MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 22-15-3 (+112.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 22-15-3 (+112.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Last Week: 5-2 ATS (+34.00 Units)
This Week: 0-1-1 ATS (-27.50 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
---------------------------------
Sunday, November 11
San Diego Chargers +3.5 (25 Units) ***UPSET PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Indianapolis Colts made me some big cash last week with their huge spread cover against the world dominating Patriots and although they did not win the game, they came close enough and played well enough leading most of the time. Having said that and knowing very well what they are capable of, I am fading them this week. You could look at it two ways guys. 1) The Colts could pissed after their first loss of the season and come out dropping bombs on the Chargers or the 2) the Colts could be really hungover from their loss last weekend having given it all they had. I think people tend to understimate how valuable WR Marvin Harrison is to Peyton Manning and this offense. You could tell just by watching the game last weekend that Manning was taking a lot more time to get rid of the ball and when under pressure, Manning did not have his Mr. Automatic. The two have such a connection that I understand Manning having problems getting this offense going. Harrison is out again tonight so expect the offense to be firing on 2-3 cylinders instead of all cylinders. The New England game was the first time all season that Indianapolis was outyarded in a game and that could give them some problems this week. The Colts come into this game averaging 28.0 points per game on the road this season and they have done that on 380.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per pass attempt which is a bit unsual for such a high powered offense. San Diego's defense has been awesome at home allowing only 14.3 points per game and allowing only 301.3 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Colts are really going to need RB Joseph Addai to carry the load if Manning is every going to get things going in the air. They average only 111.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.8 yards per carry and that can be a problem because San Diego's run defense at home has been deadly and they are allowing only 93.5 rushing yards per home game this season on only 3.5 yards per carry which is damn solid. That is going to force Manning to once again push things through the air in this one. Manning has completed only 61.4% of his passes on the road this season for 7.7 yards per pass attempt but a big chunk of those have been to Harrison who is out. The Chargers defense has allowed visiting opponents to complete 60.4% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt and they have kept opponents on a short leash in terms of long passes. I know Manning doesn't take many sacks but I am huge fan of the Chargers defensive line who now have 12 sacks in four home games this season and can make Mr. Manning do some stupid stuff like he did late in last week's game. As much as Manning doesn't throw interceptions or has not on the road (only 2 on the road), the Chargers have made some huge plays at home and have a whopping 9 interceptions in four home games. Quentin Jammer is out but that doesn't concern me too much...good teams can adjust. I know the Chargers have not faced many good teams at home but they held opposing QB's to an average QB Rating of only 60.6 which is amongst the best for NFL home teams. The Colts live and die by the third down as they have converted 50.0% of their third down chances on the road this season. However, they are going to have to find a way to get around a Chargers defense that has held visiting opponents to a 39.2% conversion rate at home. What I have been most impressed about is their Red Zone defense at home as opponents are coming out of the RZ with touchdowns only 20.0% of the time in this stadium this season. All in all, I don't think the Colts can do as much as they would like on the offensive side of things with Harrison out tonight. I really like the Chargers to bounce back from last week's embarassing effort and make some huge plays to come away with this game.
The San Diego Chargers are embarassed and they practiced all week knowing that they played one of their worst games as a team in a long time last week against Minnesota. The Chargers not only lost that game against a bad team that had no momentum whatsoever, they did it in shameful fashion by gettung blown out 35-17. There is no excuse for what happened and as much as people talk about the Colts boucing back this week, what is so encouraging for Indy to bounce back in this game anyways? They have injury issues and all while San Diego needs this game a lot more than the Colts do. The Chargers 4-4 on the season right now and currently sitting on that fragile bubble. This is their most important game of the season because other teams in the AFC moved to 5-4 today and they don't want to fall a game back. You don't have to be impressed with what the Chargers have done in their last two games at home because it was against Houston and Oakland but they went 2-0 in those games as 10+ point favorites and they showed how much they are going to dominate at home this season. The team that lost to New England, Green Bay and Kansas City is no longer around and even though it tried to pop its head out last week, the real Chargers are back and ready to make a run for the playoffs. The Chargers come into this game averaging 23.2 points per game at home this season and they have done that on only 298.8 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play, which is not all that impressive but I assume they can only get better. Indianapolis has allowed only 14.5 points per game on the road this season and they have been impressive in those games allowing only 271.5 total yards of offense and 4.3 yards per play. But again, I think this is a somewhat dejected team after last week's loss and what some call are a dethroning by the Patriots. On the ground, the Chargers are obviously dangerous with Tomlinson running the ball and they are averaging 131.3 rushing yards per game this season at home on 4.4 yards per carry which is pretty damn good. Indianapolis has been good against the run on the road allowing only 101.5 rushing yards per game this season for 3.7 yards per carry which is enough yards to assume LT can have some big yardage gains. In the air, QB Philip Rivers has completed 61.3% of his passes at home this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt and he is going up against Bob Sanders and a Colts secondary that has allowed their road opponents to complete 63.1% of their passes this season for 4.8 yards per pass attempt. This should be a good battle of good secondaries in this game as the Colts have 5 interceptions in four road games and Rivers tends to make mistakes when pressured which he will be as the Colts have 9 sacks in four road games. However that is not enough pressure to keep Rivers in a cage. Indianapolis has had problems stopping road opponents when it comes to third down conversions as those opponents have converted 45.6% of their third down chances on them this season. San Diego is pretty good Red Zone team at home as they have attempted only 5 field goals at home this season and have scored touchdowns 50.0% of the time when in the Red Zone this season at home. This is a huge game for the Chargers and I don't think they are going to disappoint the Sunday Night audience the way the Eagles did that to us last week. I am calling for the Chargers to win this game with some huge plays on offense.
I fell for the 'fade' the public angle last week when I picked Philadelphia to beat Dallas but that was a big mistake betting on a team that is not actually all that good. Well the Chargers are actually all that good and what people seem to forget is that they have now won three of their last five games and are coming off two big blowou wins at home where it seems like they play their best football. Think about the trap Vegas has set for you guys here. You have a Chargers team that is coming off a blowout loss against the Minnesota Vikings last week, the same Vikings that got blown out of the water by the Green Bay Packers this afternoon. You are telling me that the line is that low and that the public is not going to bite for the angle of 'bounce back' on the Colts? Of course they are. I think this is the most heavily bet public favorite this week and a lot of people who got bailed out last week by Dallas on Sunday Night, are coming into this game expecting the exact same thing from the Colts. I am big fan of the Chargers running game at home compared to the Colts running game on the road and I think the Chargers come out jacked up. Everyone keeps talking about the Colts using this as a bounce back game but I call it a hangover game from their DETHRONING last week and I am calling for the Chargers to be the ones who have the bounce back game. I am not going to go as far as calling Indy backers sheep but you guys are pretty close to it and I will post a picture of dolly the sheep when the Chargers win this game. This is one of the best underdog bets of the last five years we are talking about. Wake up and smell the roses.
Trend of the Game: San Diego is 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
San Diego 34, Indianapolis 16
<!-- / message -->
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 22-15-3 (+112.40 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
Last Week: 5-2 ATS (+34.00 Units)
This Week: 0-1-1 ATS (-27.50 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
---------------------------------
Sunday, November 11
San Diego Chargers +3.5 (25 Units) ***UPSET PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Indianapolis Colts made me some big cash last week with their huge spread cover against the world dominating Patriots and although they did not win the game, they came close enough and played well enough leading most of the time. Having said that and knowing very well what they are capable of, I am fading them this week. You could look at it two ways guys. 1) The Colts could pissed after their first loss of the season and come out dropping bombs on the Chargers or the 2) the Colts could be really hungover from their loss last weekend having given it all they had. I think people tend to understimate how valuable WR Marvin Harrison is to Peyton Manning and this offense. You could tell just by watching the game last weekend that Manning was taking a lot more time to get rid of the ball and when under pressure, Manning did not have his Mr. Automatic. The two have such a connection that I understand Manning having problems getting this offense going. Harrison is out again tonight so expect the offense to be firing on 2-3 cylinders instead of all cylinders. The New England game was the first time all season that Indianapolis was outyarded in a game and that could give them some problems this week. The Colts come into this game averaging 28.0 points per game on the road this season and they have done that on 380.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per pass attempt which is a bit unsual for such a high powered offense. San Diego's defense has been awesome at home allowing only 14.3 points per game and allowing only 301.3 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Colts are really going to need RB Joseph Addai to carry the load if Manning is every going to get things going in the air. They average only 111.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.8 yards per carry and that can be a problem because San Diego's run defense at home has been deadly and they are allowing only 93.5 rushing yards per home game this season on only 3.5 yards per carry which is damn solid. That is going to force Manning to once again push things through the air in this one. Manning has completed only 61.4% of his passes on the road this season for 7.7 yards per pass attempt but a big chunk of those have been to Harrison who is out. The Chargers defense has allowed visiting opponents to complete 60.4% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt and they have kept opponents on a short leash in terms of long passes. I know Manning doesn't take many sacks but I am huge fan of the Chargers defensive line who now have 12 sacks in four home games this season and can make Mr. Manning do some stupid stuff like he did late in last week's game. As much as Manning doesn't throw interceptions or has not on the road (only 2 on the road), the Chargers have made some huge plays at home and have a whopping 9 interceptions in four home games. Quentin Jammer is out but that doesn't concern me too much...good teams can adjust. I know the Chargers have not faced many good teams at home but they held opposing QB's to an average QB Rating of only 60.6 which is amongst the best for NFL home teams. The Colts live and die by the third down as they have converted 50.0% of their third down chances on the road this season. However, they are going to have to find a way to get around a Chargers defense that has held visiting opponents to a 39.2% conversion rate at home. What I have been most impressed about is their Red Zone defense at home as opponents are coming out of the RZ with touchdowns only 20.0% of the time in this stadium this season. All in all, I don't think the Colts can do as much as they would like on the offensive side of things with Harrison out tonight. I really like the Chargers to bounce back from last week's embarassing effort and make some huge plays to come away with this game.
The San Diego Chargers are embarassed and they practiced all week knowing that they played one of their worst games as a team in a long time last week against Minnesota. The Chargers not only lost that game against a bad team that had no momentum whatsoever, they did it in shameful fashion by gettung blown out 35-17. There is no excuse for what happened and as much as people talk about the Colts boucing back this week, what is so encouraging for Indy to bounce back in this game anyways? They have injury issues and all while San Diego needs this game a lot more than the Colts do. The Chargers 4-4 on the season right now and currently sitting on that fragile bubble. This is their most important game of the season because other teams in the AFC moved to 5-4 today and they don't want to fall a game back. You don't have to be impressed with what the Chargers have done in their last two games at home because it was against Houston and Oakland but they went 2-0 in those games as 10+ point favorites and they showed how much they are going to dominate at home this season. The team that lost to New England, Green Bay and Kansas City is no longer around and even though it tried to pop its head out last week, the real Chargers are back and ready to make a run for the playoffs. The Chargers come into this game averaging 23.2 points per game at home this season and they have done that on only 298.8 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play, which is not all that impressive but I assume they can only get better. Indianapolis has allowed only 14.5 points per game on the road this season and they have been impressive in those games allowing only 271.5 total yards of offense and 4.3 yards per play. But again, I think this is a somewhat dejected team after last week's loss and what some call are a dethroning by the Patriots. On the ground, the Chargers are obviously dangerous with Tomlinson running the ball and they are averaging 131.3 rushing yards per game this season at home on 4.4 yards per carry which is pretty damn good. Indianapolis has been good against the run on the road allowing only 101.5 rushing yards per game this season for 3.7 yards per carry which is enough yards to assume LT can have some big yardage gains. In the air, QB Philip Rivers has completed 61.3% of his passes at home this season for 6.3 yards per pass attempt and he is going up against Bob Sanders and a Colts secondary that has allowed their road opponents to complete 63.1% of their passes this season for 4.8 yards per pass attempt. This should be a good battle of good secondaries in this game as the Colts have 5 interceptions in four road games and Rivers tends to make mistakes when pressured which he will be as the Colts have 9 sacks in four road games. However that is not enough pressure to keep Rivers in a cage. Indianapolis has had problems stopping road opponents when it comes to third down conversions as those opponents have converted 45.6% of their third down chances on them this season. San Diego is pretty good Red Zone team at home as they have attempted only 5 field goals at home this season and have scored touchdowns 50.0% of the time when in the Red Zone this season at home. This is a huge game for the Chargers and I don't think they are going to disappoint the Sunday Night audience the way the Eagles did that to us last week. I am calling for the Chargers to win this game with some huge plays on offense.
I fell for the 'fade' the public angle last week when I picked Philadelphia to beat Dallas but that was a big mistake betting on a team that is not actually all that good. Well the Chargers are actually all that good and what people seem to forget is that they have now won three of their last five games and are coming off two big blowou wins at home where it seems like they play their best football. Think about the trap Vegas has set for you guys here. You have a Chargers team that is coming off a blowout loss against the Minnesota Vikings last week, the same Vikings that got blown out of the water by the Green Bay Packers this afternoon. You are telling me that the line is that low and that the public is not going to bite for the angle of 'bounce back' on the Colts? Of course they are. I think this is the most heavily bet public favorite this week and a lot of people who got bailed out last week by Dallas on Sunday Night, are coming into this game expecting the exact same thing from the Colts. I am big fan of the Chargers running game at home compared to the Colts running game on the road and I think the Chargers come out jacked up. Everyone keeps talking about the Colts using this as a bounce back game but I call it a hangover game from their DETHRONING last week and I am calling for the Chargers to be the ones who have the bounce back game. I am not going to go as far as calling Indy backers sheep but you guys are pretty close to it and I will post a picture of dolly the sheep when the Chargers win this game. This is one of the best underdog bets of the last five years we are talking about. Wake up and smell the roses.
Trend of the Game: San Diego is 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
San Diego 34, Indianapolis 16
<!-- / message -->
