. The Giants come into this game averaging 25.0 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 334.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.4 yards per play in those games. Sure that's nothing compared to what Dallas can do on the offensive side of things but the Giants are getting there. Dallas has allowed 21.9 points per game on the season and in those games they have allowed only 298.4 total yards of offense per game and only 5.0 yards per play. Believe it or not the Giants actually have a more dangerous running game than the Cowboys as they average 137.8 rushing yards per game this season on 4.6 yards per carry and are led by Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward who have combined for 5.0 yards per carry this season, 898 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. Dallas has been stingy against the run as they are ranked #5 in the NFL against the run but they still allow 3.6 yards per carry this season and if the Giants can establish a running game early in this game, they'll have a lot more success working off play action and making some huge plays. Derrick Ward demolished the Cowboys on the ground in the first meeting averaging 6.9 yards per carry on 13 carries and a 44 yard run. In the air, QB Eli Manning has generally had success in his career at home against the Cowboys (a bit more about that later) and he is completing 58.2% of his passes this season for 1584 passing yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 13 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. Again that's nothing like his brother but Eli is effective. He is up against a Dallas defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 58.1% of their passes this season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt which seems to work in the favor of the Giants because they have won with shorter yardage passing this season and have been able to throw deep on more than one occasion with a succesful running attack to soften the secondary up. Dallas has a good pass rush but it's nothing like the Giants pass rush and the G-Men's offensive line has been better than the Cowboys' as they have allowed only 9 sacks in eight games this season so Manning is going to have plenty of time to move those chains and be effective here. The key is for Manning to stay controlled and not make bad throws against a defense that has 12 interceptions on the season. I really like how disciplined the Giants have been this season (that was a big problem last year) as they have taken only 5.1 penalties per game while Dallas is taking 7.0 penalties per game. The Giants can be just as effective as the Cowboys on third downs and they have done a great job converting 43.7% of the time this season. R.W. McQuarters could be the x-factor in this game. When he played for the Bears back in 2003-2004 and 2004-2005, he had two touchdown punt returns and averaged 11.1 yards per punt return in both seasons combined. Well Dallas has allowed 14.5 yards per punt return this season and if there is a chance that he returns his first touchdown off a punt return in three years here. I like the Giants offense and I really like what their defense has done since the first few weeks of the season. The G-Men are definitely the play right here.
Don't be fooled by what you saw two weeks ago by the Giants in London, England. That was just weird situation to be put in and I think what the G-Men really wanted to do was show up, play the game, win the game, go home and get ready for this big game so you have to excuse their 3 point win over the Dolphins. What's funny about these two teams is that they have two of the worst rankings when it comes to strength of schedule compared to other TOP 10 teams in the NFL. I mean the Giants have not played a valid opponent since their losses to Green Bay and Dallas while the Cowboys have played against only New England and the Giants this season and every other team is not a TOP 10 team and not worth mentioning here. To be fair to the Giants they have actually faced three teams ranked in my TOP 10 in the NFL and I think you have to consider their win over the Washington Redskins as something worthy of noting since it came on the road and the Skins are not that bad of a team this year. Dallas is probably the third best team in the NFL right now but the Giants are almost just as good and the Giants are playing with revenge on their minds and now have the home advantage that they did not have in the first week of the season. They have also come a long way since allowing 30+ points in their first two games of the season having held all but one of their opponents since to less than 20 points per game. Eli Manning is 2-1 at home in his career against Dallas with the only loss coming late in the season last year on a 23-20 loss at home. The Giants are not about to lose three straight games to the Cowboys and they are about to make things a lot closer in this division.
Trend of the Game: Dallas is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games when favored by 0.5 to 3.0 points.
NY Giants 28, Dallas 24
***GOOD LUCK TO ALL TODAY! I WILL BE BACK WITH A BIG PLAY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT 1 HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF!
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 22-14-2 (+139.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Last Week: 5-2 ATS (+34.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
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Sunday, November 11
Miami Dolphins +3 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Buffalo Bills are my pride and joy and as many of you already know, I am a hardcore fan with Bills season tickets. However. I am telling you guys right now that this is not the spot nor the Bills. I know these guys like the back of my hand and something is just not right here. You have th 4-4 Bills who have been knocking around opponents left and right the last four or five weeks going to Miami where they always have success and where the Dolphins have yet to win a game and the line is only -3? Lets face it guys, the Bills have been playing some of their best football in ages over the course of the last years but that can't last forever and there is a strong chance that things are going to go bad in this game. I know you guys won't believe me but QB JP Losman is a loser as in we lose more often than not when he is the starting QB. Take a look at his road starts this season. Losman was the starter against both Pittsburgh and New England and he looked like crap in both games. The injured Trent Edwards looked a million times more composed in his starts as he beat the Jets, almost beat the Cowboys, beat the Ravens and then beat the Jets again. Losman beat Cincinnati last week but who doesn't beat Cincinnati on the road anyways? The Bills come into this game averaging only 17.8 points per game this season and they have done that on only 275.1 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play in those games. Miami's defense has been garbage as they have allowed 30.5 points per game this season but that is mainly because their offense has been so ineffective. They have actually allowed less yards per game than the Bills as they allow 349.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.8 yards per play which is not that bad. On the ground, the Bills come into this game averaging only 109.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.8 yards per carry. RB Marshawn Lynch has been stud at times but the consistency is not there for the running game. Miami has allowed 160.5 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry so Lynch could have a huge game in a losing cause here. In the air, QB JP Losman has completed 66.3% of his passes this season for 663 passing yards, 7.7 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes (one of them intercepted but ran in anyways) and 2 interceptions. The Dolphins have allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.1% of their passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt which shoulod have Losman tempted as ever to make the long pass. I think the Dolphins are bound to start making big plays on defense this season as they have only 10 sacks on the season so far and only 4 interceptions. However, they have forced 12 fumbles on the season and have been aggressive at times. The biggest problem I have with the Bills offense away from home is that they scored a touchdown only 25.0% of the time while in the Red Zone this season which means they have settled either no points or FG attempts. Did you know that they have settled for 10 FG attempts in their last three games now and that eventually this is going to catch up to them. If you're gonna blowout the Dolphins, you have to be good on third downs but the Bills are only average as they have converted only 36.1% of their third down chances this season. All in all I think the Bills offense can show some life in this game but there is something wrong here and I think the Dolphins can actually make some stops, hold to Field Goals and score some points of their own. Despite all the bad things that have happened this season, Miami is ranked #6 in the NFL against the pass and that scares me against an unreliable QB like JP Losman. Sorry guys, going against you.
The Miami Dolphins are winless on the season and that is no secret. We all know they are 0-8 and we all know that they are not a good football team. We also know that their only RB Ronnie Brown is out for the season with an injury and that things have actually gone from bad to very bad in only a matter of a few weeks. However, I think we have to cut Miami somewhat of a break here guys. They are coming off a close loss in England against the New York Giants (a pretty damn good team and they lost by only 3 points while actually outyarding the Giants in that game) and they had to play both the Patriots and Browns in their two games before that. I am looking more at what the Dolphins have done within the AFC East this season because this is a divisional matchup and a lot of things happen in this rivalry games. Miami went to play in New York and lost to the Jets earlier this season by 3 points but they did manage to win the yardage battle by a whopping 168 yards in that game. In their only other divisional game this season, the Dolphins lost to New England at home but they did manage to score 28 points in that game and they lost the yardage battle by only 61 yards so I think they are in business coming into this game. The Dolphins come into this game averaging 20.8 points per game this season which is more than the Bills and they have done that on 323.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play on the season. Buffalo's defense has been outstanding the last few weeks but they have allowed 19.5 points per game on the season and they have allowed 370.9 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. Here is where I think this game is won. I know Ronnie Brown is out for the year but his backup RB Jesse Chatman has pretty much run just as well. Chatman if you don't remember played for San Diego in 2004-2005 where he rushed for 392 yards and 6.0 yards per carry. This season he has rushed for 196 yards but on an impressive 5.4 yards per carry. He is up against a very weak run defense that has allowed 115.4 rushing yards per game but on 4.4 yards per carry which is really going to allow Miami to do big things on the offensive side of things in this game. In the air, the Fins are once again turning to QB Cleo Lemon who has completed 58.4% of his passes this season for 5.8 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. Lemon could have one of his best games of the season as he goes up against a Bills defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 64.5% of their passes this season for 6.8 yards per pass attempt on the year. The Bills have only 3 sacks on the road in three games this season and Lemon should have plenty of time to go to work against this depleted and injured Bills secondary. Miami has actually been better than the Bills on third downs this season as they have converted 39.6% of their third down chances on the season and are up against a Bills team that has allowed opponents to convert 46.2% of the time on third down this season. I also think they Dolphins are much more effective in the Red Zone than the Bils which definitely counts for something because when you are playing against a bend but don't break defense like the Bills and you are converting 57.7% of your Red Zone chances into touchdowns on the year, you are going to have a great chance to win games. So despite Ronnie Brown being out for this game and despite Cleo Lemon getting yet another NFL start, there is hope in the Dolphins camp as they are coming off their BYE Week, should be well rested and should be pretty pumped up to finally win a game.
This one hurts guys. I bleed Buffalo Bills blue but for the first time this season I am going against my guys. I am 5-0 ATS betting on the Bills this season and it really pains me to go against them here because while cheering for them to win in my heart, I am going with the safe choice in my brain. Deep down inside I am hoping to God that the Bills win this game by 1 or 2 and that I can cash and still party the night away after the big win but I'm thinking more that the Dolphins actually win this game. There are a bunch of trends that point to the Bills winning and covering this game but watch out guys. If you like the Bills in this game you are only one of 70.0% that is betting on them and that is very bad news when a) that many people are trying to ride a hot ATS team, b) that many people like a short point road favorite and c) that many people like the Bills after going against them all season long. I am not saying that this is the biggest square play of the week but I am cautioning you guys that this is the kind of game that the Bills have always lost. Deep down inside I am kinda hoping they lose this game because I want to see QB Trent Edwards back as the starting QB next week against the Patriots and I want to see him in there for the next few years. Losman is just not a reliable guy to bet on and when he starts this season, the Bills are 2-2 ATS. When Edwards starts this season, the Bils are 4-0 ATS. So you figure out what is going on here. This is not the Bengals defense anymore and this is not Orchard Park. Losman and the Bills are in big trouble in this one. Do you remember the Dolphins being 1-6 last season heading into their BYE Week? Well I do and after that BYE WEEK, the Dolphins went 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS in the month of November. Also notice that the Bills have covered the spread mostly as underdogs this season.
Trend of the Game: Buffalo is 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games when favored by 0.5 to 3 points.
Miami 31, Buffalo 24
New York Giants +2 (25 Units)
The Dallas Cowboys have been a team that I have actually had a tough time reading the last two seasons. I have bet on or against them three times over the course of the last two seasons. The first time was in their big home win over the Colts last year where I just knew they were going to show up for that game and win while the others were when the Cowboys travelled to Buffalo for the Monday Nighter earlier this season and almost lost (I was on the Bills) and most recently last Sunday Night when I mad the huge mistake of going against them as they travelled to Philadelphia and blew the socks off the Eagles in that one. Well I am 2-1 ATS betting on them and ready to make it 3-1 ATS. The Cowboys come into this game with an impressive 7-1 record on the year. The only problem here for them is that this is a divisional rivalry game and the Cowboys already spanked the Giants earlier this season for a 45-35 win. The other issue I have is that they have to play their second in division game of the last two weeks and that is very tough to do. The Cowboys struggled the most this season when they played against the Patriots as they had their worst yardage deficit of the season. Their second worst yardgage deficit was against the Giants in Week 1 where they won by only 40 yards (compared to the 100+ in their last five wins). The Cowboys are an impressive 3-1 ATS on the road their opponents have been the Bills, Dolphins, Bears and Eagles. This is the G-Men baby! The Cowboys come into this game averaging 33.1 points per game on the season which is pretty damn impressive as they also average 405.8 total yards of offense per game this season on 6.7 yards per play in those games. The Giants defense has been equally impressive this season depsite allowing 45 points against the Cowboys week 1 and they are allowing only 19.9 points per game this season on 297.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Cowboys have one of the most potent rushing attacks with RBs Marion Barber and Julius Jones who have led this team to an impressive 127.6 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. The Giants have actually done a good job against the run this seaosn allowing only 99.8 rushing yards per game this season on 4.1 yards per carry and I really don't think Jones and Barber are going to have as much as success running the ball as they did in the first meeting. In the air, QB Tony Romo has been outstanding again this season completing 64.4% of his passes on the year for 2308 passing yards, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, 19 toudhdown passes but 10 interceptions and a 100.4 QB Rating on the year. The Giants defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 57.0% of their passes this season for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt which means they can slow the tempo down and force the Cowboys out of their offensive groove. The offensive line has been good for Dallas this season as they have allowed only 1.4 sacks per game but the Giants are improving on the pass rush by the week and now have 28 sacks in eight games this season and I think Romo is going to see the kind of pressure like he has not seen in weeks which should throw him off his game. He has thrown 10 interceptions on the season and the Giants average at least one interception per game this season. The Giants opposing QBs this season have an average QB Rating of only 76.5 so eight weeks after seeing the Cowboys the first time, I think this Giants defense has made huge strides since then and I think they are going to come up with some huge plays in this game. Dallas has been one of the best teams in the NFL on third down converting 49.0% of them this season but NOT SO FAST! The Giants have allowed opponents to convert only 40.7% of their third down chances and again they are primed to make big plays in this game. While Romo and the offense are feeling good about themselves and what they did last week, this could be a much tougher week for them because this is hostile territory and this game means so much to both teams in their quest for the playoffs. The Giants defense is going to make huge plays in this game.
The New York Giants are coming off their BYE WEEK and you guys know how much I like that in a home team. Much like the Cowboys have been very good on the road this season, the Giants have been a much better home team than road team as they are 3-1 ATS and SU at home. The G-Men are coming off the BYE WEEK but also coming off their trip to London England two weeks ago where they showed up, played and beat the Dolphins before heading back home and getting ready for this game. At first I thought this could throw them off a bit but if anything I think it made this team a lot closer as a team and we saw that last week in Michael Strahan's personal home video of what all the players did together while in London. It looked like one hell of a team bonding experience and I think the Giants are going to go on a tear in the month of November. It has to be tough to back a team that lost 35-13 at home to Green Bay earlier in the season but as I talked about earlier, the Giants actually didn't figure things out until the week after that where the beat Washington on the road and have not lost a game since then. They have since hosted the Eagles, Niners and Jets scoring a combined 84 points in those three home games while winning by an average margin of 14 points per game. I also want to point out that since losing to Dallas and Green Bay and being outyarded by 40 yards in both games, the Giants have not been outyarded since until the game against the Dolphins but that was a gimme as they were looking forward to this game. The Giants come into this game averaging 25.0 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 334.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.4 yards per play in those games. Sure that's nothing compared to what Dallas can do on the offensive side of things but the Giants are getting there. Dallas has allowed 21.9 points per game on the season and in those games they have allowed only 298.4 total yards of offense per game and only 5.0 yards per play. Believe it or not the Giants actually have a more dangerous running game than the Cowboys as they average 137.8 rushing yards per game this season on 4.6 yards per carry and are led by Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward who have combined for 5.0 yards per carry this season, 898 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. Dallas has been stingy against the run as they are ranked #5 in the NFL against the run but they still allow 3.6 yards per carry this season and if the Giants can establish a running game early in this game, they'll have a lot more success working off play action and making some huge plays. Derrick Ward demolished the Cowboys on the ground in the first meeting averaging 6.9 yards per carry on 13 carries and a 44 yard run. In the air, QB Eli Manning has generally had success in his career at home against the Cowboys (a bit more about that later) and he is completing 58.2% of his passes this season for 1584 passing yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 13 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. Again that's nothing like his brother but Eli is effective. He is up against a Dallas defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 58.1% of their passes this season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt which seems to work in the favor of the Giants because they have won with shorter yardage passing this season and have been able to throw deep on more than one occasion with a succesful running attack to soften the secondary up. Dallas has a good pass rush but it's nothing like the Giants pass rush and the G-Men's offensive line has been better than the Cowboys' as they have allowed only 9 sacks in eight games this season so Manning is going to have plenty of time to move those chains and be effective here. The key is for Manning to stay controlled and not make bad throws against a defense that has 12 interceptions on the season. I really like how disciplined the Giants have been this season (that was a big problem last year) as they have taken only 5.1 penalties per game while Dallas is taking 7.0 penalties per game. The Giants can be just as effective as the Cowboys on third downs and they have done a great job converting 43.7% of the time this season. R.W. McQuarters could be the x-factor in this game. When he played for the Bears back in 2003-2004 and 2004-2005, he had two touchdown punt returns and averaged 11.1 yards per punt return in both seasons combined. Well Dallas has allowed 14.5 yards per punt return this season and if there is a chance that he returns his first touchdown off a punt return in three years here. I like the Giants offense and I really like what their defense has done since the first few weeks of the season. The G-Men are definitely the play right here.
Don't be fooled by what you saw two weeks ago by the Giants in London, England. That was just weird situation to be put in and I think what the G-Men really wanted to do was show up, play the game, win the game, go home and get ready for this big game so you have to excuse their 3 point win over the Dolphins. What's funny about these two teams is that they have two of the worst rankings when it comes to strength of schedule compared to other TOP 10 teams in the NFL. I mean the Giants have not played a valid opponent since their losses to Green Bay and Dallas while the Cowboys have played against only New England and the Giants this season and every other team is not a TOP 10 team and not worth mentioning here. To be fair to the Giants they have actually faced three teams ranked in my TOP 10 in the NFL and I think you have to consider their win over the Washington Redskins as something worthy of noting since it came on the road and the Skins are not that bad of a team this year. Dallas is probably the third best team in the NFL right now but the Giants are almost just as good and the Giants are playing with revenge on their minds and now have the home advantage that they did not have in the first week of the season. They have also come a long way since allowing 30+ points in their first two games of the season having held all but one of their opponents since to less than 20 points per game. Eli Manning is 2-1 at home in his career against Dallas with the only loss coming late in the season last year on a 23-20 loss at home. The Giants are not about to lose three straight games to the Cowboys and they are about to make things a lot closer in this division.
Trend of the Game: Dallas is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games when favored by 0.5 to 3.0 points.
NY Giants 28, Dallas 24
***GOOD LUCK TO ALL TODAY! I WILL BE BACK WITH A BIG PLAY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT 1 HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF!
rayer
